Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on Aug 2, 2016 2:09:37 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by rickag on Aug 2, 2016 4:45:07 GMT -8
since84, thank you for starting the thread.
Max pain for Friday sits at $101, if I read it right. Seems like it should go higher, we'll see.
|
|
|
Post by mrentropy on Aug 2, 2016 6:13:19 GMT -8
Wow, what a cliff dive. I often fail to understand what can change in people's minds that bid up a stock one day, just to sell it down the next.
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
|
Post by chinacat on Aug 2, 2016 6:17:09 GMT -8
Wow, what a cliff dive. I often fail to what can change in people's minds that bid up a stock one day, just to sell it down the next. Entropy? . . . Sorry, couldn't resist :P
|
|
|
Post by audiosculpture12 on Aug 2, 2016 6:17:52 GMT -8
Not a pretty picture today.
|
|
|
Post by mrentropy on Aug 2, 2016 6:45:36 GMT -8
Wow, what a cliff dive. I often fail to what can change in people's minds that bid up a stock one day, just to sell it down the next. Entropy? . . . Sorry, couldn't resist Fail to *understand*... (How do I miss typing whole words..?) And, nice... That made me chuckle.
|
|
|
Post by gtrplyr on Aug 2, 2016 7:00:18 GMT -8
BTFD ??
(Too early for that probably )
Cheers to the longs ....
|
|
|
Post by tuffett on Aug 2, 2016 7:16:32 GMT -8
Another fail of the 200MA upcoming?
|
|
|
Post by Luckychoices on Aug 2, 2016 7:19:24 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by archibaldtuttle on Aug 2, 2016 7:45:13 GMT -8
Another fail of the 200MA upcoming? Look at the weekly chart. 50 week MA is the one that has really been a lid on it...
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Aug 2, 2016 11:05:46 GMT -8
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Aug 2, 2016 12:08:21 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Aug 2, 2016 12:41:10 GMT -8
Tim Cook 10/27/2015 seekingalpha.com/article/3611256-apples-aapl-ceo-tim-cook-q4-2015-results-earnings-call-transcriptRevenue in Greater China nearly doubled year-over-year and we continue to focus and invest heavily there. I just returned from a four day visit to Hangzhou and Beijing where we announced major new initiatives to provide renewable energy for our supply chain. I also visited our retail stores in China which are among the busiest in the world. On Saturday we opened a new store, our 25th in Greater China to a very enthusiastic crowd and we are on track to achieve our goal of 40 stores by the middle of next year. ..... Also, if I zoom out and look at China, as I have said before and just to make the point once again is we see an enormous change in China over the next several years. The latest study I have seen from Mackenzie indicates if you look back five years China’s middle class had about 50 million people in it. If you look ahead five years, it will have ten times that number in it. And so -- and I feel like we are reasonably well positioned in China, I’m sure we can do better, but I think we are doing fairly well there. ...... If you look at China, we grew from an iPhone point of view, Greater China, we grew 87% the market grew for. If you take iPhone out of the market number, the certain market x iPhone actually contracted slightly. And so, we've been able to grow without the market growing. iPhone 6 was the number one selling smartphone in Mainland, China last quarter and iPhone 6 Plus was number three. And so, we did fairly well. The sort of the economic question which I know there's a bit lot of attention on, frankly, if I were to shut off my web and shut off the TV and just look how many customers are coming in our stores regardless to whether they're buying, how many people are coming online, and in addition looking at our sales trend, I wouldn't know if there was any economic issue at all in China. And so I don't know how unusual we are with that. I think that there's a misunderstanding probably particularly in the Western world about China's economy, which contributes to the confusion. That said, I don't think it’s growing as fast as it was, but I also don't think that Apple's results are largely dependent on minor changes than growth. I think it’s much more of contributing – I think other things contribute to that much more. That does say, you'll never had problem there, because the economy, I'm not saying, I'm dumb enough to think that. But I just think that the area that it's currently operating within, it's hard to tell the difference of the consumer level for us. I mean, you really can't tell the difference, if you look at sort of our daily and weekly numbers. So, we're very bullish on it, and I would point out that we're investing in China not for next or the quarter after, or the quarter after, we're investing for the decades ahead and as we look at it our own views is that China will be Apple's top market in the world. And that's not just for sales, that's also developer community is growing faster than any other country in the world. And so, the ecosystem there is very, very strong. I was very impressed with the number the developers I met last week and of course, the customers in stores are enthusiastically contagious. LUCA: Services growth was particularly impressive in China, where Apple App Store revenue grew by 127% year-over-year. The momentum behind the App Store in China has been tremendous with huge interest from developers and customers alike. Our developer program in China has grown dramatically in the last year with over 1 million members in our program today. That was less than 9 months ago
WTF happened?
