|
Post by zzmac on Feb 3, 2016 14:56:43 GMT -8
You're missing the part where Sponge is a doofus. Sorry Tuff but I am investing my money and that of my clients for the next five to ten years. Have ridden the stock down 65%, 45% and now 32% without selling a share for me or my clients. I am buying and holding so these temporary declines do not bother me or my clients as I have spent the time educating them. The one positive is that the declines continue to be smaller as we move along. I expect the next one, in 4 or 5 years will be say 25%. You don't need rose coloured glasses to buy and hold Apple, you just need a bit of faith, some positive imagination and some vision. All long-term investing requires this whether you buy Apple or any other company, thus FUD doesn't change my mind, it only frustrates me. And there is no bigger attractor of FUD than Apple as they are anti-sponsorship, anti-ads, anti-everyone's information should be disclosed, etc. Are things perfect at Apple? Absolutely not but I think the core beliefs and strategies Apple has used to get where they are haven't changed, so I expect them to continue to grow the company is a way that reflects their values. And corporate value do matter in the long run. To hell with what the Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Facebook Fanboys and girls believe if all they believe is that those companies are somehow "superior" to Apple or that Apple is "arrogant", "closed", etc. They have no idea what they are talking about. Time will bring their PE's down to reality and perhaps one day Apple will move with the market's multiple and not trade at a discount more often than not. As I tell my clients, "only you can turn a temporary decline into a permanent loss...I will not do that for you". All market declines are temporary and most individual stock declines are also. Apple will get back to it's all-time high and move to new highs in the future. If you don't believe this because of what's going on now, you shouldn't be involved with owning this stock in any form whether it be long or with options. That's just my simple advice to you as it would be for any of my clients. I do not trade options on this stock, we are only long. Ask Luckychoices how many tens of millions of Apple gains he is sitting on. Ask him if he has ever sold a share because of the "market" for Apple shares or the FUD storms he has been through. Unfortunately I am only sitting on millions but happy none the less. Do I like being down over a million in gains with this latest correction? No...that's the frustrating part, but am I worried that I won't recover the million and add quite a few more over the next 10 years? Not at all. All this using the bank's money and the dividend pretty much pays all my borrowing costs. Look, I am not trying to brag here, I am just trying to make a point. To invest in Apple for the long-term with a buy and hold perspective is not easy. It is probably the most difficult stock to do this with. There is a target on their back from just about every industry, including the media because they fear Apple will steal their lunch money eventually. From my experience there has always been a disconnect between Apple and APPL, at least since I bought my first shares in 2008. Despite that, the long-term return has been terrific for me and my clients. I personally don't feel this story is over. It seems that Apple may trade between about 9 and 18 times earnings for the foreseeable future. I know you think you are rational and being a realist here but I think you're wrong and the market is anything but rational in the short-term. Let's just agree to disagree but this is not the place to be if you are going to spend all of your time thinking that the market and it's participants know more than most of the people here do about Apple. Just my opinion. This board would be useless if that was the case. Because of all this negativity, I have told myself I am going to stop visiting here as I am not seeing alot of valuable insight which is why I think most of us are here. I think this is why we have lost some important members over the years. I keep coming back though because I hope to add some value to the discussion and help my fellow Apple investors get through these shit storms. Sorry I can't really add anything to the options discussions. I hope to continue to visit here for many years to come in my quest to understand everything I possibly can about Apple from some very bright people Best regards, An Apple optimist +1 to this post. It's the way I invest. Have been long since 2000, I bought at almost rock bottom, when basically every article about Apple was negative, and have held on since. I have ridden out every storm and have not sold one share. Apple funds my retirement now. I l always look way ahead and so far it has worked and I just ride out the lows. My plan is to continue using the dividends for retirement and to leave the shares to my family when the time comes. I am also way down on my paper profits since last summer, but as long as Apple is funding my retirement I am happy and pretty confident the share price will eventually rise by a lot. I'm not happy with everything Apple does, not sure if the buyback has been the best use of the cash, but I trust that Apple still sees the big picture and is still playing the long game.
