Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Jan 6, 2017 4:05:13 GMT -8
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Post by rickag on Jan 6, 2017 4:31:09 GMT -8
I am not sure what India has in mind. Didn't Apple basically agree to open an assembly plant inside India? This would seem to be a great opportunity for India to increase job growth over time but by stifeling Apple it may end up only an assembly plant gets built and Apple is forced to export most of the phones. Maybe I am completely misunderstanding the whole mess that is India.
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Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Jan 6, 2017 7:17:23 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 6, 2017 7:25:08 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 6, 2017 7:28:44 GMT -8
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Post by rickag on Jan 6, 2017 7:38:24 GMT -8
I don't believe he is motivated by money. It is curious that the CEO of the largest corporation makes less than a good not great reliever in major league baseball.
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Post by ericinaustin on Jan 6, 2017 8:11:32 GMT -8
Have been lurking regularly but haven't been posting since the election ( Im just making the transition from bargaining to depression in the Kubler-Ross grief model) but the coming battle with China has me quite worried . Apple will be esp. vulnerable to a trade war or dispute depending how hot it gets. China will likely use threats to apples business as a bargaining chip. Haven't sold any of my position but have considered a modest hedge to protect the down side if all hell breaks loose. Anyone else thinking a long term hedge till this settles out?
Eric in Austin
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Post by rickag on Jan 6, 2017 8:25:01 GMT -8
Have been lurking regularly but haven't been posting since the election ( Im just making the transition from bargaining to depression in the Kubler-Ross grief model) but the coming battle with China has me quite worried . Apple will be esp. vulnerable to a trade war or dispute depending how hot it gets. China will likely use threats to apples business as a bargaining chip. Haven't sold any of my position but have considered a modest hedge to protect the down side if all hell breaks loose. Anyone else thinking a long term hedge till this settles out? Eric in Austin By hedge do. you mean buying puts? I am keeping the option of selling open which in the past I wouldn't consider.
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Post by sponge on Jan 6, 2017 8:55:29 GMT -8
Have been lurking regularly but haven't been posting since the election ( Im just making the transition from bargaining to depression in the Kubler-Ross grief model) but the coming battle with China has me quite worried . Apple will be esp. vulnerable to a trade war or dispute depending how hot it gets. China will likely use threats to apples business as a bargaining chip. Haven't sold any of my position but have considered a modest hedge to protect the down side if all hell breaks loose. Anyone else thinking a long term hedge till this settles out? Eric in Austin My concern as well. I recall Ichan getting out for that reason prior to election. Time will tell, but in the bigger picture Apple just needs to transition more of its manufacturing away from China. I did get out of my putts for a loss. This mini rally from 114 may have some legs and we are less likely to see 112 or lower in the next two weeks.
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Post by ericinaustin on Jan 6, 2017 8:58:46 GMT -8
Been thinking of a put that would perhaps limit 30 to 50% down side to only 10 to 20% but just not sure how to structure it. I could just sell some but then would have the taxes to pay. Still think apple is a cheap stock. Normally would feel that during a big Market correction apple would hold up better than the market in general because of its current price and dividend but if the US and China get into a pissing match Apple could really get hammered.
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Post by sponge on Jan 6, 2017 9:09:02 GMT -8
I do not agree with JM numbers regarding services growth. He sees flat revenue growth for hardware. So he comes up with 30% services in 5 years. He changed his target based on one day of App Store sales.
I think the iPhone iPad Mac Apple Watch AirPods and other devices still have legs to grow in the future. My 5% revenue growth is conservative for the next 7 years.
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Post by sponge on Jan 6, 2017 9:12:30 GMT -8
My concerns with China have more to do with iPhone sales there. I know TC is bullish long term, but if we get into a trade war, their economy will suffer more then ours. I am talking the next 6 years.
The stock may react to the downside at any time in those years. So buying puts based on that seems much too early.
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Post by Apple II+ on Jan 6, 2017 10:05:26 GMT -8
... China ... if all hell breaks loose. Anyone else thinking a long term hedge till this settles out? Eric in Austin All hell breaking loose could be an opportunity. I've been selling puts for a while. That's been my hedge of sorts for continued under-pricing of AAPL. If China trade war leads to AAPL tanking, I'll consider selling more puts, likely buy more shares (I may be forced to), and possibly buy calls.
