True that. I only see your typically arrogant posts when others quote you - or when I choose to look, which is rarely. I love the way people on this board are deferential to you (they
"respectfully disagree"), but you don't feel the need to return the favor.
Don't lie - the "feeble" part of my post wasn't quoted. Looks like you secretly love my posts! I don't blame you
I don't get much respect here, by the way. I'm encouraged to sell my stock and go away.
I obviously can't speak for anyone else on the board but I certainly don't want you to sell your shares and go away, tuffet. In fact, I don't want ANYONE holding AAPL shares to sell them.
But I think it's reasonable to expect that all the folks on the board, who are invested in AAPL, one way or another, should be able to disagree on subjects related to Apple/AAPL without the animosity seen in recent posts. Several members, including myself, have been involved in this recent trail of harsh responses and I readily admit to finding it difficult to not reply in kind when responses to my posts are particularly brusk. I hope we can all dial it back a little.
Not picking on you, tuffet, but I included the first 20 or so your initial posts to this board (from January 2013) in this response. I went back and looked at the posts because it seems lately you're particularly upset about what Apple management is doing, or not doing, and I was curious if this was a recent concern. It's not, because you voiced some of the same concerns three and a half years ago. You made the posts at a time when AAPL was on it's way down from around $700 and was $485.92 on the first post, 01/15/13. AAPL was going to continue to drop another $95 or so until it bottomed out on 04/15/13 at $390.53. Speaking for myself, I would find it hard to be civil on this board if I'd had that feeling about Apple management for this long and in fact, would find it difficult to remain a shareholder. I must admit that I found your reference to a Forbes article: "Why The WSJ Got The 'iPhone Demand Is Crashing' Story All Wrong" somewhat amusing since many FUD masters are writing similar stories 3.5 years later and I think the present stories are as mistaken as the ones in 2013.
Again, I don't think we need to get together and sing kumbaya, but I hope we can avoid bashing each other in our posts. It doesn't make this board a pleasant place to visit and with AAPL still in the doldrums, it's good to have a site like this where we can discuss all things Apple/AAPL related and, in some cases, vent our concerns.
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tuffett
Member
Monday, 01/28/13: $449.83
Jan 28, 2013 at 2:05pm
Post by tuffett on Jan 28, 2013 at 2:05pm
Xphilos Avatar
Jan 28, 2013 at 1:26pm Xphilos said:
Jan 28, 2013 at 1:15pm sponge said:
Yes and No.
For employees who get stock options and get hired today, they hope to retire some time with the stock moving up.
Other then that, I guess just reputation and respect in the overall business community. They have that by being the most profitable and worth the most.
Nothing to worry about short term.
We closed below 450 but not much. Happy never the less.
Thanks, Sponge. I'm just trying to make sense of the current situation. My feeling is that hunger motivates people. If Apple needed to raise money this year, their handling of investor relations would look a lot different. Without the "hunger" all they have left to motivate them are intangibles like street cred. I have to wonder if their winning profitability and huge cash hoard aren't insulating them from stock performance. If the stock price goes to zero, will one employee quit or one person turn down a job at Apple? Will they sell one less iPhone?
Not many mature, cash generating companies need to raise funds. That does not mean they don't care about shareholders. In fact, many of them are extremely committed to shareholder interests (e.g. Consistent buybacks, decades of dividend increases).
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tuffett
Member
Monday, 01/28/13: $449.83
Jan 28, 2013 at 12:22pm
Post by tuffett on Jan 28, 2013 at 12:22pm
Rumours are heating up about the lower cost iPhone. Seems similar to the buildup to the iPad Mini. I think it could have a large cannibalization effect over the the top of the line iPhone, so Apple needs to be careful how to launch it. I'm thinking an initial exclusive contract with China Mobile. 700M consumer base should easily handle the supply capabilities of a new product, and the rest of the world continues buying regular iPhones. Then gradually introduce the product into less affluent markets (including Europe now). Stay away from North America as long as possible citing too much 3rd world demand. This should strike a big blow to Android/Samsung while minimizing damage to the iPhone line and increasing revenue and iOS userbase.