|
|
|
Post by Luckychoices on Feb 3, 2016 15:09:05 GMT -8
Now there's one absolutely clueless dude. Lot's of them out there though....I would say the majority of these media types could care less about going deep enough to understand what is really going on. What about Alphabets 5% tax rate in the last quarter? Anyone? No, crickets in the media. Thus, you have to ignore them. Okay I did read this particular article because you pointed it out The only people worth listening to are Bajarin, Dediu, Cybert, etc. Oh, and of course Mav over at Appletree Whenever I read an article from someone like Reeves, Since84, I search the author's name along with "Apple" just to see what his or her history looks like. In this case, I found a link to one of Reeves previous, an "Apple is doomed"-type article, titled, appropriately, “ The iPhone slowdown spells doom for Apple”. No link for that because most of us already know what it contains. However, the THE MACALOPE's take on Reeves commentary IS worth reading, IMO. Hey, what can I say, I'm an easy chuckle? And no, I really don't care that the rumors about Apple cutting orders were correct to a degree. When someone invests for the long term, these sideways or down movements for the stock are just unpleasant blips. Some choppy seas and blustery winds during an otherwise pleasant and rewarding cruise. What's most important during this period is not so much what the stock it doing but what the company is doing and I'm still very pleased with that. www.macworld.com/article/3020552/ios/headline-doom-the-iphone-s-success-dooms-apple.htmlHeadline doom: The iPhone’s success dooms Apple The Macalope | @themacalope Macworld Jan 9, 2016 4:00 AM Ask not for whom the doom bells toll. Seriously, why would you even do that? It’s obviously Apple.Writing for MarketWatch, Jeff Reeves says “The iPhone slowdown spells doom for Apple.” (Tip o’ the antlers to Jim Neal.) Nailed. It. Trip Chowdhry of Global Equities Research has called for the “completely clueless” Tim Cook, above, to be replaced. And the Macalope has called for the sharp scissors to be taken away from Trip Chowdhry before he hurts himself. Although he’s pretty sure Chowdhry could hurt himself on pudding.…Apple’s stock fell hard in the second half of 2015, and is now down about 25% from its July high. True! Hey, the overall market wouldn’t also be down considerably since July, would it? Who knows? Apparently it’s an unknowable item because it does not appear in this piece. When writing about Apple, it’s important to remove any extraneous contextual information so as to pretend there are no outside factors. That’s just how science works. Any astrologer will tell you that. For starters, it’s important to acknowledge that Apple has little else driving it other than the iPhone.Hey, kids! Let’s do some math! Oh, shut up, it’ll be fun. The iPhone made Apple 63 percent of its revenue in the last reported quarter. 100 minus 63 is 37. It’s true! Look it up. Apple made $51.5 billion in revenue in their most recently reported quarter. If you multiply $51.5 times 0.37 you get $19 billion which is apparently their “little else”. You know how much revenue Microsoft made in total during its most recently reported quarter? $20.4 billion.