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Post by incorrigible on Jan 6, 2017 10:43:16 GMT -8
... China ... if all hell breaks loose. Anyone else thinking a long term hedge till this settles out? Eric in Austin All hell breaking loose could be an opportunity. I've been selling puts for a while. That's been my hedge of sorts for continued under-pricing of AAPL. If China trade war leads to AAPL tanking, I'll consider selling more puts, likely buy more shares (I may be forced to), and possibly buy calls. Selling cash covered puts or via margin? Just curious as I thought about the same for some other stocks.
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Post by Apple II+ on Jan 6, 2017 11:03:02 GMT -8
margin
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Post by tuffett on Jan 6, 2017 11:33:37 GMT -8
I do not agree with JM numbers regarding services growth. He sees flat revenue growth for hardware. So he comes up with 30% services in 5 years. He changed his target based on one day of App Store sales. I think the iPhone iPad Mac Apple Watch AirPods and other devices still have legs to grow in the future. My 5% revenue growth is conservative for the next 7 years. I don't think 5% growth is conservative at these levels unless a major new product is launched. I'd be very happy to see 5% yearly growth. I have a feeling we'll get it this year but will struggle after with another tough compare.
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Post by incorrigible on Jan 6, 2017 14:07:57 GMT -8
Thanks. One more question: Do you pay interest on the margin balance or are the margin fund "locked up"? Forgive my ignorance but I'm considering this option and am trying to learn.
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Post by mace on Jan 6, 2017 14:27:52 GMT -8
Selling puts on margin is very risky. If price continues to decline, losses pile up quickly. Sell puts only if you feel very bullish.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,427
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Post by chinacat on Jan 6, 2017 14:48:07 GMT -8
I interpreted the article slightly differently than you did, Since84. I think that the CNBC headline was deceptively phrased to make it seem like the reduction in pay was some kind of retribution against Tim by the BoD. - "Cook's annual salary went up by $1 million" - "Company executives received about 89.5 percent of their targeted annual incentives."
Now, I am not saying the the Board was entirely pleased by the year's results, but
- I would bet that the whole executive team feels that the results did not match what they were hoping for - It is not clear that Tim's compensation was affected more or less than any other member of the executive team
I am quite sure, however, that expectations for the fiscal year of the 10th anniversary iPhone are pretty high, so I'll bet no one on the board or executive team will be planning to rest on their laurels.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 6, 2017 16:49:46 GMT -8
I interpreted the article slightly differently than you did, Since84. I think that the CNBC headline was deceptively phrased to make it seem like the reduction in pay was some kind of retribution against Tim by the BoD. Exactly, Trolltastic. The headline could have been, "Tim Cook gets 89.5% of his bonus." In sports, who thinks of a not making an incentive bonus a pay cut? These numbers are automatic. Not like the board independently voted to cut his pay.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Jan 6, 2017 16:54:16 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,427
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Post by chinacat on Jan 6, 2017 17:22:15 GMT -8
I interpreted the article slightly differently than you did, Since84. I think that the CNBC headline was deceptively phrased to make it seem like the reduction in pay was some kind of retribution against Tim by the BoD. Exactly, Trolltastic. The headline could have been, "Tim Cook gets 89.5% of his bonus." In sports, who thinks of a not making an incentive bonus a pay cut? These numbers are automatic. Not like the board independently voted to cut his pay. See now, THIS is the beauty of AFB, where a Massachusetts pinko Hillary supporter and a Southern California Bircher Trump supporter can find common ground! (no offense, JD!)
