Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Jun 8, 2016 2:34:30 GMT -8
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Post by rickag on Jun 8, 2016 3:56:28 GMT -8
Thank you for starting the thread.
In the Fortune article it appears Tim Cook may want to apply for Food Stamps when comparing his pay to Sundar's. Yikes, over $100 million in 2015 for Sundar and a paltry $10 million for Cook.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jun 8, 2016 4:03:26 GMT -8
CNBC has Apple's 'simple' lessons. Meanwhile, Investopedia has Apple Can Become the Next BlackBerry, Analyst Says (AAPL, BBRY). No link. Anyone want to buy some Apple bonds?
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Post by tuffett on Jun 8, 2016 4:44:37 GMT -8
I find the disdain for what is clearly a legitimate concern amusing. Being out of stock for what's going on three months is unacceptable for any company, let alone Apple who is supposed to be a master of SCM and operational efficiency. This board is way too bullish and there's too much cheerleading going on, so I don't bother joining in. I take the other side because it provides a fresh perspective. I will just remind everyone that many here have been burned time and time again for their refusal to contemplate anything negative about Apple/AAPL. I still have visions of the pleas to BTFD in the high $120s...
So by all means, keep laughing me off.
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Post by sponge on Jun 8, 2016 5:00:58 GMT -8
I find the disdain for what is clearly a legitimate concern amusing. Being out of stock for what's going on three months is unacceptable for any company, let alone Apple who is supposed to be a master of SCM and operational efficiency. This board is way too bullish and there's too much cheerleading going on, so I don't bother joining in. I take the other side because it provides a fresh perspective. I will just remind everyone that many here have been burned time and time again for their refusal to contemplate anything negative about Apple/AAPL. I still have visions of the pleas to BTFD in the high $120s... So by all means, keep laughing me off. I agree. Ultimately we need to focus on earnings and overall trend if iPhone sales. Both are in a downward trajectory. When traveling in Europe I saw a majority owning iPhones. We are ripe for big upgrade moves in the next three years.
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Post by rickag on Jun 8, 2016 5:18:03 GMT -8
tuffet I doubt anyone is laughing at you. It is frustrating the iPhone 5SE is still back ordered, but there could be reasons people are not considering.
I for example believe one reason is the machining tools being used have been completely depreciated allowing the startling low cost. Ramping up production by adding more tooling maybe cost prohibitive and as sales eventually decline Apple would be left with excess capacity.
Sales could be astonishing large, but other analysis for activations are contradicting this thesis.
Also, this could be a trial to see demand and Apple may be considering 3 sizes of high end iPhones.
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Post by mrentropy on Jun 8, 2016 6:01:45 GMT -8
AAPL has a higher price than NFLX again. Fwiw.
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Post by tuffett on Jun 8, 2016 6:31:22 GMT -8
tuffet I doubt anyone is laughing at you. It is frustrating the iPhone 5SE is still back ordered, but there could be reasons people are not considering. I for example believe one reason is the machining tools being used have been completely depreciated allowing the startling low cost. Ramping up production by adding more tooling maybe cost prohibitive and as sales eventually decline Apple would be left with excess capacity. Sales could be astonishing large, but other analysis for activations are contradicting this thesis. Also, this could be a trial to see demand and Apple may be considering 3 sizes of high end iPhones. Thanks, and you may be right, though I still think Apple should have been more prepared to produce enough units if they went through all the trouble of conducting the research, designing and marketing the product. It just doesn't make sense to do all that for a small amount of sales, especially since it's a lower cost phone with likely lower margins. It's good to have a debate with opposing viewpoints, but too many people here have some serious blinders on. I haven't seen it on this board recently but there are still people who truly believe that Apple sells every iPhone it can make - that's how delusional they are. Just as the FUD can get overwhelming on the bearish side, the bulls are also often equally misguided. Read the thread yesterday. They certainly are dismissing my posts and not offering any of the counterpoints that you have.
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Post by Volvocoupe on Jun 8, 2016 6:37:48 GMT -8
tuffet I doubt anyone is laughing at you. It is frustrating the iPhone 5SE is still back ordered, but there could be reasons people are not considering. I for example believe one reason is the machining tools being used have been completely depreciated allowing the startling low cost. Ramping up production by adding more tooling maybe cost prohibitive and as sales eventually decline Apple would be left with excess capacity. Sales could be astonishing large, but other analysis for activations are contradicting this thesis. Also, this could be a trial to see demand and Apple may be considering 3 sizes of high end iPhones. Thanks, and you may be right, though I still think Apple should have been more prepared to produce enough units if they went through all the trouble of conducting the research, designing and marketing the product. It just doesn't make sense to do all that for a small amount of sales, especially since it's a lower cost phone with likely lower margins. It's good to have a debate with opposing viewpoints, but too many people here have some serious blinders on. I haven't seen it on this board recently but there are still people who truly believe that Apple sells every iPhone it can make - that's how delusional they are. Just as the FUD can get overwhelming on the bearish side, the bulls are also often equally misguided. Read the thread yesterday. They certainly are dismissing my posts and not offering any of the counterpoints that you have. Wow, you really are full of yourself! Good luck with your future young fella ?
