Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 3, 2017 3:47:28 GMT -8
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Post by rob_london on Jan 3, 2017 3:58:40 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 3, 2017 6:41:02 GMT -8
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Post by tuffett on Jan 3, 2017 8:26:32 GMT -8
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Post by rickag on Jan 3, 2017 13:11:23 GMT -8
So, who here started buying at the end of trading, thank you.
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Post by macster on Jan 3, 2017 13:25:30 GMT -8
Horace Dediu asymco tweeted 1 hour ago? : "Shopping for an Apple Watch and there’s none to be found in the stores."
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 3, 2017 14:02:49 GMT -8
Nice come back. Perhaps my belief in Santa is not in vain.
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Post by mace on Jan 3, 2017 14:11:45 GMT -8
Nice come back. Perhaps my belief in Santa is not in vain. Two days before end of Christmas celebration.
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Post by sponge on Jan 3, 2017 14:18:21 GMT -8
Horace Dediu asymco tweeted 1 hour ago? : "Shopping for an Apple Watch and there’s none to be found in the stores." I can attest. Went to South Coast Plaza store. No Apple Watches in stock and none at any other store as checked by attendant . Went ahead and ordered one online instead. We sold my wife's Apple Watch and now she is getting the Nike one. The attendant said they get a few models every day and they sell out. My view is that Apple has some serious component supply issues. Demand is there but the bigger issue is lack of product supply.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 3, 2017 14:35:50 GMT -8
Nice come back. Perhaps my belief in Santa is not in vain. Two days before end of Christmas celebration. I'm trying not to pressure him with deadlines...
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Post by mace on Jan 3, 2017 14:51:40 GMT -8
...My view is that Apple has some serious component supply issues... How come always have supply issue? They pays component suppliers too low or demand too high spec hence low yield?
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Post by tuffett on Jan 3, 2017 14:58:27 GMT -8
Horace Dediu asymco tweeted 1 hour ago? : "Shopping for an Apple Watch and there’s none to be found in the stores." I can attest. Went to South Coast Plaza store. No Apple Watches in stock and none at any other store as checked by attendant . Went ahead and ordered one online instead. We sold my wife's Apple Watch and now she is getting the Nike one. The attendant said they get a few models every day and they sell out. My view is that Apple has some serious component supply issues. Demand is there but the bigger issue is lack of product supply. Agreed. If these product stock issues were more demand driven we should see well over $80B in revenues.
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Jan 3, 2017 15:17:01 GMT -8
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Post by sponge on Jan 3, 2017 16:17:51 GMT -8
...My view is that Apple has some serious component supply issues... How come always have supply issue? They pays component suppliers too low or demand too high spec hence low yield? Don't have the answer. But when they only send 10-40 AirPods per day and half a dozen Apple Watches, that tells me they don't have the capacity to build enough. That capacity is dictated by component supply more then actually building of the units. You don't announce in September and then sell in November unless a part was not available in time. I think money can't buy parts if the supplier has its own issue. We don't know how much back up suppliers they have.
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Post by BillH on Jan 3, 2017 17:05:35 GMT -8
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Post by BillH on Jan 3, 2017 17:13:15 GMT -8
...My view is that Apple has some serious component supply issues... How come always have supply issue? They pays component suppliers too low or demand too high spec hence low yield? Sponge thinks they have supply issues. I think Tim Cook still worships at the altar of no inventory sitting unsold on the shelf in some warehouse. Did they lose sales by shortness of inventory? I bet not.
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Post by sponge on Jan 3, 2017 18:33:44 GMT -8
A part of me thinks they create their own issues and don't mind the shortages. They do lose some customers but the publicity more then makes up for it.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 3, 2017 20:23:18 GMT -8
How come always have supply issue? They pays component suppliers too low or demand too high spec hence low yield? Sponge thinks they have supply issues. I think Tim Cook still worships at the altar of no inventory sitting unsold on the shelf in some warehouse. Did they lose sales by shortness of inventory? I bet not. Of course they lose sales by not having inventory. The question is how many.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 3, 2017 20:24:47 GMT -8
If you disagree, I'd like to hear your thoughts. I think it's a very well written article that raises some important concerns. And I also agree with the optimistic tone at the end, for those who think I'm always negative.
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Post by hledgard on Jan 3, 2017 20:49:35 GMT -8
I did read the article. It is indeed insightful in a way that has not been presented on this board.
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Post by longsince98 on Jan 3, 2017 23:14:26 GMT -8
If you disagree, I'd like to hear your thoughts. I think it's a very well written article that raises some important concerns. And I also agree with the optimistic tone at the end, for those who think I'm always negative. The article is spot on. Good read. Thanks for the link.