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Post by BillH on Jan 6, 2017 20:56:19 GMT -8
Exactly, Trolltastic. The headline could have been, "Tim Cook gets 89.5% of his bonus." In sports, who thinks of a not making an incentive bonus a pay cut? These numbers are automatic. Not like the board independently voted to cut his pay. See now, THIS is the beauty of AFB, where a Massachusetts pinko Hillary supporter and a Southern California Bircher Trump supporter can find common ground! (no offense, JD!) Warms my heart. . Reminds me of this. www.youtube.com/watch?v=ecCOqbkwhkA
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Post by Apple II+ on Jan 6, 2017 21:26:00 GMT -8
Thanks. One more question: Do you pay interest on the margin balance or are the margin fund "locked up"? Forgive my ignorance but I'm considering this option and am trying to learn. When you short puts, it does tie up your buying power, but it doesn't increase the margin balance at that point. Actually it adds cash, and is a way to leverage available margin without paying interest, unless and until you are assigned. For example, in 2014 I sold Jan 2017 puts with $80, $90, and $100 strikes. Those are set to expire this month. If AAPL is below $100, $90, or $80 at that time, then I'll be forced to buy shares at those prices, and since I don't have enough cash, it would be on margin. At that point I would have to pay interest on that margin balance.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 7, 2017 4:22:39 GMT -8
Exactly, Trolltastic. The headline could have been, "Tim Cook gets 89.5% of his bonus." In sports, who thinks of a not making an incentive bonus a pay cut? These numbers are automatic. Not like the board independently voted to cut his pay. See now, THIS is the beauty of AFB, where a Massachusetts pinko Hillary supporter and a Southern California Bircher Trump supporter can find common ground! (no offense, JD!) Glad I could bring you two together.
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Post by Apple II+ on Jan 7, 2017 8:12:12 GMT -8
I interpreted the article slightly differently than you did, Since84. I think that the CNBC headline was deceptively phrased to make it seem like the reduction in pay was some kind of retribution against Tim by the BoD. - "Cook's annual salary went up by $1 million" - "Company executives received about 89.5 percent of their targeted annual incentives."
Now, I am not saying the the Board was entirely pleased by the year's results, but
- I would bet that the whole executive team feels that the results did not match what they were hoping for - It is not clear that Tim's compensation was affected more or less than any other member of the executive team
I am quite sure, however, that expectations for the fiscal year of the 10th anniversary iPhone are pretty high, so I'll bet no one on the board or executive team will be planning to rest on their laurels.The article only looks at executive cash compensation, but most of their compensation is in stock. Cook received $8.75 million in cash in 2016. $136 million of his 2011 stock award vested in 2016, and 280,000 shares of that were the maximum amount for performance based on Total Shareholder Return (TSR). Since Apple has started giving executives performance-based stock dependent on TSR, Cook has always gotten the maximum and other executives have gotten well above the target and often the maximum. Another way of putting it is that, according the Board of Directors' goal post for Total Shareholder Return, Apple shareholders are doing great!
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Post by incorrigible on Jan 7, 2017 8:18:10 GMT -8
Thanks. One more question: Do you pay interest on the margin balance or are the margin fund "locked up"? Forgive my ignorance but I'm considering this option and am trying to learn. When you short puts, it does tie up your buying power, but it doesn't increase the margin balance at that point. Actually it adds cash, and is a way to leverage available margin without paying interest, unless and until you are assigned. For example, in 2014 I sold Jan 2017 puts with $80, $90, and $100 strikes. Those are set to expire this month. If AAPL is below $100, $90, or $80 at that time, then I'll be forced to buy shares at those prices, and since I don't have enough cash, it would be on margin. At that point I would have to pay interest on that margin balance. Thanks for the great explanation! Much appreciated.
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Post by Apple II+ on Jan 7, 2017 8:43:08 GMT -8
Selling puts on margin is very risky. If price continues to decline, losses pile up quickly. Sell puts only if you feel very bullish. I don't know about "very" bullish. It's not like buying calls. Shorting a put is similar to a covered call.
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Post by gtrplyr on Jan 7, 2017 9:12:21 GMT -8
Would love to watch this but CNBC's website sucks. Is it just me ?? I can't get the video to play ... it shuffles through several and starts some other topic , when I actually click on the video I want it won't play ... it's done this to me a lot. Maybe it's my browser ?? ARGHHH
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Post by sponge on Jan 7, 2017 10:31:27 GMT -8
Don't mean to be a downer but we heard the same message last year about the iPhone 7. People upgrade every two years, was the logic. Yet guidance with extra week gave us about 4% growth in iPhones. The bottom line is that Apple is growing their base and yoy comparison is no longer a good metric. For me until we enter the 7th year of the Apple Watch and 3rd year of the Apple Car, we won't see double digit revenue growth. By the way some of the new TVs at CES are pretty amazing. I still think Apple needs to come out with one.
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