Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Feb 10, 2016 3:23:30 GMT -8
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Post by rickag on Feb 10, 2016 4:43:30 GMT -8
Especially liked the DED article on Appleinsider. The ability to use Apple Pay within apps was flying under the radar.
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Post by rickag on Feb 10, 2016 10:16:12 GMT -8
I haven't checked AAPL yet, what happened, did they go bankrupt and everyone committed suicide?
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Post by tuffett on Feb 10, 2016 10:39:52 GMT -8
I haven't checked AAPL yet, what happened, did they go bankrupt and everyone committed suicide? Not much to talk about these days.
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Post by macster on Feb 10, 2016 10:58:59 GMT -8
As i research with the thought of diversifying more growth for period, I saw this on Schwab a little while ago. Whatever
BUZZ-Apple Inc: Options bet on shares recovering by May 11:27 AM ET, 02/10/2016 - Reuters ** Large options trade Wednesday bets on Apple Inc shares recovering recent losses by mid-May
** A trader bought 10,500 May 100 calls and sold twice as many May 110 calls for a net outlay of about $1.43 mln
** Trader loses entire premium paid if shares stay below $100 through May expiration; max gain if shares rise above $110
** If options bought against a stock position, the strategy may be aimed at cutting losses incurred due to recent slide in Apple share price; so far, shares down 9 pct this year
** If so, trader may be hoping shares rise above $110 by mid-May and the 110 May calls sold result in shares being called away
** AAPL shares last traded above $110 on Dec 17; shares up about 0.5 pct to $95.50 on Wednesday
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Post by dreamRaj on Feb 10, 2016 12:54:23 GMT -8
I haven't checked AAPL yet, what happened, did they go bankrupt and everyone committed suicide? Seems like it. Any of those "AAPL is holding up well today" days -- like the one we had this Monday -- are just a one-day wonder. The stock goes back to the dogs right after. Hard to fathom the fact that 90-100 will our range till April, or even July. iPhone 7 should bring some cheer. I've said this before, but to put it in perspective again, we're where we were in 2012 as if iPhone 5, 5S, 6 and 6S never happened. Shameful!
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Post by firestorm on Feb 10, 2016 13:37:50 GMT -8
I haven't checked AAPL yet, what happened, did they go bankrupt and everyone committed suicide? Seems like it. Any of those "AAPL is holding up well today" days -- like the one we had this Monday -- are just a one-day wonder. The stock goes back to the dogs right after. Hard to fathom the fact that 90-100 will our range till April, or even July. iPhone 7 should bring some cheer. I've said this before, but to put it in perspective again, we're where we were in 2012 as if iPhone 5, 5S, 6 and 6S never happened. Shameful! But Apple invested tens of billions in buying back the stock; how could it be worth the same amount?
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Post by incorrigible on Feb 10, 2016 13:52:42 GMT -8
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Post by deasys on Feb 10, 2016 14:08:42 GMT -8
Seems like it. Any of those "AAPL is holding up well today" days -- like the one we had this Monday -- are just a one-day wonder. The stock goes back to the dogs right after. Hard to fathom the fact that 90-100 will our range till April, or even July. iPhone 7 should bring some cheer. I've said this before, but to put it in perspective again, we're where we were in 2012 as if iPhone 5, 5S, 6 and 6S never happened. Shameful! But Apple invested tens of billions in buying back the stock; how could it be worth the same amount? Yes, how could it (in a "perfect" market)? Anywho, I want Apple to keep buying back and I want to own the last share…which the market will price, of course, at $97.
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Post by firestorm on Feb 10, 2016 14:16:30 GMT -8
But Apple invested tens of billions in buying back the stock; how could it be worth the same amount? Yes, how could it (in a "perfect" market)? Anywho, I want Apple to keep buying back and I want to own the last share…which the market will price, of course, at $97. I'm not convinced that the stock buyback has added anything to AAPL's valuation. I consider it lost money.
