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Post by mace on Oct 14, 2014 7:05:16 GMT -8
Five zigzags from $103.74 (early Sep) to $98.89 (LoD so far), wave 4 might be completed, now in wave 5. If true, AAPL should not be lower than $98.89 over the next few days.
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Post by mace on Oct 14, 2014 7:21:56 GMT -8
Updated the preferred EW count to reflect dividends and the possibility of wave 5 has started.
Primary degree waves wave 1 = $53.10 to $80.82, length = $27.72 wave 2 = $80.82 to $69.35 wave 3 = $69.35 to $103.74, length = $34.39, 1.24 of length of wave 1 wave 4 = $103.74 to $98.89 wave 5 = $98.89 to ...
Minimum target is 1.618 of length of wave 1 = $97.95 (passed) Next possible target is $98.89 + 0.618 * length of wave 1 = $116.02 Norm target is 2.618 of length of wave 1 = $125.67 Max target is 7 of length of wave 1 = $248.01
Primary degree waves last a few months to a couple of years. So above is the multi-month picture.
wave 1 took 8 months. So, entire impulse should normally take 2.618 x 8 = $21 months i.e. Jan 2015.
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Post by nagrani on Oct 14, 2014 15:04:20 GMT -8
Five zigzags from $103.74 (early Sep) to $98.89 (LoD so far), wave 4 might be completed, now in wave 5. If true, AAPL should not be lower than $98.89 over the next few days. We closed lower - does that mean we aren't in wave 5?
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Post by mace on Oct 15, 2014 12:08:56 GMT -8
Five zigzags from $103.74 (early Sep) to $98.89 (LoD so far), wave 4 might be completed, now in wave 5. If true, AAPL should not be lower than $98.89 over the next few days. We closed lower - does that mean we aren't in wave 5? Still in wave 4. The triangle morphed into a regular flat with length of wave A = length of wave C. So, $95.18 could be the completion of wave 4 yet again . However, the more common flat pattern is an expanded flat i.e. length of wave C = 1.618 of length of wave A which bring AAPL to $90, that is what I thought should be the original pattern of wave 4. Wave 2 is a zigzag and by alternate theory, wave 4 should be one of the following pattern: a. flat, three types: truncated (wave 3.iv has this pattern), regular (currently is of this pattern, hopefully this is it), and expanded (much more common unfortunately) b. triangle, many types just like normal chart patterns e.g. descending wedge and symmetrical triangle. Wave 4 can't have the same pattern as wave 2, that's why when it first dropped to $96.14, I say is not completion of wave 4 both from pattern and time perspective (too short).
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Post by mace on Oct 23, 2014 7:25:12 GMT -8
Primary degree waves last a few months to a couple of years. So below is the multi-month picture:
wave 1 = $53.10 to $80.82, length = $27.72 wave 2 = $80.82 to $69.35, double zigzags wave 3 = $69.35 to $103.74, length = $34.39, 1.24 of length of wave 1 wave 4 = $103.74 to $95.18, regular flat wave 5 = $95.18 to ...
Minimum target is 1.618 of length of wave 1 = $97.95 (passed) Next possible target is $95.18 + 0.618 * length of wave 1 = $112.31 Then, $122.90 Norm target is 2.618 of length of wave 1 = $125.67 Max target is 7 of length of wave 1 = $248.01
wave 1 took 8 months. So, entire impulse should normally take 2.618 x 8 = $21 months i.e. Jan 2015. ======= WAG lower degree count for wave 5: 5.i.(1) = $95.18 to $105.05 (assuming is completion) 5.i.(2) = $105.05 to ... 23.6% ret, $102.72 (minimum) 38.2% ret, $101.28 (given strong momentum, expect complete here) 61.8% ret, $98.95 (usually here)
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Post by CdnPhoto on Oct 24, 2014 6:19:59 GMT -8
Primary degree waves last a few months to a couple of years. So below is the multi-month picture: <snip> Minimum target is 1.618 of length of wave 1 = $97.95 (passed) Next possible target is $95.18 + 0.618 * length of wave 1 = $112.31 Then, $122.90 Norm target is 2.618 of length of wave 1 = $125.67 Max target is 7 of length of wave 1 = $248.01 <snip> Is that a typo? I'm only starting to understand EW, but isn't there 5 waves?