Again, sorry, needless perspective and context. The Macalope apologizes profusely. Let’s continue with the caterwauling, brought to you by MarketWatch’s sponsor, Rumors of iPhone Production Cuts. Rumors of iPhone Production Cuts: Don’t bother asking for them by name because no one will put their name to these rumors. But you should totally believe them and sell all your Apple stock because Trip Chowdhry had a burrito-induced fever dream. The “reports” (LOL) that Reeves cites say Apple is cutting iPhone 6s production by 30 percent. You may think “Well, the iPhone 6s is just one of the phones Apple makes and Apple always cuts production headed into the quarter after a big launch. For example, iPhone sales last year dropped 18 percent from the company’s first fiscal quarter to the second. This is just natural.” This is why you are not a writer for MarketWatch, Gladys. We’ve reviewed your samples and, well, while your prose is florid and reactionary, it’s not MarketWatch-level reactionary. We wish you the best of luck in your future endeavors. Which will not include writing for MarketWatch. And I suppose if you’re really reaching for excuses, Apple doesn’t break out devices by model in its SEC filings, and there could theoretically be weak demand for the 6s but robust demand for its older models. But given the mammoth importance of the iPhone, it’s pretty much categorically bad to see rumors of a huge cut in iPhone production. If you’re trying to make sense of this in any way, then you’re “reaching for excuses”. Please, do not raise your hand until all of the tables have been flipped. Is Tim Cook “clueless,” as some claim? Hmm! [Leans forward in easy chair, pulls pipe from mouth, strokes chin thoughtfully, does this until he dies of starvation.] MarketWatch: Asking the hard questions. Sorry, did we say “hard”? We meant “dumb”. That… that was an editing error. Now, follow the bouncing logic: Fears of a China slowdown have been weighing on the market for some time. … That does not bode well for Apple, which is increasingly reliant on China. Apple is doing better and better in China every quarter. Apple’s dependency on China now dooms it.Never get good at anything, kids, because then you will just become dependent upon it and it will doom you. Consider that the Greater China segment of Apple saw 84% sales growth in fiscal 2015. So doomed. OMG. Like, Victor von Doomed. It’s not many companies that can get beat over the head with sales growth. Guess Apple’s just lucky that way.
|
|
|
Post by tuffett on Feb 3, 2016 15:21:00 GMT -8
Disagree. While the names you mentioned do provide great analysis and often much more in-depth than the pros, a lot of people here ignore the pros to their peril. What if, for example, people took the supply chain rumours more seriously instead of dismissing it as FUD and assuming everythjng was sunshine and rainbows? I for one took too long to get suspicious and lost more money than I needed to. Sorry Tuff but I am investing my money and that of my clients for the next five to ten years. Have ridden the stock down 65%, 45% and now 32% without selling a share for me or my clients. I am buying and holding so these temporary declines do not bother me or my clients as I have spent the time educating them. The one positive is that the declines continue to be smaller as we move along. I expect the next one, in 4 or 5 years will be say 25%. You don't need rose coloured glasses to buy and hold Apple, you just need a bit of faith, some positive imagination and some vision. All long-term investing requires this whether you buy Apple or any other company, thus FUD doesn't change my mind, it only frustrates me. And there is no bigger attractor of FUD than Apple as they are anti-sponsorship, anti-ads, anti-everyone's information should be disclosed, etc. Are things perfect at Apple? Absolutely not but I think the core beliefs and strategies Apple has used to get where they are haven't changed, so I expect them to continue to grow the company is a way that reflects their values. And corporate value do matter in the long run. To hell with what the Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Facebook Fanboys and girls believe if all they believe is that those companies are somehow "superior" to Apple or that Apple is "arrogant", "closed", etc. They have no idea what they are talking about. Time will bring their PE's down to reality and perhaps one day Apple will move with the market's multiple and not trade at a discount more often than not. As I tell my clients, "only you can turn a temporary decline into a permanent loss...I will not do that for you". All market declines are temporary and most individual stock declines are also. Apple will get back to it's all-time high and move to new highs in the future. If you don't believe this because of what's going on now, you shouldn't be involved with owning this stock in any form whether it be long or with options. That's just my simple advice to you as it would be for any of my clients. I do not trade options on this stock, we are only long. Ask Luckychoices how many tens of millions of Apple gains he is sitting on. Ask him if he has ever sold a share because of the "market" for Apple shares or the FUD storms he has been through. Unfortunately I am only sitting on millions but happy none the less. Do I like being down over a million in gains with this latest correction? No...that's the frustrating part, but am I worried that I won't recover the million and add quite a few more over the next 10 years? Not at all. All this using the bank's money and the dividend pretty much pays all my borrowing costs. Look, I am not trying to brag here, I am just trying to make a point. To invest in Apple for the long-term with a buy and hold perspective is not easy. It is probably the most difficult stock to do this with. There is a target on