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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 8, 2013 16:54:04 GMT -8
The popular networks will want to keep their retail outlets adequately filled, especially when there's a bit of mania.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 8, 2013 17:10:18 GMT -8
That's the other side of the coin.
If channel partners want iPhone bad enough, that "influences" Apple to meet the demand.
My assumption is Apple meets demand and hits the channel inventory target first, and adjusts later. Easier to do when you have blue chip hot-selling products.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 8, 2013 18:33:26 GMT -8
In theory, increased channel fill will be offset by a decrease in next quarter's guidance, right?
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Post by Mav on Jan 8, 2013 18:40:25 GMT -8
That's just one of the many maddening considerations, yes. Assuming I'm in the ballpark about channel fill = sell-in = SEC-reported sales or something like that.
So I just gotta go with simplicity. I figure TC and Co. will build out as fast as they can within Apple's quality standards (which, fortunately, seem to have improved from the 4S/iPad 3 based on my anecdotal experience), and once supply/demand is reached, they'll adjust the production rate. From what little data points we have, I figure the iPhone (5) channel is well into the buffering process or it's already within Apple's target range (which itself can vary from ~1/3 to ~1/2 of a quarter's worth of channel inventory).
Management will probably guide to a sequential downtick in iPhone sales if >50M this quarter. But I won't really believe 'em unless we're talking the 55M+ iPhone range.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 8, 2013 19:11:55 GMT -8
People are scrambling trying to figure out what the AT&T number means. The Motley Fool tries, but I think fails miserably. www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/01/08/did-att-just-hint-at-an-iphone-blowout-or-miss.aspxThey use 16% of worldwide sales which is preposterous considering the number of launch countries and the addition of China. Their number (48.8Million) is respectable, but I believe that AT&T's share may be below 15%, if that is true that would imply 52 million. That would make for a very good report.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 8, 2013 19:15:28 GMT -8
I give up. Seriously, one carrier is not the world. I'll never stop pounding the table on growth rate because that's the way to best measure the "health" of the iPhone business, since smartphone rates of growth are legit enough for Apple to bring up in keynotes and maybe CCs.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2013 21:01:38 GMT -8
So lets talk Gross Margin - how soon before we hit the mid 40s again? Q2?
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Post by Mav on Jan 8, 2013 21:11:07 GMT -8
Never? Too soon to tell if a GM of 43%+ will happen again. I think Apple actually might "cap" GM around the low 40s. And I would be better than fine with that!
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 8, 2013 21:42:28 GMT -8
So lets talk Gross Margin - how soon before we hit the mid 40s again? Q2? Agree with Mav, never.
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Post by Mav on Jan 8, 2013 21:45:52 GMT -8
The Street will slowly realize Apple's long game. It's gonna be great, because we're already starting to see it in action.
There will be no profit umbrella to protect the competition from the rain. *evil grin*
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2013 23:24:31 GMT -8
Never? Too soon to tell if a GM of 43%+ will happen again. I think Apple actually might "cap" GM around the low 40s. And I would be better than fine with that! What's your GM for iPhones? I'm thinking its over 60% - so as iPhone revenue continues to be a larger and larger portion of revenue, the GM% should be dragged up with it.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 8, 2013 23:33:58 GMT -8
I can't think in terms of GM per product. I mean I could, but I just use Mental Blender Theoryâ„¢. Probably too lazy, but I think "holistically" in terms of revenue mix, revenue leverage, cost curve, historical GM, componentry pricing/novelty for the current product mix, along those lines.
I would prefer iPhone GM to decrease gently over time. One thing Apple could do - friggin' finally increase flash memory capacities at the same price points. It's not 2010 anymore, guys!
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Post by tuffett on Jan 9, 2013 9:16:26 GMT -8
AT&T and Verizon numbers are encouraging to me. On the conservative side, looks like 8M iPhones from AT&T and 5.7M from Verizon. I'll say 2M from Sprint and 2.2M for other and round to a total of 18M iPhones sold in the US. Applying the same 38% US iPhone sales factor as a year ago gives a total of 47.3M. I'm going to add about 5M (remember, 2M iPhone 5s alone in a single weekend) for China which didn't exist last year and round down to 52M iPhones worldwide. Due to the record global rollout, I think this could be a conservative number and makes sense given the revenue guidance, which is tough to beat handily without a high iPhone number.
For iPads I'm going to assume a 1.7:1 iPad Mini:iPad ratio, largely due to the fact that there was a whole month where the Mini did not exist. Going forward it'll be at least 2:1.
I will go with 38.5% for GM to again be conservative.
