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Post by rickag on Jun 20, 2016 3:19:15 GMT -8
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Post by incorrigible on Jun 20, 2016 4:10:03 GMT -8
Recent exit polls showing Brexit doubtful. Markets rallying.
On the AAPL front, from Seeking Alpha:
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Post by mrentropy on Jun 20, 2016 7:55:37 GMT -8
Well, pretty much looking like we close red at this rate. I'm on vacation, haven't been paying attention, but anyone know levels to watch? I imagine 92 is in play again, any thoughts.
I am also considering moving a sizable stake out of AAPL. Too late I know, but I'm at a loss of where to go with it. TSLA just scares me as a stock, so overvalued no matter how much you like Elon. Perhaps AMZN? Anyone other suggestions to look at?
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,431
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Post by chinacat on Jun 20, 2016 7:59:39 GMT -8
Ben Bajarin's take on WWDC is iOS: The Runtime System for InnovationHere is the money quote, literally: "Apple’s customers remain the most valuable group of humans on the planet which adds to the economic incentives for the focus on iOS and users of the platform. But the big picture observation most interesting to me is that iOS will be the platform where consumers will get the best of all worlds. The best of Apple, the best of Microsoft, the best of Google, the best of Amazon, the best of the startup and entrepreneurial software community, and slowly but surely, the best of the business world. The best of every company’s software and services efforts will be on iOS. This is not something I can say of any other platform. It is not true of Windows, as much as Microsoft hopes it will be with Windows 10, and it is not true of Android."
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,431
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Post by chinacat on Jun 20, 2016 8:26:42 GMT -8
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Post by tuffett on Jun 20, 2016 8:31:16 GMT -8
That's a great quote. As a platform iOS is only going to get stronger. But as an investor the question remains: how well can Apple monetize software? iOS updates are free, and already some of the best apps are free (eg all the best of Google). Are we going to see people paying more for software in the future, or less? I think it could go either way.
As we stand today, it seems like Apple was caught flat footed with the declining sales of all their major hardware lines and has switched to focus on software far too abruptly. It's also an effect of maturing product lines, which is out of Apple's control. I guess it all depends on what's "behind the curtain", but if it's just another low-margin service to strengthen the ecosystem like Apple Pay, that's simply not enough to get back on the growth track.
The iPhone upgrade program is a great idea but came online far too late. It should have been a few years ago when there were significant annual improvements to iPhone. Those people would be somewhat locked in to upgrading annually even today, but I think a lot of people have changed their minds on upgrade cycle over the past couple of years.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jun 20, 2016 8:58:25 GMT -8
No amount of growth in services will make up for continued decline in hardware sales. Any medium term bull case for Apple is dependent on hardware sales improving....
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Post by firestorm on Jun 20, 2016 9:15:24 GMT -8
The stickiness of the Apple ecosystem was an idea that was oversold, and rooted in an era when people paid a great deal for music and software. As a photographer, it used to be that I was locked into Apple (or, for others, Windows) because Adobe products were expensive and to change ecosystems meant a heavy new investment. That is no longer the case since Adobe changed to a subscription model for Photoshop and Lightroom.
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Post by tuffett on Jun 20, 2016 9:55:58 GMT -8
This is my fear as well. Software revenue just isn't big enough, except for in the enterprise, and Microsoft has a lock on productivity suite there. If they were to lose that lock it would be because there are free alternatives, so either way no benefit to Apple.
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Post by mace on Jun 20, 2016 11:15:20 GMT -8
Cost control. Can Apple make more with the slightly more? If hardware revenue is dropping, can Apple use less people, and less tools?
archibaldtuttle - You are assuming decline in hardware revenue is faster than the growth of services revenue. Could be true for one year, may be second year...
tuffet - Software is given higher P/E, so having more software revenue is better right?
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,431
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Post by chinacat on Jun 20, 2016 11:24:36 GMT -8
For the nerdier folks among you, I just got around to watching the video version of John Gruber's "The Talk Show" review of WWDC with Phil Schiller and Craig Federighi and found it to be both informative and entertaining. However, if you wait just a few minutes, I am sure that there will be more negative views posted here shortly.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jun 20, 2016 12:25:45 GMT -8
For the nerdier folks among you, I just got around to watching the video version of John Gruber's "The Talk Show" review of WWDC with Phil Schiller and Craig Federighi and found it to be both informative and entertaining. However, if you wait just a few minutes, I am sure that there will be more negative views posted here shortly. I alway appreciate your enthusiasm, your insight AND your sense of humor.
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Post by mrentropy on Jun 20, 2016 12:52:15 GMT -8
I don't feel I'm being negative, but I am certainly not being positive about the stock. It's been said many times: Apple the company is doing fine, AAPL the stock is very broken. I wish I had realized it sooner, but I was too positive on Apple the company. I'm not saying it doesn't have brighter days ahead, I have no idea. However it is pretty obvious that fewer people want to own it in the short term.
I'm holding a significant amount of very underwater bull put spreads in July, October and January and expect to take some pretty significant losses which does color my opinion. I'm trying to decide how to deal with it, in the past I have rolled the positions further out, but I don't have enough confidence in the stock to do that now. We'll see how it goes. It appears I learned very little from 2013, but this time the recovery is going to be harder.
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Post by rickag on Jun 20, 2016 14:54:58 GMT -8
For the nerdier folks among you, I just got around to watching the video version of John Gruber's "The Talk Show" review of WWDC with Phil Schiller and Craig Federighi and found it to be both informative and entertaining. However, if you wait just a few minutes, I am sure that there will be more negative views posted here shortly. Watched it and was impressed. Thanks for the link.
