coma
Member
Posts: 522
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Post by coma on Nov 8, 2012 13:30:33 GMT -8
I'm going to open a bottle of whine . . . or two.
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Post by Plato on Nov 8, 2012 13:33:42 GMT -8
I'm going to open a bottle of whine . . . or two. Was this a 'Freud's' misspell? ;D
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Nov 8, 2012 13:34:27 GMT -8
Now that might qualify as capitulation. Finally.
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Post by Plato on Nov 8, 2012 13:34:36 GMT -8
The institutions have been in accumulation mode for the last two weeks. I don't believe that to be possible. The volumes on decline we are seeing cannot be attributed to individual investors alone. They are simply too high. I agree, retail investors cannot make up for 30+ mio shares. The big boys dumped that stock badly this week.
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Post by Plato on Nov 8, 2012 13:36:10 GMT -8
Now that might qualify as capitulation. Finally. With the volume today, I agree - as for the price action today, I disagree. We need a big reversal for it to be capitulation.
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Post by fas550 on Nov 8, 2012 13:44:26 GMT -8
Well here's a theory. Given virtually no other stock on the market is going/guaranteed to make the kind of rev and margin in Jan-Apr why not tell investors its time to take profit for the year resulting in driving that pig into the ground as far as it can go then tell said investors its time to buy back given the ridiculously low price. This will result in one of the biggest gains outside of a buyout play for the first 3 months of next year. Then go to the Hamptoms early because you made your number. I will look for nails to support my hammer theory but doubt ill actually find the evidence
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 8, 2012 13:44:58 GMT -8
This is getting to the point where I might actually sell common and wait til there's a good chance at an option play. This selloff is beyond WTF. Geez.. Placed a Buy order for 300 JAN 13 $655/$675 Bull Call Spreads at 98¢. Expect them to fill tomorrow. Don't care if AAPL drops another $30.00. That's not the point. If AAPL Closes above $675 (ISM 15.30) I profit $570,000 on an investment of $30,000. I think it's a worthwhile play (risk/reward, assuming other safer positions to pay for it), but I am just all-in right now, and need to close up margin so I can pay taxes on all the common I am dumping before 12/31. Jan 13 might be the kind of dice roll Gregg likes, and I think it's an interesting gamble. But I really think there are some amazing deals on Jan 14's and Jan 15's ATM, if anyone has the stomach for anything right now.
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Post by appledoc on Nov 8, 2012 13:49:50 GMT -8
The lower we go, the easier it is to become convinced to buy. I did not expect this drop after I sold around 547. I'm interviewing, but I will hopefully be able to make a move tomorrow.
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Post by spoonman on Nov 8, 2012 13:50:05 GMT -8
This is getting to the point where I might actually sell common and wait til there's a good chance at an option play. This selloff is beyond WTF. Geez.. Placed a Buy order for 300 JAN 13 $655/$675 Bull Call Spreads at 98¢. Expect them to fill tomorrow. Don't care if AAPL drops another $30.00. That's not the point. If AAPL Closes above $675 (ISM 15.30) I profit $570,000 on an investment of $30,000. That is from watching the Institutions and ignoring EO theory. I wish i had the stones to think this way. I bought some Jan 13 as well but all really close to the money.
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Post by greedynoob on Nov 8, 2012 13:52:20 GMT -8
I wish i had the stones to think this way. I bought some Jan 13 as well but all really close to the money. Stones I've got; cash I lack
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Post by appledoc on Nov 8, 2012 13:53:00 GMT -8
I'd like to also point out that the max pain theory isn't always true. Hell, has it even held true once during this downswing? The put writers are getting their clocks cleaned. Some of us (myself included) love to bitch about how pain held us back from larger gains when we're green. That might be true sometimes, but I'd say that isn't even true most of the time. So can we drop the crying from here on out?
