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Post by joel90069 on Sept 23, 2016 11:28:42 GMT -8
This is really lame. GfK is a European "point of sale" market research firm. There were warnings that there would be little supply for walk in customers. Their data is meaningless. Customers pre-ordered if they wanted buy a 7. Check out iStock.Com. There is no supply in Europe. Contrast the US map, which is not included in the GfK report. Kind of coincidental these reports are always released on a Friday. Could options have anything to do with them?
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Post by rob_london on Sept 23, 2016 11:47:46 GMT -8
Bulge bracket U.S. trading desk points out GfK is point-of-sale info provider, tracks cash-register sales at retailers * Says GfK's data doesn't include online sales, pre-orders and likely phone carrier business; nor does account for supply issues, whether retailers stocking enough inventory * Therefore, given many variables associated with this source, see AAPL weakness as potential buying opportunity
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Post by tuffett on Sept 23, 2016 11:50:28 GMT -8
This is really lame. GfK is a European "point of sale" market research firm. There were warnings that there would be little supply for walk in customers. Their data is meaningless. Customers pre-ordered if they wanted buy a 7. Check out iStock.Com. There is no supply in Europe. Contrast the US map, which is not included in the GfK report. Kind of coincidental these reports are always released on a Friday. Could options have anything to do with them? So they're only looking at POS data? In the context of the iPhone that makes their observations about as useful as a POS (the other acronym).
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Post by joel90069 on Sept 23, 2016 11:55:53 GMT -8
Exactly!
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 23, 2016 13:31:35 GMT -8
Welcome to Wall Street ..... in retrospect, I've seen much worse declines on even more shoddy "research".
Par for the course .....
Cheers to the longs.
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Post by sponge on Sept 23, 2016 14:11:39 GMT -8
As much as I like the new iPhone 7 and believe it will do well, I am not quick to dismiss this report. We had similar type last year and they were proven right. This year anything better then 14% drop is good news. Look how the stock reacted after last quarter guidance. So any data showing a drop may not be correct but rather a confirmation that we won't see 20% growth indicated by reports from TMobile and Sprint.
I now expect to see other negative reports come out just in time with a market wide sellofff. Then we will recover in time for earnings that show modest gains in sales. I see 6-10% growth over next year.
This manipulation happens every year. 10 years ago it was iPods and 15 years it was Macs.
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Post by tuffett on Sept 23, 2016 14:23:26 GMT -8
I too take negative reports seriously but this one doesn't pass the smell test. Using point of sale data for a sold out item that is increasingly bought online gives zero indication of demand or actual sales.
If more reports come out confirming a slowdown via supply channel checks etc. then I will start to be more concerned. However, at this point I am expecting modest growth for FY17 and that should keep the stock well supported.
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Post by hledgard on Sept 23, 2016 15:43:30 GMT -8
What about this:
An article in Asian electronics trade Digitimes earlier on Friday also suggests that Apple has told its chip partners that its iPhone 7 chip orders will fall about 20% sequentially in the first quarter of 2017.
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Post by mace on Sept 23, 2016 15:50:08 GMT -8
What about this: An article in Asian electronics trade Digitimes earlier on Friday also suggests that Apple has told its chip partners that its iPhone 7 chip orders will fall about 20% sequentially in the first quarter of 2017. This is not normal post-Christmas?
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Post by osx10 on Sept 23, 2016 16:34:43 GMT -8
This piece wasn't even rom Ming-Chi Kuo it was some Digitimes second stringers.
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Post by sponge on Sept 23, 2016 16:43:37 GMT -8
Yes but wait until all these stories get some legs when a WS confirms withi their supply side sources.
It is early, but everyone wants to buy around the 200 MA.
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Post by drajjo on Sept 23, 2016 17:08:06 GMT -8
Clockworks, this news comes out at the top of wave-5. Just in time for the ABC correction. Servo, can you post the chart please?
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Post by mace on Sept 23, 2016 17:42:00 GMT -8
... It is early, but everyone wants to buy around the 200 MA. Are you saying what you think other are doing or expecting it? My thought is retracement is either over or continue down to test 50-day SMA. 200-day SMA would be tested only after the next push up, most probably, to $120 or may be $136. After the successful test of 200-day SMA would be the push to a new ATH... $175-$200 before Jan 2018. Views?
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Post by nagrani on Sept 23, 2016 17:51:03 GMT -8
... It is early, but everyone wants to buy around the 200 MA. Are you saying what you think other are doing or expecting it? My thought is retracement is either over or continue down to test 50-day SMA. 200-day SMA would be tested only after the next push up, most probably, to $120 or may be $136. After the successful test of 200-day SMA would be the push to a new ATH... $175-$200 before Jan 2018. Views? I'm holding ITM 2018 leaps based on that. Building a position.
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Post by sponge on Sept 23, 2016 19:08:53 GMT -8
... It is early, but everyone wants to buy around the 200 MA. Are you saying what you think other are doing or expecting it? My thought is retracement is either over or continue down to test 50-day SMA. 200-day SMA would be tested only after the next push up, most probably, to $120 or may be $136. After the successful test of 200-day SMA would be the push to a new ATH... $175-$200 before Jan 2018. Views? Don't see that unless 2nd quarter and 3rd really flop. Based on a p/e of 16 which is bullish, I see mid 150s by Jan 2018. Not enough revenue increase to move EPS much above 10. As far as drops, they can happen any time for any reason. 15% is very likely after new ATH in the next 6 months.
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Post by sponge on Sept 23, 2016 19:12:19 GMT -8
I should point out that we may not reach the 200 this year.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 23, 2016 21:15:55 GMT -8
Absolutely true! Kind of depressing if you let it get you down. Hope the AFB2 crew's all doing well! 1. Most people don't care enough about corporate ethics to have it influence their purchase decisions. 2. Most people actually believe Apple is morally worse than Samsung. They will cite patent trolling, worker exploitation/suicides, price gouging, tax evasion etc. Of course this is far from the truth but it's what is in the media and therefore what the average Joe believes.
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