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Post by tuffett on Jun 8, 2016 6:40:21 GMT -8
Lol
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jun 8, 2016 8:20:02 GMT -8
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Post by mace on Jun 8, 2016 9:20:52 GMT -8
iPhone SE - Suspect not all SVPs think is a good idea to make it and hence not buying any new tools for it, just use the 5S ones. IMHO, SE form factor looks more elegant than 4.7" and 5.5". Gave my 6S to my son and bot SE, feeling very good about it. As a business decision, not buying new machine tools could be a right decision because current situation could just be a pent-up demand, after that is satisfied, demand may drops significantly. I would just leave it for a few more months.
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Post by mace on Jun 8, 2016 9:22:14 GMT -8
Clinging longer is ok, just don't switch. We need big installed base for services to shine.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jun 8, 2016 10:03:58 GMT -8
Clinging longer is ok, just don't switch. We need big installed base for services to shine. But even with solid growth, services won't make up for a continuing decrease in hardware sales.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Jun 8, 2016 10:11:14 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jun 8, 2016 10:23:32 GMT -8
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Post by mace on Jun 8, 2016 11:15:07 GMT -8
Clinging longer is ok, just don't switch. We need big installed base for services to shine. But even with solid growth, services won't make up for a continuing decrease in hardware sales. Yet to know for sure. Increase in revenue from services (Pay, Music, Care, Car play, future services), Watch > Decrease revenue (or is it stabilizing?) in iOS device sales
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Post by tuffett on Jun 8, 2016 12:09:51 GMT -8
But even with solid growth, services won't make up for a continuing decrease in hardware sales. Yet to know for sure. Increase in revenue from services (Pay, Music, Care, Car play, future services), Watch > Decrease revenue (or is it stabilizing?) in iOS device sales Apple Pay at 0.15% of transaction (even less in China apparently) is going to be a rounding error for a long time. A trillion dollars of transactions would net Apple a maximum of $1.5B - peanuts compared to hardware. Apple only takes a 27 or 28% cut of Apple Music revenue. Apple would make a revenue of about $3.3B if they get to 100M subscribers. Not a bad number but it's not going to make concerns about hardware growth disappear. I'm not sure about what kind of revenue Apple gets from CarPlay, but I doubt it's anything close to $1B. App Store annual subscriptions is where the real growth is in services, as the install base increases. This has good potential I think. Also looks like Apple will start selling ads for priority App Store listing. Not sure if I agree with this from a user experience point of view, but it'll certainly help the numbers. At the end of the day, hardware is still key to Apple's profitability.
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Post by mace on Jun 8, 2016 13:56:56 GMT -8
... At the end of the day, hardware is still key to Apple's profitability. So far seems this way.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jun 8, 2016 14:01:09 GMT -8
For any who may be interested, I just posted an update to the thread in the "Apple Fundamentals" section that can be viewed using the link below. My motivation for the update was passing the eighth year of my retirement last month and, also, I wanted to comment on how the poor performance of AAPL over this past year may have affected the preference of my wife and myself to be 100% invested in AAPL. Spoiler alert: It didn't. Sometimes it helps to have all your eggs in one basket
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mark
fire starter
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Post by mark on Jun 8, 2016 14:08:29 GMT -8
I asked a question a few days ago in response to the "lengthening phone replacement cycle" discussion. It was very late in the day, so I will repeat the question here.
In a lengthening phone replacement cycle, what happens after a year (or whatever the lengthening period was) has passed? Seems to me that demand rises back up to where it was previously. Am I looking at it the wrong way?
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bud777
fire starter
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Post by bud777 on Jun 8, 2016 16:47:23 GMT -8
I don't think that it is a question of demand level, more a question of total sales per unit time. Pretend that for the sake of argument everyone who is ever going to buy a phone has bought one. After that point all sales are replacement sales. Obviously, if people are replacing their phones every three years instead of every two years the total number of phones sold in a six year period would be quite different.
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Post by mace on Jun 8, 2016 16:49:01 GMT -8
Lower annual average.
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