Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jul 13, 2016 2:15:05 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Jul 13, 2016 3:00:30 GMT -8
Still think they should have bought Spotify....whatever.
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Post by rickag on Jul 13, 2016 3:43:31 GMT -8
Still think they should have bought Spotify....whatever. You may be correct, but if they had and then eliminated all free subscriptions the media fallout would be horrendous.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jul 13, 2016 3:52:58 GMT -8
Still think they should have bought Spotify....whatever. You may be correct, but if they had and then eliminated all free subscriptions the media fallout would be horrendous. Yes, you're right but I would have expected some better paradigm than simply elimination of free subscriptions. Perhaps they could have deployed the money ill spent for Dr. Dre and Iovine and used their collective creative genius to come up with something more special. It is what it is.
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Post by tuffett on Jul 13, 2016 6:05:49 GMT -8
Apple Music is a me-too product that is considered inferior to Spotify by most. I myself haven't tried Spotify but what I can say is that Apple Musis is rife with glitches and has a horrible user interface. I hope the iOS 10 update is better. Meanwhile, the Mac lineup is being neglected and sales are therefore following the negative PC trend,, iPad sales are half what they used to be and we all know about the iPhone. What's in the pipeline is the big wildcard. One can only hope that the massive amount of money they're spending is going to translate into a stellar mass-market product.
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Post by Apple II+ on Jul 13, 2016 6:48:18 GMT -8
This Leonard Cohen song has been running through my head all day....... Everybody knows that the dice are loaded Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed Everybody knows that the war is over Everybody knows that the good guys lost Everybody knows the fight is fixed The poor stay poor and the rich get rich That's how it goes Everybody knows Hmmm... a psychoanalyst might say your subconscious fear is that Tim Cook is the captain of the boat in the song lyrics... "Everybody knows that the boat is leaking. Everybody knows that the captain lied. Everybody got this broken feeling. Like their father or their dog just died"
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Post by gtrplyr on Jul 13, 2016 6:51:31 GMT -8
You may be correct, but if they had and then eliminated all free subscriptions the media fallout would be horrendous. Yes, you're right but I would have expected some better paradigm than simply elimination of free subscriptions. Perhaps they could have deployed the money ill spent for Dr. Dre and Iovine and used their collective creative genius to come up with something more special. It is what it is. Just to pile on .... Throw Angela Ahrendts in along with Dre and Iovine. All three have produced NOTHING that I can see and have cost Apple a boatload of money that could have been used elsewhere with a little foresight ... Buying waze, spotify, netflix ... etc. I love Tim's approach to many things but I have to call into question the practice of paying high salaries to big name people that don't seem to add value to the company. On another note , Asia seems to be making a pretty big turnaround in terms of growth. We've gone from gloom and doom to hearing about big growth again ... hopefully this will help our stock price. Cheers to the longs ....
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,353
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Post by bud777 on Jul 13, 2016 8:00:42 GMT -8
This Leonard Cohen song has been running through my head all day....... Everybody knows that the dice are loaded Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed Everybody knows that the war is over Everybody knows that the good guys lost Everybody knows the fight is fixed The poor stay poor and the rich get rich That's how it goes Everybody knows Hmmm... a psychoanalyst might say your subconscious fear is that Tim Cook is the captain of the boat in the song lyrics... "Everybody knows that the boat is leaking. Everybody knows that the captain lied. Everybody got this broken feeling. Like their father or their dog just died" I think it was more the first two lines and the way that the market seems to value Apple so irrationally. I have no problem with Cook. I think that Akerlof and Shiller got it right in their book "Phishing for Phools". While most economic theory is based on investors making rational choices based on their own self interest, there is clear evidence that any system that we can create will be gamed by those looking for an edge. Without active and aggressive oversight, this allows the market to become distorted. There are so many smart people out there with such vast resources that I don't think the SEC can ever catch up. Noah Smith has an interesting view on this at: bv.ms/29tcQ7C
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Post by artman1033 on Jul 13, 2016 8:34:01 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Jul 13, 2016 8:48:05 GMT -8
From LAST year actual: Revenue for the March quarter was $58 billion, an increase of $12.4 billion or 27% year over year. seekingalpha.com/article/3107596-apples-aapl-ceo-tim-cook-on-q2-2015-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=singleFrom this April: We expect revenue to be between $41 billion and $43 billion. The revenue guidance implies a year-over-year decline as we lap an incredibly strong June quarter last year where revenue grew 33%, due in part to accelerated iPhone upgrade purchases. This tough compare is compounded by the continued weak macro environment this year and the strong U.S. dollar, which affects our revenue growth in international markets. Embedded in this guidance is a planned channel inventory reduction worth over $2 billion, as we have elected to be prudent about our channel inventory position given the current macro environment. The guidance also reflects a range of possible scenarios related to how quickly we can get into supply/demand balance for iPhone SE. Due to these factors, our expected demand is greater than the revenue range implies. Sequentially, our guidance implies a revenue decline of 15% to 19%, which is comparable to the 17% sequential decline that we've averaged from the March to June quarter for the last three years, despite the anticipated channel inventory adjustments I just described. We expect seasonal sequential declines in iPhone and iPad sales and a sequential increase in Mac sales. We also expect iPhone ASPs to decline sequentially as we get farther from the launch of iPhone 6s and iPhone 6s Plus and as iPhone SE enters the mix. We know that our revenue guidance falls short of market estimates for the third quarter. We believe the difference comes primarily from three areas: first, the $2 billion-plus channel inventory reduction I just mentioned; second, the effect of the channel inventory reduction and the launch of iPhone SE on iPhone ASPs, as well as the current constrained supply of iPhone SE; and third, different estimates for Mac, which we expect to grow sequentially at a rate similar to what we have experienced in the past June quarters. seekingalpha.com/article/3968300-apple-aapl-timothy-donald-cook-q2-2016-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=singlePLUS, the market will be digesting TWO riot producing Presidential conventions. The civil disobedience happening HERE in Saint Paul, provoked by outside agitators, will be magnified by social media.