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Post by tuffett on Jun 20, 2016 15:21:07 GMT -8
The negative view has been the correct one for a good part of the last 4 years. That's a good chunk of time during a nice bull market. I also saw it too late. Never fall in love with a stock. For every success story like Luckychoices there are countless stories that end in misery.
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Post by incorrigible on Jun 21, 2016 4:16:47 GMT -8
Stage one Stage 1 is the stage right after a prolonged downtrend. This stock has been going down but now it is starting to trade sideways forming a base. The sellers who once had the upper hand are now beginning to lose their power because of the buyers starting to get more aggressive. The stock just drifts sideways without a clear trend. Everyone hates this stock! Stage two Finally stocks break out into Stage 2 and begins the uptrend. Oh, the glory of stage 2!! Sometimes I have dreams of stocks in Stage 2! This is where the majority of the money is made in the stock market. But here is the funny thing: No one believes the rally! That's right, everyone still hates the stock. The fundamentals are bad, the outlook is negative, etc. But professional traders know better. They are accumulating shares and getting ready to dump it off to those getting in late. This sets up stage 3. Stage three Finally, after the glorious advance of stage 2, the stock begins to trade sideways again and starts to "churn". Novice traders are just now getting in! This stage is very similar to stage 1. Buyers and sellers move into equilibrium again and the stock just drifts along. It is now ready to begin the next stage. Stage four This is the dreaded downtrend for those that are long this stock. But, you know what the funny thing is? You guessed it. Nobody believes the downtrend! The fundamentals are probably still very good and everyone still loves this stock. They think the downtrend is just a "correction". Wrong! They hold and hold and hold, hoping it will reverse back up again. They probably bought at the end of Stage 2 or during Stage 3. Appropriate avatar.
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Post by mrentropy on Jun 21, 2016 6:47:18 GMT -8
Stage one Stage 1 is the stage right after a prolonged downtrend. This stock has been going down but now it is starting to trade sideways forming a base. The sellers who once had the upper hand are now beginning to lose their power because of the buyers starting to get more aggressive. The stock just drifts sideways without a clear trend. Everyone hates this stock! Stage two Finally stocks break out into Stage 2 and begins the uptrend. Oh, the glory of stage 2!! Sometimes I have dreams of stocks in Stage 2! This is where the majority of the money is made in the stock market. But here is the funny thing: No one believes the rally! That's right, everyone still hates the stock. The fundamentals are bad, the outlook is negative, etc. But professional traders know better. They are accumulating shares and getting ready to dump it off to those getting in late. This sets up stage 3. Stage three Finally, after the glorious advance of stage 2, the stock begins to trade sideways again and starts to "churn". Novice traders are just now getting in! This stage is very similar to stage 1. Buyers and sellers move into equilibrium again and the stock just drifts along. It is now ready to begin the next stage. Stage four This is the dreaded downtrend for those that are long this stock. But, you know what the funny thing is? You guessed it. Nobody believes the downtrend! The fundamentals are probably still very good and everyone still loves this stock. They think the downtrend is just a "correction". Wrong! They hold and hold and hold, hoping it will reverse back up again. They probably bought at the end of Stage 2 or during Stage 3. Great post, thanks for that. The big question is are we in Stage 1 or Stage 4?
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Post by mace on Jun 21, 2016 8:11:15 GMT -8
Wave personality Wave 1 (stock price rallying): Fundamental news is universal negative. Analysts continue to revise their earnings estimate lower. Wave 2 (stock price declining): Fundamentals news is still bad but some positive signs appear. Sentiments is still bearish. Wave 3 (stock price rallying): Fundamentals news is initially bearish, gradually becomes bullish and analysts start revising estimates higher. Wave 4 (stock price declining): Fundamentals news is bullish yet price meanders. Wave 5 (stock price rallying): Fundamentals are universal positive and everybody is bullish. Average investors finally buy-in and bears are universally ridiculed. The BIG fall is coming. The big fall: Fundamental is still positive initially, gradually change to negative. Analysts start revising their earning estimate lower. The big fall ends when everybody realizes that a bear market is firmly entrenched.
Where are we?
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Post by mace on Jun 21, 2016 8:16:32 GMT -8
mrentropy,
The decline will end only if almost everybody become bearish and recognize that AAPL is in a bear market. Are we there yet?
$89.47 could be it... pundits think is high $70s to low $80s.
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Post by incorrigible on Jun 21, 2016 8:38:53 GMT -8
Speaking of waves Mace, any read on EW theory? Still doing that?
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Post by mrentropy on Jun 21, 2016 14:09:43 GMT -8
mrentropy, The decline will end only if almost everybody become bearish and recognize that AAPL is in a bear market. Are we there yet? $89.47 could be it... pundits think is high $70s to low $80s. Mace, That is kind of my question. There was a massive amount of negativity when we breached 92, myself included. Was that it or are we going to test the low 80s? The answer to that could make you rich.
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Post by mace on Jun 21, 2016 16:26:03 GMT -8
mrentropy, The decline will end only if almost everybody become bearish and recognize that AAPL is in a bear market. Are we there yet? $89.47 could be it... pundits think is high $70s to low $80s. Mace, That is kind of my question. There was a massive amount of negativity when we breached 92, myself included. Was that it or are we going to test the low 80s? The answer to that could make you rich. If you're trading shares, $89, $95 or high $78 don't make much different. However, is very different if you're trading options... timing is critical... strike price and which month is critical.
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Post by mace on Jun 21, 2016 16:32:21 GMT -8
mrentropy,
Highly possible that $89.47 is the multi-month bottom. IV collapses instead of usual inflated, during the dive, signs of longs giving up. I would prefer one more dive below $90 to confirm.
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Post by sponge on Jun 21, 2016 18:08:56 GMT -8
I am waiting for that dive as well below 90. It will depend on what eps Apple reports.
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