Thoughts?
tuffett
Member
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Monday, 01/28/13: $449.83
Jan 28, 2013 at 10:53am
Post by tuffett on Jan 28, 2013 at 10:53am
From Cook's town hall meeting:
Cook further added, likely referring to gas and fuel juggernaut Exxon, that “the only companies that report better quarters pump oil.” “I do not know about you all, but I do not want to work for those companies,” Cook reportedly said. This portion of Cook’s talk reunited employees in disbelief over Apple’s stock price decline and restated how great of a company Apple is to work for.
Cook also reportedly made it clear that share price is not Apple’s focus. Making new products that customers love is the priority. Revenue and share price is just a by-product of Apple’s efforts. Cook said that he believes that Apple employees agree with that sentiment. He also said that Apple is commonly misunderstood and that the company will always have critics, no matter how successful it is by Apple’s standards.
I'm going to have to call bullshit. Does he think we're all stupid? If he only cares about products and making consumers love them, why sell at such a premium to competitors? Why not cut margins during times of oversupply to get more products in the hands of loving consumers? Why keep holding out on hundreds of carriers?
If you don't care about share price, why do a buyback and dividend at all? Either you care or you don't. Stop half-assing it.
Of course you care about profit (and by extension, share price), Tim. Why don't you stop pretending not to, and maybe your obscene profits can translate into a respectable multiple.
Last Edit: Jan 28, 2013 at 10:56am by tuffet
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tuffet
Member
Monday, 01/28/13: $449.83
Jan 28, 2013 at 7:34am
Post by tuffett on Jan 28, 2013 at 7:34am
I've been following since 2005.
With respect, Apple is not Netflix. Most people probably don't even know Netflix is publicly traded and have no clue about their share price. Not the same with Apple - it's everywhere and impossible to avoid.
I know from your past posts that you are not defending them, but could you think of a reason why they can't be more transparent to their investors? I completely understand for products but to use the same nonchalant, canned lines on conference calls over and over again is tiresome.
Last Edit: Jan 28, 2013 at 7:39am by tuffet
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tuffett
Member
Monday, 01/28/13: $449.83
Jan 28, 2013 at 7:27am
Post by tuffett on Jan 28, 2013 at 7:27am
Mav, we have now reached levels rarely seen before since Apple became a juggernaut. The conference call was last week which gave them the chance to address the issue.
"Normal" people are talking about this one. I'm hearing about from people who don't know anything about investing and they now think Apple is in serious trouble. Is it a stretch to think that this could impact their future buying decisions? I don't think so. I don't remember a case as bad as this.
With an almost sure YoY EPS decline next quarter (barring a buyback), management should have been more aggressive in addressing the issue. All they did was open the door for more downside, almost as if they don't care or even don't mind if it happens. Last Edit: Jan 28, 2013 at 7:30am by tuffet
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tuffett
Member
Monday, 01/28/13: $449.83
Jan 28, 2013 at 7:06am
Post by tuffett on Jan 28, 2013 at 7:06am
I agree. This silence and tiptoeing by management about the important questions is borderline negligence. Perception is reality, and the public is now starting to perceive that Apple is in big trouble, their products aren't selling and there are better and cheaper alternatives. Lumping that all together equals a massive and possibly irreparable hit to their brand image. It all stems from the stock price. I am utterly disgusted with Cook and Oppenheimer right now, and it's only partly because my portfolio is in tatters.
Is it so incredibly hard to talk about the disconnect between share price and company performance in a conference call for investors? I'm now seeing why AAPL has always traded at a discount - management's blatant disregard and ignorance of investors. It was all fine and dandy on the way with torrid growth but in times like this it becomes evident why AAPL has always been relatively cheap
Last Edit: Jan 28, 2013 at 7:11am by tuffet
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tuffett
Member
AFB2 Quotes: Laughter is the Best Medicine
Jan 27, 2013 at 8:19am Quote
Post by tuffett on Jan 27, 2013 at 8:19am
Ignore list candidate
Ignore list candidate
Ignore list candidate
Ignore list candidate
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tuffett
Member
The Whinery
Jan 26, 2013 at 4:08pm Quote
Post by tuffett on Jan 26, 2013 at 4:08pm
I've been holding it in for too long. Here goes. Sorry to anyone I offend.
