Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Feb 1, 2017 3:54:02 GMT -8
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Post by CdnPhoto on Feb 1, 2017 4:11:24 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Feb 1, 2017 4:30:19 GMT -8
AAPL is over $126 in pre-market. Weeee.
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Post by rickag on Feb 1, 2017 4:39:38 GMT -8
Pretty amazing results thus ER.
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Post by carbonate24 on Feb 1, 2017 5:17:23 GMT -8
Over at PED's site he has What the Analysts are Saying. Lots of positive commentary, although you still have outfits like Wells Fargo that are trying their hardest to focus on what could go wrong. Which makes me think.....I wonder what Collin Gillis is telling his clients this morning, especially after reiterating his sell and $85 PT last quarter. Anyway, it's nice to have a great quarter and a positive reaction in the stock this morning!
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Post by dmiller on Feb 1, 2017 5:25:19 GMT -8
127+ in PM: WHEEEE.
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Post by nagrani on Feb 1, 2017 5:40:48 GMT -8
Congrats to my friends here. Longs have been weathering a lot to get to this point. As I mentioned last week - I bought back in but I'm going to exit around here and will wait for oversold conditions before jumping back in. Good luck to all of you.
Edit - I'm out. Cheers.
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Post by dreamRaj on Feb 1, 2017 6:32:36 GMT -8
Congrats to my friends here. Longs have been weathering a lot to get to this point. As I mentioned last week - I bought back in but I'm going to exit around here and will wait for oversold conditions before jumping back in. Good luck to all of you. Man, you've been one smart cookie lately. Great job!
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Post by incorrigible on Feb 1, 2017 6:35:44 GMT -8
Sold a bit @ $127.80.
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Post by dreamRaj on Feb 1, 2017 6:43:45 GMT -8
With the first batch of profit-takers out at 128, the next leg up should kick in soon. IMO.
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Post by phoebear611 on Feb 1, 2017 6:45:28 GMT -8
Congrats to Sponge - great showing again according to PED:
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Post by joel90069 on Feb 1, 2017 6:56:16 GMT -8
Coming up on 30 million shares traded already.
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Post by tuffett on Feb 1, 2017 6:59:41 GMT -8
It looks like all the near term AAPL-specific concerns have been quelled for the time being. Tim setting a target of doubling services revenue in 4 years is huge, and his confidence in repatriation happening this year is also huge.
The next iPhone should also sell well, if the rumours about the "iPhone X" are to believed. ASPs could also top $700 - I wouldn't be surprised to see iPhone X start at $999.
Questions still remain about the market and economy as a whole, which means I remain cautious on all stocks I hold, selling covered calls to reduce risk.
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Post by mrentropy on Feb 1, 2017 7:16:00 GMT -8
AAPL is increasing the valuation gap against GOOG, which has taken an absolute dirt nap since earnings. I'm curious to see how FB does tonight. Will the departure of P&G or overstatement scandals affect their results? Will they have stolen more market share from Google? I sold the last on my FB calls this morning, way too volatile to hold through earnings for me.
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Post by phoebear611 on Feb 1, 2017 7:17:20 GMT -8
PED gives a summary of the street this morning ... here's the bottom line:
Mizuho raised PT from $130 to $135 Cowan: ...estimates look sufficiently low to us that $135 seems like a veritable layup with $145-150 possible if our estimates and installed base work proves out. Outperform... Huberty at MS: ...Overweight. $150 (with $190 bull case becoming increasingly likely). Piper stays at Overweight with PT at $155 Stifel: Still ranks it as a Hold. Raise price target to $130 from $115. Wells Fargo: Market perform. Raise valuation range to $110-$125 from $105-$120. RBC: Raise price target to $140 from $125. Canaccord: Buy. Raise price target to $142 from $140. BMO: Raise price target to $142 from $135.
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Post by incorrigible on Feb 1, 2017 7:58:55 GMT -8
Debating on whether or not to unload my Jan18 $120 LEAPs. Tempting ...
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Post by rickag on Feb 1, 2017 8:05:31 GMT -8
Nice day for AAPL so far.
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Post by tuffett on Feb 1, 2017 8:24:29 GMT -8
Keep in mind AAPL is trading at historically overbought levels. A small correction would be healthy.
