Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 20, 2016 3:29:00 GMT -8
Good morning everyone. Opposites week -- yesterday morning looked great with everything GREEN, this morning sucks with everything RED as oil slides below $28. As I type the DOW is off over 300 points and AAPL is trading at $94.55 -2.11 (-2.18%). Not sure how a huge drop in energy costs cripples an economy but presumably brighter minds than mine see it differently. In the news: Apple seeks India government approval to set up retail stores. Stories at Cult of Mac, Apple Insider, CNN/Money, Reuters and others. We'll see where the day goes. Up would be nice. Have a great day. Let's make money.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 20, 2016 6:02:37 GMT -8
Evidently UBS has a "concerning" note out on Apple this morning wrt iPhone sales .... un-frigging-believable.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 20, 2016 6:23:21 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 20, 2016 6:28:24 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 20, 2016 6:50:20 GMT -8
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Post by tuffett on Jan 20, 2016 7:13:22 GMT -8
I think Apple needs to move up their BoD meeting and announce a $200B opportunistic buyback and doubling of their dividend on Tuesday.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Jan 20, 2016 7:39:25 GMT -8
I enjoy Neil's emails and would recommend them to anyone here. I find them intelligent, perceptive and a great antidote to the mindless drivel that passes for most Apple commentary.
His latest email talks about the need for the long view and how Apple is looking past the iPhone to the products that will dominate the next decade. Moving iPhone functions to the watch is a part of that. One point that he doesn't address, that I think is important, is the way that Apple fits into ubiquitous computing.
I believe that if you want to see where Apple is going, go back and look at what was happening at Xerox PARC back in 1980. It is still unbelievable to me that that group of people were so far ahead of the rest of the world. When Steve Jobs visited them, he saw, not just GUI interfaces, but Ethernet, laser printers, Object Oriented programming and the iPad. It must have been like stepping into a time machine.
I believe that much of Apples innovation has been bringing this work to the world successfully. Some of the work required infrastructure that wasn't in place. The Newton was an early attempt at the iPad, but there was no web. Early attempts at OOP failed because a world of programmers were so infatuated with C that they rejected Smalltalk and tried to duplicate it with C++. But the vision survived and it changed the world.
I mention this because there was another innovation at Xerox PARC that is seldom mentioned. Each employee had a badge that could be sensed by the room. The computers in a conference room could configure the computer with the files of those attending. I don't have the details of this capability, but it is the idea that i am concerned with.
We are moving toward a level of interconnectivity that will be far more than the web or social media. Imagine a not too distant future where everything around us knows we are there and acts accordingly. Your house configures itself to your preferences when you are home, the store you walk into knows you are there and changes advertising to feature products you like, and I am too limited to think of all the other ways that the world will actively engage us. But how does it know that we are there? The Watch. Rather than seeing the watch as a way that we access the world, think of the watch as the way that the world accesses us.
I think that this is the world that Apple is building toward. It is probably 10 years our before all the pieces are in place, but no one is better prepared to make it happen. No one else has the resources and vertical integration to create the hardware and software infrastructure that people will build on.
I am offering this today because it is easy to get discouraged when we see the traders ravage the stocks and watch our net worth crumble. It is a long game that requires patience and faith. Hang on
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Post by tuffett on Jan 20, 2016 7:49:02 GMT -8
We will likely have a single digit trailing P/E after earnings are announced...
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Post by sponge on Jan 20, 2016 7:56:24 GMT -8
We are now down 30% from Februray last year. It seems like WS now expects negative revenue and income growth.
This is starting to look like 2008-2009..
I guess if we don't drop below 92 we can consider today a victory. Hope we get all the scary cats out of the stock and work our way back in the next 6 months with serious long term investors.
The fact that TC has remained silent says a great deal about their confidence and taking advance of this sell off.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 20, 2016 7:56:33 GMT -8
Just as a thought exercise, if Apple had no dividend or buyback program, they'd have about $400B in cash at this moment. Current market cap is $518B. Would they be trading at 1.3x cash? Or 0.5x revenue ex-cash? It seemed like a good idea at the time, but I don't what to think anymore.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 20, 2016 8:03:26 GMT -8
Just as a thought exercise, if Apple had no dividend or buyback program, they'd have about $400B in cash at this moment. Current market cap is $518B. Would they be trading at 1.3x cash? Or 0.5x revenue ex-cash? It seemed like a good idea at the time, but I don't what to think anymore. That's what I've been saying. Buyback has been a waste - made the street value the cash on hand less, not more.
