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Post by rickag on Nov 13, 2012 7:10:54 GMT -8
Today would be a good day for the team in green to pitch a no hitter and hit a couple of grand slams. Go green.
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Post by Big Al on Nov 13, 2012 7:11:29 GMT -8
Thought that this is the beginning of a run, leaving the lows behind for a while. Might simply be a return to VWAP so it can be sold into. I never called a bottom, so I thought that it might be good luck to try it this time
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 13, 2012 7:12:34 GMT -8
DOW has had a nice reversal this morning. Market needs to get stronger. I will take up anytime.
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Post by mstefa on Nov 13, 2012 7:20:44 GMT -8
For those of you following the MSFT Windows 8 and surface launch. Steve B says sales are "modest" (hardly a term one can link to an answer that requires a numerical symbol). Best guess is MSFT at most would sell 3.5M tablets this qtr but a few have dropped their estimates after some tersely checks since launch to 1.5m. I will go out on a limb here and say there may not be any competition to fear from the juggernaut of the PC universe. Oh and BTW the head of the software unit was just asked to leave. Also read the following and perhaps like myself you can only imagine the fallout if Apple had this with an IOS/OS launch: "An even smaller number of users, once they had actually received the tablet, complained that the Touch Cover started to split and come away from the material that binds the touch-technology together. But just over a fortnight after the Surface went on sale and Windows 8 was launched, primed and ready to be used on desktop and laptops all over the world, Microsoft issued its latest Patch Tuesday advisory notice, warning that Windows 8 had three "critical" security vulnerabilities while the Surface RT device had one critical security flaw." if Balmer said modest .. there's no way they sell millions. That would be called success. in my eyes that means DOA and we'll lose money on it 4 years until it sticks somewhat.
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Post by stevereel on Nov 13, 2012 7:21:35 GMT -8
Green is good, but volume is average to low. Maybe sideways basing for a while. Still better than more free fall!
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Post by rickag on Nov 13, 2012 7:25:55 GMT -8
It's only the 2nd inning and the green team has their middle reliever up and warming up. The red team has a runner at second, need to pick him off.
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Nov 13, 2012 7:26:46 GMT -8
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 13, 2012 7:26:48 GMT -8
Would love a push through 550 with a little volume behind it....
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Post by fas550 on Nov 13, 2012 7:31:50 GMT -8
Interesting observation and theory. The facts on the options are quite intriguing although institutional ownership is quite low when compared to norms. I don't believe this stock can be manipulated given it's market cap (this isn't Zagg after all). The theory is relevant and interesting though and like most things the truth probably sits between the two extremes i.e. it probably won't be held below 550 but has a very good chance of being held below 800.
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Post by wheeles on Nov 13, 2012 7:36:05 GMT -8
Think things could top out at 547.
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 13, 2012 7:37:29 GMT -8
Think things could top out at 547. You think it hits 547 and retreats here, Wheeles?
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Post by wheeles on Nov 13, 2012 7:44:51 GMT -8
Think things could top out at 547. You think it hits 547 and retreats here, Wheeles? Looks like the retreat has started already.
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Nov 13, 2012 7:45:53 GMT -8
Pure manipulation? Yes you are right. It probably makes up a small small % of price action around expiration. Still there have been studies on the subject and calls have can have a downward pressure on the underlined stock just based on the function of closing out calls and covering/hedging. www.nytimes.com/2006/05/07/business/yourmoney/07stra.html?_r=0Also did my own stat analysis on how weekly trading pattern has changed since weekly options have been introduced - def statistically significant. We all would have been better off holding apple Friday-Tuesday close only since that time.
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 13, 2012 7:47:14 GMT -8
You think it hits 547 and retreats here, Wheeles? Looks like the retreat has started already. So many lines on your charts I can't make out which one is the lower bollinger band you are referring to...is it in the 531 vicinity or the one below that one?
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Post by wheeles on Nov 13, 2012 7:47:45 GMT -8
You might see one more high at 544.50, but after that the trapdoor could open.
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Post by wheeles on Nov 13, 2012 7:55:34 GMT -8
Looks like the retreat has started already. So many lines on your charts I can't make out which one is the lower bollinger band you are referring to...is it in the 531 vicinity or the one below that one? Yes, sorry lots of lines. Yes, the yellow one around 531 is the lower Bollinger. The outer yellow ones are the Bollingers. Geen is middle Bollinger. Outer purple are acceleration bands. Outer grey are STARC bands. As to the other lines we have: orange = 13 EMA, light blue = middle STARC, red = 50 EMA, and the lighter yellow running through things is a 25 SMA displaced forward 5 bars.
