Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jun 14, 2016 2:43:43 GMT -8
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Post by audiosculpture12 on Jun 14, 2016 3:18:40 GMT -8
I actually thought that was one of the better WWDCs. There was fun stuff (messages), under the hood stuff (watch OS speed and Mac OS), exciting stuff (universal clipboard), and getting the developers back on board too. The new iOS seemed like a much needed increase in efficiency too, really starting to exploit 3d touch. TVOS was meh though, apart from 'single sign on', which is a typical 'apple' oh yeaaahhh moment. All that aside, i was sorta hoping for the mac pro to get some love. It seems to be the ugly child atm.
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Post by rickag on Jun 14, 2016 4:01:41 GMT -8
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Post by deasys on Jun 14, 2016 5:03:31 GMT -8
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mark
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Posts: 1,555
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Post by mark on Jun 14, 2016 5:29:30 GMT -8
Meh. Sold all my Apple last week and rolled into tesla. I see many of the attributes of Steve jobs in Elon musk and looking forward to another great run. Cheers to all on this board. Will roll back from time to time One of the reasons I've been apprehensive about Apple entering the auto industry (I'm not saying they are doing so, just that there's been a lot of talk about it recently) is because I don't see a path to high enough margins in that industry. What convinced you that margins can be high enough to make it something worth investing in?
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Post by rickag on Jun 14, 2016 5:32:14 GMT -8
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Post by firestorm on Jun 14, 2016 6:30:55 GMT -8
Meh. Sold all my Apple last week and rolled into tesla. I see many of the attributes of Steve jobs in Elon musk and looking forward to another great run. Cheers to all on this board. Will roll back from time to time One of the reasons I've been apprehensive about Apple entering the auto industry (I'm not saying they are doing so, just that there's been a lot of talk about it recently) is because I don't see a path to high enough margins in that industry. What convinced you that margins can be high enough to make it something worth investing in? Look at it this way: low margins have not hurt the Amazon stock price, yet, and high margins are not helping the Apple stock price. The key is to ride the momentum of expectations, and trust yourself to get off the train before it jumps the tracks.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,555
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Post by mark on Jun 14, 2016 6:52:20 GMT -8
One of the reasons I've been apprehensive about Apple entering the auto industry (I'm not saying they are doing so, just that there's been a lot of talk about it recently) is because I don't see a path to high enough margins in that industry. What convinced you that margins can be high enough to make it something worth investing in? Look at it this way: low margins have not hurt the Amazon stock price, yet, and high margins are not helping the Apple stock price. The key is to ride the momentum of expectations, and trust yourself to get off the train before it jumps the tracks. I'm pretty sure you realize that one of the main things that is exciting to investors lately at Amazon is AWS ... and it just happens to be that AWS has quite reasonable margins in the mid-20s at the moment.
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Post by firestorm on Jun 14, 2016 7:21:26 GMT -8
Look at it this way: low margins have not hurt the Amazon stock price, yet, and high margins are not helping the Apple stock price. The key is to ride the momentum of expectations, and trust yourself to get off the train before it jumps the tracks. I'm pretty sure you realize that one of the main things that is exciting to investors lately at Amazon is AWS ... and it just happens to be that AWS has quite reasonable margins in the mid-20s at the moment. Good point. But the excitement around Tesla has nothing to do with margins; it has to do with the excitement of changing the world, or making a ding in the universe, if you will.