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Aug 2, 2016 12:48:45 GMT -8
more on China: Tim Cook 1/26/2016 (7 months ago) seekingalpha.com/article/3836826-apples-aapl-ceo-tim-cook-q1-2016-results-earnings-call-transcriptWe know the conditions in China have been a source of concern for many investors. Last summer, while many companies were experiencing weakness in their China-based results, we were seeing just the opposite, with incredible momentum for iPhone, Mac and the App Store, in particular. In the December quarter, despite the turbulent environment, we produced our best results ever in Greater China, with revenue growing 14% over last year, 47% sequentially, and 17% year-over-year in constant currency. These great results were fueled by our highest ever quarterly iPhone sales and record App Store performance. Notwithstanding these record results, we began to see some signs of economic softness in Greater China earlier this month, most notably in Hong Kong. Beyond the short-term volatility, we remain very confident about the long-term potential of the China market and the large opportunities ahead of us and we are maintaining our investment plans. ...... In terms of China, the LTE penetration as of the end of last October, which is the last data I've got, was in the mid-20s. And so there's an enormous upgrade cycle there for people that are still running on 3G handsets. Also, I've talked about this before, but I think it's worth mentioning again, because it's easy to lose perspective with some of the things you read every day, is that the middle-class in China was less than 50 million people in 2010, and by 2020, it's projected to be about half a billion.And so there's just an enormous number of people moving into the middle-class. And we think this provides us a great opportunity to win over some of those customers into the Apple ecosystem. And so I think the demographics are great. We're continuing to invest in retail stores. Angela and her team have been on this very aggressive rollout plan. We now have 28 stores in Greater China and we're on target to have 40 in the summertime of this year.
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Aug 2, 2016 12:55:38 GMT -8
more on China from 4/26/2016 seekingalpha.com/article/3968300-apple-aapl-timothy-donald-cook-q2-2016-results-earnings-call-transcriptLUCA: On a geographic basis, in Asia, our revenue grew strongly in Japan, but it declined in greater China and the rest of Asia-Pacific. However, our business in these two regions is faring better than the numbers might suggest. We had significant channel inventory reductions and currency weakness, which affected our reported revenue for both these segments. In Mainland China, revenue was down 11%, and the decline was 7% in constant currency terms. Keep in mind that we were up against an extremely difficult year-ago compare when our Mainland China revenue grew 81%. We remain very optimistic about the China market over the long term, and we are committed to investing there for the long run. Tim Cook: If you take Greater China, we include Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Mainland China in the Greater China segment that you see reported on your data sheet. The vast majority of the weakness in the Greater China region sits in Hong Kong. And our perspective on that is it's a combination of the Hong Kong dollar being pegged to the U.S. dollar, and therefore it carries the burden of the strength of the U.S. dollar. And that has driven tourism, international shopping, and trading down significantly compared to what it was in the year ago. If you look at Mainland China, which is one that I am personally very focused on, we are down 11% in Mainland China on a reported basis. On a constant currency basis, we're only down 7%. And the way that we really look at the health or underlying demand is look at sell-through. And if you look at it there, we were down 5%. And keep in mind that that's down 5% on a comp a year ago that was up 81%. And so as I back up from this and look at the larger picture, I think China is not weak as has been talked about. I see China as may not have the wind at our backs that we once did, but it's a lot more stable than what I think is the common view of it. And so we remain really optimistic on China. We opened seven stores there during the quarter. We now are at 35. We'll open five more this quarter to achieve 40, which we had talked about before. And the LTE adoption continues to rise there, but it's got a long way ahead of it. And so we continue to be really optimistic about it and just would ask folks to look underneath the numbers at the details of them before concluding anything.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Aug 2, 2016 13:07:07 GMT -8
I would give Apple a little time to absorb $105B in trailing-two-year sales for Greater China before drawing any hard conclusions.
FQ4 gives the first little clue. FQ1 2017 will be a very, very handy checkpoint.
