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Post by tuffett on Nov 7, 2012 11:33:32 GMT -8
Capitulation doesn't happen when everyone is relatively calm like we were over the last couple of weeks. Based on the psyche of the board today, we may close to it now.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 7, 2012 11:33:55 GMT -8
all gains this year gone. ): very sad day indeed. will just have to be patient and try not to look at the stock for the next month or so... i'm long only but still sucks big time. was in the same boat last year, not much different... Hang in there. Your horse is down big, when it gets going again it will pull you along. AAPL is not a $560 stock. It will be over $700 within the next few months. Just hang in there.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 7, 2012 11:38:29 GMT -8
Read up on Oppenheimer and his guidance propensities. Are you referring to the comparison of his guidance vs. actual? I think there was a table out somewhere with that information. But I also wonder if TC is drinking the SJ kool-aid on guidance, or - as the engineer that he is - wants it instead to be more precise. Hopefully, SJ or Oppy has taught him the facts of life regarding dealing with analysts, and how important it is to sand bag (we could use some of them here in Jersey, as we're expecting a noreaster this afternoon). If so, then the underperforming results in July and October would really be due to people holding off buying the IPhone 4S and IPad.
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Post by rob_london on Nov 7, 2012 11:44:17 GMT -8
It would be great to see some concerted buying by the big boys in the last hour...
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Post by spoonman on Nov 7, 2012 11:46:05 GMT -8
This market action is making for some all over the place option prices. Marks are just swinging around like crazy. Also no real deals out there.
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Post by macwire on Nov 7, 2012 11:46:11 GMT -8
Chart is fuuugly. Buying is happening right now tho watching it.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Nov 7, 2012 11:50:14 GMT -8
I have to keep reminding myself that one year ago, Apple was at 400. At 550, I am up 37% for the year in addition to the dividend. Why would I want to sell this stock? What other stock with these fundamentals offers this kind of growth? Are people really just going to stop using Apple products? really? This is safer than treasuries and a lot more fun. Nope, just time for a deep breath.
Note to EO's....Capitulate on this.
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Post by greedynoob on Nov 7, 2012 11:55:00 GMT -8
...this is... a lot more fun... You are a sick, demented person
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Post by capablanca on Nov 7, 2012 11:58:58 GMT -8
I am an investor who sometimes trades.
I am not calling a bottom. Not smart enough. But I just bought back half of what I sold on September 17th. AAPL is cheap and Apple remains awesome.
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Post by Apple II+ on Nov 7, 2012 12:01:43 GMT -8
Hmm, entire market tanking. I wonder why that is. Futures went negative for the S&P 500, NAZ100, DOW, Russell 2000 and US$ just before it became apparent that Obama was going to win. It looked very much like the market action we saw when Greek elections rejected austerity. Fiscally, the US is out of control, thanks in no small part to policies begun in 1998, and horribly exacerbated by the Pied Piper from Chicago. I think the financial markets, with all that's going on, is saying they can't afford anymore 'hope and change'. "This board is becoming difficult to read. Some of you need to get a grip on things." +1 and if you must post this... stuff..., post it in the dungeon. There's a thread for that.
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Post by lance on Nov 7, 2012 12:01:56 GMT -8
Anyone care to guess what will happen tomorrow? To me it could go 4% up or why not another 4% down.
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Post by dougal on Nov 7, 2012 12:02:58 GMT -8
I am an investor who sometimes trades. I am not calling a bottom. Not smart enough. But I just bought back half of what I sold on September 17th. AAPL is cheap and Apple remains awesome.
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Post by dougal on Nov 7, 2012 12:03:31 GMT -8
Good to see you here, Cap. (Old guy from the old board.)
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Post by bernard on Nov 7, 2012 12:04:36 GMT -8
...this is... a lot more fun... You are a sick, demented person Bud It is rather gauche to say it is fun while others are suffering. It is askin to visiting Far Rockaway and telling the residents what fun Sandy was.
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Post by darrenhd on Nov 7, 2012 12:05:33 GMT -8
Anyone care to guess what will happen tomorrow? To me it could go 4% up or why not another 4% down. Dude, I think we would have better odds at a real casino right now than knowing what will happen tomorrow
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Post by dougal on Nov 7, 2012 12:16:00 GMT -8
Wheeles spotted in U.S. on election day
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Post by aapl4kiki on Nov 7, 2012 12:23:45 GMT -8
Futures went negative for the S&P 500, NAZ100, DOW, Russell 2000 and US$ just before it became apparent that Obama was going to win. It looked very much like the market action we saw when Greek elections rejected austerity. Fiscally, the US is out of control, thanks in no small part to policies begun in 1998, and horribly exacerbated by the Pied Piper from Chicago. I think the financial markets, with all that's going on, is saying they can't afford anymore 'hope and change'. "This board is becoming difficult to read. Some of you need to get a grip on things." +1 and if you must post this... stuff..., post it in the dungeon. There's a thread for that. "There's a thread for that." Brilliant.