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Post by electrobuzz on Jan 20, 2016 8:11:45 GMT -8
I enjoy Neil's emails and would recommend them to anyone here. I find them intelligent, perceptive and a great antidote to the mindless drivel that passes for most Apple commentary. His latest email talks about the need for the long view and how Apple is looking past the iPhone to the products that will dominate the next decade. Moving iPhone functions to the watch is a part of that. One point that he doesn't address, that I think is important, is the way that Apple fits into ubiquitous computing. I believe that if you want to see where Apple is going, go back and look at what was happening at Xerox PARC back in 1980. It is still unbelievable to me that that group of people were so far ahead of the rest of the world. When Steve Jobs visited them, he saw, not just GUI interfaces, but Ethernet, laser printers, Object Oriented programming and the iPad. It must have been like stepping into a time machine. ..... My thoughts exactly. Couldn't have said it better. TouchID + Watch + iBeacons will open up a lot of new use cases like this. The iPhone will be the gateway that will enable this. Example: Imagine standing at a bus stop. Your watch communicates with the iBeacon there to know where you are exactly and what the bus schedule for that place is. Your iPhone can predict based on your calendar where you want to go and can tell you through your watch, your waiting time by pulling in real time data from the bus service provider based on the iBeacon id. For this to work seamlessly a lot infrastructure needs to be in place. We are slowly getting there with stuff happening in the IoT space. Once it is there, there is no other ecosystem that can deliver what Apple can bring to the market. I liked Neil's piece, but I don't think the iPhone can be replaced completely. People still need some kind of screen to look at (think Photos). my 2 cents...
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 20, 2016 8:15:04 GMT -8
I enjoy Neil's emails and would recommend them to anyone here. I find them intelligent, perceptive and a great antidote to the mindless drivel that passes for most Apple commentary. His latest email talks about the need for the long view and how Apple is looking past the iPhone to the products that will dominate the next decade. Moving iPhone functions to the watch is a part of that. One point that he doesn't address, that I think is important, is the way that Apple fits into ubiquitous computing. I believe that if you want to see where Apple is going, go back and look at what was happening at Xerox PARC back in 1980. It is still unbelievable to me that that group of people were so far ahead of the rest of the world. When Steve Jobs visited them, he saw, not just GUI interfaces, but Ethernet, laser printers, Object Oriented programming and the iPad. It must have been like stepping into a time machine. ..... My thoughts exactly. Couldn't have said it better. TouchID + Watch + iBeacons will open up a lot of new use cases like this. The iPhone will be the gateway that will enable this. Example: Imagine standing at a bus stop. Your watch communicates with the iBeacon there to know where you are exactly and what the bus schedule for that place is. Your iPhone can predict based on your calendar where you want to go and can tell you through your watch, your waiting time by pulling in real time data from the bus service provider based on the iBeacon id. For this to work seamlessly a lot infrastructure needs to be in place. We are slowly getting there with stuff happening in the IoT space. Once it is there, there is no other ecosystem that can deliver what Apple can bring to the market. I liked Neil's piece, but I don't think the iPhone can be replaced completely. People still need some kind of screen to look at (think Photos). my 2 cents... If this is indeed the direction Apple intends to go it is far far from being certain that they will succeed. I have immense confidence in Apples ability to design and build hardware, but they have been weaker in AI and cloud integration. Google, despite or maybe because of their intrusive creepiness, has done a lot better in terms of predictive UI and artificial intelligence. I am more confident in Apples ability to make an amazing car.
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Post by hydrarx on Jan 20, 2016 8:27:11 GMT -8
Well, bought a few 110 calls for next week @ 0.20. Any bounce from here should make those worthwhile, unless the market is really going to try fall under 92.