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Post by BillH on Jan 4, 2017 4:23:43 GMT -8
If you disagree, I'd like to hear your thoughts. I think it's a very well written article that raises some important concerns. And I also agree with the optimistic tone at the end, for those who think I'm always negative. “Apple rarely missed ship dates, and rarely missed them by much.”
Apple has missed ship dates throughout it’s history and sometimes by a lot. White iPhone 4 anyone? The Mac Pro, the iMac that wouldn’t ship, the list is pretty long. I always chuckled when Steve ranted about having products ready to ship at introduction when it was the exception rather than the rule if it actually happened. The author in this instance is setting up an argument with an entirely false premise. “It used to be you bought Airports because they were some of the best WIFI devices out there. Today, the only reason to buy them is you want easy, and because it has the Apple brand. They’re woefully out of date (and in fact, I just replaced mine with a set of EERO devices, which are Apple easy to use, and blow Apple’s products away in terms of performance). Rumors have come out that Apple has cancelled future development of these, but they’re still for sale. Why?”Because the market has chosen to go with the one provided by their internet service provider. That set of EERO devices referenced above sells for close to $500.00 dollars on Amazon. I’ll probably buy the same thing myself at some point but the one I let ATT install works pretty damn well. “When they did finally update the Macs, they just updated the MacBook Pro line and left the desktops — the most out of date and badly in need of new hardware — languishing without even a comment.”They don’t comment on unannounced products. Never have. “Right now, the only real option Apple has offered these users is the iMacs, which seems to be their answer for high end machines. That may work for some, even thought it won’t be their first preference for many.”
I’m of the belief that they work for most. A very large set of most! . It won’t be the first preference for a tiny subset of the market. I like them serving that market but they’ve always behaved in a similar fashion as they lead briefly and drive down the cost curve to make it profitable over time. I’d also point out that the Final Cut Pro guys went crazy when it was discontinued for a re-boot and the introduction of its current product. Lacking in features at introduction (as usual) it was widely reported that the industry would jump ship and go back to Avid. Here’s a recent headline. “With Premiere Pro and FCPX on the Rise, Where Did Avid Go Wrong?” Admittedly I don’t know squat about the pro market nor video editing but it serves as a pretty good example of the disconnect between the doom and gloom crowd and what’s happening on the street. “Just a few examples: If Apple still takes the Mac seriously as it claims, where is HomeKit? Where is the Home app? Well, it’s over on IOS, so use your iPad (I guess).”
Or the iPhone sitting right there in your pocket. Jeez. I’m sure it’s clear by now that I’m no Macalope. I’m too lazy to research more specifics and too forgetful to cite them offhand but it seems to me that it’s the same old (and wondrous in some regards) Apple. Best in show laptops, the only wearables that sell in quantities, ditched legacy, new stuff on the way. This article strikes me as the product that’s really old and long in the tooth as I’ve been reading the same drivel for years. Is it wrong? Not entirely. Is it misguided? You bet.
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Post by incorrigible on Jan 4, 2017 5:41:17 GMT -8
Sponge thinks they have supply issues. I think Tim Cook still worships at the altar of no inventory sitting unsold on the shelf in some warehouse. Did they lose sales by shortness of inventory? I bet not. Of course they lose sales by not having inventory. The question is how many. Being able to sell every widget you can make is a good problem to have. IMO
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Post by tuffett on Jan 4, 2017 7:56:41 GMT -8
Of course they lose sales by not having inventory. The question is how many. Being able to sell every widget you can make is a good problem to have. IMO I disagree. Though there is a certain amount of marketing buzz created by having sold out product, lost sales are not a good thing. Apple is no longer at the stage where they can throw away sales. They are struggling to achieve low single digit growth - that's not a company who should be happy that they can't supply product for months. As an extreme example, if Apple could only make 10M iPhones next quarter, they should be happy that they sell out?
