Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 4, 2017 3:28:12 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 4, 2017 4:43:02 GMT -8
Am I the only one who thinks that AAPL is missing the boat on the smart home? And does it matter? Just looking at what might be presented over the week at CES and not hearing anything from AAPL on this topic (not at CES but in general). And doesn't much of it start from the TV? Doesn't seem to be any strides there as well ... feeling like Eeyore this morning I guess.
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Post by BillH on Jan 4, 2017 4:54:26 GMT -8
Am I the only one who thinks that AAPL is missing the boat on the smart home? And does it matter? Just looking at what might be presented over the week at CES and not hearing anything from AAPL on this topic (not at CES but in general). And doesn't much of it start from the TV? Doesn't seem to be any strides there as well ... feeling like Eeyore this morning I guess. You're not the only one thinking Apple has missed the boat on the smart home. I see similar thoughts regularly. I think the boat's still tied to the dock. Time will tell if all the iPhone owners out there will win the day with their Apple preference. I also wonder if it's nothing more than a dingy tied to the dock. Apple doesn't exhibit at CES as I'm sure you know well. Hasn't seemed to hurt them even a little.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 4, 2017 5:01:18 GMT -8
Am I the only one who thinks that AAPL is missing the boat on the smart home? And does it matter? Just looking at what might be presented over the week at CES and not hearing anything from AAPL on this topic (not at CES but in general). And doesn't much of it start from the TV? Doesn't seem to be any strides there as well ... feeling like Eeyore this morning I guess. You're not the only one thinking Apple has missed the boat on the smart home. I see similar thoughts regularly. I think the boat's still tied to the dock. Time will tell if all the iPhone owners out there will win the day with their Apple preference. I also wonder if it's nothing more than a dingy tied to the dock. Apple doesn't exhibit at CES as I'm sure you know well. Hasn't seemed to hurt them even a little. Yep - you are correct - I'm aware that they don't exhibit at CES but the event this week is just a stark reminder. I'm a huge fan of the smart home...just wondering our (AAPL) in all of this as well as the TV - feels like both are going nowhere fast. Of course, I haven't a clue what is going on behind closed doors but I'm not feeling the love right now.
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Post by gtrplyr on Jan 4, 2017 7:30:34 GMT -8
I posted something about this subject about 3-4 weeks ago. We just finished building a new home and of course I wanted it to be a "smart" home. We ended up going with Control 4 for the automation brain and have various products that tie into the system from : Nest (thermostat), Rachio (irrigation timer), Kwikset (door locks), Chamberlin (garage door), Hikvision (security cams) ... and a few other items. I was very much wanting to do an Apple friendly home but no luck. For TV content I have : Netflix, Hulu plus and Sling .... lots of issues as I wish there was 1 streaming service I could pay for to manage content and it could have been Apple.
No doubt about it ... they have dropped the ball. Considering Apple TV was around several years ago and could have been the industry standard by now.
The next thing I'm looking at is Amazon Alexa as that interfaces with my control 4 system and I can just ask Alexa to: Turn off or on lights, turn on the tv, fireplace, unlock the door, start watering the yard, open the garage door ... etc ... no Apple equivalent as of yet. Smart homes are going to be a big deal .... I'm already loving what I can do and we are far from finished setting up the system.
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Post by mrentropy on Jan 4, 2017 7:46:56 GMT -8
TSLA: we missed our shipment estimates. Again. Like always. But we have a really good excuse again! Market: well, at least your are consistent, here is a 3% gain in your stock price!
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Post by gtrplyr on Jan 4, 2017 7:52:31 GMT -8
Works for me
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Post by tuffett on Jan 4, 2017 7:57:44 GMT -8
TSLA: we missed our shipment estimates. Again. Like always. But we have a really good excuse again! Market: well, at least your are consistent, here is a 3% gain in your stock price! I learned the hard way that looking at how well the market treats other companies and being upset about it does nothing. Might as well use the knowledge to your advantage. This is why I'm far more diversified these days instead of being practically all in on AAPL. I believe AAPL has excellent fundamentals but it could be a long haul before the stock price reflects that. Might as well hop on the AMZN/TSLA train with part of my portfolio while I wait.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 4, 2017 8:06:01 GMT -8
I posted something about this subject about 3-4 weeks ago. We just finished building a new home and of course I wanted it to be a "smart" home. We ended up going with Control 4 for the automation brain and have various products that tie into the system from : Nest (thermostat), Rachio (irrigation timer), Kwikset (door locks), Chamberlin (garage door), Hikvision (security cams) ... and a few other items. I was very much wanting to do an Apple friendly home but no luck. For TV content I have : Netflix, Hulu plus and Sling .... lots of issues as I wish there was 1 streaming service I could pay for to manage content and it could have been Apple. No doubt about it ... they have dropped the ball. Considering Apple TV was around several years ago and could have been the industry standard by now. The next thing I'm looking at is Amazon Alexa as that interfaces with my control 4 system and I can just ask Alexa to: Turn off or on lights, turn on the tv, fireplace, unlock the door, start watering the yard, open the garage door ... etc ... no Apple equivalent as of yet. Smart homes are going to be a big deal .... I'm already loving what I can do and we are far from finished setting up the system. Agreed. Things are moving way too fast for Apple to playing coy and talking about "pulling strings" and calling things "hobbies". Amazon now dominates the tech news cycle. They've gone from a simple online retailer to the leading player in the battle for the smart home, and so much more. There is a ton of innovation coming from Amazon - some crazy ideas but also some really good ones. They've really turned things around since the Fire phone debacle. Apple had the tools to take the home entertainment and smart home spaces but they languished for far too long.