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Post by rickag on Feb 10, 2016 14:47:34 GMT -8
Yes, how could it (in a "perfect" market)? Anywho, I want Apple to keep buying back and I want to own the last share…which the market will price, of course, at $97. I'm not convinced that the stock buyback has added anything to AAPL's valuation. I consider it lost money. At this moment in time you are correct. Could be a failure. Could be Apple sees a transition from a growth stock to a dividend stock. Could be Apple sees itself growing revenue and profits and AAPL is the best stock to buy and is vastly under priced. Either the second or third options work for me.
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Post by Luckychoices on Feb 10, 2016 16:28:20 GMT -8
I have really NEVER understood how the stock market works .... just when you think you can make sense of it something happens just to show you how little you understand .... multiply that feeling x10 and that's where we are today .... High Oil ? Bad for the market ... Low Oil ? Bad for the market ... Fed raising rates ? Good for market ... Fed not raising rates ? Good for the market ..... sheesh ..... lines between the craps table and the market are getting blurrier and blurrier .... AAPL still holding on somewhat .... make me wonder if Apple is supporting the price with purchases or if investors are actually seeing value down here in the low 90's. Cheers to the longs .... Quite honestly, it's because you are long side bias. You're searching for reasons to justify your position. Trade the market that trends and you will feel less frustration. A simple primer for that would just be observing the 10/50/200 moving averages which ID all the possible trends (short medium long) What is your stock or the index doing? Which side of the trade are you on? >> Quite honestly, it's because you are long side bias.
I have a dumb question for you, macwire. I don't know if gtrplyr trades AAPL or is only long the stock. I was unfamiliar with the term, but from what I could find with a search, the term "long side bias" doesn't apply if a person is a long-only stock holder. Are you assuming he trades AAPL by categorizing him as having "long side bias"? >> You're searching for reasons to justify your position.
Again, assuming someone is long-only in a stock, the reasons to justify one's position would probably have to come, IMO, from the company itself, not from the market. >>Trade the market that trends and you will feel less frustration. A simple primer for that would just be observing the 10/50/200 moving averages which ID all the possible trends (short medium long) >> What is your stock or the index doing? Which side of the trade are you on?
I was especially surprised to read these last comments because of the frustration that's been expressed almost every day on this board for so long now. Even though those of us that are long with AAPL stock for a number of years have been through this before we continue to get frustrated every time it happens. And, of course, we're always surprised and pissed when it does. But the traders on the board also seem to be experiencing a great deal of frustration as well. Being an AAPL Long has required patience and confidence in the company for many years now, so this is a somewhat normal situation. But are you indicating that trading AAPL is easier (or even easy) by following your suggestion regarding trends? TIA
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Feb 10, 2016 17:46:34 GMT -8
Quite honestly, it's because you are long side bias. You're searching for reasons to justify your position. Trade the market that trends and you will feel less frustration. A simple primer for that would just be observing the 10/50/200 moving averages which ID all the possible trends (short medium long) What is your stock or the index doing? Which side of the trade are you on? >> Quite honestly, it's because you are long side bias.
I have a dumb question for you, macwire. I don't know if gtrplyr trades AAPL or is only long the stock. I was unfamiliar with the term, but from what I could find with a search, the term "long side bias" doesn't apply if a person is a long-only stock holder. Are you assuming he trades AAPL by categorizing him as having "long side bias"? >> You're searching for reasons to justify your position.
Again, assuming someone is long-only in a stock, the reasons to justify one's position would probably have to come, IMO, from the company itself, not from the market. >>Trade the market that trends and you will feel less frustration. A simple primer for that would just be observing the 10/50/200 moving averages which ID all the possible trends (short medium long) >> What is your stock or the index doing? Which side of the trade are you on?
I was especially surprised to read these last comments because of the frustration that's been expressed almost every day on this board for so long now. Even though those of us that are long with AAPL stock for a number of years have been through this before we continue to get frustrated every time it happens. And, of course, we're always surprised and pissed when it does. But the traders on the board also seem to be experiencing a great deal of frustration as well. Being an AAPL Long has required patience and confidence in the company for many years now, so this is a somewhat normal situation. But are you indicating that trading AAPL is easier (or even easy) by following your suggestion regarding trends? TIA I think macwire, with his trader's perspective - realist/chartist, neutral bias - would have us stockholders follow his approach and trade in and out of our positions based on trends. Any other approach, like being a long term holder, puts you in the long side bias camp, wishing and hoping for appreciation some day. It's optimistic and faithful, but not pro-active or defensive. macwire's view appears to leave no room for more passive, long-term, patient investors who believe in a company and are willing to ride out the storms. With macwire's approach I guess there's no Warren Buffet (whose fav holding period is forever), but there might be a Scott Redler... Everybody has to find an approach to investing that works for him/herself. Frustration is just part of the game. No one wins everyday...
