Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Aug 19, 2016 2:30:07 GMT -8
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Post by tuffett on Aug 19, 2016 5:28:59 GMT -8
Sure Apple could be pushing out new bells and whistles like Samsung or others, but why should they? They have the high ground and they know it. To their credit, they are using it to advance how technology benefits mankind, rather than to make the next quarter look good. The fact that this approach makes them the most profitable company in the history of the world doesn't bother me at all. Firstly, I don't consider things like better screens, bigger batteries and smaller device footprint "bells and whistles". Those are huge things that add positively to the user experience - something that is supposed to be at the forefront of Apple's design ethos. If the situation were reversed and Apple were leading these items I have no doubt that you'd recognize their importance. Hardware wise, Apple leads only on chip design. Competitors have pulled ahead everywhere else, including design, sadly. Secondly, are you advocating that Apple hold back on features because they have the high ground? That sounds like a company that's lost its way and is now focused on milking consumers dry. And by the way, that high ground that you mention is becoming shallower. Apple has clearly miscalculated on how strong their user base is. It certainly is strong, but the lacklustre 6s numbers are proving that if a device is not compelling, a good number of people will hang onto their old phones or move to more attractive competing devices, based on either features or cost. iPhones command a premium and that premium needs to prove worthwhile. They cannot bank on the brand forever.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Aug 19, 2016 6:56:08 GMT -8
Sure Apple could be pushing out new bells and whistles like Samsung or others, but why should they? They have the high ground and they know it. To their credit, they are using it to advance how technology benefits mankind, rather than to make the next quarter look good. The fact that this approach makes them the most profitable company in the history of the world doesn't bother me at all. Firstly, I don't consider things like better screens, bigger batteries and smaller device footprint "bells and whistles". Those are huge things that add positively to the user experience - something that is supposed to be at the forefront of Apple's design ethos. If the situation were reversed and Apple were leading these items I have no doubt that you'd recognize their importance. Hardware wise, Apple leads only on chip design. Competitors have pulled ahead everywhere else, including design, sadly. Secondly, are you advocating that Apple hold back on features because they have the high ground? That sounds like a company that's lost its way and is now focused on milking consumers dry. And by the way, that high ground that you mention is becoming shallower. Apple has clearly miscalculated on how strong their user base is. It certainly is strong, but the lacklustre 6s numbers are proving that if a device is not compelling, a good number of people will hang onto their old phones or move to more attractive competing devices, based on either features or cost. iPhones command a premium and that premium needs to prove worthwhile. They cannot bank on the brand forever. Let me try again. While many companies may introduce features that exceed Apple's current specs, no one has the ability to innovate across the hardware/software/services spectrum like Apple. This is why we don't see a challenger to ApplePay. ApplePay requires hardware(Fingerprint recognition) software (to set up cards) and services (to process transactions). Do you really consider Samsung Pay an equal offering? My point was and is that it is the synergy between these systems that provides the opportunity for real innovation. Now, don't let me stop you from rushing out and buying each new iteration of Samsung that comes along. I think some people might see value in a phone that can also fire a 22 caliber round (it's real) or one that is too small to use. If you have it first, you get a few days of attention, so there's that. I am not sure why you construct the straw man argument that I am saying that Apple should hold back on features, I think a better way to say it is that features are only important if they contribute to the overall goal of the product and that is the path that Apple follows. As far as your comment on how strong Apple's user base is, I refer you to yesterday's Asymco article, "Counting Apple's Customers. I read an article today commenting on how people no longer lined up at the Apple stores. I think you might share that loss of excitement that once marked Apple's introduction of new products and I understand that. But I believe that the hard work of evolving the systems takes time and is often not visible. Chip design, the evolution of IOS and MAC OS, device security, these are all things that are much harder than adding megapixels to the cameras or changing the display. I believe that a company with the R&D investment that Apple has is going to continue to bring us breakthrough products. Will it be a new iPhone? Probably not, any more than the iPhone was just a new iPod. But there is a larger vision out there and I believe Apple sees it. The same thinkers who imagined the iPad and modern GUI's were talking about ubiquitous computing decades ago. Now it is becoming a reality. While it once made sense to have the computing device on our desk and then in our pocket, we are on the verge of a time when the computing device is all around us. I think that is an area that Apple is headed toward, hence the iWatch. But we are just seeing the beginning of this revolution and to make it happen, a company has to be able to make the hardware and software and services all work together. This is not going to happen overnight, but it will happen. 20 years ago, we could not imagine a computer without a floppy disc, today we think in terms of a device that lets us access the web and the cloud. Tomorrow, perhaps we will take it for granted that the devices around us just know who we are and what they should do. I probably won't be around to see it, but Apple will.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,635
