Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 6, 2013 11:19:01 GMT -8
Yup. Being extra careful not to get overly exuberant. I may not even revise, except to make personal whisper numbers. ;D
Mercel? nagrani? The rest of the FA crew? I know you're out there. You're welcome to chime in with your numbers any time.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 6, 2013 12:55:56 GMT -8
I think iPads will be closer to 22 million.
It is so tough to figure the massive demand for the mini weighed against the supply constraints balanced to the new iPad 4....the clean out of the channel n iPad 3 at Target and Walmart, buttressed by the cheaper all purpose ipad2. All those ASP assumptions!
My head hurts
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 6, 2013 14:19:46 GMT -8
Last year guidance of $ 32.5 B, 8.5 EPS, resulting in $ 39.2 and 12.30 (some rounding). Q2 was the biggest sandbag of the past 6 quarters. YOY comparisons must not be used as the sole yardstick. That GM is what created that 12.30. The revenue was good, the GM was off the charts.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2013 14:23:25 GMT -8
660 seems awfully high on ASP for the iphone. Burgess, 14.59 is reasonable, but only a 4% margin of error. That is where Tetra/Prazan are and I expect a lot more to pile in there. This has officially become a group think analysis. $660 seems pretty typical for a full launch quarter I thought. This was my minimum forecast - I'm expecting GM% to be higher than the 38.5% on my post, and also expect higher OI&E & iPad sales, and possibly less shares outstanding.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 6, 2013 14:36:48 GMT -8
A report back in early November said that iPhone 4 and 4S unit sales vs iPhone 5 sales were higher than average. Otherwise, I'd be inclined to kick my iPhone ASP up.
Given the Q3 clipping, I'm a bit skittish on GM myself.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 6, 2013 15:16:55 GMT -8
Random thoughts on Braeburn Group's numbers (which of course includes Cl4): braeburngroup.com/quarterlyestimates.htmlNansen's in Braeburn? Huh. Well, OK. His Mac number can't possibly be right. We'd all love $60B+. But I'm not holding my breath. Braeburn's on the right track with EPS. Hard NOT to be when Oppenheimer guided GM as far down as he did, but still. Robert should throw in a consensus normalizing factor or something. (Hey, stop by now and then!) Btw, I thought one of Braeburn's goals was to get lots more participants in estimates. I count only 19. :/
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 6, 2013 15:24:55 GMT -8
ASP of $660? Take $640, add one extra $20 Lightning cable per person. At _least_. But I'm at $640 anyway. Conservatism helps keep my hidden biases in check.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 6, 2013 15:26:34 GMT -8
Robert does a fair amount of precision checking on the numbers in addition to site and thread management. So, by limiting the participants, the workload is balanced.
I've upside room for a number of things, but gravity pulls me down.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 6, 2013 15:30:44 GMT -8
So it's intentionally limited? But Nagrani and Chas are regular participants, right? And I doubt Robert would mind 30 participants if they put in the work.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 6, 2013 15:33:01 GMT -8
Last year guidance of $ 32.5 B, 8.5 EPS, resulting in $ 39.2 and 12.30 (some rounding). Q2 was the biggest sandbag of the past 6 quarters. YOY comparisons must not be used as the sole yardstick. That GM is what created that 12.30. The revenue was good, the GM was off the charts. MB, just do some back-of-the-napkin math on your Excel file or whatever for Q2. You might be pleasantly surprised by the possibilities.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 6, 2013 17:56:00 GMT -8
My main concern is EPS, Revenue, Gross Margin in that order. Braeburn EPS is in my ballpark. The other two are not. Getting to details: I'm an outlier on Macs and uncertain on iPads. Surprisingly, I'm right in the consensus on iPhones.
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Post by sponge on Jan 6, 2013 19:44:50 GMT -8
Random thoughts on Braeburn Group's numbers (which of course includes Cl4): braeburngroup.com/quarterlyestimates.htmlNansen's in Braeburn? Huh. Well, OK. His Mac number can't possibly be right. We'd all love $60B+. But I'm not holding my breath. Braeburn's on the right track with EPS. Hard NOT to be when Oppenheimer guided GM as far down as he did, but still. Robert should throw in a consensus normalizing factor or something. (Hey, stop by now and then!) Btw, I thought one of Braeburn's goals was to get lots more participants in estimates. I count only 19. :/ You want more numbers? I will give you more numbers. This site has over 130 estimates for 1stqtr eps. Their average is 14.61. www.estimize.com/aaplI think there is a 75% chance that we have eps between 14.61 and 15.50. Mine is 15.81 and I think I may be 10% too low.
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Post by nagrani on Jan 6, 2013 20:02:05 GMT -8
I placed first in the smackdown this quarter last year. I won't be participating this year since I don't want to set the public perception's bar too high. FWIW - for my friends here -I did complete my analysis and came in at 16.85 for EPS.
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Post by sponge on Jan 6, 2013 20:09:25 GMT -8
I placed first in the smackdown this quarter last year. I won't be participating this year since I don't want to set the public perception's bar too high. FWIW - for my friends here -I did complete my analysis and came in at 16.85 for EPS. Well if we add yours, Mercel, and Gregg to the bunch our average jumps up to 14.95.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 6, 2013 20:21:53 GMT -8
Appreciate you sharing, nagrani and sponge.
