Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jul 22, 2016 2:28:14 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Jul 22, 2016 2:57:22 GMT -8
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Post by tuffett on Jul 22, 2016 5:38:00 GMT -8
We will be lucky to stay above $90 after earnings, IMO.
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Post by mrentropy on Jul 22, 2016 5:47:28 GMT -8
Well, there is your 98.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jul 22, 2016 8:29:01 GMT -8
Official consensus for earnings is 1.39. Whisper number is 1.43.
Deagol is predicting 1.46, which, if it happens would be nice because it's least above the whisper. But remember that last year was 1.85, so either way we're looking at a 20-25% decrease Y/y.
Just like in 2013, when y/y earnings were decreasing, the stock won't start to turnaround until WS believes that the decrease is over and earnings will start growing again. So the real question is: when will that be?
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Post by rickag on Jul 22, 2016 9:06:02 GMT -8
Official consensus for earnings is 1.39. Whisper number is 1.43. Deagol is predicting 1.46, which, if it happens would be nice because it's least above the whisper. But remember that last year was 1.85, so either way we're looking at a 20-25% decrease Y/y. Just like in 2013, when y/y earnings were decreasing, the stock won't start to turnaround until WS believes that the decrease is over and earnings will start growing again. So the real question is: when will that be? But AAPL's P/E in 2013 was higher if I remember and it fell to just below 10, so not as far to drop this time. Here's to hopping Apple is holding a lot of cash for buybacks.
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Post by tuffett on Jul 22, 2016 9:16:39 GMT -8
The stock will need to drop $4-5 just to keep the same P/E. A P/E of 10 would put the stock around $86 - brutal. A 25% drop is terrible no matter how one tries to justify it. Just imagine the comments on here if it were MSFT or GOOG reporting such declines. The only thing that can possibly save AAPL until growth returns is the already low valuation, but that is by no means a floor. I have positioned myself to profit from the impending sell-off. Happy to be wrong though as I'm still net long.
I truly believe the stock will eventually reach new highs but it could be a long time yet. It's demoralizing to see practically everything else doing well. TSLA, AMZN, GOOG are all extremely resilient (unlike AAPL) and are pretty much automatic buys on dips. I've started to do this myself and it seems so much easier to disregard fundamentals and just make money. Can't bring myself to sell off my AAPL stake though.
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Post by firestorm on Jul 22, 2016 9:42:35 GMT -8
Official consensus for earnings is 1.39. Whisper number is 1.43. Deagol is predicting 1.46, which, if it happens would be nice because it's least above the whisper. But remember that last year was 1.85, so either way we're looking at a 20-25% decrease Y/y. Just like in 2013, when y/y earnings were decreasing, the stock won't start to turnaround until WS believes that the decrease is over and earnings will start growing again. So the real question is: when will that be? But AAPL's P/E in 2013 was higher if I remember and it fell to just below 10, so not as far to drop this time. Here's to hopping Apple is holding a lot of cash for buybacks. I would rather have Apple use its cash for investments in the future of the company.
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Post by rickag on Jul 22, 2016 11:04:24 GMT -8
But AAPL's P/E in 2013 was higher if I remember and it fell to just below 10, so not as far to drop this time. Here's to hopping Apple is holding a lot of cash for buybacks. I would rather have Apple use its cash for investments in the future of the company. I believe they have enough to do both, don't they have $150 billion or so net debt. Though if they wanted to buy Exxon or Chevron maybe not. Edit: My humor fails again
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