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Aug 2, 2016 13:31:21 GMT -8
I would give Apple a little time to absorb $105B in trailing-two-year sales for Greater China before drawing any hard conclusions. FQ4 gives the first little clue. FQ1 2017 will be a very, very handy checkpoint. I still don't understand your enthusiasm.... From 7/26/2016 seekingalpha.com/article/3991811-apple-aapl-timothy-donald-cook-q3-2016-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=singleTim Cook: On a personal note, during the past quarter I visited China and India, and I am very encouraged about our growth prospects in those countries. We remain very optimistic about the long-term opportunities in Greater China and we continue to invest there. We opened our 41st Greater China retail store during the quarter, and we also made a $1 billion investment in Didi Chuxing. Switchers and first-time smartphone buyers represented the lion's share of our iPhone sales in the quarter, and our installed base of iPhones in China has grown by 34% over the last year alone. According to China Mobile, there are more iPhones on their network than any other brand, with iPhone users ranking first in terms of customer loyalty, data usage and ARPU. By far, the largest portion of our global channel inventory reduction was in Greater China, so our underlying business there is stronger than our results imply. We face some challenges in Greater China, as the economic environment has slowed down since the beginning of the year. This is reflected in consumer confidence and retail spending, and the Chinese yuan has depreciated by 7% relative to the U.S. dollar since August of last year. Hong Kong's tourism and retail businesses also continue to be significantly impacted by the stronger Hong Kong dollar relative to other Asian currencies.Combining this backdrop with the tough comparison to last year, when revenue grew 112%, and the channel inventory reduction this year, we're reporting a decline in revenue in the June quarter. But to keep things in perspective, when we look back on our accomplishments in this segment over the last couple of years, they are truly remarkable. In the first three quarters of this fiscal year, our total revenue from Greater China was almost $40 billion, up 55% from the same timeframe just two years ago, while iPhone units were up 47%. LUCA: As we move ahead into the September quarter, I'd like to review our outlook, which includes the types of forward-looking information that Nancy referred to at the beginning of the call. We expect revenue to be between $45.5 billion and $47.5 billion. (LAST year actual= "The Company posted quarterly revenue of $51.5 billion " www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000119312515354756/d74332dex991.htm
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Aug 2, 2016 13:43:21 GMT -8
The funny thing is, my post is only about operating margin. It's STILL THERE, probably because of Services.
You can refuse to give Apple any credit for growing to a $58B, then...I dunno...maybe $48-50B Greater China business in FY 2015 and FY 2016 if you want. Free country.
All I'm saying is, the profitability is still there.
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
|
Post by chinacat on Aug 2, 2016 14:02:08 GMT -8
I still don't understand your enthusiasm.... From 7/26/2016 seekingalpha.com/article/3991811-apple-aapl-timothy-donald-cook-q3-2016-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=singleTim Cook: ... Combining this backdrop with the tough comparison to last year, when revenue grew 112%, and the channel inventory reduction this year, we're reporting a decline in revenue in the June quarter. But to keep things in perspective, when we look back on our accomplishments in this segment over the last couple of years, they are truly remarkable. In the first three quarters of this fiscal year, our total revenue from Greater China was almost $40 billion, up 55% from the same timeframe just two years ago, while iPhone units were up 47%. I think that some of this stems from the same phenomenon that I previously mentioned regarding the 6/6S sales comparisons. The iPhone 6 Plus was even more important in China, where a smartphone is more often the only "computer" that an individual or even a family may have and larger screen sizes are highly desired. When combined with the first sizable rollout of LTE, this made for a unique demand situation. I have not looked at any data, but I would expect that replacement cycles in China for iPhone may be a bit longer than in the US, making it doubly hard to match the anomalous iPhone 6 cycle. Hence, Tim's focus on two year results. Does this mean that the decline should be ignored? No, not at all. But I really don't think that we have enough data to call it a trend. Also, I expect the iPhone SE to reach a section of the China market not previously accessible. So call me Pollyanna.
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
|
Post by chinacat on Aug 2, 2016 14:31:11 GMT -8
Apologies, Mav, I missed this paragraph in your article the first time around, which alludes to the same factor:
Generally speaking, increasing revenue leverage tends to have a very positive impact on operating margin provided cost discipline is there, and Greater China has been no exception, surging over the 35% operating margin mark at the end of FQ1 2015…the quarter of the now-infamous iPhone 6 launch.
|
|
|
Post by rezonate on Aug 2, 2016 14:40:27 GMT -8
Thought Apple should license TouchID to gun manufacturers for free. Use the tech to quickly enable for owner only. (Technical details are left as an exercise for the big brains.) Regardless the outcome, it would make a statement. The tech is fast enough for self defensive purposes, and a stolen weapon (like a stolen iPhone) becomes less useful to the perp.
|
|