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Post by sponge on Feb 1, 2017 8:25:30 GMT -8
Strong numbers as expected. Their guidance was not that impressive, but they will most likely beat and WS likes growth.
P/E is about to expand. Given the move this morning, I can see us hitting 133 in about 6 weeks.
What was impressive is that despite a 30% drop in Q over Q margins are going up. This please WS along with strong iPhone sales.
Personally I am in cash with trading account. May jump back in if we get down to 124-125 area. RSI was high yesterday and nosebleed today.
The other category is of concern. They maybe selling a ton of watches but ASP is coming way down. They are selling less AirPods then I would have expected.
By the way that 190 number MS has out there is very doable in 18 months or less. Let's see how much cash they bring home, and at what rate.
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 1, 2017 8:59:14 GMT -8
schadenfreude So, what will happen on earnings? Well, simply said: IT IS SIMPLY NOT POSSIBLE FOR APPLE TO SPIKE UP POST-EARNINGS. It didn’t happen to Google, it didn’t happen to Western Digital, Qualcomm or even Intel or Microsoft (2%! Yay!), despite excellent earnings (which Apple won’t have). Based on that, here are all the possible scenarios that could happen, ranked from worst to best, along with what would happen to me: 1) The Google Gambit: Big funds play the “oh they had one below average quarter but they are still growing and they have huge product lines coming (yeah, right)” – stock miraculously only drops 1-2% (like GOOG) is - I don’t make any money, but I don’t lose any either. I’m pissed off. Likelihood:< 1% 2) The Qualcomm Quack: Apple somehow miraculously saves face by playing with inventories/supplies/doing Valeant stuff. Then, the stock would drop only 3-4%. I would make a little bit of money. Likelihood: 4% 3) The “we barely got away with that one” scenario: Apple cheats and starts buying its own iPhones to prevent the number from crumbling too bad. It’s a bad quarter, but not too bad. Apple crashes to $118 in AH and then drifts down to $115. I essentially double my money, a $100,000 gain. Likelihood: 20% 4) The “last minute wildcard” scenario: Apple somehow managed to earn more than I thought on some miracle play (hedging). Earnings are down by quite a bit. Apple crashes to $115 and barely stays above $110 in the next few trading sessions. I essentially quadruple my money, a $300,000 gain. Likelihood: 25% 5) The “Back in the Basement” Scenario: Apple is honest about its terrible quarter and results, but downplays it and people somehow buy it. Apple crashes to $112 in AH and drifts down to $105 by Feb 17. I essentially sixtuple my money. A $500,000 gain. Likelihood:15% 6) The Meltdown Scenario Apple: is honest about its terrible quarter and investors aren’t dumb. They mass sell the stock. It crumbles to $105 in AH and some idiots buy it thinking it’s a “bargain.” I make over a million overnight and another $250,000 in the days that follow. It crashes to $95 by Feb 17. *Likelihood: 25% * 7) The “Hillary Clinton Scenario”: It’s worse than I thought. Tim Cook apologizes and steps down, citing personal problems. Apple plummets below $100 in AH. People panic, everyone wants to sell, it’s on the top of every newspapers. It opens at $101 the next day, immediately gaps below $97 and then spiral down to $90 where it belongs (maybe even lower, but let’s keep it at that). I more than fiftytuple my money, making $5,000,000. *Likelihood: 10% * https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/5qhzcy/well_this_is_it_going_allin_my_last_stand_my/www.marketwatch.com/story/this-trader-bets-it-all-on-apple-getting-crushed-after-earnings-2017-01-30
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Post by dreamRaj on Feb 1, 2017 9:07:16 GMT -8
Debating on whether or not to unload my Jan18 $120 LEAPs. Tempting ... I'm in a similar situation. But I'm going to hold longer because I think we will get to 130-131 sooner than later.