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Post by artman1033 on Jun 14, 2016 7:38:54 GMT -8
Current thoughts: AAPL is a dead stock. WWDC: It is important that women and minorities play a bigger part in WWDC white guy describes a feature..... then a woman and a minority guy describe the same feature. black woman describes MUSIC.....not much to HEAR here. (better than the ramblings of Iovine last year) iPhoneSE sales could be 36 million per year.... Or up to 60 million if they REALLY ramped up production. (There is no reason to believe will build any more production lines for the iPhoneSE.... ) My observation: The iPhoneSE has all of the functions and features needed by an average consumer. THEREFORE: iPhone ASPs will continue to go down. SERVICES is the hope and dreams of . They are now featuring SERVICES as a key profit center. investor.apple.comfiles.shareholder.com/downloads/AAPL/2047031585x0x887924/424D1DF4-D77A-40B2-8EA1-22417EEB9C83/Reconciliation_of_Installed_Base_Related_Purchases.pdf
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Post by mrentropy on Jun 14, 2016 8:22:50 GMT -8
Look at it this way: low margins have not hurt the Amazon stock price, yet, and high margins are not helping the Apple stock price. The key is to ride the momentum of expectations, and trust yourself to get off the train before it jumps the tracks. I'm pretty sure you realize that one of the main things that is exciting to investors lately at Amazon is AWS ... and it just happens to be that AWS has quite reasonable margins in the mid-20s at the moment. That will decline rapidly in the same way ISP margins declined. As Apple showed, it is easy to switch providers. As the differentiation decreases, the only thing left to compete on will be price.
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Post by artman1033 on Jun 14, 2016 9:40:12 GMT -8
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Post by tuffett on Jun 14, 2016 10:01:36 GMT -8
The diversity stuff is so contrived. I believe in the principle that a diverse workforce has more strength but people should be hired on their qualifications for the job and not because they are female, a minority or homosexual. It should be an organic process and I don't that's what's happening at Apple. Basically they decided to specifically have a bunch of women present and it came at the expense of a quality keynote. I wouldn't be surprised if their workforce as a whole is less talented overall now as a result of this diversity push.
The problem I see is that Apple's focus (and thus their most impressive work) is on initiatives that are not big profit centers. While it's great for the world, it's coming at a time where people are seriously questioning the future of Apple's bread and butter - truly great and innovative high-margin products. Spaceship campus, recycling, energy, privacy (not enough people care), ResearchKit, Swift. Some of this stuff will have positive profit implications down the line but it's a stretch to think that it's going to be more significant than stronger hardware sales. The one big positive is iPhone SE but their supply issued are preventing them from capilizing on this momentum.
The problem with Apple is that people are no longer amazed by their hardware, and it's kind of become just another product that you might upgrade every few years but no longer get excited about and rush to buy. That's certainly my personal experience. Never again will I line up for an iPhone or even worry too much about getting it in the first few weeks. Sales won't plummet because of the large install base but I'm struggling to see how the company will grow in the long term without a major new hardware product line. The alternative is to make a massive push towards services by lowering the hardware prices, but once they pull this lever they will never be able to go back.
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Post by mrentropy on Jun 14, 2016 10:08:34 GMT -8
I have to question this report because a) How would they know at the point? Has Apple given them their year forward forecast? b) If Terry Gou really said this, I expect Foxconn's portion of Apple's contract manufacturing to decrease a LOT, and rapidly.
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Post by tuffett on Jun 14, 2016 10:19:55 GMT -8
Who else are they going to go to? Foxconn is set up perfectly to handle Apple's long-term business. If the whole war against Samsung didn't stop Apple from using them as a supplier, I doubt Terry has anything to worry about.
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Post by incorrigible on Jun 14, 2016 10:25:49 GMT -8
Who else are they going to go to? Foxconn is set up perfectly to handle Apple's long-term business. If the whole war against Samsung didn't stop Apple from using them as a supplier, I doubt Terry has anything to worry about. Remember the video showing the iPhone disassembly robot? Perhaps they are gearing up domestic US production utilizing robots? Sounds plausible.
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Post by mace on Jun 14, 2016 10:45:00 GMT -8
Sound like an overkill feature for photos. Are these capabilities developed for cars but let's use them for photos too?
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Post by mace on Jun 14, 2016 10:47:23 GMT -8
In this WWDC, Apple makes clear what SJ meant by cracking TV, "Future of the TV is Apps". Finally, a live TV apps, Sling TV from Dish. Can we expect more?