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 8, 2012 13:53:11 GMT -8
You guys just don't get it! There is no EO that takes pleasure in costing you money. There are only other investors trading to their own benefit. By a 70% to 30% ratio the institutions hold more shares of AAPL, than do retail accounts. The institutions have been in accumulation mode for the past couple of weeks, while the retailers are wringing their hands, and accusing some dark force of conspiring against them. Bullshit. It all comes down to fundamentals, and the institutions watch those very carefully, going so far as to meet with Apple suppliers on a regular basis to see how THEY are doing, and what they expect from the future. We don't have that ability, so we should be watching what the people that do have the ability are doing. Stop with this hand wringing nonsense and learn to read quarterlies and understand Apple's guidance. To be sure, to fully understand Apple's guidance you have to understand that Apple can, and does, miss its internal numbers. And those misses cause AAPL to sell off, not EOs (hate that concept). You can tell who doesn't have a clue by the responses that nobody knows what Apple's internal numbers are. Those are the people to avoid. This is the worst post you have ever put up. Blaming the retail investor for this sell off is amazing. Retail does not own the shares to do anything. There is no way institutions are buying. They may have bought some today, but most of the daily volume is the same shares being passed around. Gregg, now is not the time to beholding yourself up as knowing what is going on. Nobody does. AAPL is in a freefall and logic has been tossed out.
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Post by terps530 on Nov 8, 2012 13:58:16 GMT -8
/joke rant ON I figured it out. This is the gov't crushing this since they know it is owned by the most funds etc. Then they are making everyone sell for a loss and they just eating up the shares with more printed money. Then in a few months when they sell, they will say, "Thanks all investors. That was our version of increased cap gains tax. Gotcha. And then they will find a way to waste it all on some unnecessary program.
/rant OFF
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Post by mstefa on Nov 8, 2012 13:58:40 GMT -8
idea that selling now with this tax is better than selling next year with higher tax ( as feared ) , makes sense for many. If that's the case, I'd expect a pop as soon tax rules allow ( is it 21 day? ) if they buy the same stock. At the same time, just in time for Jan earnings. And at a good price too..
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 8, 2012 14:00:27 GMT -8
Well here's a theory. Given virtually no other stock on the market is going/guaranteed to make the kind of rev and margin in Jan-Apr why not tell investors its time to take profit for the year resulting in driving that pig into the ground as far as it can go then tell said investors its time to buy back given the ridiculously low price. This will result in one of the biggest gains outside of a buyout play for the first 3 months of next year. Then go to the Hamptoms early because you made your number. I will look for nails to support my hammer theory but doubt ill actually find the evidence I don't think retail has the pop to cause this damage. In the beginning - from 705 to about 610 - the drop was caused by profit taking, and by pension and mutual funds which needed to re-balance to get under the % holding requirements for their fund. The Earnings call appears to have made the selling worse, due to the lower margins and production constraints. That, in collaboration with further re-balancing selling from the funds, probably got us from 610 to about 575. Then this week, it appears to be Obama winning, and the loss of preferential tax treatment, that spooked this latest, and most accelerated, series of drops. I'm sure Terry Gau's comments, Forstall's firing, and other anti-AAPL events, helped to paint a negative of AAPL, causing others to bail.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 8, 2012 14:03:59 GMT -8
Just be careful out there. You know the saying .... just if you think it can't get worse than that .... I see 522 in the cards easily. I think that is a given now. 100% retrace. I think it is actually lower because of the dividend now.
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Post by mjuarez on Nov 8, 2012 14:05:05 GMT -8
Maybe if I just buy puts or sell a call spread, Apple will turn around. OH Wait- I have no $ left to do anything.That's me, every single day.