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Post by mace on Jan 4, 2017 8:11:40 GMT -8
...Might as well hop on the AMZN/TSLA train with part of my portfolio while I wait. Wrong choice. Should have hopped on to NVDA.
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Post by mace on Jan 4, 2017 8:16:12 GMT -8
Am I the only one who thinks that AAPL is missing the boat on the smart home? You're not the only one thinking Apple has missed the boat on the smart home. I see similar thoughts regularly. I think the boat's still tied to the dock. Didn't Tony Fadell lure all those engineers to Nest? No man onboard the Apple boat.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 4, 2017 8:16:32 GMT -8
...Might as well hop on the AMZN/TSLA train with part of my portfolio while I wait. Wrong choice. Should have hopped on to NVDA. In hindsight, that too. But I'm really happy with TSLA so far, up 20% in a month.
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Post by deasys on Jan 4, 2017 8:54:01 GMT -8
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Post by gtrplyr on Jan 4, 2017 9:39:08 GMT -8
TSLA reminds me of how AAPL was acting about 5 years ago .... it seemed unstoppable .
I've got no blinders on with regards to TSLA .... it's valuation defies it's business at the moment but potential is enormous in that department. What happened to cell phones over the last 15 years is about to happen to vehicles .
Gas powered self driving models are on their deathbed and the morons at most big auto companies can't or won't accept that fact. Elon/Tesla are going to destroy the way we even buy a car ....
I'm on board. The day I test drove a model s and used the auto pilot (self driving assist .. whatever the hell you want to call it) I bought stock right away. I've had several conversations with older people who look at you like you are talking about the next century but they are going to be amazed with what the next 10 years brings. I'm hoping that in 5 I'll never have to drive again. Yes ... maybe a little aggressive but as this shift happens it will pick up steam.
Apple should buy TSLA or try to partner with them. Apple is so far behind I don't think that starting from scratch is a good idea ..... just partner with ELON ! TSLA needs money and manufacturing expertise, Apple has both. Instead of giving money to Dr. Dre and Iovine who haven't done a damn thing they could have at the very least spent the 3 billion on TSLA stock ! We would be better off.
I really think Tim is a great guy but I don't think he has a real vision for the future. Sorry ... hate to say it but it seems to be true as Apple is getting out performed on so many different fronts ... Content, Cloud, AI ..... if it wasn't for the iPhone Apple would be in a world of hurt right now.
I'm hanging on to most of my shares ... still have a lot left but if we get a nice bump with a tax holiday I'm going to sell most of it. It seems like it's time to move on. Really sad for me to say as AAPL has changed my life .... I've been a shareholder since 2002-2003 and for a long period we were 100% invested ... everything.
Maybe they will surprise me ..... I'm hoping.
Cheers to the longs.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Jan 4, 2017 9:51:13 GMT -8
TSLA: we missed our shipment estimates. Again. Like always. But we have a really good excuse again! Market: well, at least your are consistent, here is a 3% gain in your stock price! Isn't Tesla stock kind of flat on the year (2016)? I'm pretty sure that if this were a Tesla board, we'd be complaining about that bitterly.