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Feb 10, 2016 17:54:21 GMT -8
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Post by macwire on Feb 10, 2016 18:02:30 GMT -8
Quite honestly, it's because you are long side bias. You're searching for reasons to justify your position. Trade the market that trends and you will feel less frustration. A simple primer for that would just be observing the 10/50/200 moving averages which ID all the possible trends (short medium long) What is your stock or the index doing? Which side of the trade are you on? >> Quite honestly, it's because you are long side bias.
I have a dumb question for you, macwire. I don't know if gtrplyr trades AAPL or is only long the stock. I was unfamiliar with the term, but from what I could find with a search, the term "long side bias" doesn't apply if a person is a long-only stock holder. Are you assuming he trades AAPL by categorizing him as having "long side bias"? >> You're searching for reasons to justify your position.
Again, assuming someone is long-only in a stock, the reasons to justify one's position would probably have to come, IMO, from the company itself, not from the market. >>Trade the market that trends and you will feel less frustration. A simple primer for that would just be observing the 10/50/200 moving averages which ID all the possible trends (short medium long) >> What is your stock or the index doing? Which side of the trade are you on?
I was especially surprised to read these last comments because of the frustration that's been expressed almost every day on this board for so long now. Even though those of us that are long with AAPL stock for a number of years have been through this before we continue to get frustrated every time it happens. And, of course, we're always surprised and pissed when it does. But the traders on the board also seem to be experiencing a great deal of frustration as well. Being an AAPL Long has required patience and confidence in the company for many years now, so this is a somewhat normal situation. But are you indicating that trading AAPL is easier (or even easy) by following your suggestion regarding trends? TIA 1) wasnt really directed specifically to gtrpylr - more to board in general. long side bias as in everyone here is long not short AAPL. I dont know how gtrpylr trades specifically - but I know many people here have eschewed diversification in search of alpha. there is nothing wrong with that but it comes with considerable risk and this is one of those time periods where it is extremely frustrating. I'VE BEEN THERE. in 2013 I searched everything I could to JUSTIFY keeping me in this AAPL position as it plummeting 45% having a severe effect on my life, health, etc...it was physically draining. that experience brought me to spending years of charting, learning, etc...to avoid repeating that process ever again. what i refer to as long side bias is people that continually buy the dip mentality eschewing the price action of the market..almost refusing to see the other potential side of what price action is saying about AAPL. thats what i mean by that 2) any company's goal is to say or do the thing that helps profit the shareholder/owners of the company. 3) nothing is "easy" in the market imo unless you want to be passive money...and there is nothing wrong with that. AT ALL. if you want alpha, you're gonna have to work for it. what IS easier, IMO, is having an open mind to see things both ways and trading a concrete plan (if A then B...if C then D) and sticking to it...keeps you out of trouble, keeps you from averaging down big losers, and keeps you from expending your emotional capital having a plan of HOPE.
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Post by macwire on Feb 10, 2016 18:04:20 GMT -8
utter bunk and bs...tsla lol that said - the market is a forward looking price instrument not a backwards looking one. always has been - always will be.
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Post by macwire on Feb 10, 2016 18:09:55 GMT -8
>> Quite honestly, it's because you are long side bias.
I have a dumb question for you, macwire. I don't know if gtrplyr trades AAPL or is only long the stock. I was unfamiliar with the term, but from what I could find with a search, the term "long side bias" doesn't apply if a person is a long-only stock holder. Are you assuming he trades AAPL by categorizing him as having "long side bias"? >> You're searching for reasons to justify your position.
