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Post by mace on Jul 16, 2014 11:27:56 GMT -8
Presume you are aware of the bearish divergence at daily and hourly timeframe.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 16, 2014 12:08:42 GMT -8
Eh? Never been that great at divergences.
But I can't ignore the double-bearish engulfing candle/negative MACD-h crossover possibility on the daily, or the overall weakness of the hourly chart. Only skimmed the charts though, and not really involved right now. In a very high percentage of cash in my modest trading portfolio.
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Post by VicaVale on Jul 16, 2014 12:31:51 GMT -8
Presume you are aware of the bearish divergence at daily and hourly timeframe. So, where is AAPL in the wave count at this point? I'm really confused. Maybe back to 85-90?
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Post by mace on Jul 16, 2014 13:35:11 GMT -8
Not much change to this preferred count. Almost certain is in 3.iv. What is uncertain is whether it is completed or not. Price behavior of wave fours are usually impossible to read correctly. wave 1 = $53.36 to $81.22, length = $27.86 wave 2 = $81.22 to $69.70 wave 3.i = $69.70 to $78.30, length = $8.60 wave 3.ii = $78.30 to $72.64 wave 3.iii = $72.64 to $95.05 wave 3.iv = $95.05 to ... 14.6% ret = $91.78 (passed) 23.6% ret = $89.76 (passed) 38.2% ret = $86.49 (lowest so far is $89.65) 50.0% ret = $83.85 (lower than this, need to reassess) 61.8% ret = $81.20 (lower than this, must reassess) WAG: 3.iv.A = $95.05 to $89.65 (alternate is this is completion of 3.iv) 3.iv.B = $89.65 to $97.10 (if alternate is right, this is 123 of an impulse that would complete around $105), must not higher than $97.11 3.iv.C = $97.10 to ... Four possibilities: One: Complete at $91.70 Two: Complete at $89.65 Three: Complete at $86.31 Four: A triangle with apex at $96 VicaVale, Too lazy to make another post, updated the same post. Currently, should be in 3.iv.C (down wave or side way triangle) - frankly, too complex to read. May be better to use TA like divergences and stochastics.
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Post by VicaVale on Jul 16, 2014 14:53:34 GMT -8
Thanks, Mace! The Elliott Wave analysis you generously provide is a great heads up.
I'm waiting to see how AAPL responds at the 20SMA @ 93.34 which also happens to be the 50% Fib retrace (93.30). If it sinks below that, then the 61.8% retrace @92.40. After that, comes the complete retrace to 89.65. If below that....YIKES!
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Post by mace on Jul 24, 2014 22:15:24 GMT -8
Wave 3.iv appears to be a triangular wedge. Updated WAG.
wave 1 = $53.36 to $81.22, length = $27.86 wave 2 = $81.22 to $69.70 wave 3.i = $69.70 to $78.30, length = $8.60 wave 3.ii = $78.30 to $72.64 wave 3.iii = $72.64 to $95.05 wave 3.iv = $95.05 to ...
14.6% ret = $91.78 (passed) 23.6% ret = $89.76 (passed) 38.2% ret = $86.49 (lowest so far is $89.65) 50.0% ret = $83.85 (lower than this, need to reassess) 61.8% ret = $81.20 (lower than this, must reassess)
WAG: 3.iv.A = $95.05 to $89.65 3.iv.B = $89.65 to $96.80 3.iv.C = $96.80 to $92.57 3.iv.D = $92.57 to $97.88 3.iv.E = $97.88 to ... Wave E can undershoot or overshoot. Undershoot merely filled gap and resume up trend. Overshoot would be between $92.57 to $89.65 (hehe, this target is still in play)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 24, 2014 22:31:45 GMT -8
Technical World (TW) suggests move to 110 possible.
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Post by mace on Jul 26, 2014 2:20:01 GMT -8
Technical World (TW) suggests move to 110 possible. Without declining to below $90 first? Did you see a rising wedge with a bearish divergence? If yes, you might want to web search what that mean.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 26, 2014 11:47:12 GMT -8
I'm aware of the rising wedge possibility, but EW is predicting something that technicals don't fully support.
If it WAS the "prevailing" technical theory then there's also strength on the weekly chart and the micro-timeframe bull flag to consider.
How well does EW explain the SPY from, say, late 2011?
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Post by mace on Jul 26, 2014 15:40:11 GMT -8
I'm aware of the rising wedge possibility, but EW is predicting something that technicals don't fully support. If it WAS the "prevailing" technical theory then there's also strength on the weekly chart and the micro-timeframe bull flag to consider. How well does EW explain the SPY from, say, late 2011? Not in same frequency/ time frames. Didn't monitor SPY at all. IMHO, TA is saying the same as EW, in all time frames.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 26, 2014 18:08:48 GMT -8
IF ONLY IPAD HAD AN OPINION ON THIS ahem
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 26, 2014 18:09:15 GMT -8
Also. Wait, you dumped your Sep calls then? Why hold?
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Post by mace on Jul 26, 2014 18:27:08 GMT -8
Also. Wait, you dumped your Sep calls then? Why hold? Converse with you can make me vomit blood. Hedge . Sold tons of Apr calls and 85/100 Jan spreads, plough a fraction into Sep calls to hedge. Current delta of those Sep calls is only a fraction of sold option position but if rally, delta would be substantial. Hey, I may need to charge you for option lesson .
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 26, 2014 19:06:43 GMT -8
You can always put me on ignore, mace.