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Post by rickag on Nov 8, 2012 14:06:23 GMT -8
idea that selling now with this tax is better than selling next year with higher tax ( as feared ) , makes sense for many. If that's the case, I'd expect a pop as soon tax rules allow ( is it 21 day? ) if they buy the same stock. At the same time, just in time for Jan earnings. And at a good price too.. Is there a 21 day period before you can buy back in the same stock, I was under the assumption there was a time period requirement but could not find the relavent regulation?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 8, 2012 14:12:15 GMT -8
Gregg you are a wealth of knowledge and I love learning from you, but in the same sense you are making some big claims too. You've gotten smoked as much, or more, than a lot of us too by having very bullish trades on the table, so if it's so easy and simple that this is what is happening, why would you not have used that earlier? I feel like only in the past few days have you talked about 'figuring out' how the institutions trade. Knowing that would be worth instant millions. I began trading with $500 in November of 2004. My net worth today is well over $3,000,000 (post tax). In the interim I learned and changed my thinking several times. Each time getting closer to where I am today. What I espouse today is a refinement of things I began stating several months back. Specifically Investor Sentiment and Institutional Sentiment. What has changed for me as of today, is my ability to see the changes in that Sentiment real time (or very nearly so). I've laid out, it is up to the reader to agree, or disagree. But for me, the evidence is unequivocal. For the past couple of weeks the institutions have been in accumulation mode. They did not lose on the fall. To the contrary, they made money. How did they do that? Going back to the P/C ratio you can clearly see that somebody (and the biggest somebody out there are the institutions) was accumulating Puts up until Sept 21. On Sept 21 AAPL hit it ATH and began its current descent. Institutions believe in Apple's story, and the future of AAPL. LONG TERM. In the short term AAPL is going to be subject to Apple's short term performance (make or miss numbers). When, after doing their channel checks the Institutions saw that Apple was going to miss its numbers for the second consecutive quarter, they began accumulating PUTS. At the ATH they began selling shares, with AAPL dropping as a result. The drop increased the value of their PUTS such that they did not lose anything on the sell off, of which they participated. To the contrary, they used capital gained when selling at $700 to pay for shares PUT to them at $630. When AAPL hit $630 the institutions began accumulating Calls. In the numbers I've already posted, you can see the decline in Put OI interest that ended on 22 OCT. Since that date the institutions have been accruing Calls (it appears to be a mix of Jan 13 and Feb 13 Calls, I can't tell exactly because OX doesn't give me that much detail). The deal is that I do not cease learning from my mistakes, always seeking the knowledge I needed to make the last bad trade a success. It has taken time, and I ave always explained the reasoning for my beliefs. That reasoning has followed a consistent path of trying to understand, in advance of moves like this, what the institutions are doing. Like separately developed technologies, each needed to make the whole widget work, my efforts have yielded pieces of the overall picture, that now forms the whole. Each piece made my trades better, but not perfect. I will never achieve perfection BECAUSE I'm following the institutions. Now if they were to share with me what they are going to do, before they do it, I will achieve perfection. But I doubt that will ever happen.
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Post by greedynoob on Nov 8, 2012 14:14:48 GMT -8
Is there a 21 day period before you can buy back in the same stock, I was under the assumption there was a time period requirement but could not find the relavent regulation? Why would there be? Wash-sale rules are there to prevent you from realizing a loss and taking your deduction early. The gov't has no problem whatsoever with you realizing a gain and paying taxes on it early.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 8, 2012 14:15:27 GMT -8
Placed a Buy order for 300 JAN 13 $655/$675 Bull Call Spreads at 98¢. Expect them to fill tomorrow. Don't care if AAPL drops another $30.00. That's not the point. If AAPL Closes above $675 (ISM 15.30) I profit $570,000 on an investment of $30,000. If I had any money I would bet you $100 that AAPL is not over $675 in Jan. Heck, I do not believe it will be over the 655 either, but I imagine you will get an opportunity to escape at a profit. This drop has happened very fast, any climb up would take at least twice as long. Jan expiration is only 10 weeks away. I doubt that is enough time to get to 650.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 8, 2012 14:16:13 GMT -8