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 19, 2016 7:18:30 GMT -8
Secondly, are you advocating that Apple hold back on features because they have the high ground? That sounds like a company that's lost its way and is now focused on milking consumers dry. And by the way, that high ground that you mention is becoming shallower. Apple has clearly miscalculated on how strong their user base is. It certainly is strong, but the lacklustre 6s numbers are proving that if a device is not compelling, a good number of people will hang onto their old phones or move to more attractive competing devices, based on either features or cost. iPhones command a premium and that premium needs to prove worthwhile. They cannot bank on the brand forever. We saw an Apple Maps van driving up 431 last Sunday on our way to Reno. If it was recording, our silver minivan with yakima roof rack should be right here, on a hairpin corner at the snowplow sheds: 431 at snowplow shedSadly, the "battlebot building" at the Discovery Museum nvdm.org that we were headed to was a bit of a letdown, instead just giving the option of putting a few legos on the front of a bumper they had glued on to the front. Back to Apple, long ago it started switching it's focus at different times, like with the iPhones doing a more major redesign on year, and upgrading some chips and parts the next. HW is nice, but the software matters just as much or more. Years ago, on one OS X release Apple would focus on features, and the next it would focus on speed and refining, along with bug squashing. We can see similar happening with iOS. There's only so much Apple can do in one release, while keeping to a yearly cycle and keeping quality high. The times when they don't add a bunch of new HW or SW features, you know they are working on refining it. As for the feature war, just look at Apple Pay for an example. Sure, some other phones had the HW chip in them before Apple. But really, the big steps in the industry have been made in the past 2 years since Apple entered into the game. Sometimes it's good to be the early leader, but like watching a 800+m race on the Olympics, often patience pays off, and the initial leader isn't the winner.
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Post by Volvocoupe on Aug 19, 2016 7:30:53 GMT -8
So sad that so may people here have No faith left in Apple. Now we have Samsung trolls working hard to create doubt in members minds, assisting the media who receives 100's of millions from Samsung (the horrendously corrupt chaboel) that just poisoned 200 workers and has worked with the also corrupt S. Korean government to cover it up. Absolutely no respect for the serial copier. Then there is Comcast owned CNBC. I used to come here for insight into what Apple might be doing in the future and to share a deep understanding of what has and continued to make Apple great. Who else would stand up to the FBI? Now I think only Lucky and Bud are left to stop this forum from succumbing to negativity and pessimism. Please forgive me if I forgot to name others. Even in the era of Donald Drumpf this is not excusable. Why come here to spread your misery people? Why not just stop posting if you have lost faith, are susceptible to pessimism rather than optimism and have no vision. Really, show some class! So sad to see us slip into a morass this deep. I suppose we will never hear of getting together in Vegas again. Just too optimistic I suppose. Signing off shortly and good fortune everyone. Regards, V
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Post by sponge on Aug 19, 2016 7:48:02 GMT -8
Hey I am going to Vegas this weekend. Bullish as ever on Apple. Went to Apple Store to get my iPhone cleaned. It was not busy except for the Genius Bar. Can't wait for the 7 and I think millions are waiting as well.
Today's fake move and this weeks flat pattern tells me the stock wants to hit that 112 target. The run up to the iPhone 7 is in full swing and reaching a top a week before announcement.
No longer see two drops this quarter. One gradual one into Oct OE.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
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Post by chinacat on Aug 19, 2016 7:48:15 GMT -8
Howdy, V! I share your dismay that a few dedicated naysayers have come to dominate the discussions here. For myself, I feel that providing positive news and outlook (which these days are certainly hard to find in the general, non-Apple focused, business reporting sites) is the best path to take. I have certainly found that attempting to question or respond to the negative trolls only seems to spur them on to greater activity. My recurring question is why those with a relentlessly negative view of the company do not find investments about which they can feel more positive.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
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Post by chinacat on Aug 19, 2016 7:50:52 GMT -8
Hey I am going to Vegas this weekend. Bullish as ever on Apple. Went to Apple Store to get my iPhone cleaned. It was not busy except for the Genius Bar. Can't wait for the 7 and I think millions are waiting as well. Today's fake move and this weeks flat pattern tells me the stock wants to hit that 112 target. The run up to the iPhone 7 is in full swing and reaching a top a week before announcement. No longer see two drops this quarter. One gradual one into Oct OE. Hey, Sponge! I am glad to see you posting unhidden again, whether or not I agree with your posts.
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Post by mace on Aug 19, 2016 7:52:59 GMT -8
When you read too much negative news, you are unconsciously influenced by them. The word innovation has been corrupted and sometimes intentionally narrowed to single function.
