Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Dec 30, 2015 3:22:33 GMT -8
Good morning everyone. Markets are mixed this morning. AAPL is RED trading at 108.50 -0.24 (-0.22%). Max Pain slipped to $108 for this week. Hopefully it breaks as easily to the upside... Tomorrow, December 31, is a full day of trading. In the news: Reuters has Italy tax office reaches deal with Apple. Apple has reportedly agreed to pay Italy €318 million ($347.76 million) to settle their dispute. Cnet reports Apple has art tips for a budding Ansel Adams or Pablo Picasso. In-store workshops will teach consumers at all skill levels how to use a variety of apps to capture images more creatively. Not much else. Have a great day. Let's make money.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Dec 30, 2015 4:13:45 GMT -8
JD, do you really think Amazon will implode? I do. Their website is becoming cluttered, and there is completion all around. But Google, no. There are real ads on Youtube, and no one touches Google on search. Their moat is very wide I think. One can imagine Apple in trouble 10 years from now, but not Google. I'm curious if you have tried the alternatives, particularly DuckDuckGo? My perspective is that I used to use Google a lot, particularly for shopping. Google used to be a great tool to find the lowest price on a specific item. Google so corrupted the search experience that I rarely (can't remember the last time) use it for that any more. As to other routine searches, I switched to DuckDuckGo as my default as soon as that was possible. Cleaner experience without the 'paid prioritization'. Again I can't think of the last time I used Google. As to Amazon, some interesting change is occurring there as well. First, it used to be rare that a better 'delivered' price could be found elsewhere. This fueled the Amazons widespread adoption. Second as Google search to buy became less useful, Amazon expanded to include most everything making Amazon the goto site to find 'hard to find' items. Looking for Colloidal Silver? It's on Amazon. Unfortunately, Amazon has become ridiculously cluttered. Search for any item then sort by price low to high and see if the relevant item is still on the page... Hell, one could make a game of this -- where you win if it is! Finally, prices on Amazon have risen to the point that it is not difficult to find better prices elsewhere. Amongst the changes Amazon has reportedly implemented is an AI for pricing that adjusts prices based on supply and demand, flagging -x- high volume movers for 'lowest prices'. Finally, one now has to pay close attention to ensure you are even ordering from Amazon. All of these are issues can be corrected. Is it in either companies perceived interest to 'fix' them. In the case of Google, there has been a focus on monetizing the site. In the process they destroyed the benefit (credibility) of the site, at least with respect to shopping. In Amazon's case they're going in so many directions one wonders if anyone is paying attention to the user/purchaser experience. From my anecdotal evidence, it doesn't look like it. The last brings me back to Apple. I love seeing Apple push in new directions -- as long as the consistency and quality of the products is maintained. Again, anecdotally I am noticing inconsistencies creeping in. Anyone who has uses iMessage on all of Apple's platforms knows what I mean. Further products are stagnating as attention is focused elsewhere. The ship need to grow. We all expect it. But the management team needs to grow accordingly to accommodate it, particularly with regard to depth. As an example, Apple need's a Jony Ives for each major product group. There is not enough of any of them to go around. They all need to learn to delegate -- and if there is no one they can delegate to that is a problem. My two cents of 'free' advise to Apple this year.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Dec 30, 2015 4:26:59 GMT -8
Dan Ives of FBR Capital is on Bloomberg... Oh god. Can't decide who is worse, the Bloomberg hosts or Ives. "White knuckle period"
Ives wants to spend the cash...
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Post by tricouleur on Dec 30, 2015 5:49:07 GMT -8
Does anyone know the status of the Irish tax investigation of Apple? Last I read, it was being decided on early 2016. If the judgement falls against Apple, I fear the repercussions on AAPL will be significant. Especially in this climate.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Dec 30, 2015 6:06:40 GMT -8
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Post by rickag on Dec 30, 2015 6:10:29 GMT -8
Since84
Duck Duck Go for the win, I also use it close to 100% of the time.
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Post by longsince98 on Dec 30, 2015 6:20:26 GMT -8
Does anyone know if this has any implications for the Irish tax investigation? I'd be surprised to see such minimal market reaction, since it would seem the impact of this could be huge if other countries were to win similarly. When I think through it, I'm probably worrying for nothing, since the article stated that Apple settled on the (full) amount, which would contradict Apple's innocence stance on the Irish probe. Just looking for other opinions. Thanks
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Post by longsince98 on Dec 30, 2015 7:06:07 GMT -8
Does anyone know if this has any implications for the Irish tax investigation? I'd be surprised to see such minimal market reaction, since it would seem the impact of this could be huge if other countries were to win similarly. When I think through it, I'm probably worrying for nothing, since the article stated that Apple settled on the (full) amount, which would contradict Apple's innocence stance on the Irish probe. Just looking for other opinions. Thanks Done a bit of research and not found anything yet, so I'm doing some rough number crunching to estimate how big a potential problem this could be. If anyone could check my logic, I'd appreciate it. Back of the envelope: the EU's total population is 10X Italy's (12X for all of Europe), in which case, very simple math could make the total penalty for all EU from the 2008-2013 period about $3.5B? Obviously an oversimplification, but if that's roughly a valid case, then the whole shadow of the Irish tax probe is relatively mute, no?