Again, assuming someone is long-only in a stock, the reasons to justify one's position would probably have to come, IMO, from the company itself, not from the market. >>Trade the market that trends and you will feel less frustration. A simple primer for that would just be observing the 10/50/200 moving averages which ID all the possible trends (short medium long) >> What is your stock or the index doing? Which side of the trade are you on?
I was especially surprised to read these last comments because of the frustration that's been expressed almost every day on this board for so long now. Even though those of us that are long with AAPL stock for a number of years have been through this before we continue to get frustrated every time it happens. And, of course, we're always surprised and pissed when it does. But the traders on the board also seem to be experiencing a great deal of frustration as well. Being an AAPL Long has required patience and confidence in the company for many years now, so this is a somewhat normal situation. But are you indicating that trading AAPL is easier (or even easy) by following your suggestion regarding trends? TIA I think macwire, with his trader's perspective - realist/chartist, neutral bias - would have us stockholders follow his approach and trade in and out of our positions based on trends. Any other approach, like being a long term holder, puts you in the long side bias camp, wishing and hoping for appreciation some day. It's optimistic and faithful, but not pro-active or defensive. macwire's view appears to leave no room for more passive, long-term, patient investors who believe in a company and are willing to ride out the storms. With macwire's approach I guess there's no Warren Buffet (whose fav holding period is forever), but there might be a Scott Redler... Everybody has to find an approach to investing that works for him/herself. Frustration is just part of the game. No one wins everyday... imo if you are concentrated in one position...you are trying to beat the market...and generate alpha. if you are doing that...and dont have a plan - that is tough. you are taking on a ton more risk. again nothing wrong with that - i do it there is def room for passive investing with diversified instruments of course! spx has returned 10 percent minus inflation on average for 120 yrs...extrapolate and thats a double every 7-9 years and longer youre in the better your chances of losing money evaporate. know which side of the fence you are gunning for and invest/trade your plan. want to beat the market and pick stocks? know the risks, have a plan, and know when you are WRONG...being stuck in aapl while it bleeds 30% only to come back a few years later has opportunity cost and definitely has emotional cost. BEEN THERE. speaking from experience. want to be "average" (which funny enough beats most actively managed mutual funds and a bevy of hedge funds too - ackman is down 20% this year already) - buy an index, have a mix of assets that you rotate towards as you near "need money" age... my .02 cents...
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Post by Luckychoices on Feb 10, 2016 20:16:06 GMT -8
>> Quite honestly, it's because you are long side bias.
I have a dumb question for you, macwire. I don't know if gtrplyr trades AAPL or is only long the stock. I was unfamiliar with the term, but from what I could find with a search, the term "long side bias" doesn't apply if a person is a long-only stock holder. Are you assuming he trades AAPL by categorizing him as having "long side bias"? >> You're searching for reasons to justify your position.
Again, assuming someone is long-only in a stock, the reasons to justify one's position would probably have to come, IMO, from the company itself, not from the market. >>Trade the market that trends and you will feel less frustration. A simple primer for that would just be observing the 10/50/200 moving averages which ID all the possible trends (short medium long) >> What is your stock or the index doing? Which side of the trade are you on?