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Post by rmhe1999 on Feb 1, 2017 9:15:42 GMT -8
I watched this guy's live video blog as earnings were released yesterday. Needless to say he freaked out and lost his sh-t. He wore a mask to hide his identity. Most of the commenters on the live blog were saying that the account number shown on his live feed of his trading account indicated that it was a demo account. AKA there is a high suspicion that this was all staged / fake. If real though, sucks to be that guy right now.EDIT: Reading his blog from the link above for the second time, found this gem, " Of course, there is no chance AAPL is $128 after earnings, but without those calls, I would need a $2M+ cushion in margin" So yeah, let's go back and bold my previous statement.
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Post by dreamRaj on Feb 1, 2017 9:37:07 GMT -8
Strong feeling that big money (institutional) is rolling back in. They don't want to lose out on the two big factors in Apple's favor this year - iPhone X and repatriation windfall.
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Post by dmiller on Feb 1, 2017 10:03:27 GMT -8
This may be one of the largest (if not "the" largest) post-earnings moves up of all time. On the old scale, this would be a +$50 move.
Anyone want to spend a little while looking back to see which previous post-earnings moves might compare?
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Post by sponge on Feb 1, 2017 10:08:42 GMT -8
Well I am putting my toes in the water by buying a few puts.
We give back $2 in the next 24 hours and I double my money.
RSI at 88 is insane.
I do think we will hit 130-131 in short order.
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 1, 2017 10:25:09 GMT -8
This may be one of the largest (if not "the" largest) post-earnings moves up of all time. On the old scale, this would be a +$50 move. Anyone want to spend a little while looking back to see which previous post-earnings moves might compare? aaplinvestors.net/stats/rank/
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 1, 2017 11:24:37 GMT -8
Weeee! One benefit of fast moves like this, other than the obvious capital gains, is AAPL just blows past the call walls.
The bad news being, the option gamblers get intermittent reinforcement, the most addictive of all, which means more options action and more walls.
We just need $5/day of weeee to stay ahead, like the good ol' days.
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 1, 2017 11:28:27 GMT -8
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Post by dmiller on Feb 1, 2017 11:45:52 GMT -8
This may be one of the largest (if not "the" largest) post-earnings moves up of all time. On the old scale, this would be a +$50 move. Anyone want to spend a little while looking back to see which previous post-earnings moves might compare? aaplinvestors.net/stats/rank/The chart: I remember some of those % changes, at least, the RED ones. 29 Sep 2000, lost a little more than half of its value. If I remember right, this was from a big earnings miss. (may or may not have been related to the Cube fiasco). We were in the $50's, and the huge drop to $25 was gut-wrenching. And then we kept going lower. (see 6 Dec 2000, down almost another 50% from that to $14). The first iPod was introduced in October 2001, just a little more than a year after the fall 2009 bloodbath, but it didn't start picking up traction or helping the stock for quite a long time. AAPL stayed in that graveyard range for a couple of years and it felt like dead money. If you could go back in time, that would be a good day to revisit and put down some money - it wouldn't take much. Those shares are up 120x (aka 6000%) since then. A $10,000 investment in early Dec 2000 would be worth $1.2 million today. The large GREEN % gains on the chart are all Oct 1999 and earlier, at a time when relatively speaking, Apple Computer was a "niche" computer company. Just barely alive in those years; "beleaguered" and always said to be on the verge of going out of business. Today's gain, while not in the same % range as larger % gains from 20+ years ago, is still a very large one, based on the many years between the 2.28.05 2:1 split and the 6.9.14 7:1 split. We were in "that" scale for 9 1/2 years and the price was, for a great deal of the early part of those years, was in the 100 range. (in the 90's when the first iPhone was unveiled; upwards to $200 for a while, then the double-peak and crash; etc). We didn't get into the 300's until much later, then we had the fun up through $700 and then then the years of crud, down to $400 and below, before the iPhone 6 brought us back and we had our 7:1 split. Through all of those years, a comparative $50+ gain post-earnings, like what we're seeing today, would have been a huge deal. :-) * Today we have a billion+ users, carrying Apple computers in their pockets, tapped into the worldwide communications network and the entire knowledge base of humanity, and connected to, potentially, multi-billions of users worldwide. It's no wonder the chart looks the way it does, going back 5, 10, 15 or more years.
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Post by dmiller on Feb 1, 2017 11:47:15 GMT -8
And while I was writing all of that, we actually blew past $130 briefly.
WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE.
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