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Post by macster on Jul 13, 2016 9:54:07 GMT -8
If it wasn't for being long in since 05 and accumulating since then and now enjoying the dividends, I would have never invested in this company from 2014. 15 or 16 so far. And it looks like the first qtr holiday wonder wont be enough either to interest me. Institutional ownership is way down and not improving. There is no forward excitement from PR. Where are the rumors from the far east on new product other than iPhone? Does lack of a refresh in Macs mean that the Mac will evolve and leap forward? Or are they to busy trying to figure out who sits where in the grand apple orchard complex. Why release a 9.9.16 presentation that is 2 months away and say sorry we cannot tell you more. Why? Whats so secret? Rumors from the far east have been already disclosed. cannot create new watch hardware without leaks. What are they doing for next great thing in VR AR? No hardware leaks yet other than some hiring. My gawd whats going on inside this company other then parties celebrating sexual equality, free watch bands and other typical common worker moral tricks.' Rant done.
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Post by tuffett on Jul 13, 2016 10:37:30 GMT -8
Completely agree with the above. Can't say the valuation is irrational when sales of all major product lines are tanking and management refuses to tell us anything of any substance about the future. It's all well and good when the company is making record profits, but that's not the case anymore. Major current and historical competitors are growing and Apple is not. Say what you will about them, but Microsoft has managed to successfully pivot and increase profitability despite a declining PC market. Apple on the other hand seems to have been caught completely off guard with the poor iPhone 6s cycle and the various complexities going on in the smartphone market, just as they were with the iPad.
I see a reactionary management will excellent 90 day forecasting skills but poor long term skills; ironically, the complete opposite of how they claim to want to run their business.
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Post by nagrani on Jul 13, 2016 10:59:51 GMT -8
Jumped back into Apple for a very short term trade. Bought Jan 2017 100 calls. Will ride Apple to 100 and then trade out.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jul 13, 2016 11:04:09 GMT -8
So today, 07/13/16, we see an article released titled, Apple Watch is Your Favorite Smartwatch---But Just Barely by Don Resigner in Fortune. He points out that even though the Apple Watch got a score of 852 out of a possible 1000, it was just barely higher than Samsung’s score of 842 and Sony’s score of 840. The point he made is valid, those scores are very close. However, I’d read yesterday’s story about the same study, Apple Watch Crushes Competition in Customer Satisfaction survey by Daniel Sparks in which Sparks states the score of 852 but also includes a very important rating that was completely ignored by Don Resigner:
Apple's overall score on a 1,000-point scale was 852. Samsung's overall score was 842. But J.D. Power Circle ratings highlight a larger gap between the two companies; Apple's five-star rating stands for "Among the best," and Samsung's two-star rating is pegged with a not-so-impressive description: "The rest.”
Now why would Resigner not include the large difference in ratings when he wrote his story? Well, one reason is that he would have had to choose a different title for his article but another reason is that it’s easier to write an article belittling Apple these days. Negative articles get the clicks.
I appreciated Sparks including the rating information in his article but I always wonder why folks are so quick to dismiss the success of the Apple Watch during it's first year of sales. When the iPhone was released in 2007, millions upon millions of people in this country and around the world were already using cell phones, so they were immediately potential customers of the newly released iPhone. In the case of the Apple Watch, millions upon millions of people in this country and around the world were no longer wearing a watch of any kind. It's not simply a case of trying the new Apple Watch, it's "Why would I be interested since I don't wear a watch?". Then, of course, there are people who are not interested in an electronic watch of any kind because they prefer a mechanical watch for whatever reason. Granted, Apple Watch sales are not going to factor strongly in Apple's quarterly earnings report anytime soon but, to me, they're a good indicator that Apple hasn't lost the ability to design and release a great product.