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Post by mace on Oct 24, 2014 19:33:33 GMT -8
Primary degree waves last a few months to a couple of years. So below is the multi-month picture: <snip> Minimum target is 1.618 of length of wave 1 = $97.95 (passed) Next possible target is $95.18 + 0.618 * length of wave 1 = $112.31 Then, $122.90 Norm target is 2.618 of length of wave 1 = $125.67 Max target is 7 of length of wave 1 = $248.01 <snip> Is that a typo? I'm only starting to understand EW, but isn't there 5 waves? Max length of the impulse is seven times the length of wave 1. Not seven waves. Btw, since I learn EW in 2006, have only observed five times, most common is 2.618-3.618.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 25, 2014 19:59:12 GMT -8
I think the market may be in a Primary 4. WAG: that 10% haircut is the start of a larger degree corrective wave, likely not over in one month. May just go sideways. May even see new highs. I just don't think it's over so quickly.
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Post by nagrani on Nov 1, 2014 17:29:06 GMT -8
I think the market may be in a Primary 4. WAG: that 10% haircut is the start of a larger degree corrective wave, likely not over in one month. May just go sideways. May even see new highs. I just don't think it's over so quickly. Hey there driveby moderator - still think we are in 4?
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Post by mace on Nov 2, 2014 0:17:06 GMT -8
I think the market may be in a Primary 4. WAG: that 10% haircut is the start of a larger degree corrective wave, likely not over in one month. May just go sideways. May even see new highs. I just don't think it's over so quickly. Hey there driveby moderator - still think we are in 4? Just in case her car may has stalled somewhere in the wilderness, a quick eyeballing of the chart tells me that wave 5 for S&P is likely once above 2050, otherwise the risk of a sharp decline (below 1750) is very high.
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Post by nagrani on Nov 2, 2014 6:58:45 GMT -8
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Post by nagrani on Nov 2, 2014 6:59:14 GMT -8
If $NYMO gets over 100. I'm going ALL IN short the spy
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Post by macwire on Nov 2, 2014 11:24:33 GMT -8
If $NYMO gets over 100. I'm going ALL IN short the spy Anticipating a gap up Monday that I am going to sell into I think. That imo is the pain trade for wanna be longs and also capitulating shorts.
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Post by artman1033 on Nov 5, 2014 5:39:34 GMT -8
HE changed his name to: stocktwits.com/SwingTraderAmosin 24 hours he goes from: yesterday 7:44 AM $AAPL Most likely, Apple will pull back $103 support, before moving above $109.90 high stks.co/q0ycgto: $AAPL GET LONG TODAY! You must be present to win! $112.30 Daily Flag Target
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Post by macwire on Nov 5, 2014 5:54:40 GMT -8
That dude was bearish a few days ago. Or a week ago. lol
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Post by mace on Nov 5, 2014 16:20:55 GMT -8
Next possible target is $95.18 + 0.618 * length of wave 1 = $112.31 Artman, Told him don't misquote me. Is $112.31 not $112.30.
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Post by nagrani on Nov 5, 2014 16:34:25 GMT -8
Mace - do you think we retrace or go up from here?
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Post by mace on Nov 5, 2014 18:22:06 GMT -8
Mace - do you think we retrace or go up from here? My preference is for it to retrace to $106.50 but it might go to $112.31 first.
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Post by artman1033 on Nov 12, 2014 6:35:42 GMT -8
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Post by mace on Nov 12, 2014 12:06:49 GMT -8
He drew the wrong pennant, target should be $119 based on chart pattern analysis.
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Post by artman1033 on Nov 16, 2014 16:30:28 GMT -8
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Post by mace on Nov 16, 2014 21:12:41 GMT -8
Is more bullish than my preferred Cycle degree Count. However, do agree that a long (time) retracement would happen after hitting $125-$150 (exact value not sure yet, need to see how AAPL develops, move to 20% cash for option trading portfolio, not ready to go to 50% yet). My preferred Cycle degree count has the same wave 1 and 2 as the author. Instead of a' and b', I feel is 3 and 4. So his 3 would be my 5. But do feel the same as him, retracement after hitting $143 would be to $103 as the lowest, highly unlikely to go below $110.