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Post by hledgard on Dec 30, 2015 7:22:44 GMT -8
Thanks Since84. Great post !
I will try DuckDuckGo.
I do agree, Google is corrupting the search experience.
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 30, 2015 7:39:20 GMT -8
more info: Italian Tax Agency Reaches Deal With Apple--Update12-30-15 10:19 AM EST By Liam Moloney ROME--Italy's fiscal agency has reached an agreement with Apple Inc. over a dispute in which the U.S. company was accused of underpaying tax, three people familiar with the matter said Wednesday, in one of the biggest tax settlements in the country. Apple has agreed to pay around EUR318 million ($346.6 million) over a dispute in which the company allegedly failed to pay almost EUR900 million in taxes for the period 2008 to 2013, said a person familiar with the matter in Milan's prosecutors' office. The other two people didn't give details of the settlement that follows an investigation by the office. A spokesman for Italy's tax agency declined to comment or give any details of the case. A spokesman for the economy ministry also declined to comment. A spokeswoman for Apple didn't immediately comment. Italy's tax authorities have targeted Italian companies and multinationals operating locally for evading taxes, especially those using holding companies based in other countries, such as Luxembourg and Ireland, as they seek to repair public finances hit by a weak economy. Italy's corporate tax rates of nearly 30% has made it attractive for companies to set up offshore shell firms in other countries where the rates are much lower, if not close to zero. In the agreement with Apple, Italy's tax authorities, Agenzia delle Entrate, used documents prepared by the Milan prosecutors' investigation into the possible failure by the U.S. company to pay local corporate taxes, the person familiar with the matter said. news.morningstar.com/all/ViewNews.aspx?article=/DJ/TDJNDN201512304322_univ.xml
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Post by sponge on Dec 30, 2015 8:57:40 GMT -8
If we can get the $1 we are losing today back tomorrow, we will end flat YOY. Given the 5 months we have had, I can live with that.
Don't expect much of a run next week either. Should see some nice action in the week post OE.
I think what will surprise some on WS will be iPhone numbers, Apple Watch, and nice YOY growth overall. Remember last year we had no Apple Watch. That extra $3 billion will help offset further iPad contraction.
A nice upgrade to Apple Watch, a reduction in price for first generation, and a new iPhone, bodes well for strong guidance in 2nd quarter.
WS has to know this and will be slowly buying back before earnings. I don't think those who claimed lower iPhones will care about being wrong. They are making millions for their clients and once the stock takes off everything will b forgiven.
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Post by sponge on Dec 30, 2015 9:09:36 GMT -8
This is interesting 9to5mac.com/2015/12/30/oled-display-iphone-8-2018/Not only is Apple telling Samsung a head of time how many screens it needs in 2018, but also giving it money to build the factory. This tells me two things. Apple needs Samsung and does not care that they know. The final thought is that we are still many more years away from going thermonuclear on Google. We are still taking market share from them slowly in the mean time. It will be fun when Apple can start to get screens, batteries, memory, and processors, from a US based company and everyone will be shocked to see how much more advanced those phones will be. I give it another 7 years.
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Post by rickag on Dec 30, 2015 9:36:58 GMT -8
Will be interesting how this Italian Tax settlement plays out. Depending on the terms and using the reported Italian tax rate of 30%, it may be possible Apple could repatriate some profits and not owe any or very little US taxes since Apple should be able to count taxes paid to Italy against the U.S. rate of 35%.
Or I could completely misunderstand the U.S. corporate tax structure on profits earned overseas, since our US tax system is so simple and transparent.
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Post by BillH on Dec 30, 2015 12:12:11 GMT -8
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Post by longsince98 on Dec 30, 2015 12:59:03 GMT -8
I was able to hook up with my Merrill Lynch banker who spoke with their analysts (for what that's worth), who comfirmed essentially the above logic. Italy isn't quite related, and even in a worst case scenario, the Irish tax prob would result in a fine that's a drop in apples bucket.
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Post by tuffett on Dec 30, 2015 14:52:14 GMT -8
It will be fun when Apple can start to get screens, batteries, memory, and processors, from a US based company and everyone will be shocked to see how much more advanced those phones will be. I give it another 7 years. There is nothing inherently more advanced about the things you mention if they were produced in the US. In fact, the quality and efficiency of production is far higher in the east and showing no signs of changing. What you are saying makes very little sense.
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Dec 30, 2015 15:01:04 GMT -8
Random thoughts for 2016...
As the smartphone market saturates and overall growth slows, the importance of switchers increases; let's grease the axles a little:
"Hey Android user, Apple wants you to try iPhone for a change and see what you're missing.© For a limited time, turn in your Android phone at any Apple Store and get an instant $100 credit towards your new iPhone. Welcome to privacy, security, and Apple quality you can touch in 3D." Twinkle.
Rumor: Apple to license Duck Duck Go server software, plans to rewrite and open-source code in Swift. All new 'Spotlight Go' to be integrated into iOS 10.
(simulated rumor only)
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Post by hledgard on Dec 30, 2015 17:41:02 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 30, 2015 23:14:32 GMT -8
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Post by jmolloy on Dec 31, 2015 1:44:13 GMT -8
Unfortunately that's a fitbit surge.
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