I was especially surprised to read these last comments because of the frustration that's been expressed almost every day on this board for so long now. Even though those of us that are long with AAPL stock for a number of years have been through this before we continue to get frustrated every time it happens. And, of course, we're always surprised and pissed when it does. But the traders on the board also seem to be experiencing a great deal of frustration as well. Being an AAPL Long has required patience and confidence in the company for many years now, so this is a somewhat normal situation. But are you indicating that trading AAPL is easier (or even easy) by following your suggestion regarding trends? TIA 1) wasnt really directed specifically to gtrpylr - more to board in general. long side bias as in everyone here is long not short AAPL. I dont know how gtrpylr trades specifically - but I know many people here have eschewed diversification in search of alpha. there is nothing wrong with that but it comes with considerable risk and this is one of those time periods where it is extremely frustrating. I'VE BEEN THERE. in 2013 I searched everything I could to JUSTIFY keeping me in this AAPL position as it plummeting 45% having a severe effect on my life, health, etc...it was physically draining. that experience brought me to spending years of charting, learning, etc...to avoid repeating that process ever again. what i refer to as long side bias is people that continually buy the dip mentality eschewing the price action of the market..almost refusing to see the other potential side of what price action is saying about AAPL. thats what i mean by that 2) any company's goal is to say or do the thing that helps profit the shareholder/owners of the company. 3) nothing is "easy" in the market imo unless you want to be passive money...and there is nothing wrong with that. AT ALL. if you want alpha, you're gonna have to work for it. what IS easier, IMO, is having an open mind to see things both ways and trading a concrete plan (if A then B...if C then D) and sticking to it...keeps you out of trouble, keeps you from averaging down big losers, and keeps you from expending your emotional capital having a plan of HOPE. Thank you so much for giving such a detailed response, macwire. I really appreciate it. During this long stretch when AAPL is mostly going down and sideways, I've been looking through previous years of our AAPL investing online statements and putting the info for each account into a spreadsheet. No particular reason but just because I can't help myself; if I have data, I'm compelled to put it into a table and graph it if I can. One thing I noticed during this effort is that even though we've been buy-and-hold for years, there were several times in the past when I sold shares from our main trust account and from our IRA accounts. It was in the 2007-009 time frame when I decided I would be proactive with our accounts, take advantage of the peaks and valleys of the stock, and sell before it went down and buy back just before it started back up again. Genius, right? The bad part was that the first time I tried it, it worked great. But before I could write a book, detailing my investing breakthrough, I tried it again. And then once more before deciding that I should stick with being long in the stock and leave any other method to others. I'm not a risk taker when it comes to money. Many, many years ago, when I was in my 20's, I remember going into a Lake Tahoe casino and playing the nickel slots until I spent $2 and then walking out. That was as much as I was willing to lose and I'm still that way. And I'm even less willing to bet money on the stock market than I was in the casino. If I consider how much my (and my wife's) accounts are down since AAPLs ATH, I would be very distraught if I considered that money "lost". But I don't. The fact that we've invested in AAPL for years, doesn't mean we didn't buy some shares over $600/share. So, in the earlier 2008-2009 timeframe, when the stock went from just under $200/share down under $90/share, it got our attention. But it came back. Then, in the time period you mentioned, 2013-2014, it went through a similar cycle. We were upset but I guess not to the degree that you were. I was five years retired in 2013 and 71 years old. How many articles are written stressing that folks close to retirement age should play it safe with their investments? The thing of it is though, I feel like we are playing it safe by being totally invested in AAPL since we still have great confidence in the company. However, even though it had big drops in 2008 and 2013 from which it recovered, there's no guarantee that it will come back from here. I just have the conviction that it will and that's what makes the difference, I guess, in being willing to put up with the FUD BS instead of dumping the stock and moving into something else. Plus there's that whole, "buy low, sell high" thing. Anyway, sorry to ramble but thanks again for your thoughtful response and I wish you much good luck in your trading!
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Post by gtrplyr on Feb 10, 2016 20:40:56 GMT -8
Hi all,
Been a busy day and I'm just getting a chance to read the treads ..... FWIW I'm not a trader and have been long AAPL since 2003 . During that time I've sold very few shares ... once to close a house and I replaced the shares after another property sold. Other than that I've simply bought and held .... through the years I've managed to get rid of everything else and be "all in" with our accounts (2 IRAs and 1 main account) ... stupid but it's worked out really well. I think ultimately we come through this and end up higher by years end, of course it is still very stressful watching the stock right now. I believe in this company and their products ... I think there is room for big improvement in the software and services side and am really hoping to see some changes soon but other than that I'm pretty happy with the lineup and management. For those reasons I'm hanging tough .....
I enjoyed your post Lucky and can relate to the idea regarding buying in and out of the stock ... I'm not smart enough to do it. Simple as that ... my hats off to those of you on the board who have done well with that strategy.
Cheers to the longs ....
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Post by dreamRaj on Feb 11, 2016 1:25:33 GMT -8
4:25 AM - Pre-market.
With all of Asia AND EUROPE going down again today, our futures are already pointing lower by 300 points.
The vicious cycle continues. Arrghhh!!
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