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Post by neno on Nov 7, 2012 6:49:39 GMT -8
Hi, As more and more news such as this are coming, I wonder if this great group can estimate the amonut of iphones/ipads AAPL can manufacture which can be sold in Q1 2013 - Obviously demand is not the problem, so we are bound by supply. Any thoughts?
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Post by orneryjeff on Nov 7, 2012 17:54:08 GMT -8
Thoughts - Solve for the unknowns with Algebra. If Apple guides $52B they are probably at least 1 standard deviation certain that they will hit their target. For simplicity let's say that their target is 10 % higher than guidance (~$57.5B).
Last year they sold $12.7B on everything except iPads and iPhones in a 14 week quarter so we will make the target $12.5B. Let's arbitrarily set iPad target at 25M with ASP of 500 for Rev of $12.5B. Combine this and take 10% off to get $22.5B in Revs without iPhones.
Subtract $22.5B from $52B to get iPhone Revs of $29.5B. Assume ASP for iPhone is $650.
Total # of iPhones sold would be = $29.5B/$650 = ~45M
Remember that Target is 10% higher at ~50M. My guess is 40M iPhone 5s and 10M iPhone 4/4S.
Maybe this is nothing more than wishful thinking, but those are my thoughts. Also Apple guidance on EPS is bunk (21.7% after tax). When all is said and done I think they will hit between 25 to 26% (after 4% margin reduction identified in conference call).
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 7, 2012 18:16:22 GMT -8
Thoughts - Solve for the unknowns with Algebra. If Apple guides $52B they are probably at least 1 standard deviation certain that they will hit their target. For simplicity let's say that their target is 10 % higher than guidance (~$57.5B). Last year they sold $12.7B on everything except iPads and iPhones in a 14 week quarter so we will make the target $12.5B. Let's arbitrarily set iPad target at 25M with ASP of 500 for Rev of $12.5B. Combine this and take 10% off to get $22.5B in Revs without iPhones. Subtract $22.5B from $52B to get iPhone Revs of $29.5B. Assume ASP for iPhone is $650. Total # of iPhones sold would be = $29.5B/$650 = ~45M Remember that Target is 10% higher at ~50M. My guess is 40M iPhone 5s and 10M iPhone 4/4S. Maybe this is nothing more than wishful thinking, but those are my thoughts. Also Apple guidance on EPS is bunk (21.7% after tax). When all is said and done I think they will hit between 25 to 26% (after 4% margin reduction identified in conference call). So what is your WAG for EPS?
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Post by orneryjeff on Nov 8, 2012 7:02:30 GMT -8
I assume $58B (maybe higher) in revenue. Based on estimated target of 50M iPhones at $650 ASP, I calculate an iPhone Rev/Total Rev = 32.5/58 = 56.03%. I have developed an Excel regression equation/chart (data from posts at eventide) based on iPhone Rev/Total Rev to after tax profit margins for 15 quarters prior to FY Q4 2012, that yields an after tax profit margin estimate of 29%. Obviously the 4% higher margins in Apple Guidance for Q1 (and last quarter) invalidate this estimate, but we can use 29-4=25%. I think 25% is still a sandbag number, but this yields:
$58B * 0.25 = $14.5B
$14.5B / 0.948B shares = $15.30/share
I don't want to be accused of "irrational enthusiasm", but I think Apple earnings are constrained by their production capabilities rather than demand. I am ball parking iPads at 26M (8M minis), but that number could balloon to 30M. I think iMacs and notebooks could surprise to the upside. Latest estimates for smartphones worldwide are 230M to 235M in CY Q4 (Apple FY Q1 2013) and Apple sold 25% last year in CY Q4. That would predict 58M iPhones this quarter, supply being equal to demand.
I also believe the higher margin cost estimate guided by Apple may be closer to 3% due to sandbagging:
$58B * 0.26 = $15.08B
$15.08B / 0.948B shares = $15.91/share
You can make assumptions all day long. I truly believe Apple earnings will exceed guidance by 30-40% and they will not meet demand at the end of the quarter. This will lead to a very strong FY Q2.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Nov 10, 2012 8:27:45 GMT -8
Q2 may be a strange paradox. I have scenarios where Q2 EPS may exceed Q1.
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Post by orneryjeff on Nov 10, 2012 10:17:22 GMT -8
That is a real possibility if margins approach historical trends.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 10, 2012 12:22:21 GMT -8
Q2 may be a strange paradox. I have scenarios where Q2 EPS may exceed Q1. As do I. (Have for a few months)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 10, 2012 12:27:41 GMT -8
Oh yeah. Q2 being the new Q1 for fiscal 2013? Lots of us are thinking that.
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Post by renee on Nov 12, 2012 7:25:20 GMT -8
My husband was in the Apple store at the Short Hills Mall, NJ yesterday. They did not have any of the new Imacs on display and the salesperson said he hadn't sold even one of the old iMacs since the new ones had been introduced. Worrisome. Other than that, the store was crowded with customers showing a lot of interest in the ipads and minis.
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Post by qualitywte on Nov 12, 2012 16:32:48 GMT -8
My husband was in the Apple store at the Short Hills Mall, NJ yesterday. They did not have any of the new Imacs on display and the salesperson said he hadn't sold even one of the old iMacs since the new ones had been introduced. Worrisome. Other than that, the store was crowded with customers showing a lot of interest in the ipads and minis. You're talking iMacs, not MacBooks, right? I'm concerned about the gap in iMac sales too. I think it just shows how difficult the product cycle and release schedule is to manage. Hope the iMacs arrive in time to take advantage of the Christmas shopping season. I'm also hoping the Macs can continue increasing share of the PC market. Windows8 doesn't appear to be that impressive and wouldn't it be nice if Apple could grow their Mac revenue substantially over the next couple of years?
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Post by Tetrachloride on Nov 12, 2012 16:40:04 GMT -8
Q4 2012 Mac sales were 968 thousand desktops and 3955 thousand laptops.
I expect Mac sales to be 300 / 3300 for Q1 2013.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 12, 2012 16:40:56 GMT -8
3.6M? Uh...recheck the numbers?
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