Apple's innovation lies on improving the user experience and usefulness of the iPhone through careful design and integration of hardware, software and service.
Mathematically, Single function improvement, say, 10 folds, so overall system improvement = function improvement x software x service = 10 x 1 x 1 = 10 Apple's improve each by 3 folds, so overall system improvement = 3 x 3 x 3 = 27 If you look at only one dimension (any one of the three), Apple's innovation is behind competitors.
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Post by tuffett on Aug 19, 2016 7:58:47 GMT -8
I guess we have different ideas of what this forum is. Some think it should be a safe haven of Apple positivity, others like myself think of it as a place for intelligent people to discuss Apple and AAPL as a company and as an investment, be it short or long term.
I don't like to get emotional about my investments because it has done a lot of damage in the past. I have cultivated a more cynical stance on things because I think it's a good thing to always be questioning what is wrong and what can go wrong with a company you are invested in. I still believe in the long term strength of Apple but I do see some concerning things and I am going to express them. It's up to each individual to agree or disagree, but to label any negativity as shilling for Samsung is sad. I am not a Samsung shill - I'd like nothing more for them to get what they deserve. I'm just stating my observations. Like it or not, Samsung has recovered and is again doing well.
Frankly if I could get iOS on an S7 Edge I'd probably prefer that to the iPhone right now. That's an indictment on the iPhone because I've never felt that way before, and I am not alone. The iPhone feels stale and there is a ton of room to optimize the design. I'll never use Android but there are people who aren't so inflexible and regularly switch between whatever phone they perceive to be the best.
Bud, I agree with you that Apple is working on things that are much more difficult than putting in a better screen or better battery. My point is that people are waiting for these "easy" things so why is Apple taking so long to do it? Is the biggest company in the world really stretched so thin that they can't do this? If so, I think that's inexcusable given the pace that competitors are on. I think we can safely say that we've reached a point where sales are being impacted by a lack of progress.
I find the frequent invitation to sell my shares if I'm not happy quite patronizing. Investors are allowed to be (and should be) concerned about their investments. I'm concerned about ALL my investments, not just AAPL. AAPL is simply my largest position and what I spent more time on.
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Post by rezonate on Aug 19, 2016 8:22:43 GMT -8
It is refreshing to get some negative spin on Apple. The luster has really gotten dull. But I am excited to purchase the 9.7" iPad Pro soon (as soon as I get my first paycheck, which has been delayed four months and is a whole other story). If you have disposable income to drop on a "fun device", where would you go? If you are a professional who wants a no fuss, no muss device to actually get some work done, which vendor offers the best value? My read is the answer to both questions is no longer Apple, Inc. Software sells devices, sure. But the devices themselves provide the profit. Yet, that formula shifted last quarter. Will it be a permanent shift?
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Aug 19, 2016 8:53:13 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 19, 2016 9:10:01 GMT -8
I don't like to get emotional about my investments because it has done a lot of damage in the past. I have cultivated a more cynical stance on things because I think it's a good thing to always be questioning what is wrong and what can go wrong with a company you are invested in. I still believe in the long term strength of Apple but I do see some concerning things and I am going to express them. It's up to each individual to agree or disagree, but to label any negativity as shilling for Samsung is sad. I am not a Samsung shill - I'd like nothing more for them to get what they deserve. I'm just stating my observations. Like it or not, Samsung has recovered and is again doing well. Right on! In the past our portfolio has temporarily lost more than 80% of it's value 4 times now, all due to how AAPL behaved, though two are the obvious huge overall market drops in the past 20 years. In being in a variety of groups over those years, it's easy to focus on just the good, or sometimes just on AAPL and not the overall market. And that kills things, whether you're just holding stock, or you are also using options and/or margin. Trying to see the positive and negative side of things, not just one or the other, really is beneficial. Thanks for attempting it....I hope I'm doing a good job at it too. From my end, I've realized that Apple and AAPL have changed dramatically. While I still hold the stock, mainly because I feel it is undervalued currently, I realize that it's a whole different beast now and due to it's size we'll likely never see the kind of pops that happened in the past. It takes a whole lot more to move the needle now. And due to all the other parts of the company, even if it went into and grew to the same size as someone else in the field, like Tesla or Netflix, that portion of the company would never be valued the same way, and thus the whole company is unlikely to see a huge valuation change. Maybe that's unfair? Maybe XOM sees the same thing, if they buy up or create the same that a small company might be doing in NG/Shale/oil/solar/algae/whatever. While