Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 5, 2016 3:40:05 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 5, 2016 3:45:02 GMT -8
As an aside, one thing I pay attention to is FUD, particularly when I'm actively trading options. The presence or absence of FUD can be an indicator as to which way the Wall Street OverlordsTM are herding specific stocks.
In the last few days I've noticed a swing from AAPL negativity to FANG stock negativity, specifically Amazon and Google... and interesting market results yesterday.
Haven't 'called' it but worth paying attention to.
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Post by rickag on Jan 5, 2016 4:51:29 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 5, 2016 6:29:39 GMT -8
Pre-opening AAPL is looking good.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 5, 2016 6:32:41 GMT -8
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Post by mrentropy on Jan 5, 2016 6:49:16 GMT -8
Tuffet was right. Market up, AAPL down. Can't say I'm even a little surprised.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 5, 2016 7:15:25 GMT -8
Tuffet was right. Market up, AAPL down. Can't say I'm even a little surprised. Happens way too often. We need to get it out of our heads that a single strong day is a sign of a trend reversal. It simply isn't. It'll happen once but that's it. Sentiment is extremely bearish and one day does not change that. Of course, the day is young.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 5, 2016 7:35:51 GMT -8
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Post by sponge on Jan 5, 2016 7:52:18 GMT -8
If I am reading the OI correctly it looks like max pain for next week is 100.
Two more weeks of going nowhere. I may have to readjust my price target for day of earnings to 110.
I think the mass exit has spooked so many that only earnings can change the sentiment at this point.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 5, 2016 7:55:19 GMT -8
As usual, PED has some interesting charts and the right response to brainless FUD. “One of the big four will falter in 2016,” predicts Fred Wilson, one of New York’s most prominent venture capitalists (Twitter, Tumblr, Kickstarter, etc.), without specifying which four companies he means.
“My guess,” he says, “is Apple. They did not have a great year in 2015 and I’m thinking that it will get worse in 2016.”
PED: Huh?Apple's Bizarre Valuation: Something's Got to Give by Philip Elmer-DeWittfortune.com/2016/01/05/apple-valuation-cash-flow/?xid=yahoo_fortune
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Post by tuffett on Jan 5, 2016 8:00:13 GMT -8
I wouldn't pin too much hope on earnings. I'm confident top end guidance will be beaten but given the pessimism something will be spun and focused on as a sign that Apple is doomed.
1) iPhone sales are strong may mean Watch sales are "weak" - Apple is still completely reliant on iPhone which is about to peak - Apple is doomed
2) "Other" category is strong implying Watch sales are strong, but this may mean iPhone sales show very little growth - Apple is doomed
3) iPad sales continue to fall - Apple is completely reliant on iPhone and can't grow their other product lines - Apple is doomed
4) Blowout earnings on all metrics but relatively weak guidance for next quarter - earnings don't matter as the market is forward looking - slowing growth - Apple is doomed
5) Generally poor overall market sentiment - AAPL will track (or do worse than) the market downwards
Earnings is just another excuse to the move the stock, and it's more likely to move down than up given the current sentiment, no matter what the facts are.
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Post by sponge on Jan 5, 2016 9:11:41 GMT -8
We are catching up to tomorrow.
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Post by chasmac on Jan 5, 2016 9:13:42 GMT -8
If you think the noise over other technology changes was loud, you haven't heard anything until this comes to pass. IMO it will sooner rather than later. I imagine you'll see some cases with port changes. Thanks as always for the daily updates!
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Post by tuffett on Jan 5, 2016 9:17:42 GMT -8
This is hilarious...no words
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Post by rob_london on Jan 5, 2016 9:25:33 GMT -8
We are catching up to tomorrow. A surreal concept.
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Post by mrentropy on Jan 5, 2016 9:32:45 GMT -8
This is hilarious...no words More supply chain cut rumors. This one from Nikkei doesn't even bother with a source. It just states a 30% cut and overstuffed channel inventory as fact. So who is wrong? Will Apple finally miss its guidance or are rumors wrong? Will next quarter guidance be light as Tuffet suggests? Will iPhone 7 release early and cause an unseasonably early slowdown in existing iPhone sales? Will a meteor hit the earth? Will LA finally get a football team? All valid questions.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Jan 5, 2016 9:50:44 GMT -8
It is pretty much a given that if Apple fails to beat the YOY comparison the stock will drop like a stone. We have seen the fear of this impending doom hold the stock back for months. Given the laws of immutable logic, it occurs to me that a significant miss should imply that next year will be an easy YOY beat. Thus, if we come in 25% below guidance, I expect to see us jump to 150.
Sorta ridiculous, isn't it?
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Post by Zeke on Jan 5, 2016 11:58:55 GMT -8
People forget that last year was the introduction of the long delayed larger iPhone screens, creating an aberration in revenue and sales against which this year will be compared in YoY comparisons. I expect that all of this will even out eventually.
More puzzling is a reported 30% cut in projected iPhone orders for this quarter. Either sales are not going to meet Apple's own previous expectations, somebody has made a serious error in their attempts to predict Apple sales by watching the supply chain, or maybe Apple has made a decision to bring on the iPhone 7 earlier than originally planned. As always, remember the market will assume the worst possible scenario and then over-react.
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Post by macster on Jan 5, 2016 12:05:44 GMT -8
Is going out of business? Or are retail and institutions just trimming the overweight? Because of.................................................................................................
