Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 28, 2016 3:26:28 GMT -8
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Post by nathanstevens on Jan 28, 2016 3:50:39 GMT -8
"Apple relies too much on iPhone" $aapl iPhone revs = 68% total revs $FB advertising revs = 96.5% total revs
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Post by nathanstevens on Jan 28, 2016 3:56:48 GMT -8
Just wanted to put those "blowout" FaceBook numbers into perspective.
2015 Services (updated FB): $AAPL Installed base related purchases $31.2B, est. install base 625M. ARPU $50/yr. $FB Total revs $17.93B, MAU 1.59B. ARPU $11.28/yr.
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stub
Member
The fix is in. Be patient. Don't panic.
Posts: 300
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Post by stub on Jan 28, 2016 5:09:45 GMT -8
Asia and Europe are mostly RED, but US pre-market is GREEN and nicely so. Even AAPL is GREEN, trading at $94.50 +1.08 (1.16%). Not a bad start to the day-- particularly if $93.34 was the bottom. I'll be happy to say my stink bid didn't hit. just an observation... 93.42 was the Low last Wednesday 9/20/16 93.42 was the Close this Wednesday 9/27/16 Hmmm...
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Post by tuffett on Jan 28, 2016 6:50:12 GMT -8
This stock is a complete piece of shit right now. What's the positive catalyst for a move up?
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Post by mrentropy on Jan 28, 2016 6:50:32 GMT -8
Asia and Europe are mostly RED, but US pre-market is GREEN and nicely so. Even AAPL is GREEN, trading at $94.50 +1.08 (1.16%). Not a bad start to the day-- particularly if $93.34 was the bottom. I'll be happy to say my stink bid didn't hit. just an observation... 93.42 was the Low last Wednesday 9/20/16 93.42 was the Close this Wednesday 9/27/16 Hmmm... I think you are going to see the crash low of 92 tested. If that doesn't hold, a lot of folks are calling for 85, which absurd as that sounds isn't out of the realm of reason in the current environment. As shareholders, the board is supposed to represent your interest.. They have done an especially poor job of it. I highly recommend you vote to remove them, or at least the ones who you feel have done the least for the shareholders. That is the real power you have besides selling your shares. Edit: There are two issues at stake for the board, ensuring the company has been run well, which has happened. My limited insight places more of the ownership of that on the company leadership than the board. They have not, however, protected shareholder value. At least in the medium term. That is what I am referring to.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 28, 2016 7:12:56 GMT -8
Agreed, and comments like "we only care about making the best products" or "the stock will take care of itself" are complete bullshit and do not paint a positive picture in terms of the stock.
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Post by mrentropy on Jan 28, 2016 7:23:13 GMT -8
Well, here is the 92 low. Does it hold?
In case you are wondering, ex-buybacks, we are at a record low P/E. Just in case you were under the delusion that fundamentals mattered.
Edit: even with buybacks, we are within a half point of record low P/E.
My personal non-educated desire for APPL in the short term: Raise $50B in the capital markets, spend it immediately before dividend and re-purchase 10% of the company. Push the chart technically into bull territory and see if the narrative changes. Technicals are the only catalyst I think anyone will listen to at this point
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Post by nagrani on Jan 28, 2016 7:37:30 GMT -8
Tim needs to grow a pair and defend the stock price. Enough is enough
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Post by tuffett on Jan 28, 2016 7:41:40 GMT -8
I'd even be ok with repatriating the money at this point. If Apple was willing to buy back in the $120-130s, there's not much difference between that and buying back in the low $90s with the tax hit. It may feel like a waste of money, but:
1) The cash as it stands already seems severely discounted 2) It will send an extremely strong message 3) It may take the political spotlight off the company 4) Putting huge debt on the balance sheet is not ideal 5) A tax holiday may be years away or may never happen. By the time it does Apple will have another chunk of cash ready to bring back. 6) The market does not react logically. Something like this may be what it needs.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 28, 2016 7:45:39 GMT -8
Tim needs to grow a pair and defend the stock price. Enough is enough I don't know what he can say at this point. A few months ago he said he sees no change to Apple's business in China when the market tanked on China concerns. Now he's admitting to a significant impact. The sad fact of the matter is that the market saw what was coming ahead and Tim Cook did not, and he lulled himself and his more confident shareholders into a false sense of security. My confidence in management has been shaken, to say the least.
