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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2013 12:54:16 GMT -8
ASP of $660? Take $640, add one extra $20 Lightning cable per person. At _least_. But I'm at $640 anyway. Conservatism helps keep my hidden biases in check. I don't know about that. The single lightning cable would be enough for a lot of people, and there have been tons of deals on group buy sites for cheap cables (3rd party, I'm assuming grey market and Apple gets nothing from them). I think you're right for sticking on the low end of ASP, especially because iPhone 4/4S is probably relatively high. I presume iPhone ASP is higher in launch quarters from more people buying the 32 & 64 gig models (especially for the first month or two, when people will be buying whatever model is available.) Actually that happened to me before Xmas, brought my wife an iPad mini and the only model I could get was the 64gig.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 7, 2013 13:08:40 GMT -8
Quite a bit higher. Last year, Q1 = $ 659. All of 2011, around $ 650. All of $ 2012 roughly 643. Q3 was 624. Note: some numbers are not weighted in the same way as others.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 7, 2013 13:10:17 GMT -8
If you're an active iPhone user who's already used more than one cable around the home, trust me, it's not. You'll need a second just for your extra charger/car charger/whatever. It's true that Apple's hardly the only source of Lightning cables, legit or otherwise. On the other hand, Lightning accessories are obviously becoming more and more available. Even if they're not bought in an Apple Store, there's still the licensing fees to Apple to consider. I think a large number of people are going grey market because they think $20 for a cable is absurd. They can be found on eBay for $4-6 a piece. Even I was tempted but my morals made me purchase legitimately. There's also the scenario where people acquire enough cables through buying additional devices - a fair number may have done this given the entire iOS product line refresh we just had. I myself got an iPhone 5 and iPad Mini and those two Lightning cables are enough (though I did buy another). I would be surprised if we saw 50 million extra Lightning cables sold at $20 a piece. That's a billion dollars! As always, I could be (and hope I am) wrong.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 7, 2013 13:24:17 GMT -8
Didn't bug me that much. Hey, beats buying a whole new charger to go with the cable. Then again, I'm an AAPL shareholder, and I don't trust grey market sources for Apple stuff.
The Lightning cable remark was intentionally glib. While I'm keeping ASP at $640, there's a number of other ways for ASP to go up independently of iPhone - cases, adapters, screen protectors and warranties just being the start (and again, licensing programs probably do add meaningfully to ASP though not nearly as much as an accessory sold in an Apple Store).
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Post by fas550 on Jan 7, 2013 13:32:54 GMT -8
Bought three apple cables, the rest will be 3rd party. They have enough margin from me on cables. I usually buy 7-9 for various places. Little luxury never to have to search for a friggin cable.
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Post by chasmac on Jan 7, 2013 15:09:22 GMT -8
I'm not submitting numbers anymore to PED. Last qtr. I was pretty close. i.imgur.com/rK5mR.pngStill mulling over Q1. iPad/Mini mix is throwing me for a loop. I'd like to hear guesses from you guys. Will post mine on Jan. 15/16.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 7, 2013 15:17:14 GMT -8
Most of us have strong iPad mini cannibalizing the full size.
Upon further review, I have Q2 guidance at $ 42 to 42.3 B, EPS $ 10.20 to 10.30 and wild guess GM 38.4
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 7, 2013 15:27:10 GMT -8
I'd like to hear guesses from you guys. Will post mine on Jan. 15/16. The most bearish are below $ 14. Braeburn consensus is $ 14.78. The cautious group among us are usually $ 14.00 to 14.50. Mediums are 14.50 to 14.90. Aggressive are 15-16.80. The whole thread is worth reading. Mav, Mark, myself, fas, burgess, sponge, Ensign, prazan, tuffett, qualitywte and others have been pretty lively.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 7, 2013 15:35:16 GMT -8
I'm at 2:1 iPad minis to iPads for ASP purposes, though I think the actual mix will be closer to 1.5:1 or 1:1 until iPad mini hits supply/demand balance.
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Post by chasmac on Jan 7, 2013 16:33:59 GMT -8
I'm at 2:1 iPad minis to iPads for ASP purposes, though I think the actual mix will be closer to 1.5:1 or 1:1 until iPad mini hits supply/demand balance. I'm not near any Apple stores, would like someone(s) to do some asking. Local campus store is saying 4:1 but that demographic is skewed to students. Thanks all (especially tetra)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 7, 2013 16:43:27 GMT -8
Like Apple Store employes are dumb enough to divulge that kind of info. Best I've able to get out of 'em is something like iPad 4 selling "normally", iPad mini en fuego. Considering that I'm an iPad 3 owner looking seriously at iPad mini retina w/A6 (should it happen), giving up a generation's worth of SoC power, I'd say that assessment's on the money. Just 11 trading days 'til we get some clues...
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Post by chasmac on Jan 7, 2013 17:12:44 GMT -8
Like Apple Store employes are dumb enough to divulge that kind of info. Best I've able to get out of 'em is something like iPad 4 selling "normally", iPad mini en fuego. Considering that I'm an iPad 3 owner looking seriously at iPad mini retina w/A6 (should it happen), giving up a generation's worth of SoC power, I'd say that assessment's on the money. Just 11 trading days 'til we get some clues... Just ask the ratio, they might have a clue.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 7, 2013 17:29:16 GMT -8
Like Apple Store employes are dumb enough to divulge that kind of info. Best I've able to get out of 'em is something like iPad 4 selling "normally", iPad mini en fuego. Considering that I'm an iPad 3 owner looking seriously at iPad mini retina w/A6 (should it happen), giving up a generation's worth of SoC power, I'd say that assessment's on the money. Just 11 trading days 'til we get some clues... Just ask the ratio, they might have a clue. My Apple Store buddy guessed ( and it was a guess) that she sold 1.75 minis to each full size iPad during the Christmas run. Of full size iPads it was 6-1. iPad 4 to ipad 2. Some 3's sold until they ran out or were shipped back to the Mother ship. Ipad 2 sales tended to be price sensitive sales when a mini was not available.......the mini would have sold more, many more, I'd not supply constrained. These are WAGS while she had a few minutes between customers.