My estimates, for what it's worth. I copied the formatting and a lot of the lesser numbers from Burgess so credit to him for that
iPads 23M $435.00 $10,005,000,000 iPhones 52M $660.00 $34,320,000,000 Macs 4.8M $1,350.00 $6,480,000,000 iPods 13M $150.00 $1,950,000,000 iTunes $2,500,000,000 Peripherals $850,000,000 Software $900,000,000
Revenue $57,005,000,000 Gross Margin 38.50% $21,946,925,000 operating expenses $3,800,000,00 $18,146,925,000 OI&E $400,000,000 $18,546,925,000 Tax rate 25.00% NET PROFIT $13,910,193,750 Shares Outstanding 948186000. EPS: $14.67
Any upside surprise to iPhone sales, iPad sales or GM can easily get us to $15+ EPS.
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Post by alice on Jan 9, 2013 9:26:42 GMT -8
Is the VZ number good or not?
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Post by tuffett on Jan 9, 2013 9:32:24 GMT -8
I would say good. There was solid growth and it was cited that the iPhone was a large contributor to that growth, so iPhone mix likely increased along with the overall growth. Could be anywhere from 5.5-6M iPhones compared to 4.3 a year ago.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 9, 2013 9:35:25 GMT -8
Is the VZ number good or not? It was not "good", but was OK. VZ is not iphone friendly. The US market is very saturated, the days of 50+% growth are over. I do agree with Chas that expectations have gotten to high. Chas has a very good track record BTW.
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Post by alice on Jan 9, 2013 9:39:48 GMT -8
Is 50 mil iPhone still reasonable or is 50 mil on the high side given the data from att and VZ?
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 9, 2013 9:51:59 GMT -8
Is 50 mil iPhone still reasonable or is 50 mil on the high side given the data from att and VZ? 50 is reasonable. The China number helps lower the YOY growth required. If you use 4 million for China, that lowers the number to 46. That would mean 25% growth for the rest of the world. That is achievable. Not guaranteed, but possible. Because we have these data points, like Chas, I do not think anything over 52 is possible. 25% growth would be great, but the GM's are going to kill the quarter on a YOY compare.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 9, 2013 10:03:35 GMT -8
4M in China is very low to me.
- 2M iPhone 5s in three days - likely strong sales of iPhone 5 following (100k/day following launch would be about 1.5M) - 2 months of iPhone 4/4S sales prior to iPhone 5 - stronger market for iPhone 4/4S following iPhone 5 launch (price conscious consumers) - Christmas gifts. We all seem to focus on Chinese New Year but Christmas is celebrated by many people and the practice of gift giving is growing in popularity.
I'll be very surprised to see anything below 5M from China. Don't forget how fast the markets is growing there. The availability of the most desirable phone and the reduced costs of two of the next most desirable phones is going to result in a lot of sales.
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Post by alice on Jan 9, 2013 10:41:15 GMT -8
Chas, please share your numbers soon.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 9, 2013 11:09:52 GMT -8
No one should expect particularly scintillating numbers from US carriers at this point, even though so many seem to gloss over iPhone's massive power, as seen by its dominance in AT&T and even Verizon.
That's one reason why I find extrapolation dangerous - YOY growth in the US will be nothing like the more dynamic international market regions.
I'm still below 50M iPhones on my estimate just for conservatism's sake. Most of us here are keeping things pretty medium, I can't speak for others outside this topic.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 9, 2013 11:42:16 GMT -8
Is there any data yet (or will there be in the next week) from any European or Asian carriers?
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Post by Mav on Jan 9, 2013 11:51:38 GMT -8
Beats me. IIRC, I never hear that data reported around earnings anyway. Mostly just launch numbers and the occasional carrier news update.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2013 14:47:32 GMT -8
Is the VZ number good or not? I think the percentage of iPhones in the VZ number will surprise to the upside, given this is the first full quarter with both an LTE iPhone, and also the Free iPhone 4 available.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 9, 2013 16:37:19 GMT -8
Agreed. Would not be surprised to see close to or over 6 million.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 9, 2013 19:46:10 GMT -8
Is there any data yet (or will there be in the next week) from any European or Asian carriers? Honestly, we are getting numbers early that we usually do not get. We have usually seen the numbers when the carriers did their CC's. This news is fishy. (tin foil hat time)
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Post by lucy on Jan 12, 2013 5:49:38 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 12, 2013 9:52:46 GMT -8
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 12, 2013 10:21:14 GMT -8
Those 2 charts are "interesting" mix or not mix. Meanwhile, Wall Street has some mighty embarrassing numbers. iPad estimates below 20 M ?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 13, 2013 0:06:40 GMT -8
Those 2 charts are "interesting" mix or not mix. Meanwhile, Wall Street has some mighty embarrassing numbers. iPad estimates below 20 M ? Caution on account of slower iPad 3 sales (though, as I'd been tinfoil-theorizing for a while, seasonality is apparently playing a role), massive iPad revision and ramp in Q1, iPad mini stockouts (now the most popular iPad by far), and Apple only recently having shown an ability to really ramp iPad right out of the gate (which was iPad 3). It's more reasonable than iPhone worries IMHO, though I'm currently estimating 22M iPads sold myself. All kinds of product transitions in 2012. But it'll pay off this year.
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