I've included both articles in this post for convenience and to avoid giving clicks to Don Resigner. ======================= Apple Watch Is Your Favorite Smartwatch—But Just Barely by Don Resigner in Fortune Apple’s AAPL -0.30% Apple Watch ranks highest among all smartwatches in terms of customer satisfaction, J.D. Power reported this week. However, with a score of 852 out of a possible 1,000, it just barely topped Samsung’s score of 842 and Sony’s SNE -3.53% score of 840, according to the report. The average score across all smartwatches was 847.
J.D. Power analyzes devices on a 1,000-point scale. On smartwatches, the company surveyed device owners and asked them how they would rate their devices on 11 factors, including ease of use, comfort, battery life, price, and others. After collecting that data, it assigned figures to each factor to determine a particular brand’s customer satisfaction.
According to J.D. Power, Apple Watch won the race thanks to its comfort, styling, and ease of use. Samsung, which offers a wide range of smartwatches and wearables, did well in customer service and display size.
Apple Watch launched last year and was the first device from the iPhone maker to enter the wearables market. Apple Watch comes in a slew of versions depending on customer preference, but customers can pick those variations in a few categories, including Apple Watch Sport, Apple Watch, and the luxury Apple Watch Edition.
Debate has raged over how popular Apple Watch is and how many of its owners are actually using the device. Critics have said Apple Watch hasn’t lived up to the hype and after using it for some time, customers generally discard it. Apple and its supporters, however, say Apple Watch has been a success and even outstripped the company’s sales expectations. Apple has, however, failed to provide Apple Watch sales figures, leaving everyone to guess at how well it’s actually performing.
Still, that hasn’t stopped analysts from taking a guess. Longtime Apple analyst Neil Cybart recently predicted that Apple has sold 12.1 million Apple Watch units that have generated $5.7 billion in revenue. He added that he believes Apple Watch is already a $10 billion business.
“Apple already has a $10 billion Apple Watch business on its hands,” Cybart said in his analysis. “This is even before all of the significant changes in watchOS 3 were unveiled on stage at [the 2016] WWDC. Rather than pressing a reset button, Apple is systematically going through the Apple Watch business to fix friction points that developed over the first year. All of this is being done to position the Watch for improved adoption and a valuation much greater than $10 billion.”
Now we know that Apple Watch is seemingly well-received among its owners.
In addition to looking at smartwatches, though, J.D. Power analyzed fitness bands. On that front, where Apple doesn’t directly compete with a dedicated fitness band, the company found Samsung and Garmin GRMN -1.07% were tops with scores of 859 and 836, respectively. The average fitness band earned a score of 829. ======================= Apple Watch Crushes Competition in Customer Satisfaction Survey newsfeedback@fool.com (Daniel Sparks)
Customers love the Apple Watch. But sales are still too small for this news to matter much.
In J.D. Power's 2016 Smartwatch Device Satisfaction survey, Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) new smartwatch was the only device in the category earning five out of five of the J.D. Power's "Power Circle" ratings. Second-place Samsung earned just two of five Power Circle ratings. The report highlights an important takeaway for Apple investors: While Apple Watch sales may be off to a slow start, it's at least a start that is satisfying customers. Customers love the Apple Watch In the smartwatch satisfaction survey, 11 factors were examined, according to J.D. Power. The factors included "ease of use, comfort, battery life, phone features, price, strength/durability, display size, styling/appearance, reliability, apps available, and customer service." Apple's overall score on a 1,000-point scale was 852. Samsung's overall score was 842. But J.D. Power Circle ratings highlight a larger gap between the two companies; Apple's five-star rating stands for "Among the best," and Samsung's two-star rating is pegged with a not-so-impressive description: "The rest." "Apple ... ranks highest in customer satisfaction with smartwatches and performs particularly well in comfort, styling/appearance and ease of use," J.D. Power said in a press release on Tuesday Going forward, Apple Watch customer satisfaction could get a boost. The new WatchOS update coming this fall enables apps to launch instantly, by allowing apps to be installed natively on the watch and by having up-to-date information ready ahead of time. This change addresses what is arguably WatchOS's most frustrating problem today: Sometimes it's faster for users to pull their iPhone out and open an app than it is to open the corresponding Apple Watch app to view the same information. Of course, the fact that customers are enjoying the Apple Watch isn't necessarily new information. Management has been citing favorable customer satisfaction data for Apple Watch since shortly after its 2015 debut. And the boasting continued into the company's most recent earnings call. "Our customers are very happy with Apple Watch," said Apple CFO Luca Maestri during the tech giant's most recent earnings call. Maestri followed by citing a recent 451 Research study, measuring Apple Watch's customer satisfaction rate at 94%. It's worth noting that Samsung is capitalizing in one subsegment of the wearables market where Apple isn't. Samsung ranks highest in customer satisfaction