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Post by sponge on Jan 6, 2013 20:24:20 GMT -8
Appreciate you sharing, nagrani and sponge. Mav one of these days you will join us.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 6, 2013 20:27:43 GMT -8
The Braeburnites? We'll see. 'Til then, you guys know where to find me. Robert's always welcome to stop by here and say hi.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 6, 2013 20:46:24 GMT -8
I placed first in the smackdown this quarter last year. I won't be participating this year since I don't want to set the public perception's bar too high. FWIW - for my friends here -I did complete my analysis and came in at 16.85 for EPS. I remember that quarter, one worth celebrating. I thought you and Gabriel were nuts. ;D Funny part is that you missed by a $1 and came closest. That means the rest of us suck. LOL
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Post by renee on Jan 7, 2013 4:51:38 GMT -8
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 7, 2013 7:28:30 GMT -8
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 7, 2013 7:36:37 GMT -8
Tetra, I don't feel good and can't think straight. i have been trying to find a CC data point from 2012. Do you happen to have?
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 7, 2013 7:56:51 GMT -8
NY Times about WWDC 2012 400 M credit cards7 months, 100 M new cards to now. All Things Digital Sept 12, 2012 4 months, 65 M new cards to now, but believed to be 70 M. Let's say 68 M.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 7, 2013 8:05:49 GMT -8
Mark and other flu victims, keep the vitamin C, chicken soup and layers of blankets going. Wear a hat to keep body temperature higher and stable. If a lot of junk in the throat (throat sounds rough), gargle with highly dilute peroxide. 1 tablespoon and half a cup of water. Gargle well and spit up anything you can. Rinse well. Drink a mixture of ginger root or ginger powder, honey and water to ease throat pain, but not right away.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 7, 2013 8:30:20 GMT -8
Web has analysis flying. iPhone estimates are in our wide ballpark of 50-55 M, 24 M iPads and such.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 7, 2013 9:32:34 GMT -8
Mark and other flu victims, keep the vitamin C, chicken soup and layers of blankets going. Wear a hat to keep body temperature higher and stable. If a lot of junk in the throat (throat sounds rough), gargle with highly dilute peroxide. 1 tablespoon and half a cup of water. Gargle well and spit up anything you can. Rinse well. Drink a mixture of ginger root or ginger powder, honey and water to ease throat pain, but not right away. it is odd you say that about the hat. When I took my temp a little while ago it was very low, but it was a digital device. I just have to wait until Tammy gets home. Tetra, Thank you so much for the data points, I knew I could depend on you. I am very encouraged by the 500 million CC number. That is a staggering amount of new customers to add in a few months. When announced at the end of September we can assume it was rounded, just like the 500 is rounded, but it is over 500 across all devices. Since Apple customers are repeat buyers I am thinking the number for the quarter is close to 100 million devices sold by Apple since sometime in September. Help me out here Tetra with the device breakdown.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 7, 2013 9:40:03 GMT -8
Q1 and Q2 were easy on the independents. Q3 this year and Q4 last year were the worst on the independents. Q4 this year was mediocre. Smackdown results tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/10/26/apples-q4-michael-walkley-called-it-the-indies-miss-again/. Officially, the EPS result was 8.67. Unofficially, the EPS would have been higher by .10 to .25. Currency fluctuations and accounting rules caused OIE to be minus -51 instead of the expected 160. Now to the big picture. We have our bulls, moderates and bears. Each quarter has its nuances. Last quarter was iOS drop due to millions of consumers waiting for the October keynote. This quarter, we have big rollouts, channel fill, activations high and low. I can't recall the last time I saw an iPhone estimate under 49 million.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 7, 2013 9:57:19 GMT -8
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Post by machouse on Jan 7, 2013 11:17:09 GMT -8
Mark and other flu victims, keep the vitamin C, chicken soup and layers of blankets going. Wear a hat to keep body temperature higher and stable. If a lot of junk in the throat (throat sounds rough), gargle with highly dilute peroxide. 1 tablespoon and half a cup of water. Gargle well and spit up anything you can. Rinse well. Drink a mixture of ginger root or ginger powder, honey and water to ease throat pain, but not right away. it is odd you say that about the hat. When I took my temp a little while ago it was very low, but it was a digital device. I just have to wait until Tammy gets home. Tetra, Thank you so much for the data points, I knew I could depend on you. I am very encouraged by the 500 million CC number. That is a staggering amount of new customers to add in a few months. When announced at the end of September we can assume it was rounded, just like the 500 is rounded, but it is over 500 across all devices. Since Apple customers are repeat buyers I am thinking the number for the quarter is close to 100 million devices sold by Apple since sometime in September. Help me out here Tetra with the device breakdown. Apple did launch Itunes in more countries this quarter, so undoubtably many ios devices were sold, some accounts can be from existing ios users. www.apple.com/pr/library/2012/12/04Apple-Launches-iTunes-Store-in-Russia-Turkey-India-South-Africa-52-Additional-Countries-Today.html
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Post by tuffett on Jan 7, 2013 12:23:37 GMT -8
ASP of $660? Take $640, add one extra $20 Lightning cable per person. At _least_. But I'm at $640 anyway. Conservatism helps keep my hidden biases in check. I don't know about that. The single lightning cable would be enough for a lot of people, and there have been tons of deals on group buy sites for cheap cables (3rd party, I'm assuming grey market and Apple gets nothing from them). I think you're right for sticking on the low end of ASP, especially because iPhone 4/4S is probably relatively high.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 7, 2013 12:38:45 GMT -8
If you're an active iPhone user who's already used more than one cable around the home, trust me, it's not. You'll need a second just for your extra charger/car charger/whatever.
It's true that Apple's hardly the only source of Lightning cables, legit or otherwise. On the other hand, Lightning accessories are obviously becoming more and more available. Even if they're not bought in an Apple Store, there's still the licensing fees to Apple to consider.
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