I chose a remarkable time for my first investments in bull call spreads. What's that burning smell? Toast, I think. I keep checking my spreadsheets to see if I'm missing something. We're lined up for solid growth next year. This is 95% fear, uncertainty, and doubt. When people stop having great experiences with Apple products my investment thesis will change. This isn't that time. What you're missing, is the very thing that institutions excel at, confirming their forecasts with visits to suppliers. They do no wait for Apple to tell them they were right, or wrong, at earnings. They are proactive, seeking out supplier data ahead of earnings. Trust but verified.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 8, 2012 14:20:26 GMT -8
Is there a 21 day period before you can buy back in the same stock, I was under the assumption there was a time period requirement but could not find the relavent regulation? Why would there be? Wash-sale rules are there to prevent you from realizing a loss and taking your deduction early. The gov't has no problem whatsoever with you realizing a gain and paying taxes on it early. Our convoluted tax code. A loss is a damn loss. It is one of those rules that makes you wonder WTF are these people thinking.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 8, 2012 14:26:07 GMT -8
Not if they were sellers starting at $705 down to $630. Then have been Call (January expiry) buyers since. Institutions lead, we can only follow. You say institutions have been buying for the last two weeks. If so, then who, besides retail, have been selling? There's only 1 other group left, and that's hedge funds and prop desks (the so-called "smart money). So it sounds like we have to wait for the last share from the last seller to be sold - true "capitulation" - before we start going north. At that point, the buyers would be smart money and more buying from institutions, augmented by retail, and jet-fueled by shorts. Concur? No such thing as the last seller. There are always sellers. 30% of outstanding shares is about 285,000,000 (retail). Some shares sell multiple times in a session, week, month. Institutions do not act in lock step, BUT more are buying than selling, much more. The problem is that retail accounts continue to supply more shares than the net that institutions are buying. You can see this phenomenon very clearly in the Selling on Strength/Buying on Weakness charts.
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Post by terps530 on Nov 8, 2012 14:27:59 GMT -8
Thanks for the thorough response. I do recall when you said the ratio was at a low or near the low (I think .71 it was and lowest ever was .64). Few questions I have are, a) How much of the P/C ratio or P/C open interest do you attribute to 'what the institutions are doing'? I'm just wondering what other sources a common investor can use to try to figure out what big money is doing, or what % that is valued out in figuring out their activity. b) Obviously it's not 1 big instituation. Do you think they all do the same thing, play follow the leader with some major one, or are they scattered but the average consensus from the institutional investors is what we are talking about? c) What is today's P/C ratio or volume because I can't seem to find a good source for it and I don't have OXpress. TIA
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Post by fas550 on Nov 8, 2012 14:30:20 GMT -8
Well here's a theory. Given virtually no other stock on the market is going/guaranteed to make the kind of rev and margin in Jan-Apr why not tell investors its time to take profit for the year resulting in driving that pig into the ground as far as it can go then tell said investors its time to buy back given the ridiculously low price. This will result in one of the biggest gains outside of a buyout play for the first 3 months of next year. Then go to the Hamptoms early because you made your number. I will look for nails to support my hammer theory but doubt ill actually find the evidence I don't think retail has the pop to cause this damage. In the beginning - from 705 to about 610 - the drop was caused by profit taking, and by pension and mutual funds which needed to re-balance to get under the % holding requirements for their fund. The Earnings call appears to have made the selling worse, due to the lower margins and production constraints. That, in collaboration with further re-balancing selling from the funds, probably got us from 610 to about 575. Then this week, it appears to be Obama winning, and the loss of preferential tax treatment, that spooked this latest, and most accelerated, series of drops. I'm sure Terry Gau's comments, Forstall's firing, and other anti-AAPL events, helped to paint a negative of AAPL, causing others to bail. I wasn't only referring to retail. Basically anyone or organization that has an advisor in some form whether that be pensions, individuals, 401k holders or other accounts. Those above with a fund e.g. Mutual that is tech concentrated, consumer discretionary etc... This may explain why other stocks in said funds are dropping too albeit to a lesser extent. Anyway just a theory
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Post by applemuncher on Nov 8, 2012 14:31:46 GMT -8