their back from just about every industry, including the media because they fear Apple will steal their lunch money eventually. From my experience there has always been a disconnect between Apple and APPL, at least since I bought my first shares in 2008. Despite that, the long-term return has been terrific for me and my clients. I personally don't feel this story is over. It seems that Apple may trade between about 9 and 18 times earnings for the foreseeable future. I know you think you are rational and being a realist here but I think you're wrong and the market is anything but rational in the short-term. Let's just agree to disagree but this is not the place to be if you are going to spend all of your time thinking that the market and it's participants know more than most of the people here do about Apple. Just my opinion. This board would be useless if that was the case. Because of all this negativity, I have told myself I am going to stop visiting here as I am not seeing alot of valuable insight which is why I think most of us are here. I think this is why we have lost some important members over the years. I keep coming back though because I hope to add some value to the discussion and help my fellow Apple investors get through these shit storms. Sorry I can't really add anything to the options discussions. I hope to continue to visit here for many years to come in my quest to understand everything I possibly can about Apple from some very bright people. Best regards, An Apple optimist Believe it or not, I'm also buy and hold. What I'm saying is that while it has been and can continue to be greatly profitable, there are ways to play it safer and mitigate losses and end up with even better gains. I don't manage other people's money and I'm sure you know more and have more experience than I do. But it is my belief that buy and hold is not the best strategy for a stock that we all know can correct 20-40% in the blink of an eye. Buy and hold is basically a way to mitigate FOMO - fear of missing out. But I've realized for AAPL is it very hard to miss out on big moves because the stock will always correct. I'm looking to sell when the P/E rises a bit, and then I'll get back in in tranches during the next selloff. Easier said that done, I know, but it's definitely safer, less volatile and potentially far more profitable as well. Luckychoices has done extremely well but he started investing well before Apple's hypergrowth. If you expect a repeat performance for someone investing today, you're going to be mistaken. Using his phenomenal results as an example of investing in a $500B company today is foolish and misleading. I think people here know a great deal. But I also think the rampant optimism and careless dismissal of anything negative as FUD often clouds reality. Name a single person here who took the analysts seriously and thought that iPhone sales growth would be negative this quarter. Go on, I'm waiting. Don't you think if people took that information into serious consideration they might have sold off part of their position or at least hedged a bit more with some puts? We should all be trying to improve as investors, and after years of experience I don't think a simple buy and hold is the best way to play this stock the way it trades today. 10, 15, 20 years ago, sure.
|
|
|
Post by tuffett on Feb 3, 2016 15:25:59 GMT -8
Sorry to ruin your feel-good party. Someone has to post without their rose-coloured glasses. That's just the thing; there is no "feel-good party." I think people here were hopeful for a blow-out 1st Q, myself included, but now that that didn't work out and we've hit this slow patch, I don't see anybody cheerleading or making excuses for the lackluster performance. Tim and Luca did plenty of that for us on the conf call. I think we're all licking our wounds, buying more or selling out. Really, there no need for (what's the opposite of rose-colored glasses?) the shit-colored glasses that you are self-righteously wearing now. I remember the last downturn two years ago, and you became very vocal and negative for months and months, telling people the company was toast, Tim should be fired, etc. You are entitled to yr opinion, of course, but to post constantly how bad apple is doing isn't helping anyone but you, I guess. It doesn't shake anyone out of the echo-chamber-of-apple-positivity that you seem to think this place is. We're all seasoned apple investors and aware of the risks. Post what you like, but we're not all Bambis in need of your negative wake-up call. Sorry for the rant. I was critical of management, but I never said the company was toast. I'm still very long AAPL. And if you go back into the previously I was one of the few (or only?) posters here who didn't just ignore the supply chain rumours and expressed concern about FQ2 guidance before earnings. Pretty much everyone else was looking for any excuse under the sun to dismiss each and every article that came out. And there is just as much or greater need for my critical posts than many of the other posts here. Feel free to ignore mine if you like, but I think I bring a view here that not many others do, and has (sometimes) proven to be correct in the past. I have received PMs expressing appreciation for my posts, so I will continue to do what I do. Sorry.
|
|
|
Post by Luckychoices on Feb 3, 2016 16:24:10 GMT -8
I want to apologize in advance if my actions today in any way contribute to any further drop in our stock tomorrow or in the future* but I bought 17 more shares at $94.50. Even though, according to many of the FUD writers, Apple is apparently "Doomed", I just couldn't help myself. Cheers to the AAPL Longs! Oh, and also to the Apple optimist(s) on the board!! * Over the last 10-15 years, the occurrences of AAPL trading lower the day after I buy any shares has been too frequent to be a coincidence.