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Post by saydee on Jan 7, 2013 17:30:25 GMT -8
at roosevelt field store.....I asked and it was the same...mini's selling out ipads okay. all the people waiting tol have there iPads started up, were minis there were a hell of alot of them. this was Saturday.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 7, 2013 17:43:29 GMT -8
Thanks for the info Saydee and Ensign.
I'd be astounded and pleased if Apple pulled off a massive ramp up of mini to outshine the iPad 4.
Color me cynical for this quarter and optimistic for Q2 on this.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 7, 2013 18:13:29 GMT -8
Welcome, saydee!
iPad mini is fairly "off the shelf" for Apple but for the typical caution warranted in mass production with as few defects as possible with an all-new design. OK and maybe those fancy-pants chamfers too.
OTOH I can't see Apple NOT ramping up, iPhone 5-esque, to meet demand. Apple knew this mini was gonna be popular. So far, sure seems that way.
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Post by alice on Jan 7, 2013 19:34:02 GMT -8
That GM is what created that 12.30. The revenue was good, the GM was off the charts. MB, just do some back-of-the-napkin math on your Excel file or whatever for Q2. You might be pleasantly surprised by the possibilities. Mav, what are you hinting? Guiding $10 for Q2 would mean a $2+ drop in EPS. This would not be good guidance and may affect aapl share price negatively.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 8, 2013 5:54:58 GMT -8
Sandbagging is an art.
In terms of my actual $ 10 guidance, I built up the spreadsheet in the usual manner, got my projected EPS and then backtracked to guidance.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 8, 2013 9:09:43 GMT -8
Anyone revising their iPhone estimates in light of the AT&T info? I really don't know what to make of it.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 8, 2013 9:21:53 GMT -8
The range of scenarios is so wide. We knew these numbers back in Dec 5. I have no new reason to adjust from 51 million which was in my ballpark since October.
Channel fill is the key.
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Post by machouse on Jan 8, 2013 10:35:40 GMT -8
Anyone revising their iPhone estimates in light of the AT&T info? I really don't know what to make of it. Agreed with Tetrachloride, this was expected. Though with an early launch and higher output demand could have been met sooner and December could have potentially tapered off. A YOY increase (Especially with 1.3 million Iphones sold in AAPL Q4) is very promising, two week later launch and AT&T could have sold close to 11 million smartphones. I see AT&T as a more mature telecom, therefore expect many other carriers to have better YOY Growth. I still predict 55 million
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 8, 2013 11:33:48 GMT -8
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Post by chasmac on Jan 8, 2013 14:10:04 GMT -8
The range of scenarios is so wide. We knew these numbers back in Dec 5. I have no new reason to adjust from 51 million which was in my ballpark since October. Channel fill is the key. Not liking the numbers I'm coming up with. What do you have for Opex? Looking for a spare change on the seat cushions. I think iPad #s are going to be low (as usual). Who knows how many Minis they were able to make. They are flying off the shelves. Lower ASP and GMs...
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 8, 2013 14:21:53 GMT -8
OpEx seems reasonable from 3950 to 4020.
iPads are a big mystery. Common estimates are 22-25.5 M
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 8, 2013 14:53:42 GMT -8
I'd just use OpEx guidance (actual $$ guided). Oppenheimer is usually pretty accurate there.
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Post by Mav on Jan 8, 2013 14:55:28 GMT -8
Is channel fill the real wild card? That could make a huge difference in iPhone numbers - 4-6 week target range after all.
But again high iPad uncertainty hints at a bias in favor of higher iPhone sales.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 8, 2013 16:09:38 GMT -8
Anyone revising their iPhone estimates in light of the AT&T info? I really don't know what to make of it. I think AT&T should have been about 15-16% of 1st quarter sales.....worldwide...with the huge international rollout, that sounds about right to me. Assumiing AT&T moves 80% of its sales as Iphones, and the number from AT&T turns out to be 10. 1 million, that gets us about 8.1 million Iphones. I can get pretty close to my 52 million iphone total number from a reasonable extrapolation of the AT&T "reveal" if this is 15% of worldwide sales. I'm kind of thinking that with Greater China and Southeast Asia fully on board this quarter that 15% might even be a bit high....
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 8, 2013 16:29:14 GMT -8
Extrapolation is very, very dangerous, IMHO. Growth (worldwide) is all that matters in the medium term at least - why not stick with that?
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 8, 2013 16:33:19 GMT -8
My question would be, what about channel fill?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 8, 2013 16:42:27 GMT -8
Any channel inventory experts in the house? I guess Apple has the ability to calibrate sell-in to a certain degree, but the implications make me nervous (even though channel fill is nothing like the illegal/frowned-upon "channel stuffing"). Is iPhone NOT in supply/demand balance until channel inventory targets are reached, even though iPhone 5 is now "in stock" most everywhere? Isn't Tim Cook's style to get the product out as quickly as possible even QA constraints, and adjust the production rate as needed later? I'm not a CFA/CPA/SCM expert/whatever, which doesn't help any with these questions.
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