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Post by david on Jan 4, 2017 9:13:44 GMT -8
Being able to sell every widget you can make is a good problem to have. IMO I disagree. Though there is a certain amount of marketing buzz created by having sold out product, lost sales are not a good thing. Apple is no longer at the stage where they can throw away sales. They are struggling to achieve low single digit growth - that's not a company who should be happy that they can't supply product for months. As an extreme example, if Apple could only make 10M iPhones next quarter, they should be happy that they sell out? We can agree that Apple is manufacturing at 100% of capacity. A manufacturer will tell you production can be increased by 20% at this point. Foxconn will probably want an extra 40% per unit and component costs will increase by 20% per unit, though. Gross margin is thereby reduced by 50%. Sure don't know why Cook is paid so much for such obvious decisions. (/s)
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Post by tuffett on Jan 4, 2017 13:00:21 GMT -8
I disagree. Though there is a certain amount of marketing buzz created by having sold out product, lost sales are not a good thing. Apple is no longer at the stage where they can throw away sales. They are struggling to achieve low single digit growth - that's not a company who should be happy that they can't supply product for months. As an extreme example, if Apple could only make 10M iPhones next quarter, they should be happy that they sell out? We can agree that Apple is manufacturing at 100% of capacity. A manufacturer will tell you production can be increased by 20% at this point. Foxconn will probably want an extra 40% per unit and component costs will increase by 20% per unit, though. Gross margin is thereby reduced by 50%. Sure don't know why Cook is paid so much for such obvious decisions. (/s) So basically forward growth will hover around zero due to manufacturing constraints? Give me a break. By the way, the more you produce the less the cost per unit. Basic economics. If Apple is selling product with 6 week delays (after taking ages to refresh in the first place) it means their product is not ready for mass manufacture and they need to think about the consequences. There are some obvious issues here.
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Post by david on Jan 4, 2017 13:36:18 GMT -8
We can agree that Apple is manufacturing at 100% of capacity. A manufacturer will tell you production can be increased by 20% at this point. Foxconn will probably want an extra 40% per unit and component costs will increase by 20% per unit, though. Gross margin is thereby reduced by 50%. Sure don't know why Cook is paid so much for such obvious decisions. (/s) So basically forward growth will hover around zero due to manufacturing constraints? Give me a break. By the way, the more you produce the less the cost per unit. Basic economics. If Apple is selling product with 6 week delays (after taking ages to refresh in the first place) it means their product is not ready for mass manufacture and they need to think about the consequences. There are some obvious issues here. A company builds a factory for a billion dollars. They then run production up to 100% of capacity. This means 40 hour weeks, careful planning of logistics. Increasing production by 20% right now requires 60 hour weeks and pressuring your suppliers, shipping any way you can etc. Basic economics. Want to increase production and not increase costs? Build another billion dollar factory. Spend a lot of money on automation, reducing labor costs. Takes a year or four. Basic economics. Not gonna be ready for this month's holiday season. Tuffett, have you ever worked for someone who builds things? (manufacturers). Taken an economics course?
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Post by tuffett on Jan 4, 2017 13:45:19 GMT -8
So basically forward growth will hover around zero due to manufacturing constraints? Give me a break. By the way, the more you produce the less the cost per unit. Basic economics. If Apple is selling product with 6 week delays (after taking ages to refresh in the first place) it means their product is not ready for mass manufacture and they need to think about the consequences. There are some obvious issues here. A company builds a factory for a billion dollars. They then run production up to 100% of capacity. This means 40 hour weeks, careful planning of logistics. Increasing production by 20% right now requires 60 hour weeks and pressuring your suppliers, shipping any way you can etc. Basic economics. Want to increase production and not increase costs? Build another billion dollar factory. Spend a lot of money on automation, reducing labor costs. Takes a year or four. Basic economics. Not gonna be ready for this month's holiday season. Tuffett, have you ever worked for someone who builds things? (manufacturers). Taken an economics course? If Apple only spec'd their production to current levels then they have an even more serious problem than manufacturing issues. There are two issues here: 1) Problems with manufacturing (low yields etc.). Clearly evident with the Airpods 2) Apple can no longer accurately forecast demand for their products - both on the high side (iPhone 7 Plus, iPhone SE) and the low side (iPhone 6s) Please don't respond with the fact that Apple has met their own guidance. This is true, but there was obvious channel fill in Q1 2016 to counteract low iPhone sales. This was confirmed with the extremely weak guidance for Q2. Yes to both of your questions. If you've worked in manufacturing you'd know that it takes time for a plant to get to 100% capacity, and low yields with max capacity leads to low volume of end product. These are clearly things that Apple is having problems with. The bottom line is that a company of their size should ensure they have enough product to sell. That is a essential business principle.
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Post by rickag on Jan 4, 2017 15:00:44 GMT -8
Seasonal business is a big problem.
They could begin production far ahead of demand to build inventory, but that carries risk and high inventory costs. They could force plants to run 24/7 that burdens the plant, worker, equipment and leaves the plant a skeleton crews for much of the year. They could try and balance all these.
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