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,183
|
Post by JDSoCal on Feb 3, 2016 16:24:45 GMT -8
What if, for example, people took the supply chain rumours more seriously instead of dismissing it as FUD and assuming everythjng was sunshine and rainbows? I for one took too long to get suspicious and lost more money than I needed to. Supply chain rumors are a horseshit, inaccurate way to know how Apple is doing. By that anecdotal logic, Sponge and his darts should have been crowned Kreskin last quarter. A broken clock is right twice a day. How about all the time supply chain chicken entrails forecasting (SCCEF) was way off? Like every time except one? So Mr Negative, er, fair-&-balanced, will AAPL be going to 75, 50, or 0 next? ... I'm just glad those WS anal parasites can't steal divys anymore with the clearinghouse rule change on spreads, not that I have any. And it's *lemon* cookie.
|
|
|
Post by Volvocoupe on Feb 3, 2016 16:41:17 GMT -8
Sorry Tuff but I am investing my money and that of my clients for the next five to ten years. Have ridden the stock down 65%, 45% and now 32% without selling a share for me or my clients. I am buying and holding so these temporary declines do not bother me or my clients as I have spent the time educating them. The one positive is that the declines continue to be smaller as we move along. I expect the next one, in 4 or 5 years will be say 25%. You don't need rose coloured glasses to buy and hold Apple, you just need a bit of faith, some positive imagination and some vision. All long-term investing requires this whether you buy Apple or any other company, thus FUD doesn't change my mind, it only frustrates me. And there is no bigger attractor of FUD than Apple as they are anti-sponsorship, anti-ads, anti-everyone's information should be disclosed, etc. Are things perfect at Apple? Absolutely not but I think the core beliefs and strategies Apple has used to get where they are haven't changed, so I expect them to continue to grow the company is a way that reflects their values. And corporate value do matter in the long run. To hell with what the Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Facebook Fanboys and girls believe if all they believe is that those companies are somehow "superior" to Apple or that Apple is "arrogant", "closed", etc. They have no idea what they are talking about. Time will bring their PE's down to reality and perhaps one day Apple will move with the market's multiple and not trade at a discount more often than not. As I tell my clients, "only you can turn a temporary decline into a permanent loss...I will not do that for you". All market declines are temporary and most individual stock declines are also. Apple will get back to it's all-time high and move to new highs in the future. If you don't believe this because of what's going on now, you shouldn't be involved with owning this stock in any form whether it be long or with options. That's just my simple advice to you as it would be for any of my clients. I do not trade options on this stock, we are only long. Ask Luckychoices how many tens of millions of Apple gains he is sitting on. Ask him if he has ever sold a share because of the "market" for Apple shares or the FUD storms he has been through. Unfortunately I am only sitting on millions but happy none the less. Do I like being down over a million in gains with this latest correction? No...that's the frustrating part, but am I worried that I won't recover the million and add quite a few more over the next 10 years? Not at all. All this using the bank's money and the dividend pretty much pays all my borrowing costs. Look, I am not trying to brag here, I am just trying to make a point. To invest in Apple for the long-term with a buy and hold perspective is not easy. It is probably the most difficult stock to do this with. There is a target on their back from just about every industry, including the media because they fear Apple will steal their lunch money eventually. From my experience there has always been a disconnect between Apple and APPL, at least since I bought my first shares in 2008. Despite that, the long-term return has been terrific for me and my clients. I personally don't feel this story is over. It seems that Apple may trade between about 9 and 18 times earnings for the foreseeable future. I know you think you are rational and being a realist here but I think you're wrong and the market is anything but rational in the short-term. Let's just agree to disagree but this is not the place to be if you are going to spend all of your time thinking that the market and it's participants know more than most of the people here do about Apple. Just my opinion. This board would be useless if that was the case. Because of all this negativity, I have told myself I am going to stop visiting here as I am not seeing alot of valuable insight which is why I think most of us are here. I think this is why we have lost some important members over the years. I keep coming back though because I hope to add some value to the discussion and help my fellow Apple investors get through these shit storms. Sorry I can't really add anything to the options discussions. I hope to continue to visit here for many years to come in my quest to understand everything I possibly can about Apple from some very bright people Best regards, An Apple optimist Congrats and very nicely said Gbob +1 to this post. It's the way I invest. Have been long since 2000, I bought at almost rock bottom, when basically every article about Apple was negative, and have held on since. I have ridden out every storm and have not sold one share. Apple funds my retirement now. I l always look way ahead and so far it has worked and I just ride out the lows. My plan is to continue using the dividends for retirement and to leave the shares to my family when the time comes. I am also way down on my paper profits since last summer, but as long as Apple is funding my retirement I am happy and pretty confident the share price will eventually rise by a lot. I'm not happy with everything Apple does, not sure if the buyback has been the best use of the cash, but I trust that Apple still sees the big picture and is still playing the long game. Congrats and well done Gbob!