- Why the fuck has the number of outstanding shares increased? Piss poor cash management, piss poor decision making. What exactly is Oppenheimer being paid to do, besides confuse everyone in the most important earnings call in recent memory? Buy back some fucking shares. And by some, I mean a lot. If the CFO is more concerned about products instead of cash management, investor relations and what to do with an obscene amount of cash, I don't want him around.
- Management needs to stop playing cute and acting special. Apple is a publicly traded company and earnings calls are for investors, not consumers. When you're talking about earnings, I don't give two shits about your laser focus on making products. Start talking about how you are going to support the stock and provide value for investors.
- Stop guiding huge YoY declines and claiming they are more accurate. Unless of course it is true, in which case things are going to get even uglier.
- Why in the hell is a two year old phone (iPhone 4) in supply constraint for an entire quarter? I completely understand iPhone 5 supply issues, but this?! Samsung is easily able to sell far more smartphones and ten times as many models. What gives?
Tim Cook, how about living up to your supply chain master handle instead of supply chain moron? - Get a deal done with China Mobile. Your margins are already slipping anyway, might as well lock up a chunk of China before it's too late.
- Why is a guy who placed 67th out of 68 polled analysts acting like he is God's gift to Earth and threatening to ignore people? Does he honestly think anybody cares? Internal numbers, P/C ratios - I can't wait to see what he comes up with next before proceeding to insult or ignore everyone who doesn't agree. Biggest ego on the board and building a stellar track record of epic failure. Funny how that works.
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tuffett
Member
Friday, 01/18/13: $500.00
Jan 18, 2013 at 10:13am
Post by tuffett on Jan 18, 2013 at 10:13am
The article does raise a valid point about the interests of the execs being decoupled from shareholders. They are largely unconcerned about dividends, and psychologically it's a lot worse to be holding shares that suffer a 30% decline than having options vesting far into the future. This could help explains Apple's rather carefree attitude in regards to the stock.
Last Edit: Jan 18, 2013 at 10:30am by tuffet
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tuffett
Member
Friday, 01/18/13: $500.00
Jan 18, 2013 at 8:44am
Post by tuffett on Jan 18, 2013 at 8:44am
Interesting piece here...thoughts?
beta.fool.com/equitybull/2013/01/17/do-apple-executives-have-skin-game/21754/?source=eogyholnk0000001
Last Edit: Jan 18, 2013 at 8:44am by tuffet
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tuffett
Member
Tuesday, 01/15/13: $485.92
Jan 15, 2013 at 5:04pm
Post by tuffett on Jan 15, 2013 at 5:04pm
Jan 15, 2013 at 4:29pm phoebear611 said:
Hope some of these stories - like the earlier one posted here from Yahoo Finance - and now this Forbes one - would get picked up by the media outlets but I guess that's asking for too much because only negativity gets the ratings.
Forbes article:
"Why The WSJ Got The 'iPhone Demand Is Crashing' Story All Wrongwww.forbes.com/sites/markrogowsky/2013/01/15/did-the-wsj-get-punkd-on-apple-or-is-it-rotten-to-the-core/Exactly. I smelled BS at the 65M number right away and many others including Prazan put together some perfectly decent numbers using "half" of 65M. Funny how all you need is an ounce of common sense, yet such easily discounted "news" is enough to tank an already sold off stock another 7% in two days and mess with the minds of supposedly good analysts, or "professionals."
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tuffett
Member
Tuesday, 01/15/13: $485.92
Jan 15, 2013 at 2:49pm
Post by tuffett on Jan 15, 2013 at 2:49pm
Jan 15, 2013 at 1:39pm @greggthurman said:
Think it through.