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Post by nagrani on Jan 28, 2016 7:55:47 GMT -8
If u see what shareholders have earned over being an investor for the past two years and u compare that what the mgt team has earned - over a hundred million dollars - it's really fucked up
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Post by hledgard on Jan 28, 2016 7:56:35 GMT -8
This stock is a complete piece of shit right now. What's the positive catalyst for a move up? Microsoft's moat is very deep. Their products are deeply embedded with the government and large corporations. Breaking away from MS would be very disruptive. Hence the deep moat. Apple's moat is fragile, hence the low price. What can bring the stock back? Data indicating Apple has a lock on customers/services, that the moat is sustaining, hence the revenue will continue. My two bits.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
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Post by chinacat on Jan 28, 2016 8:11:07 GMT -8
This stock is a complete piece of shit right now. What's the positive catalyst for a move up? Apple's moat is fragile, hence the low price. So you don't think that 94% of mobile phone profits and unparalleled customer satisfaction/retention is a moat?
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Post by hledgard on Jan 28, 2016 8:54:14 GMT -8
Apple's moat is fragile, hence the low price. So you don't think that 94% of mobile phone profits and unparalleled customer satisfaction/retention is a moat? That is great, but there are signs that the party is slowing down. And Apple does not have a lock on good phones. That is what many of the pundits are saying. And also, the mess of Apple music and a weak cloud system are signs that the core philosophy that drove Jobs is missing.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 28, 2016 9:27:26 GMT -8
Apple's moat is fragile, hence the low price. So you don't think that 94% of mobile phone profits and unparalleled customer satisfaction/retention is a moat? It's a moat but it's not a driver of growth. Smartphone ASP is dropping and unit sales may also be peaking. Apple will have a gigantic share of a smaller and smaller pool of money. Moats are good for safety but not growth. Microsoft had a moat and the stock languished for a decade. Painful to see GOOG and AMZN today. GOOG is $15B away...
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
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Post by chinacat on Jan 28, 2016 9:54:06 GMT -8
So you don't think that 94% of mobile phone profits and unparalleled customer satisfaction/retention is a moat? That is great, but there are signs that the party is slowing down. And Apple does not have a lock on good phones. That is what many of the pundits are saying. And also, the mess of Apple music and a weak cloud system are signs that the core philosophy that drove Jobs is missing. I presume that you are quoting the pundits because you agree. Apple may not have a lock on good phones, but who else has shown that they know how to produce and sell mobile phones that make a profit, other than Samsung with the first big screen phones? Their profits for phones fell by 27% in the most recent quarter when Apple responded. We all loved Steve Jobs, but his record was hardly a series of unbroken successes. Perhaps it has been forgotten that Sun almost bought Apple for $6/share, pre-splits. This is not making excuses for the current shortcomings, but the company has been more successful coming up with possible new revenue sources than either Google or Facebook. I only briefly sampled Apple Music, having a very large collection of music acquired over the past 50 years, which i can now access anywhere in my house and in my car via Apple devices, so I am not a good judge of that effort. Apple Watch is a typical first product effort from the company, and it has already grabbed a substantial portion of the wearables market; I am confident the next couple of revisions will build on that. The TV industry is clearly going to streaming and unbundling, and Apple TV is positioned to be a strong player there. They will find business partners who understand the value of the Apple brand and the willingness of Apple customers to pay for quality. So call me Pollyanna. But I remember that panic of 2012, and I am glad we resisted the pressure of our investment manager to dump AAPL then. I expect to feel the same a couple of years from now.
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Post by Volvocoupe on Jan 28, 2016 10:40:36 GMT -8
That is great, but there are signs that the party is slowing down. And Apple does not have a lock on good phones. That is what many of the pundits are saying. And also, the mess of Apple music and a weak cloud system are signs that the core philosophy that drove Jobs is missing. I presume that you are quoting the pundits because you agree. Apple may not have a lock on good phones, but who else has shown that they know how to produce and sell mobile phones that make a profit, other than Samsung with the first big screen phones? Their profits for phones fell by 27% in the most recent quarter when Apple responded. We all loved Steve Jobs, but his record was hardly a series of unbroken successes. Perhaps it has been forgotten that Sun almost bought Apple for $6/share, pre-splits. This is not making excuses for the current shortcomings, but the company has been more successful coming up with possible new revenue sources than either Google or Facebook. I only briefly sampled Apple Music, having a very large collection of music acquired over the past 50 years, which i can now access anywhere in my house and in my car via Apple devices, so I am not a good judge of that effort. Apple Watch is a typical first product effort from the company, and it has already grabbed a substantial portion of the wearables market; I am confident the next couple of revisions will build on that. The TV industry is clearly going to streaming and unbundling, and Apple TV is positioned to be a strong player there. They will find business partners who understand the value of the Apple brand and the willingness of Apple customers to pay for quality. So call me Pollyanna. But I remember that panic of 2012, and I am glad we resisted the pressure of our investment manager to dump AAPL then. I expect to feel the same a couple of years from now. Save your breath Chinacat. It is falling on deaf ears here now. Thanks for trying to add some value though.