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Feb 3, 2016 16:44:45 GMT -8
Look at 2002-2006. We are relatively flat for almost 4 years. Really?? Split adjusted price per share 01/04/2002 $1.692 12/28/2006 $12.12 Gain 716% Am I missing something? I stand corrected. Meant 1982-2002
|
|
|
Post by Volvocoupe on Feb 3, 2016 16:52:24 GMT -8
That's just the thing; there is no "feel-good party." I think people here were hopeful for a blow-out 1st Q, myself included, but now that that didn't work out and we've hit this slow patch, I don't see anybody cheerleading or making excuses for the lackluster performance. Tim and Luca did plenty of that for us on the conf call. I think we're all licking our wounds, buying more or selling out. Really, there no need for (what's the opposite of rose-colored glasses?) the shit-colored glasses that you are self-righteously wearing now. I remember the last downturn two years ago, and you became very vocal and negative for months and months, telling people the company was toast, Tim should be fired, etc. You are entitled to yr opinion, of course, but to post constantly how bad apple is doing isn't helping anyone but you, I guess. It doesn't shake anyone out of the echo-chamber-of-apple-positivity that you seem to think this place is. We're all seasoned apple investors and aware of the risks. Post what you like, but we're not all Bambis in need of your negative wake-up call. Sorry for the rant. I was critical of management, but I never said the company was toast. I'm still very long AAPL. And if you go back into the previously I was one of the few (or only?) posters here who didn't just ignore the supply chain rumours and expressed concern about FQ2 guidance before earnings. Pretty much everyone else was looking for any excuse under the sun to dismiss each and every article that came out. And there is just as much or greater need for my critical posts than many of the other posts here. Feel free to ignore mine if you like, but I think I bring a view here that not many others do, and has (sometimes) proven to be correct in the past. I have received PMs expressing appreciation for my posts, so I will continue to do what I do. Sorry. Okay Tuff, I give up, you win. By the way I am also a PM Best of luck with your investing future. Regards,
|
|
|
Post by Volvocoupe on Feb 3, 2016 16:54:55 GMT -8
Really?? Split adjusted price per share 01/04/2002 $1.692 12/28/2006 $12.12 Gain 716% Am I missing something? I stand corrected. Meant 1982-2002 Completely different company then Sponge. Regards,
|
|
|
Post by galleybob on Feb 3, 2016 16:58:17 GMT -8
+1 to this post. It's the way I invest. Have been long since 2000, I bought at almost rock bottom, when basically every article about Apple was negative, and have held on since. I have ridden out every storm and have not sold one share. Apple funds my retirement now. I l always look way ahead and so far it has worked and I just ride out the lows. My plan is to continue using the dividends for retirement and to leave the shares to my family when the time comes. I am also way down on my paper profits since last summer, but as long as Apple is funding my retirement I am happy and pretty confident the share price will eventually rise by a lot. I'm not happy with everything Apple does, not sure if the buyback has been the best use of the cash, but I trust that Apple still sees the big picture and is still playing the long game. Congrats and well done Gbob! Thanks, I based my investment on OS X. I saw this as a game changer. I had no idea what would come out of it but when I read that the operating system would be portable I saw great things coming. It was dead money though for a few years until Apple came out with a Windows version of iTunes. Then the flood gates opened.