PO guided lower GM due to increased costs
www.networkworld.com/community/blog/did-apple-slash-iphone-display-orders-due-improving-yieldsThis would constitute increased costs.
iPhone share of the US market eclipsed all of Android for the first time during the December quarter (exceeding 50%).
ahhh, Piss on it. There is so much evidence that Apple blew away estimates as to be be ridiculous. I'm not going to relist them all again.
People that want to become investors should be required to take a reading comprehension test before being allowed to put others' investments at risk with their sky is falling fear of losing a couple dollars mentality. They should also be required to have themselves tested for the existence of gonads. Investing is not the same thing as putting your money in a bank CD. If you don't have the heart for it, you shouldn't do it.
And for god's sake STOP WHINING. THE ACTION ON THE FORUM IS GETTING DOWN RIGHT BORING. Nobody knows why anything ever happens, SO STOP ASKING. Instead read something that didn't come from a blogger that knows less than you do, but has the ability (through a liberal arts education) to construct a 500 word article, that sounds like something, on demand.
Don't watch CNBC, FNC or MSNBC. Don't read Seeking Alpha or any site that allows comments. The vast majority of comments are written by people dumber than you.
Read recognized research firms' market share analysis, watch what the big boys are doing, and don't invest one dime more than you can afford to lose. Then when you do lose it, DON'T FUCKING WHINE ABOUT IT.
Pot, meet kettle. I can't count the number of times I've seen you whine about missing an entry, order not getting filled, getting out of a position too soon etc. Are you being serious?
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tuffett
Member
Tuesday, 01/15/13: $485.92
Jan 15, 2013 at 2:39pm
Post by tuffett on Jan 15, 2013 at 2:39pm
Jan 15, 2013 at 1:22pm Lstream said:
Jan 15, 2013 at 12:56pm @burgess said:
thats not really fair - he did a lot of interviews last month remember? He repeatedly said "Don't bet against Apple!"
+1. I am getting flabbergasted at what I am seeing here. Everyone looking for someone to "blame" when their investment decisions go bad. I am getting clobbered, but it is my responsibility not someone else's. Honestly, when I read these posts it is beginning to convince me that many here should not be in the market at all. So much irrationality. This kind of shit is part of the territory whether we like it or not. Don't expect Tim to wave some magic wand to fix your boo-boos. Suck it up.
It's not too much to ask for management to manage capital effectively for the benefit of shareholders. Yes, I've been more vocal about it recently but only because it makes more and more sense the lower we go. I have been supportive of a buyback for a while.
All decisions have been mine, but if management is not starting to put a good chunk of that $130B to good use, then I certainly will blame them. I don't blame them for the selloff but when all is said and done, if they did not take advantage it they will have made a mistake. Again - look at what a $10B buyback in 2008 would have done. We'd be looking at $16-17 EPS instead of $14-15 (and an additional 10% for every earnings in between). We may or may not have reached these lows anyway but if we did it would be an even more compelling buy. Instead, we have $130B instead of $120B which is not given any value by the market anyway.
A buyback is not a magic wand. It's an extremely effective tool when used correctly.
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tuffett
Member
Tuesday, 01/15/13: $485.92
Jan 15, 2013 at 1:00pm
Post by tuffett on Jan 15, 2013 at 1:00pm
Jan 15, 2013 at 12:56pm @burgess said:
Jan 15, 2013 at 12:52pm icam said:
This shareholder is wondering WTFITC (Where The F*ck Is Tim Cook)!
A CEO has to be able to do many things and wear many hats. How TC can pull a complete disappearing act when the stock price declines 33% (705 down to 485) and is trading at the cheap valuation that it is, is beyond me. Hey, I want the guy to succeed as much as anybody, but, the way he's handled this past 3 months borders on incompetent.
Again I ask, WTFITC?
thats not really fair - he did a lot of interviews last month remember? He repeatedly said "Don't bet against Apple!"