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Post by mrentropy on Jan 28, 2016 11:38:04 GMT -8
Just to be very, very clear: I am very happy with Apple the company. Their product, their execution, is nothing short of remarkable. Time, Jony Ive & co have done the best anyone could ask of them. My concern is as a shareholder. They are two very different things.
For what that is worth
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 28, 2016 11:43:40 GMT -8
Perhaps I'm whistling past a graveyard, but things don't seem that bleak to me.
Has the iPhone growth slowed? Yes, but there is still growth. Did China fall off a Cliff? No. Has Apple stopped Selling the Watch... the iPad... the TV... the Mac... For being in the middle of Gloomberg's economic downturn, Apple is doing pretty damn well.
Frankly all of the moving pieces aren't in place yet. But they are getting there. Could Apple have opened more stores in China? Of course. Do any of us have a clue what it takes to open a store in China? or India? Would I like to see more progress? Of course.
The media tends to characterize things as extremes, which is why it is valid to ask Fact or FUD -- even where there is truth to what they say. All the more so when those 'truths' pertain to Apple.
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Post by tricouleur on Jan 28, 2016 11:46:57 GMT -8
I visit this board often to gain a better understanding of aapl. However I must admit I am thoroughly surprised by the level of doom and gloom here. Let's not forget that Apple sold more phones this December quarter than last even though this was an "s" cycle upgrade year and they had to contend with macroeconomic issues well out of their hands. Guidance is lower for the next quarter but all signs show this to be a common cyclical theme, nothing new here. The fact that they are running into a currency headwind makes this a more pronounced dip but the underlying growth of the company from hardware sales coupled to the fact that they are getting more and more revenue from the likes of me from iTunes match, music, apps, etc. strongly suggests that this dip will be temporary. And historically Apple has shown this to be the case every single time after a major sell off. I am not a trader so my opinions are only relevant for long term shareholders. Even though it isn't easy to swallow such a pronounced dip in the stock price, I am loathe to call aapl a "POS" stock.
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Post by incorrigible on Jan 28, 2016 11:56:37 GMT -8
Even though it isn't easy to swallow such a pronounced dip in the stock price, I am loathe to call aapl a "POS" stock. Really? Last 3 years. AAPL up 29% Dow Jone Industrial Average up 24% :eyeroll
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Post by macster on Jan 28, 2016 12:02:53 GMT -8
www.macrumors.com/2016/01/28/apple-acquires-education-company-learnsprout/Apple has purchased education-technology startup LearnSprout. Fine but they are losing to chromebooks in the hardware and cost dept. They need a stripped down edPad with a wired physical keyboard cover. no bluetooth. no touch id get rid of bloat, Then combined with iOS 9.3, Learnsprout and other recent efforts they may stop the bleeding in education. "A mind is a terrible thing to waste". Lets not lose more kids too goog.
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Post by tricouleur on Jan 28, 2016 12:03:22 GMT -8
"Really? Last 3 years. AAPL up 29% Dow Jone Industrial Average up 24% :eyeroll"
My time frame is decades, I confess, not 3 years. There is no other stock that gives me such a safe haven, period.
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Post by rob_london on Jan 28, 2016 12:05:13 GMT -8
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Post by dreamRaj on Jan 28, 2016 12:08:21 GMT -8
Looking at the other stocks, each one of us must be feeling like such a loser today. We chose, or have held on to, the wrong partner!
For the first time, getting out of AAPL at some point and into a winning stock (fuck the company and its fundamentals and other BS) is seeming like a great idea.
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Post by sponge on Jan 28, 2016 12:18:14 GMT -8
I am out and feel much better. We will correct and have the cash to buy back. How much we fall and when is always hard to judge.
The iPhone is the backbone. I don't see significant growth to get the stock going. Sure units may grow 5-10% in the next 3 years, but WS won't be impressed.
Don't get me wrong. I am very bullish on the company and we may even go back up to 120. But the market wants serious growth and services or other products won't make much of a dent.
They will get more switchers but it will be nice and slow. Record switchers and yet we had flat growth and will see 15% drop.
The stock is going to move up and down and will attempt to do some swing trading. I see a p/e of 9 or lower this year.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 28, 2016 12:20:12 GMT -8
Hmmm. Is that capitulation?
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Post by dreamRaj on Jan 28, 2016 12:23:49 GMT -8
AMZN is up like it "already" reported good numbers!
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Post by chasmac on Jan 28, 2016 12:28:31 GMT -8
Hmmm. Is that capitulation? Turn the machines back on! BUY BUY BUY!!!!
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