Rumors and Gossip
Bob Whipple, MBA, CPLP Rumors and gossip can be debilitating for any organization. They create a kind of parallel universe that siphons vital energy away from important work. They cause a need for leaders to do the same damage control they would do if the rumors were actually true. Reason: What people believe is reality to them. If many people in an organization believe there is going to be a cut in salary, even if that is not the case, the leader must do the damage control as if it was actually going to happen. In the hyper-competitive global marketplace, organizations cannot afford to cope with distracting ghosts born through the rumor mill.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 5, 2016 12:39:45 GMT -8
People forget that last year was the introduction of the long delayed larger iPhone screens, creating an aberration in revenue and sales against which this year will be compared in YoY comparisons. I expect that all of this will even out eventually. More puzzling is a reported 30% cut in projected iPhone orders for this quarter. Either sales are not going to meet Apple's own previous expectations, somebody has made a serious error in their attempts to predict Apple sales by watching the supply chain, or maybe Apple has made a decision to bring on the iPhone 7 earlier than originally planned. As always, remember the market will assume the worst possible scenario and then over-react. I read it that people take "supply chain data" as a tool to manipulate the stock in the way they want. Doesn't apple always reduce iPhone production quarter-to-quarter after the big Christmas quarter? Couldn't that be the change in orders that are being reported?
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Post by sponge on Jan 5, 2016 13:42:50 GMT -8
People forget that last year was the introduction of the long delayed larger iPhone screens, creating an aberration in revenue and sales against which this year will be compared in YoY comparisons. I expect that all of this will even out eventually. More puzzling is a reported 30% cut in projected iPhone orders for this quarter. Either sales are not going to meet Apple's own previous expectations, somebody has made a serious error in their attempts to predict Apple sales by watching the supply chain, or maybe Apple has made a decision to bring on the iPhone 7 earlier than originally planned. As always, remember the market will assume the worst possible scenario and then over-react. I read it that people take "supply chain data" as a tool to manipulate the stock in the way they want. Doesn't apple always reduce iPhone production quarter-to-quarter after the big Christmas quarter? Couldn't that be the change in orders that are being reported? My thoughts exactly. No way Apple over calculated demand by 30%. I am the bull and see a 22% reduction from 1st quarter. Someone in Japan is getting data that may seem accurate but does not reflect real world production. If Apple ordered enough parts in 1st quarter, they could decrease the order much more for 2nd quarter. What if they switched suppliers and ordered 30% from the one the report came out of? There are so many variables. Remember not one analysts was predicting more then 20% growth last year, and yet non of their sources indicated 45% growth Apple reported.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 5, 2016 14:07:51 GMT -8
Down big after hours too, nice. Test of $100 tomorrow.
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Post by hydrarx on Jan 5, 2016 18:18:25 GMT -8
I keep thinking "this is absurd, the market is irrational, this can't keep going lower, it's oversold, AAPL is making a killing selling its products!" yet lo and behold, it keeps dropping.
Too late for me to bail out my positions in AAPL now, I will take my chances and hold until April expiration or breakeven if we get to 124 before then (yeah....).
We have support at 100. After that....low 90s.
If we can break above and hold 105, there is light.
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Post by rezonate on Jan 5, 2016 18:35:40 GMT -8
Hold and it will come roaring back. There will be many more days for the Rally Monkey on AFB. I am watching for a ramp into January earnings, with a typical drop just after. Not backing up the truck, but maybe the hatchback, the next two weeks.
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Post by firestorm on Jan 5, 2016 18:49:56 GMT -8
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Post by bick on Jan 5, 2016 21:51:54 GMT -8
People forget that last year was the introduction of the long delayed larger iPhone screens, creating an aberration in revenue and sales against which this year will be compared in YoY comparisons. On the contrary. Investors know very well last year was special. This is why the stock has acted so poorly. There is fear that Apple may actually report lower YoY iPhone unit sales. While the 6s is an underwhelming upgrade compared to the 6, I think unit sales will be just fine. How the market reacts, however, is TBD.
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Post by rezonate on Jan 6, 2016 5:38:14 GMT -8
People forget that last year was the introduction of the long delayed larger iPhone screens, creating an aberration in revenue and sales against which this year will be compared in YoY comparisons. On the contrary. Investors know very well last year was special. This is why the stock has acted so poorly. There is fear that Apple may actually report lower YoY iPhone unit sales. While the 6s is an underwhelming upgrade compared to the 6, I think unit sales will be just fine. How the market reacts, however, is TBD. Looking back, this underscores the wisdom of Apple's launch and upgrade path. Release a new look (iPhone 6) to massive upgrades. Release a massive functional update (iPhone 6s) to incremental upgrades. The 6s owners show off all the new cool features to their 6-toting friends, who all say "I'll get all those features with the iPhone 7, and a new look!" And around and around we go.
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Post by Zeke on Jan 15, 2016 22:38:54 GMT -8
People forget that last year was the introduction of the long delayed larger iPhone screens, creating an aberration in revenue and sales against which this year will be compared in YoY comparisons. On the contrary. Investors know very well last year was special. This is why the stock has acted so poorly. There is fear that Apple may actually report lower YoY iPhone unit sales. While the 6s is an underwhelming upgrade compared to the 6, I think unit sales will be just fine. How the market reacts, however, is TBD. For the 15 years I've been invested in, and watching AAPL daily, I've been constantly amazed at how dense and slow on the uptake the general investing community actually is. I've had to learn not to react too swiftly whenI hear news that I know will affect the stock and should affect it immediately. It's often days or weeks, even months before the general investing public catches on. So no, that expectation is NOT baked in. There are NO allowances being made for last year's bubble in sales. Trust me on this.
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