Gregg you are a wealth of knowledge and I love learning from you, but in the same sense you are making some big claims too. You've gotten smoked as much, or more, than a lot of us too by having very bullish trades on the table, so if it's so easy and simple that this is what is happening, why would you not have used that earlier? I feel like only in the past few days have you talked about 'figuring out' how the institutions trade. Knowing that would be worth instant millions. I began trading with $500 in November of 2004. My net worth today is well over $3,000,000 (post tax). In the interim I learned and changed my thinking several times. Each time getting closer to where I am today. What I espouse today is a refinement of things I began stating several months back. Specifically Investor Sentiment and Institutional Sentiment. What has changed for me as of today, is my ability to see the changes in that Sentiment real time (or very nearly so). I've laid out, it is up to the reader to agree, or disagree. But for me, the evidence is unequivocal. For the past couple of weeks the institutions have been in accumulation mode. They did not lose on the fall. To the contrary, they made money. How did they do that? Going back to the P/C ratio you can clearly see that somebody (and the biggest somebody out there are the institutions) was accumulating Puts up until Sept 21. On Sept 21 AAPL hit it ATH and began its current descent. Institutions believe in Apple's story, and the future of AAPL. LONG TERM. In the short term AAPL is going to be subject to Apple's short term performance (make or miss numbers). When, after doing their channel checks the Institutions saw that Apple was going to miss its numbers for the second consecutive quarter, they began accumulating PUTS. At the ATH they began selling shares, with AAPL dropping as a result. The drop increased the value of their PUTS such that they did not lose anything on the sell off, of which they participated. To the contrary, they used capital gained when selling at $700 to pay for shares PUT to them at $630. When AAPL hit $630 the institutions began accumulating Calls. In the numbers I've already posted, you can see the decline in Put OI interest that ended on 22 OCT. Since that date the institutions have been accruing Calls (it appears to be a mix of Jan 13 and Feb 13 Calls, I can't tell exactly because OX doesn't give me that much detail). The deal is that I do not cease learning from my mistakes, always seeking the knowledge I needed to make the last bad trade a success. It has taken time, and I ave always explained the reasoning for my beliefs. That reasoning has followed a consistent path of trying to understand, in advance of moves like this, what the institutions are doing. Like separately developed technologies, each needed to make the whole widget work, my efforts have yielded pieces of the overall picture, that now forms the whole. Each piece made my trades better, but not perfect. I will never achieve perfection BECAUSE I'm following the institutions. Now if they were to share with me what they are going to do, before they do it, I will achieve perfection. But I doubt that will ever happen. And how did the institutions make money with the calls they bought at $630?
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 8, 2012 14:32:11 GMT -8
Just an informational update, the VXAPL spiked dramatically today. Up over 4 points, 13%. WOW Sitting at 37. You know the old saying, sell premium when the VX is high. I am a goose looking for a pot to throw myself into.
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Post by magictrackpad on Nov 8, 2012 14:33:22 GMT -8
Even though Apple's products and iPhones are in high demand, I don't think that they will be able to sell as many of them that some of the estimates predict, if Foxconn is not able to produce them, and I don't think that the statement from the Foxconn CEO is particularly helpful to AAPL.
“It’s not easy to make the iPhones. We are falling short of meeting the huge demand,” Gou told reporters after a business forum this week.
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Post by bryanyc on Nov 8, 2012 14:34:17 GMT -8
Is there a 21 day period before you can buy back in the same stock, I was under the assumption there was a time period requirement but could not find the relavent regulation? Why would there be? Wash-sale rules are there to prevent you from realizing a loss and taking your deduction early. The gov't has no problem whatsoever with you realizing a gain and paying taxes on it early. In this case though it might be seen as being a little different if the tax rate is set to rise so that one could sell to declare long term gains at a lower rate, thus the attractiveness of selling now, which creates a feedback loop. Personally I am holding my long term Jan 13 400 - 500 leaps (though I sold some to buy Jan 14's recently) because I think this tax increase is overblown (perhaps 5% increase on long term gains) and I want to keep that money that I would have to pay now for investing for one more year. That is my plan at least. There is no certainty in the market and looking for hidden or "rational" systems to follow is a foolish game. You can only really hang on long term fundamentals. Even the big hedge funds and other manipulators get stomped sometimes. Good luck to the longs!
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