Clearly he was wrong. Ever since that interview, betting against Apple was the best play possible.
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tuffett
Member
Tuesday, 01/15/13: $485.92
Jan 15, 2013 at 12:49pm
Post by tuffett on Jan 15, 2013 at 12:49pm
Al, how are you unsure if a buyback would help? The stock is trading under 11 P/E, under 8 ex-cash. Cash is earning around 1%. Stock is going to go up >1% (I would hope...). Unless Apple is planning to build their own cell network or a space station, there is more cash than they know what to do with, and it is accumulating at $50B/yr.
If you are even the slightest but bullish about Apple as a company, then buying back the stock at these levels is a no brainier. Just as a what-if,
if Apple spent a measly $10B on a buyback in 2008 at around $100/share, we'd be looking at a ~10% boost to EPS. Tell me that doesn't make a difference over time.
Last Edit: Jan 15, 2013 at 12:52pm by tuffet
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tuffett
Member
Tuesday, 01/15/13: $485.92
Jan 15, 2013 at 12:27pm
Post by tuffett on Jan 15, 2013 at 12:27pm
I couldn't care less about setting a new precedent because the current precedent is that anybody can say anything about Apple and anybody can do anything to AAPL and the company will be a silent punching bag. It's kind of hard to worry about setting a new precedent when this is the way things currently are.
Turning the other cheek worked when Apple was in hyper growth. Now that they're the top dog, a lot of people dislike them just because they are so successful, and they are target of every company in the field.
They need to defend their territory, and the stock price is included in that. All these hit pieces do no good to Apple's image.
Last Edit: Jan 15, 2013 at 12:28pm by tuffet
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tuffett
Member
Tuesday, 01/15/13: $485.92
Jan 15, 2013 at 8:40am
Post by tuffett on Jan 15, 2013 at 8:40am
Jan 15, 2013 at 8:28am
vitalogy80 said:
Well all I have to say is PO better have something to say regarding stock price and buybacks on the conference call next week or I'm outta here. If AAPL can be manipulated this much without any support from Apple, then it's not worth being invested. Apple has more cash than any single company.
"Ohhh, Goldman Sachs...you're trying to bring AAPL down to $400? Well, we've got 25 times as much cash as you, are you sure you want to play that game?"
No kidding. If I hear the words "dry powder" "laser focus" or "north star" in response to cash management I'm going to be seriously pissed off.
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tuffett
Member
Tuesday, 01/15/13: $485.92
Jan 15, 2013 at 7:20am
Post by tuffett on Jan 15, 2013 at 7:20am
Tetrachloride Avatar
Jan 15, 2013 at 7:14am Tetrachloride said:
I've long been in the camp of being pro-active and pro-PR in the Apple DNA for its customers and investors, notably Mac vs. PC.
Which is to say, what the H do we pay Oppenheimer for ?
-------
link please, fas ?
Starting to wonder this myself. Is his goal to create as much uncertainty and volatility as possible? This was all well and good when AAPL was growing at ridiculous rate but now it's slowing and capital management needs to change accordingly.
Sorry everyone. I'm just venting and extremely pissed off.
Last Edit: Jan 15, 2013 at 7:21am by tuffet
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tuffett
Member
Tuesday, 01/15/13: $485.92
Jan 15, 2013 at 7:06am
Post by tuffett on Jan 15, 2013 at 7:06am
I could have done better with literally any other stock on the Nasdaq. It's sickening. When there is such a large disconnect between products/performance and share price for this long, something has got to happen. If Apple isn't buying back stock right now, then I fear they may know something we don't, and the future may not be so rosy. I'm sick and tired of $130B sitting around doing nothing and completely disvalued by the market. I don't give two shits if its mostly overseas - there are ways around it.
Last Edit: Jan 15, 2013 at 7:09am by tuffet
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tuffett
Member
Tuesday, 01/15/13: $485.92
Jan 15, 2013 at 6:51am
Post by tuffett on Jan 15, 2013 at 6:51am
Shit.
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