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Post by mace on Nov 18, 2014 13:54:45 GMT -8
S&P shot above 1250, so the easy path is up.
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Mav
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Nov 18, 2014 14:06:27 GMT -8
1250?
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Post by mace on Nov 18, 2014 14:13:14 GMT -8
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Post by mace on Nov 20, 2014 16:41:45 GMT -8
History doesn't repeat, it rhythms. The closest chart that I am aware of since I follow AAPL when it is in momentum is 2005. Daily Chart from Feb 2005 till Feb 2006. Daily Chart of from Feb 2014 till Now. Observations: --------------- Momentum starts in late Apr/early May, a pause in early Sep, an even stronger rally from mid Oct. 10-day EMA is support until pause. Breakdown at second to fourth challenge applies to 10-day, 30-day and 50-day EMAs. ---------------------------------------- What will happen this time? ---------------------------------------- Everybody please chip in :-) Allow me to go first. A pause from early Dec ($119-$125) till late Dec ($110-$120). Last Hurray till Jan ER. Thereafter, dare not say. The reason for decline was the rumor that CEO AAPL xxx could be removed because xxx despite Apple business has just announced iPhone and future fundamentals can't be any better.
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Post by rickag on Nov 21, 2014 6:53:06 GMT -8
History doesn't repeat, it rhythms. The closest chart that I am aware of since I follow AAPL when it is in momentum is 2005. Daily Chart from Feb 2005 till Feb 2006. Daily Chart of from Feb 2014 till Now. Observations: --------------- Momentum starts in late Apr/early May, a pause in early Sep, an even stronger rally from mid Oct. 10-day EMA is support until pause. Breakdown at second to fourth challenge applies to 10-day, 30-day and 50-day EMAs. ---------------------------------------- What will happen this time? ---------------------------------------- Everybody please chip in :-) Allow me to go first. A pause from early Dec ($119-$125) till late Dec ($110-$120). Last Hurray till Jan ER. Thereafter, dare not say. The reason for decline was the rumor that CEO AAPL xxx could be removed because xxx despite Apple business has just announced iPhone and future fundamentals can't be any better. Thanks for the post. Very tricky here as we are at all time highs, I would be leery of the $120 and $125 numbers, but I also did not think WS would let AAPL get to a P/E above 18. If Apple revises guidance higher then off to the races.
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Post by ahmpower on Nov 23, 2014 12:27:39 GMT -8
Is more bullish than my preferred Cycle degree Count. However, do agree that a long (time) retracement would happen after hitting $125-$150 (exact value not sure yet, need to see how AAPL develops, move to 20% cash for option trading portfolio, not ready to go to 50% yet). My preferred Cycle degree count has the same wave 1 and 2 as the author. Instead of a' and b', I feel is 3 and 4. So his 3 would be my 5. But do feel the same as him, retracement after hitting $143 would be to $103 as the lowest, highly unlikely to go below $110. Hi guys, How likely is this scenario? I usually prefer to stay long and I had been thinking there is a strong enough rally to take us till 185-195 by 2015/2016. This price level would be enough for my financial goals. What worries me especially is that the extrapolation in the chart (and comment on long time) gives a wait of several years before getting back above 143-145. I would really have to take profit if you say it is a really likely scenario.
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Post by mace on Nov 23, 2014 15:39:43 GMT -8
How likely is this scenario? I usually prefer to stay long and I had been thinking there is a strong enough rally to take us till 185-195 by 2015/2016. This price level would be enough for my financial goals. What worries me especially is that the extrapolation in the chart (and comment on long time) gives a wait of several years before getting back above 143-145. I would really have to take profit if you say it is a really likely scenario. Don't depend on AAPL for anything so I really don't care.
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Post by artman1033 on Nov 29, 2014 13:59:40 GMT -8
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