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Post by mace on Jun 14, 2016 10:52:24 GMT -8
If that is true, AAPL has bottomed and should start climbing since market is 6 months forward looking
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Post by tuffett on Jun 14, 2016 10:55:41 GMT -8
Who else are they going to go to? Foxconn is set up perfectly to handle Apple's long-term business. If the whole war against Samsung didn't stop Apple from using them as a supplier, I doubt Terry has anything to worry about. Remember the video showing the iPhone disassembly robot? Perhaps they are gearing up domestic US production utilizing robots? Sounds plausible. Foxconn already has tens of thousands of robots as part of the assembly line. Still a massive amount of labour is needed. You could be right eventually but it's many, many years out.
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Post by mace on Jun 14, 2016 11:02:29 GMT -8
... The problem with Apple is that people are no longer amazed by their hardware, and it's kind of become just another product that you might upgrade every few years but no longer get excited about and rush to buy. That's certainly my personal experience. Never again will I line up for an iPhone or even worry too much about getting it in the first few weeks. Sales won't plummet because of the large install base but I'm struggling to see how the company will grow in the long term without a major new hardware product line. The alternative is to make a massive push towards services by lowering the hardware prices, but once they pull this lever they will never be able to go back. Two things, Apple has successfully raised price. Many examples, latest is 4.7" and 5.5" are priced higher. Pushing services need not lower prices too much. iPhone SE is a good example.
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Post by tuffett on Jun 14, 2016 11:24:05 GMT -8
... The problem with Apple is that people are no longer amazed by their hardware, and it's kind of become just another product that you might upgrade every few years but no longer get excited about and rush to buy. That's certainly my personal experience. Never again will I line up for an iPhone or even worry too much about getting it in the first few weeks. Sales won't plummet because of the large install base but I'm struggling to see how the company will grow in the long term without a major new hardware product line. The alternative is to make a massive push towards services by lowering the hardware prices, but once they pull this lever they will never be able to go back. Two things, Apple has successfully raised price. Many examples, latest is 4.7" and 5.5" are priced higher. Pushing services need not lower prices too much. iPhone SE is a good example. Yes, they were extremely successful raising ASPs for the iPhone 6. The problem is where do they go from here? We're facing problems that did not exist with the iPhone 6: - The end of the subsidy model - an expensive phone suddenly feels a LOT more expensive than some "good enough" alternatives - Storage - 16GB is ridiculous at this point and Apple will have to go up to 32GB as base, likely this year. This is going to impact ASPs, as fewer people will feel compelled to jump to the next tier - Global economic uncertainty - hopefully this is temporary but we're in shaky times right now. As far as I know, Apple does not typically raise price on existing products (apart from international FX adjustments). The 5.5" phone was basically a new product. We need new products.
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mark
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Posts: 1,555
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Post by mark on Jun 14, 2016 11:51:19 GMT -8
Two things, Apple has successfully raised price. Many examples, latest is 4.7" and 5.5" are priced higher. Pushing services need not lower prices too much. iPhone SE is a good example. Yes, they were extremely successful raising ASPs for the iPhone 6. The problem is where do they go from here? We're facing problems that did not exist with the iPhone 6: - The end of the subsidy model - an expensive phone suddenly feels a LOT more expensive than some "good enough" alternatives - Storage - 16GB is ridiculous at this point and Apple will have to go up to 32GB as base, likely this year. This is going to impact ASPs, as fewer people will feel compelled to jump to the next tier - Global economic uncertainty - hopefully this is temporary but we're in shaky times right now. As far as I know, Apple does not typically raise price on existing products (apart from international FX adjustments). The 5.5" phone was basically a new product. We need new products. I tend to agree that 16GB isn't enough. BUT then I look around and see so many single-application iPhones where 16GB is more than enough to accomplish the one task that a particular iPhone is meant for. Things like POS devices (at flea markets, carried by flight attendants on planes, etc) mainly.