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Post by lance on Nov 7, 2012 12:25:33 GMT -8
AAPL in 550's is basically pricing in a apple miss on their own EPS guidance for next quarter assuming you beilieve 10XEPS +Cash per share is the fair (cheap) aapl price.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2012 12:28:22 GMT -8
25 million volume so far
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Nov 7, 2012 12:30:44 GMT -8
You are a sick, demented person Bud It is rather gauche to say it is fun while others are suffering. It is askin to visiting Far Rockaway and telling the residents what fun Sandy was. I apologize for being imprecise. I meant that owning Apple on the whole is more fun than owning treasuries. I am not enjoying the drop, but I remember the euphoria of last April and look forward to better times for all of us. My point is that there may be some comfort in taking the long view, and giving comfort was my intent. I do apologize if that was not clear.
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Post by appledoc on Nov 7, 2012 12:30:49 GMT -8
Wheeles spotted in U.S. on election day I hope everyone laughed at this.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2012 12:33:04 GMT -8
For some perspective, here is the results from a Dec 31st 2013 share price prediction thread we had in the old AFB from the beginning of the year:
Capablanca $405.00 Mstefa $499.00 Incorrigible $509.50 Tantoday $516.00 Lovemyipad $520.00 Afterglow $525.00 Mav $540.00 Macorange $540.00 RedShirtedEnsign $544.00 JohnG $550.00 Burgess $567.00 JJJZ $584.00 Omacvi $625.00 Gregg Thurman $685.00 McharlieM $710.00 2 Cents $770.00 Average $568.09
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Post by wheeles on Nov 7, 2012 12:34:36 GMT -8
Wheeles spotted in U.S. on election day Think my vote for Ron Paul didn't make a lot of impact.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2012 12:38:53 GMT -8
AAPL in 550's is basically pricing in a apple miss on their own EPS guidance for next quarter assuming you beilieve 10XEPS +Cash per share is the fair (cheap) aapl price. I don't think is correct at all...if AAPL misses their own $11.75 guidance, it will plummet way below $500. That would be a disaster. If we don't beat last year's number, I still think we'll be in for a beating.
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Post by dougal on Nov 7, 2012 12:39:35 GMT -8
Apparently some migratory species have dual citizenship.
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Post by lance on Nov 7, 2012 12:45:31 GMT -8
No it is simple calculation AAPL will have approx. 42.EPS if they say fractionally miss their guidance of 11.75EPS. and will have around say 128 bill in cash. Therefore 10X42+128/0.94=$556. This means if you think 10XEPS +Cash per share is a bottom for the stock. A fractional miss is priced into the stock. IE this is lowest fundamentally I think it should go. Of Course it go much lower but it would be a deviation from the historic fundamentals that the stock has had for years.
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Post by prazan on Nov 7, 2012 12:47:38 GMT -8
The day after the elections four years ago, the market tanked 5%. I should have been smart enough to see this one coming. But then, Apple has more than quintupled in the four years since then, even with this price decline. I'm trying to keep my head out of the chaos of the moment, and hoping history repeats itself.
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Post by spoonman on Nov 7, 2012 12:48:25 GMT -8
did anyone pick up any Jan14 spreads today? if you look around 700 it seems pretty cheap. getting into the upper 600's not so much.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2012 12:48:32 GMT -8
No it is simple calculation AAPL will have approx. 42.EPS if they say fractionally miss their guidance of 11.75EPS. and will have around say 128 bill in cash. Therefore 10X42+128/0.94=$556. This means if you think 10XEPS +Cash per share is a bottom for the stock. A fractional miss is priced into the stock. IE this is lowest fundamentally I think it should go. Of Course it go much lower but it would be a deviation from the historic fundamentals that the stock has had for years. True, but IF (I don't think they will) AAPL slightly misses their EPS estimate of $11.75, they will be a company who is posting shrinking EPS on a year over year basis. Ask RIMM how Wall Street prices companies who post shrinking EPS. Again, not saying it will happen, but if AAPL starts shrinking, there is no way we stay around a PE of 13 (or 10 Ex-cash).
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Post by Apple II+ on Nov 7, 2012 12:54:47 GMT -8
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