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Post by mace on Jul 27, 2014 23:22:14 GMT -8
Mav,
I know what trading textbooks, brokerage training courses and finance professionals/professors said but I like to have my own way to view stuffs (I am a renegade). IMHO, those are their opinions, and they are entitled to them.
Closing an open long position is equivalent to adding a short position to it. So hedging could mean long some calls.
Closing an open short position is equivalent to adding a long position to it. So hedging could mean long some puts.
Is usually good to hedge.
One corollary to above is I don't agree with taking profits is always good unless you have put on some hedge on. One of those thinking that is opposite with generally accepted opinion.
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Post by mace on Aug 19, 2014 11:08:15 GMT -8
I think share buyback and dividends mess up the fib numbers a bit, in any case have always not able to read wave four. Based on look and feel, wave 3.iv has completed (an expanded flat as expected but with wave C only same length as wave A).
wave 1 = $53.36 to $81.22, length = $27.86 wave 2 = $81.22 to $69.70 wave 3.i = $69.35 to $77.92, length = $8.57 wave 3.ii = $77.92 to $72.28 (regular flat) wave 3.iii = $72.28 to $94.58, length = $22.30 about 2.618 of wave 3.i (perfect) wave 3.iv = $94.58 to $93.28 (expanded flat) wave 3.v = $93.28 to ...
price targets for wave 3.v are: length of wave v = 0.618 of wave i, $98.58 (passed) length of wave v = length of wave i, $101.85 length of wave v = 1.618 of length of wave i, $107.15
For multi-month to multi-year picture:
wave 1 = $53.10 to $80.82, length = $27.86 wave 2 = $80.82 to $69.35 wave 3 = $69.35 to ...
For wave 5 Minimum target is 1.618 of length of wave 1 = $97.95 (passed) Norm target is 2.618 of length of wave 1 = $125.67 Max target is 7 of length of wave 1 = $248.01
For wave 3 Min target is 0.618 of wave 1 = $86.48 (passed) Norm target is 1.618 of wave 1 = $114 Max target is capped by $248.01
Primary degree waves last a few months to a couple of years. So above is the multi-month picture.
wave 1 took 8 months. So, entire impulse should normally take 2.618 x 8 = $21 months i.e. Jan 2015. $125 by Jan 2015, min should be $115.
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Post by senergy on Aug 20, 2014 5:26:25 GMT -8
Mace, thanks for the Elliot Wave update. If we are in 3.v, then wouldn't a wave 4 be coming up? If so, any targets and time frames for wave 4? Thanks.
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Post by mace on Aug 20, 2014 7:33:01 GMT -8
Mace, thanks for the Elliot Wave update. If we are in 3.v, then wouldn't a wave 4 be coming up? If so, any targets and time frames for wave 4? Thanks. Normally, wave 4 goes back to 3.iv price zone i.e. $93-$94.
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Post by senergy on Aug 20, 2014 14:14:46 GMT -8
Thanks
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Post by mace on Sept 3, 2014 10:12:51 GMT -8
Mace, thanks for the Elliot Wave update. If we are in 3.v, then wouldn't a wave 4 be coming up? If so, any targets and time frames for wave 4? Thanks. Normally, wave 4 goes back to 3.iv price zone i.e. $93-$94. Very tempted to call the completion of 3.v, probably have to wait for Sep 9 to confirm.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 15, 2014 16:49:58 GMT -8
Mace, ditto.
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Post by macwire on Sept 16, 2014 3:27:37 GMT -8
Any count thoughts guys?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Post by artman1033 on Oct 1, 2014 3:28:10 GMT -8
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Post by mace on Oct 2, 2014 1:09:53 GMT -8
His wave iv might be identical to my wave 4 - misreading by one degree is normal. Pattern of wave 4 is impossible to predict till is over. Given our behavior, the possible pattern are: a. Combo - which is what the poster proposed b. Triangle - means currently in wave d (up) up to $102.50, follow by a wave e (down), target $98, usually overshoot to may be $96. c. flat - now in wave (5) of wave c, target $97. Regardless of the wave 4 pattern, targets of wave 5 are as post dated Aug 19.
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Post by senergy on Oct 2, 2014 5:05:49 GMT -8
Normally, wave 4 goes back to 3.iv price zone i.e. $93-$94. Very tempted to call the completion of 3.v, probably have to wait for Sep 9 to confirm. Mace: Are you now of the belief that 3.v has completed?
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Post by mace on Oct 2, 2014 12:38:26 GMT -8
Very tempted to call the completion of 3.v, probably have to wait for Sep 9 to confirm. Mace: Are you now of the belief that 3.v has completed? Yes, confirmed long ago. 3.v completed, 4 might be completed and in wave 5. My guess is still in wave 4.
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Post by senergy on Oct 2, 2014 16:33:18 GMT -8
Thanks Mace. Appreciate you sharing your EW insights.
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Post by nagrani on Oct 2, 2014 17:14:12 GMT -8
Thx
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Post by nagrani on Oct 7, 2014 7:57:16 GMT -8
Mace - stil in wave 4?
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Post by mace on Oct 8, 2014 13:04:46 GMT -8
Reluctantly and cautiously think is in wave 5 since it captures 20-day SMA/$100.65. Almost certain the wave 4 pattern is a triangle, MACD has a hidden bullish divergence. If still in wave 4, at most 3 more waves before wave 5.
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