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Post by sponge on Jan 20, 2016 8:27:45 GMT -8
Just as a thought exercise, if Apple had no dividend or buyback program, they'd have about $400B in cash at this moment. Current market cap is $518B. Would they be trading at 1.3x cash? Or 0.5x revenue ex-cash? It seemed like a good idea at the time, but I don't what to think anymore. That's what I've been saying. Buyback has been a waste - made the street value the cash on hand less, not more. Yes it would appear that way today since we are lower in price then 3 years ago, but we must look 10 years into the future to see the impact. Apple believes in itself and is buying back in a structured manner with one hand tied behind their back (taxes in US). One day that huge cash pile can be brought back, but in the mean time they are buying 5% a year. At this rate they will be in a powerful position with more options in future years.
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Post by Volvocoupe on Jan 20, 2016 8:32:32 GMT -8
I enjoy Neil's emails and would recommend them to anyone here. I find them intelligent, perceptive and a great antidote to the mindless drivel that passes for most Apple commentary. His latest email talks about the need for the long view and how Apple is looking past the iPhone to the products that will dominate the next decade. Moving iPhone functions to the watch is a part of that. One point that he doesn't address, that I think is important, is the way that Apple fits into ubiquitous computing. I believe that if you want to see where Apple is going, go back and look at what was happening at Xerox PARC back in 1980. It is still unbelievable to me that that group of people were so far ahead of the rest of the world. When Steve Jobs visited them, he saw, not just GUI interfaces, but Ethernet, laser printers, Object Oriented programming and the iPad. It must have been like stepping into a time machine. I believe that much of Apples innovation has been bringing this work to the world successfully. Some of the work required infrastructure that wasn't in place. The Newton was an early attempt at the iPad, but there was no web. Early attempts at OOP failed because a world of programmers were so infatuated with C that they rejected Smalltalk and tried to duplicate it with C++. But the vision survived and it changed the world. I mention this because there was another innovation at Xerox PARC that is seldom mentioned. Each employee had a badge that could be sensed by the room. The computers in a conference room could configure the computer with the files of those attending. I don't have the details of this capability, but it is the idea that i am concerned with. We are moving toward a level of interconnectivity that will be far more than the web or social media. Imagine a not too distant future where everything around us knows we are there and acts accordingly. Your house configures itself to your preferences when you are home, the store you walk into knows you are there and changes advertising to feature products you like, and I am too limited to think of all the other ways that the world will actively engage us. But how does it know that we are there? The Watch. Rather than seeing the watch as a way that we access the world, think of the watch as the way that the world accesses us. I think that this is the world that Apple is building toward. It is probably 10 years our before all the pieces are in place, but no one is better prepared to make it happen. No one else has the resources and vertical integration to create the hardware and software infrastructure that people will build on. I am offering this today because it is easy to get discouraged when we see the traders ravage the stocks and watch our net worth crumble. It is a long game that requires patience and faith. Hang on Beautifully said Bud! Damn, almost got filled this morning. Maybe tomorrow
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Post by mrentropy on Jan 20, 2016 8:49:53 GMT -8
We will likely have a single digit trailing P/E after earnings are announced... If we didn't have buybacks, we would have that right now.
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Post by Volvocoupe on Jan 20, 2016 8:57:17 GMT -8
We will likely have a single digit trailing P/E after earnings are announced... If we didn't have buybacks, we would have that right now. Well we are just like HP don't you know
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Post by Volvocoupe on Jan 20, 2016 8:58:24 GMT -8
If we didn't have buybacks, we would have that right now. Well we are just like HP don't you know Have a look at their PE. Ouch.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 20, 2016 9:26:43 GMT -8
We will likely have a single digit trailing P/E after earnings are announced... If we didn't have buybacks, we would have that right now. Hard to say. There'd be an extra $100B+ (20% of current market cap) in the bank.
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Post by sponge on Jan 20, 2016 10:01:15 GMT -8
We are trying to muster some sort of a reversal.
In one hour we will get a better picture.
I agree with Rezonate regarding old iPhones in use. Have been seeing quite a few and those I talk to love their 5's and don't see a reason to upgrade.
Not too worried since I think there is plenty of market share to grab from Android in the next 10 years.
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Post by sponge on Jan 20, 2016 10:52:25 GMT -8
We are moving the Nasdaq today. Let's get the party going and see green tomorrow thru at least end of the week next week.
