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Post by hellojapan on Oct 25, 2012 13:18:07 GMT -8
Amazon basically back to flat. Truly ridiculous.
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Post by terps530 on Oct 25, 2012 13:18:37 GMT -8
btw- amazon has rebounded a ton somehow
edit: rats! beat me to it haha
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Post by mtjs on Oct 25, 2012 13:18:49 GMT -8
Use the dial in number. sounds great. Internet what?
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Post by qualitywte on Oct 25, 2012 13:18:54 GMT -8
I'm playing with the back of a napkin here, but doesn't 52 bucks of revenue pencil out to 18-19 dollars of earnings for next quarter unless Apple becomes "very inefficient"? Unless they plan to spend lots on something like developing the television of the future.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 25, 2012 13:19:25 GMT -8
I'm playing with the back of a napkin here, but doesn't 52 bucks of revenue pencil out to 18-19 dollars of earnings for next quarter unless Apple becomes "very inefficient"? What GM are you using?
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Post by prazan on Oct 25, 2012 13:19:29 GMT -8
What was the GM guidance?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 25, 2012 13:19:32 GMT -8
Let AAPL hit 585 if it must. I have a suspicion - which could be wrong - that AAPL bounces from there and doesn't look back. Do recall though that consolidation follows Red October.
Ooh, kinda like the first question actually. A good challenge from Huberty.
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Post by Mav on Oct 25, 2012 13:19:47 GMT -8
Just 36.0%™
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Post by Mav on Oct 25, 2012 13:20:24 GMT -8
Hilariously, Oppenheimer takes YOY GM comparisons off the table. ;D
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Post by fas550 on Oct 25, 2012 13:20:33 GMT -8
You're kidding, right? When you can't produce enough product to satisfy demand, you don't lower prices. And when you have the best products, you don't need to add more features (and expense) while maintaining the same price. So, I can't see how what you're saying satisfies the logic test. Your points are all valid. But my fear is that >40% margin does leave room for a competitor with inferior supply chain to create a reasonably competitive product, sell it for materially less, and still walk away with 5-10% margins--which most of the industry considers perfectly fine. Just because no company has had the good sense to build decent alternatives yet, does not mean it cannot be done. Just because demand is higher than Apple can meet, does not mean that could never change if there were decent competition. But taking lower margins could, in my opinion, guarantee that there cannot be effective competition. Try this thought experiment, if lower margins are automatically bad, then higher margins must be good. So what if Apple decided to go for 60% margin and raised prices 50%. Would you still feel comfortable that demand would exceed capacity? Or would you be afraid that would leave too much room for competitors? The top line is always more important than the bottom line (see AMZN) but Adam is right. If you can't ship enough don't lower the price until the completion comes. IMHO competition (serious competition) is at least 6-18 months away.
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Post by petertje on Oct 25, 2012 13:20:37 GMT -8
ipad mini margin expectation?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 25, 2012 13:21:35 GMT -8
Higher cost structure. The iPhone 4 effect, writ large with tons of new product introductions and iPhone 4/4S price drops.
Love that confidence in Oppenheimer's voice.
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 25, 2012 13:21:44 GMT -8
This has been the same "issue" for years yet Apple's revenue continues to ramp while margins expand. This is a dumb conversation, in my opinion, for at least another couple years. We can revisit then. Edited to say I don't think you're dumb. I just think this concern is dumb because the numbers don't support the argument, yet. It's an issue you want to be in front of, not an issue you want to handle reactively after somebody proves they can take sales from you and make a profit, and establish a brand. That's all.
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Post by fas550 on Oct 25, 2012 13:22:02 GMT -8
What was the GM guidance? 36 I believe. He's explaining why now (exchange rate, product transition etc..)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 25, 2012 13:22:32 GMT -8
Good news? The higher the scale, the faster Apple drives down the cost curve over time.
Oppenheimer: Let me explain it for you all again if you didn't get it the first time. That's some moxie!
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 25, 2012 13:23:23 GMT -8
Some of us can't listen, so everyone....please give details
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Post by Mav on Oct 25, 2012 13:24:17 GMT -8
Tim jumps in with a little Apple Zen. We live to innovate and serve customers. We manage the company for the long run.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Oct 25, 2012 13:24:31 GMT -8
iMessage seems to be having problems too. I can't connect to some people
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Post by Mav on Oct 25, 2012 13:24:40 GMT -8
Good question from Huberty (see, I give compliments when due), and strong response from Oppenheimer.
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Post by fas550 on Oct 25, 2012 13:24:50 GMT -8
What was the GM guidance? 36 I believe. He's explaining why now (exchange rate, product transition etc..) Doesn't sound good. Deferred revenue, iphon5 margins lower than 4s, iPad mini aggressive price also contribute
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Post by podboy on Oct 25, 2012 13:24:53 GMT -8
They are projecting 25% Top line growth in Q1 vs last year if you back out that 14th week.. That is strong.. I see them beating by 13% so you are looking at Top line growth of about 40% on a 13 week to 13 week comparison
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Post by geraci on Oct 25, 2012 13:25:00 GMT -8
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Post by spoonman on Oct 25, 2012 13:25:00 GMT -8
Tim said very very robust iphone 5 demand.
Confident in ability to supply quite a few iphones.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 25, 2012 13:25:13 GMT -8
This has been the same "issue" for years yet Apple's revenue continues to ramp while margins expand. This is a dumb conversation, in my opinion, for at least another couple years. We can revisit then. Edited to say I don't think you're dumb. I just think this concern is dumb because the numbers don't support the argument, yet. It's an issue you want to be in front of, not an issue you want to handle reactively after somebody proves they can take sales from you and make a profit, and establish a brand. That's all. I hear you. I just haven't seen any issue. Apple still can't produce enough product. Who cares if someone is satisfying some demand out there when you can't ramp to supply any more anyhow and when the market is expanding so rapidly? I don't see it as an issue for a couple years when smart phone market growth stagnates.
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Post by Mav on Oct 25, 2012 13:25:23 GMT -8
iPhone 5 - backlogged.
Output - much better than it was.
New Tim Cook Understatement of the Year™ - "quite a few iPhones"
(Just look at that $52B guidance, really.)
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Post by mstefa on Oct 25, 2012 13:26:13 GMT -8
GS: how are you thinking about supply ramp/ challenges Tim: demand is extremely robust, we're thrilled, significant backlog, output has improved significantly since last month. largest ramp in apple's history/ difficult to predict supply demand balance, but we're confident..
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Post by Mav on Oct 25, 2012 13:26:23 GMT -8
I see NOTHING to be concerned about medium-to-long-term.
Proud of my company here! Proud of ya!
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Post by terps530 on Oct 25, 2012 13:26:24 GMT -8
significant state of backlog on iphone5, and their output has significantly increased recently vs when they started production -Tim Cook
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Post by petertje on Oct 25, 2012 13:27:19 GMT -8
margin issues will work out to be better over the next months, so the 36% is very conservative i assume
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Post by gtrplyr on Oct 25, 2012 13:27:22 GMT -8
Stock turned around rather quickly in AH ... down only $1 now ... something in the CC ?
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