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Post by wheeles on Nov 13, 2012 7:57:20 GMT -8
You think it hits 547 and retreats here, Wheeles? Looks like the retreat has started already. Or maybe not. Therein lies the problem of trying to make very short term predictions. EDIT: That move back up to around 547 looked like a classic case of HFT lift. No doubt someone with a lot to shift has an order in to dump their stuff at that level and Goldman, or whoever, doesn't get paid if it doesn't get sold there.
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 13, 2012 7:59:03 GMT -8
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Post by bernard on Nov 13, 2012 8:04:49 GMT -8
Interesting observation and theory. The facts on the options are quite intriguing although institutional ownership is quite low when compared to norms. I don't believe this stock can be manipulated given it's market cap (this isn't Zagg after all). The theory is relevant and interesting though and like most things the truth probably sits between the two extremes i.e. it probably won't be held below 550 but has a very good chance of being held below 800. The fellow who wrote this article failed to notice the Jan puts outnumber the calls from 550-580. So if his thesis is correct we should be up least to 580 at Jan OPEX.
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Post by bernard on Nov 13, 2012 8:19:37 GMT -8
In fact I just ran maxpain calcs and the Jan number is 580 on all of them.
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Post by prazan on Nov 13, 2012 8:23:39 GMT -8
WHEN WILL THE MADNESS CEASE?NOW we have a FBI agent emailing shirtless photos of himself to a woman in Florida. 20,000-30,000 pages of email over two years sent by a General to a woman in Florida? I am taking a STAND! I promise not to post shirtless photos of myself online. (at least until I lose another 20 pounds) Well that's a relief. BTW this is only the beginning of this story and has the key ingredients to run for days as each day more details emerge (Jill Kelley and her activities are probably going to be the story). The FBI were not going to investigate as they don't believe any threat had been made to Kelley but the determination and frustration of the shirtless FBI agent in Tampa led him to report it to Harry Reid's office. Anyway sorry I digress from the Intraday. It cracks me up and is another clear example of fact being better than fiction. You couldn't make this up! Fact check: The shirtless FBI agent complained to Eric Cantor's office, not Harry Reid's. By the way, this weirdly echoes the newest episode of "Homeland."
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 13, 2012 8:30:00 GMT -8
Maybe the festival of Diwali which begins today (I believe) will bring our company a few green days
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Nov 13, 2012 8:32:54 GMT -8
It's a new moon cycle. We going up and up
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 13, 2012 8:33:53 GMT -8
Twitter is down
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 13, 2012 8:46:59 GMT -8
Well Twitter came back up - weird but just in time for Scott Redler to tweet: $aapl coiling right here- above $547.30 opens the door for more upside motion- still long
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Post by wheeles on Nov 13, 2012 8:49:40 GMT -8
If anyone was in any doubt about intraday price manipulation. We saw a classic case of it today.
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Post by johng on Nov 13, 2012 8:52:47 GMT -8
That article seemed right on to me. Add in some recessionary noise and I suspect the markets and aapl will be "range bound" for a while. Apple needs to decisively beat the earnings estimate to break free and run again. cheers to the longs JohnG
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Post by terps530 on Nov 13, 2012 8:54:13 GMT -8
If anyone was in any doubt about intraday price manipulation. We saw a classic case of it today. yea I panicked on that quick dip. Decided to put on a cheap put weekly put spread at that point to prep for the tanking to 530. I got manipulated! It's ok cost was only $300 and i'll gladly lose that for some big gains in everything else. What was at the 547 level earlier where you thought it would top out at? Was that due to the bands, or something else? TIA
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Post by wheeles on Nov 13, 2012 8:56:30 GMT -8
What was at the 547 level earlier where you thought it would top out at? Was that due to the bands, or something else? A retest of the inside of the 10m Bollingers. However, that wonderful piece of HFT action rather messed things up. EDIT: Now we have lots of retail folk thinking this is a breakout, but what's really happening is the retail fish is on the hook and the line is being played out, only to be reeled back in once it runs out of energy.
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Nov 13, 2012 9:12:30 GMT -8
That article seemed right on to me. Add in some recessionary noise and I suspect the markets and aapl will be "range bound" for a while. Apple needs to decisively beat the earnings estimate to break free and run again. cheers to the longs JohnG Thing is, range bound could mean running the whole way up to 650 before JAN OPEX, or even slightly overcoming to fall below 700....hopefully a continued PUT buildup helps and as someone mentioned there is a ton of them at or right below 580 but i guess the take home point is running above 650 by then may not happen, and running above 700 will need a ton of good catalysts..
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