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Post by electrobuzz on Jan 20, 2016 12:10:33 GMT -8
My thoughts exactly. my 2 cents... If this is indeed the direction Apple intends to go it is far far from being certain that they will succeed. I have immense confidence in Apples ability to design and build hardware, but they have been weaker in AI and cloud integration. Google, despite or maybe because of their intrusive creepiness, has done a lot better in terms of predictive UI and artificial intelligence. I am more confident in Apples ability to make an amazing car. Apple's doesn't actually have to get into services part. All they have to do is let others build on their amazing hardware ecosystem to offer these services to their consumers thereby increasing the stickiness of the ecosystem. In any case, currently IMHO, no one has actually figured out how to monetise such services. Are you willing to pay to be informed about local transportation movement updates? Most probably these kind of services will be indirectly funded through tax or hidden costs. The great thing about this is, if somebody comes up with a viable monetisation strategy, Apple can move those services as part of their ecosystem itself. To illustrate this, consider the case of Uber. It is a classic example coming out of "sharing economy". But what is so special about Uber? They are just a middle man connecting travellers with drivers. The value add they bring to the table are: - easy payment option - matching supply with demand BUT what they cannot provide is: - Assurance about the driver. Uber does background checks of its drivers, BUT how many of you have actually checked if the guy driving the car is the actual guy Uber certified? It may not be a big issue in developed countries, but in countries where security is not a given (think of the Uber incident in India), people will be more assured of using a service where they can "authenticate" the driver and can automatically have access to the driver's details in case things go wrong. How can Apple potentially disrupt Uber? Starting with Maps, if Apple provides a way for people advertise and discover services for a sharing economy (car sharing, old cloths, second furniture, etc.) in their local area, the discovery issue is solved. Using TouchID we can tie the actual person to the person offering the service. (Of course you need an independent third party to bootstrap this, similar to a CA in a PKI infrastructure. There are number of ways to address that issue). Sample Apple-Uber scenario: - I fire up Maps, select the shared service i want (in this case, transportation), and put a request for my destination. - People offering the service can see my request and bid for it. (Currently uber controls the price) - I can choose which bid to accept based on the ratings of others - When the car comes, the driver authenticates to me via TouchID to show that he is the "right" person. - After service completion, use TouchID to pay via an Apple account. All of this can be potentially offered as part of iOS without any 3rd party app like Uber without too much overhead on Apple's part. The support infrastructure for that is already available in iOS. If this really happens, what will Uber do?
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Post by dreamRaj on Jan 20, 2016 12:10:38 GMT -8
I just can't see us being dragged lower after earnings. The FUDsters have had their wish fulfilled by getting AAPL to fall below 100 and then some. Unless the global meltdown continues, the only way to move should be up. Notice that I said "should" and not "will"
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Post by rezonate on Jan 20, 2016 12:27:43 GMT -8
Whew, 28 point gain! (../7..).
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 20, 2016 12:30:16 GMT -8
My stink bid missed filling by $.42
may it never fill!
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Post by Volvocoupe on Jan 20, 2016 12:44:11 GMT -8
My stink bid missed filling by $.42 may it never fill! Mine too, but there's always tomorrow I have a pile of client orders in at $93 also. Damn I say!
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 20, 2016 13:02:38 GMT -8
My stink bid missed filling by $.42 may it never fill! Mine too, but there's always tomorrow I have a pile of client orders in at $93 also. Damn I say! Frankly, it's nice to hear there are bottom fisher's out there providing a 'floor', even if it is anecdotal. Hope AAPL doesn't blow through those orders... Pleasantly surprised AAPL closed GREEN today, particularly in the context of the broader market.
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Post by macster on Jan 20, 2016 13:36:36 GMT -8
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Post by bick on Jan 20, 2016 14:13:39 GMT -8
So, last week I received an unsolicited call from my Apple business sales rep. Normally I call them. Got me thinking. I wonder if there's an inside directive to push more sales because Apple is seeing a slowdown? Take this for what it's worth, if anything.
I still love my iPhone 5s and have not upgraded. Chose to upgrade my 2 kids to the 6s instead.
Other than force-touch, I'm hard pressed to remember what the 6s has that the 6 doesn't? Seems there's some validity to the idea today that margin could be hurt with fewer people upgrading.
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