Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Sept 26, 2016 2:38:08 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Sept 26, 2016 4:49:27 GMT -8
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Post by mrentropy on Sept 26, 2016 5:27:20 GMT -8
Once again, KGI has an excellent track record on iPhone hardware leaks, and an average to very poor record on predictions of sales numbers.
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Post by lulli on Sept 26, 2016 5:46:50 GMT -8
What I don't understand is how anyone could see any report about sales at this stage (even if true) as anything else than how many apple produced prior to announcement. Unless they actually have iphones sitting on shelves, this cannot be indicative of demand. So why those mindless reports so early?
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Post by tuffett on Sept 26, 2016 6:21:31 GMT -8
Is Gene Munster bipolar? It seems like he's changing his mind every day.
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Post by Luckychoices on Sept 26, 2016 8:07:39 GMT -8
I consider myself a reasonably patient person but I'm glad the majority of our AAPL investment came after the first blip on the bottom of the graph (1999-2000) instead of back in 1981. I'm not THAT patient. What Patience Looks Like in the Stock Market by Stefan Cheplick You’ve probably heard someone say it before. Or a variation of it. Or maybe you’ve thought of it yourself: “If I owned Apple since its IPO, I could have turned like $5,000 into over $1,000,000!” Apple went from trading at 50 cents per share (split-adjusted) back in 1981 to over $112 per share today. That’s a percent change of over 22,000%. For those who held its stock for that long — congrats. But not because you probabaly made a ton of money, but because of the amount of patience and trust in the company you maintained.
For 24 years Apple’s stock price bounced around in the green box shown on the chart above. Take a second to reflect on all the things that happened during those 24 years. From economic crises, to Steve Jobs getting fired in 1985, then rehired in 1997, and even the start and end of the notorious Dot Com Bubble. Could you have held through all of that? The really remarkable thing about Apple and its stock price isn’t how much wealth it created. Instead, it’s how much patience and trust investors needed to maintain despite any volatility. The green box is what real patience looks like in the stock market.
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Post by galleybob on Sept 26, 2016 8:32:36 GMT -8
Same with me. I bought after the Apple Cube and dot com crash in 2000. The stock was at a bargain basement price but remained flat for a few years until the iPod came out and then when iITunes was ported to Windows the party started.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Sept 26, 2016 10:20:50 GMT -8
This last fiasco with the report on Friday brings home an important perspective about investing in Apple. I think that most investors look at either the financial and market fundamentals or the technical behavior of the stock. While either or both may have some validity, one seldom hears discussions of an important third factor, the investing maturity of the stockholders. I think that buying a stock is like joining a club. The movement of the stock price depends on the psychology of the club members. Certainly technical analysis is based on that psychology, but for those who watch the stock for a long time, the behavior of the group becomes evident beyond just the mathematics of technical analysis.
One of my basic investing rules is "Don't fight the market" It is what it is and the club will behave as it will behave. Just because that behavior is irrational it does not mean that it is unpredictable. We have a great deal of evidence that the Apple club is unsophisticated. It is not just the way that the price reacts to the unending FUD, it is also the way that it reacts to "good" news. When we dropped from 700 to 385 pre-split, it was investment by Icahn that stopped the slide, despite his less than 1% share. Likewise, it was the 7-1 split that ignited the run from 60 to 130 post split.
I am not saying that all Apple investors are lemmings, just that you should be careful where you step.
More importantly, the real question for those of us who would like to see additional income while we are holding the stock is, how do we make money exploiting this knowledge of the club. I think that selling options that are far out of the money is one strategy worth looking at. The idea is to just patiently rake off the income while not having to worry about losing your position. I prefer to sell LEAPS and then wait for the inevitable emotional reaction up or down that allows me to buy them back at a discount. That lets the market manipulators work for me.
Finally, being in a position where I prosper from the irrationality of the system makes it a lot easier mentally to hold the stock for the long term gains.
The January 2019 puts and calls are out now, but volatility is extremely low. I suggest waiting until we are close to October earnings before selling puts and calls.
Keep in mind that I do not really understand what I am talking about.
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Post by davidstevenson on Sept 26, 2016 11:26:53 GMT -8
Luckychoices: "For 24 years Apple’s stock price bounced around in the green box shown on the chart above. Take a second to reflect on all the things that happened during those 24 years. From economic crises, to Steve Jobs getting fired in 1985, then rehired in 1997, and even the start and end of the notorious Dot Com Bubble. Could you have held through all of that? The really remarkable thing about Apple and its stock price isn’t how much wealth it created. Instead, it’s how much patience and trust investors needed to maintain despite any volatility. The green box is what real patience looks like in the stock market."
A snapshot of someone in the green box: one of the last shareholders' meeting I attended, about ten years ago, a grandmotherly woman asked this "question": My husband and I bought 100 shares of Apple for the IPO because we wanted to help you boys. We've been quite happy with our investment. And we read every word of the mailings you send us. Thank you very much. But when I read all the things that could go wrong, competition, suppliers, earthquakes, all that, it makes me anxious. Could you please stop talking about that?
Steve Jobs: If it makes you anxious, don't read it. Seriously, our lawyers tell us we have to say everything we could imagine that could go wrong. There's nothing we can do, we have to put that in.
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Post by mace on Sept 26, 2016 14:17:23 GMT -8
...I think that buying a stock is like joining a club. The movement of the stock price depends on the psychology of the club members. Certainly technical analysis is based on that psychology, but for those who watch the stock for a long time, the behavior of the group becomes evident beyond just the mathematics of technical analysis... Finally someone articulate better than me.
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Post by mace on Sept 26, 2016 14:22:03 GMT -8
... The January 2019 puts and calls are out now, but volatility is extremely low. I suggest waiting until we are close to October earnings before selling puts and calls... IV of options in the month of reporting tends to be high. That is, Oct, Jan, Apr and Jul. At present, IV of Oct 28 week is higher than earlier and later weeks. I sold some Oct 28 calls when AAPL is $115-$116. IV tends to explode when AAPL is rocketing.
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