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Post by mikez on Jan 4, 2017 9:55:12 GMT -8
TSLA: we missed our shipment estimates. Again. Like always. But we have a really good excuse again! Market: well, at least your are consistent, here is a 3% gain in your stock price! Isn't Tesla stock kind of flat on the year (2016)? I'm pretty sure that if this were a Tesla board, we'd be complaining about that bitterly. HAHA! Probaly.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 4, 2017 9:56:50 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 4, 2017 10:23:00 GMT -8
Apple Confirms $1 Billion Investment in SoftBank Vision Fund Apple says fund will support ‘strategically important technologies’
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Post by mrentropy on Jan 4, 2017 10:42:24 GMT -8
TSLA: we missed our shipment estimates. Again. Like always. But we have a really good excuse again! Market: well, at least your are consistent, here is a 3% gain in your stock price! I learned the hard way that looking at how well the market treats other companies and being upset about it does nothing. Might as well use the knowledge to your advantage. This is why I'm far more diversified these days instead of being practically all in on AAPL. I believe AAPL has excellent fundamentals but it could be a long haul before the stock price reflects that. Might as well hop on the AMZN/TSLA train with part of my portfolio while I wait. I don't disagree with the "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em" mantra. I've played AMZN options successfully this year. My issue with TSLA is the underlying business and the fact that I view the stock as effectively a Ponzi scheme at the moment. That's not to say it can't and won't go up, it obviously does. But at some point reality will hit and it can correct quickly and savagely (look at Valeant.) My issue with the stock is that TSLA is perpetually about to run out of capital. It has 2-3 quarters of money to keep it going. It is locked out of the equity markets, no one is lending them money (because they see the return on investment is not attractive and they carry a LOT of debt.) Their only method for raising capital is dilutive stock offerings. This is why you see Elon pumping the stock up. He has to. It is his only source of equity to keep the company growing, or even operating. Tesla loses money, a lot of it. They "made" money last quarter though some non GAAP engineering. If you look at the spike in sales the last month of the quarter and ensuing drop off the following month, it definitely looks engineered. That aren't making money and I don't see how they make enough money to cover operations and expansion in the near term. Something has to give. Unlike Amazon, they can't simply chose to start realizing profit at the expense of growth, they simply can't generate the profit. They are also very expensive from a valuation standpoint so it seems unlikely they will be acquired at these levels. So although the ride is good now, I do think that will end, the question is when and how fast. Personally, I think it is too risky for me to get involved at this late of a stage, even if it sees a higher valuation for a period going forward. I'm not trying to take away from the company. They have achieved an amazing things with a great product. I just think the stock valuation has far to much in the risk department for me and I know I'm not nimble enough to get out when it corrects. My opinion, for what it is worth. -Entropy
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Post by incorrigible on Jan 4, 2017 11:04:27 GMT -8
I'm on board. The day I test drove a model s and used the auto pilot (self driving assist .. whatever the hell you want to call it) I bought stock right away. I've had several conversations with older people who look at you like you are talking about the next century but they are going to be amazed with what the next 10 years brings. I'm hoping that in 5 I'll never have to drive again. Yes ... maybe a little aggressive but as this shift happens it will pick up steam. Wait until the first few deaths as a result of self-driving cars. Who do you sue? I don't buy it. Literally. Made a few bucks on TSLA a year or two back. Too risky for me now in my advancing years. Valuation is worse than AMZN. It is a fun ride though.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 4, 2017 12:55:57 GMT -8
Concerning that AAPL isn't taking part in this rally. Would like to see a pre-earnings run...
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Post by sponge on Jan 4, 2017 13:42:33 GMT -8
The guidance for Q1 was disappointing. I have a feeling that no matter what numbers they report, if guidance is weak again then We will stay in the 105-118 range thru April. 200 MA is our line in the sand.
The 10% cut was confirmation for me that things are not as rosy with the iPhone 7 like we saw in Sept. A new iPhone SE, iPad, and iMac, will get us going next quarter along with sold Apple Watch and AirPod sales. But earnings is th key for the next 6 months.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 4, 2017 13:59:11 GMT -8
The guidance for Q1 was disappointing. I have a feeling that no matter what numbers they report, if guidance is weak again then We will stay in the 105-118 range thru April. 200 MA is our line in the sand. The 10% cut was confirmation for me that things are not as rosy with the iPhone 7 like we saw in Sept. A new iPhone SE, iPad, and iMac, will get us going next quarter along with sold Apple Watch and AirPod sales. But earnings is th key for the next 6 months. I agree. This quarter's results will likely confirm that growth has slowed dramatically. Some people have been using the excuse that the iPhone 6 was an outlier and made 2016 look worse, and if you normalize over two years then iPhone growth would be strong and steady. Well, this quarter will put an end to that theory unless they sell somewhere on the order of 85M iPhones. Q2 guidance needs to show healthy growth, considering how awful the year ago compare was. I fear will Apple will once again misread the market and not update the iPhone SE. This would be a huge mistake, as it's pretty much been confirmed there is a healthy demand for current tech in a small form factor. It doesn't have to be a massive update - perhaps additional memory and the addition of Force Touch.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Jan 5, 2017 3:16:45 GMT -8
Must admit when I look at the supply constraints (consumer demand) versus the guidance, I have to wonder which is running the show.
I'm sympathetic to the challenges of getting production right... and the pitfalls of getting it wrong but where are the contingencies?
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Jan 5, 2017 15:06:52 GMT -8
I'm on board. The day I test drove a model s and used the auto pilot (self driving assist .. whatever the hell you want to call it) I bought stock right away. I've had several conversations with older people who look at you like you are talking about the next century but they are going to be amazed with what the next 10 years brings. I'm hoping that in 5 I'll never have to drive again. Yes ... maybe a little aggressive but as this shift happens it will pick up steam. Wait until the first few deaths as a result of self-driving cars. Who do you sue? I don't buy it. Literally. Did a few deaths from GM cars put them out of business?
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