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Post by tuffett on Jun 14, 2016 12:41:26 GMT -8
Yes, they were extremely successful raising ASPs for the iPhone 6. The problem is where do they go from here? We're facing problems that did not exist with the iPhone 6: - The end of the subsidy model - an expensive phone suddenly feels a LOT more expensive than some "good enough" alternatives - Storage - 16GB is ridiculous at this point and Apple will have to go up to 32GB as base, likely this year. This is going to impact ASPs, as fewer people will feel compelled to jump to the next tier - Global economic uncertainty - hopefully this is temporary but we're in shaky times right now. As far as I know, Apple does not typically raise price on existing products (apart from international FX adjustments). The 5.5" phone was basically a new product. We need new products. I tend to agree that 16GB isn't enough. BUT then I look around and see so many single-application iPhones where 16GB is more than enough to accomplish the one task that a particular iPhone is meant for. Things like POS devices (at flea markets, carried by flight attendants on planes, etc) mainly. True, but the longer this goes on the more they risk alienating a lot of people. The cost difference between 16GB and 32GB is literally a couple of dollars. Apple has gotten away with this free money for a long time but it has to end soon. People are not going to be happy to pay an extra $100 for a tiny amount of storage, especially when they are on the hook for the entire cost of the phone outright.
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mark
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Post by mark on Jun 15, 2016 5:53:43 GMT -8
I tend to agree that 16GB isn't enough. BUT then I look around and see so many single-application iPhones where 16GB is more than enough to accomplish the one task that a particular iPhone is meant for. Things like POS devices (at flea markets, carried by flight attendants on planes, etc) mainly. True, but the longer this goes on the more they risk alienating a lot of people. The cost difference between 16GB and 32GB is literally a couple of dollars. Apple has gotten away with this free money for a long time but it has to end soon. People are not going to be happy to pay an extra $100 for a tiny amount of storage, especially when they are on the hook for the entire cost of the phone outright. What??? Apple is giving those single application folks a HUGE $100 discount on the product while only removing a 3 or 4 dollar part! I think they are delighted about that. All those POS cases, school application restricted cases, etc are saving lots and lots of money over having to buy the 32 or 64 GB version of which they will never use more than 16GB.
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Post by tuffett on Jun 15, 2016 7:00:46 GMT -8
True, but the longer this goes on the more they risk alienating a lot of people. The cost difference between 16GB and 32GB is literally a couple of dollars. Apple has gotten away with this free money for a long time but it has to end soon. People are not going to be happy to pay an extra $100 for a tiny amount of storage, especially when they are on the hook for the entire cost of the phone outright. What??? Apple is giving those single application folks a HUGE $100 discount on the product while only removing a 3 or 4 dollar part! I think they are delighted about that. All those POS cases, school application restricted cases, etc are saving lots and lots of money over having to buy the 32 or 64 GB version of which they will never use more than 16GB. I'm pretty sure people don't see it that way...the base model is already quite a stretch for most people now with the subsidy gone, and we are seeing the effects right before our eyes.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,555
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Post by mark on Jun 15, 2016 8:29:36 GMT -8
What??? Apple is giving those single application folks a HUGE $100 discount on the product while only removing a 3 or 4 dollar part! I think they are delighted about that. All those POS cases, school application restricted cases, etc are saving lots and lots of money over having to buy the 32 or 64 GB version of which they will never use more than 16GB. I'm pretty sure people don't see it that way...the base model is already quite a stretch for most people now with the subsidy gone, and we are seeing the effects right before our eyes. Ahhh, I must have misunderstood you. You are saying, in essence, that Apple should cut the price of all their products by $100. I wonder what that would do to margins, it definitely won't be pretty!
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Post by tuffett on Jun 15, 2016 9:54:09 GMT -8
I'm pretty sure people don't see it that way...the base model is already quite a stretch for most people now with the subsidy gone, and we are seeing the effects right before our eyes. Ahhh, I must have misunderstood you. You are saying, in essence, that Apple should cut the price of all their products by $100. I wonder what that would do to margins, it definitely won't be pretty! Nope, I'm saying that 16GB as the base model is no longer adequate. It forced people to jump from 16 to 64 for an extra which was fantastic for margins and ASPs, but if and when the phone starts at 32GB fewer people will have the need to jump. As for dropping prices, I think it might one day be an eventuality, but not for a few years yet. Once the install base starts to flatten out would be a good time to attract more consumers to keep services growing. Hopefully by then we'll be onto the next big thing to cover the gap (car?).
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