|
|
|
Post by Volvocoupe on Feb 3, 2016 17:02:31 GMT -8
Congrats and well done Gbob! Thanks, I based my investment on OS X. I saw this as a game changer. I had no idea what would come out of it but when I read that the operating system would be portable I saw great things coming. It was dead money though for a few years until Apple came out with a Windows version of iTunes. Then the flood gates opened. Nice combination of vision, imagination and faith!
|
|
bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
|
Post by bud777 on Feb 3, 2016 17:31:25 GMT -8
What if, for example, people took the supply chain rumours more seriously instead of dismissing it as FUD and assuming everythjng was sunshine and rainbows? I for one took too long to get suspicious and lost more money than I needed to. Supply chain rumors are a horseshit, inaccurate way to know how Apple is doing. By that anecdotal logic, Sponge and his darts should have been crowned Kreskin last quarter. A broken clock is right twice a day. How about all the time supply chain chicken entrails forecasting (SCCEF) was way off? Like every time except one? So Mr Negative, er, fair-&-balanced, will AAPL be going to 75, 50, or 0 next? ... I'm just glad those WS anal parasites can't steal divys anymore with the clearinghouse rule change on spreads, not that I have any. And it's *lemon* cookie. Fourth grade was soooo long ago, but I do believe you are correct.
|
|
|
Post by tuffett on Feb 3, 2016 18:27:05 GMT -8
What if, for example, people took the supply chain rumours more seriously instead of dismissing it as FUD and assuming everythjng was sunshine and rainbows? I for one took too long to get suspicious and lost more money than I needed to. Supply chain rumors are a horseshit, inaccurate way to know how Apple is doing. By that anecdotal logic, Sponge and his darts should have been crowned Kreskin last quarter. A broken clock is right twice a day. How about all the time supply chain chicken entrails forecasting (SCCEF) was way off? Like every time except one? So Mr Negative, er, fair-&-balanced, will AAPL be going to 75, 50, or 0 next? ... I'm just glad those WS anal parasites can't steal divys anymore with the clearinghouse rule change on spreads, not that I have any. And it's *lemon* cookie. Taken in aggregate, with the supply chain stuff as well as actual earnings reports from Apple suppliers, it became fairly obvious that a slowdown was likely. But yeah, maybe I just got lucky... As I've said before - one or two pieces I ignore. But dozens, with some from reputable analysts such as Huberty and I start to take notice. It's just common sense, something which is often severely lacking here. And weren't you the guy pounding the table to BTFD in the $120s? Nice call, Mr. Know-it-all.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Feb 3, 2016 19:50:24 GMT -8
Let me go on record to BTFD now if we get to 70s. Can it happen? Sure. When eps drops 5% this year and you stick a p/e of 9 to it you get 78.
If the stock market crashes in the fall, it will take us down hard.
The good news is that we could double 18 months later. Welcome to Apple.
|
|
|
Post by 2centsplus on Feb 3, 2016 21:22:42 GMT -8
Well, signs of life on the ol' board yet!
|
|
|
Post by 2centsplus on Feb 3, 2016 23:08:53 GMT -8
For me it's always been about android vs ios and who would win the ecosystem war, or would there at least be a tie? Right now with samsung in decline and a mass-market-like 5sc coming out, that's a good moat for the fruit company. How many companies on earth have such a powerful long-term position? You can buy this rock-solid cash-laden company for less than 10 PE after cash and watch it grow with the tech industry that it largely controls, an industry with growth rates that have only been accelerating since, say, the industrial revolution. And not incidentally, you are getting a company with actual honest accounting.
So who knows for sure, but if you're going to bet in the stock market, this seems like an above-average one to me.
|
|