I like seeing Chemical Engineers and other engineering majors highlighted in XOM's recent commercials, Apple isn't at the point that they have to advertise to the world that they do so much more than just one thing (oil refining or iPhone), even if the iPhone does earn them the most these days. But on those iPhones, with the drop of many subsidies, and HW that's held up well, there's a good chance that many have extended their personal refresh cycles. While I'm tempted with Sprints BOGO offer on a 6s, we're so close to a refresh that we're just holding out. While that's not great for Apple, it's also not the very worst, as the customers are still there but just delaying their purchases. The big question is how many people are doing this? (BTW, while I am unfamiliar with the quality of Samsung's current HW, I know it's easy to sometimes get so used to Apple's quality that you don't expect a lower quality elsewhere. In particular I'm talking about screens. For a company I worked for I had to add a PC to the mix, so I bought a cheaper HP laptop. It's specs look great, memory, speed, size, etc. Overall it does pretty well, and I do use it when I want a portable with a larger screen than an iPhone. But lately when buying some ski jackets and watching shows on it I've realized that the color quality and viewing angles aren't up to what is expected from Apple. Likewise, the trackpad has some custom driver that makes most of the area be a right-click, and even with people over the years claiming how customizable a Windows machine is, I haven't been able to turn that off. It's mostly just used for web browsing and sometimes playing shows or movies on the TV, so I don't get into Windows much and can't really complain other than being less familiar with where some settings are. I just thought it interesting that on something one may take for granted and think of as a commodity since it's from a 3rd party manufacturer, that there still can be noticeable differences)
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Post by tuffett on Aug 19, 2016 9:33:15 GMT -8
^ Good post. Samsung's screens on their flagship phones are best in the industry, hands down. DisplayMate has crowned the Note 7 screen the best smartphone display ever tested. Apple used to lead the pack in display quality but no longer. I'm sure the switch to OLED next year (if the rumours are true) will bring them back in line but that's a whole year away. I'm not complaining about lack of innovation here, I'm complaining about the fact that Apple has fallen behind on essential components of the user experience on the hardware side. I'd advise those in doubt to go to a store and play around with some of the other offerings.
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Post by mace on Aug 19, 2016 9:33:53 GMT -8
Not true but just to make it dramatic, Galaxy hardware is 10 and iPhone is 3. Is Android OS 1 or 3?
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Post by artman1033 on Aug 19, 2016 9:41:22 GMT -8
FOR the record: I really like all things ....
It is the STOCK AAPL that I have issues.
MANAGEMENT DOES NOT CARE ABOUT SHORT TERM AAPL.
THE QUESTION IS: What is short term?
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Post by mace on Aug 19, 2016 9:42:45 GMT -8
...While I still hold the stock, mainly because I feel it is undervalued currently... The trick most companies did to unlock value i.e. up share price, is to spinoff but Apple is too tightly integrated to use this trick. So AAPL would be perpetually undervalued.
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Post by mace on Aug 19, 2016 9:50:35 GMT -8
... MANAGEMENT DOES NOT CARE ABOUT SHORT TERM AAPL. THE QUESTION IS: What is short term? It means do what traders, WS and job-hopping employees want. So Apple management does care about short term share price, otherwise it can't attract and retain talents. Turnover in SV is typically 10%, mostly individual contributors and junior managers. Startups typically pay 10%-30% above big boys. FB pays more than Google and Google pays more than Apple.
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Post by rickag on Aug 19, 2016 11:39:01 GMT -8
Damn, after reading the posts here I was sure AAPL was trading down, so I peeked and it is up. I will not be held responsible if it goes down from here for breaking the RHIS policy.
Oh, and what the hell is with all the toilets with no fold down toilet seats in Italy? Are my wife and I frequenting the less desirable bathrooms or something.
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Aug 19, 2016 16:36:18 GMT -8
This article seems to fit nicely into today's discussion. www.cnet.com/news/steve-wozniak-on-tim-cooks-first-5-years-as-apple-ceo/Steve Woz: "But is Cook visionary enough to keep Apple above the rest?" wondered IDC research analyst Bryan Ma. "The fact that smartphones are slowing and new areas like Apple Watch hasn't been a runaway hit yet aren't making that job any easier for him." Wozniak acknowledged the perception that Apple is not innovating as much. However, as far as he's concerned, the smartphone wars are very much a marathon rather than a sprint. "Sales are still high. Apple's brand is based not on the features this month or this model," he said. "Apple's brand is based on a long legacy of people that are satisfied and happy with how the product works and that continues to be the case." He added that Apple under Cook has never "made a product that is real awful and ugly." As for the future of Apple, he would only say that "Apple is always working on projects in secret, so I am sure there is quite a bit going on.""
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