in the connected fitness band category, where Apple doesn't have a product. Samsung's overall satisfaction score in this segment is 859 -- and J.D. Power boasts a five-Power Circle rating. Promising news A high customer satisfaction score for the Apple Watch could signal more market opportunity for the new device. Apple has always strived to put the customer experience above all else when designing products, and it has proved to be an effective strategy for the company. The iPod, iPhone, and iPad were all products ranking high in customer satisfaction studies. Historically, Apple's emphasis on the user experience has helped the company develop a dominating share of profits in new product categories and sustain these advantages for years. Specifically, Apple's outsize customer satisfaction in the nascent category so early can help Apple increase customer loyalty and repurchases. But since the Apple Watch still represents a very small portion of the company's sales -- probably around two to three percent -- this news doesn't necessarily affect an investment thesis in the stock. But it does at least reaffirm that Apple Watch is here to stay and that it will likely be a key contender if the category takes off. =======================
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Post by tuffett on Jul 13, 2016 11:19:24 GMT -8
I see absolutely nothing wrong with either article. The question I have is how does a 1% difference in score (difference of 10 on a 1,000 point scale) equate to a 5-star rating for one product and a 2-star rating for the other (a 60% difference)?
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Post by Luckychoices on Jul 13, 2016 14:49:15 GMT -8
I see absolutely nothing wrong with either article. The question I have is how does a 1% difference in score (difference of 10 on a 1,000 point scale) equate to a 5-star rating for one product and a 2-star rating for the other (a 60% difference)? Well, here's a link to the actual J.D. Power study and here's a link to How are Power Circle Ratings Calculated? If you still see nothing wrong with Don Resigner leaving the Power Circle Rating completely out of his article, so he could put "But Just Barely" in his title, then we just have different ideas about objective reporting versus biased reporting.
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Post by incorrigible on Jul 13, 2016 15:01:50 GMT -8
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Post by tuffett on Jul 13, 2016 17:09:26 GMT -8
I see absolutely nothing wrong with either article. The question I have is how does a 1% difference in score (difference of 10 on a 1,000 point scale) equate to a 5-star rating for one product and a 2-star rating for the other (a 60% difference)? Well, here's a link to the actual J.D. Power study and here's a link to How are Power Circle Ratings Calculated? If you still see nothing wrong with Don Resigner leaving the Power Circle Rating completely out of his article, so he could put "But Just Barely" in his title, then we just have different ideas about objective reporting versus biased reporting. View Attachment Thanks for the link, but even based on the methodology that they supposedly use, the results make very little sense to me. It's clear that Apple Watch is the best (and I agree with that assessment), but it's not by all that much. I'm not sure how the average score could be greater than all other products besides the Apple Watch, as I assume equal weighting would be given to each competitor. It could be feasible if Apple Watch was so far ahead of the competition that it brought the entire average up but from the raw numbers we see that isn't the case. On a similar vein, it doesn't make sense that all entrants besides Apple get a below average 2-star rating, especially when the gap between Apple and Samsung was so minute. Besides the questionable result, the star rating system means very little when the pool consists of a mere 5 entrants. It's useless data and frankly not worth reporting in my opinion. The below would be a far better thing to report and discuss: I also question Samsung winning customer service...that can't be right, can it?! I don't pay much attention to customer satisfaction surveys for these reasons. The gap is often so close that the rankings are simply insignificant, and also some of the results just don't make any logical sense.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,353
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Post by bud777 on Jul 13, 2016 19:10:06 GMT -8
J.D. Powers collects ordinal data. That is what we see with the circles. They attempt to transform this into quantitative/ratio data by assigning weights to the different categories and creating their Power Index. Because we are so used to quantitative data, we tend to make the assumption, for example, that the distance between "Among the best" and "Better than most" is the same as the distance between "About average" and "The rest". However, the survey does not establish this. When Powers then assigns weights to the different categorical variables they confound the results. Much like FICO scores, the mapping from ordinal to quantitative/ratio data is not divulged or defended. Given the category scores we see, it is difficult to imagine a set of weights that would produce such close index ratings, given the clear disparity in the ordinal data. There is no mathematical mystery here, just a clear demonstration of how whimsical the index and weights can be. Certainly they should not be taken as anything other than the opinion of the people who came up with the weights. This is closer to alchemy than it is to mathematics.
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