Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Mar 16, 2017 2:22:24 GMT -8
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Post by incorrigible on Mar 16, 2017 5:29:45 GMT -8
I'm looking for more things to shovel... Turn on CNBC. It's usually knee deep there.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,353
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Post by bud777 on Mar 16, 2017 8:35:08 GMT -8
I think that much of the activity in the recent rise is due to people placing their bets in anticipation of repatriation. Despite wanting in my bones for the investing world at large to value Apple as we do, the persistence of the negative narrative over so many years makes it hard for me to believe that investors at large have suddenly seen the light. The drop in trading volume and the historically low volatility imply to me that up until recently, the traders had moved on, the institutions were looking for quicker rewards, and only the long term holders were left. While it hasn't been a strong enough narrative to bring Nathan back into the fold (Does anyone remember Nathan?) the possibility of a repatriation pop seems to be attracting the worst kind of trading animal, the greedy lemming.
I was in D.C. this week and had a chance to talk to all of my senators and representatives. They do not expect repatriation to happen before the fall, if then. Congress will be occupied with the health care repeal for the next month or so and then they have to get a budget in place to avoid a shutdown. We should certainly have at least one earnings report before we hear anything about repatriation. We know all to well how the press can seize on a quarter to quarter data point and turn greed into fear. If you believe in Behaviorial Finance, we are in a tenuous position. This is not a comment on Apple or the quality of the products or company. It is an conjecture that we have recently acquired a lot of investors who will react with a very short term focus. The talk that happens when the microphones are off was about impeachment. It was not about if, it was about when. Imagine what even a public discussion about that would do to those looking for a quick buck.
I have no idea what is going to happen, but I would feel irresponsible if I didn't pass this on. Be careful out there.
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Post by incorrigible on Mar 16, 2017 8:40:55 GMT -8
Thanks for the insight bud. Don't forget Buffett's AAPL buy. Speaks volumes to many about the value of Apple's business both from a short and (more importantly) long term perspective.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,353
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Post by bud777 on Mar 16, 2017 8:48:39 GMT -8
Thanks for the insight bud. Don't forget Buffett's AAPL buy. Speaks volumes to many about the value of Apple's business both from a short and (more importantly) long term perspective. I agree. I have no concerns about the long term. Anyone with a two year horizon will be fine. 6 months or less, maybe not
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Post by davidstevenson on Mar 16, 2017 9:03:50 GMT -8
"I think that much of the activity in the recent rise is due to people placing their bets in anticipation of repatriation. Despite wanting in my bones for the investing world at large to value Apple as we do, the persistence of the negative narrative over so many years makes it hard for me to believe that investors at large have suddenly seen the light. The drop in trading volume and the historically low volatility imply to me that up until recently, the traders had moved on, the institutions were looking for quicker rewards, and only the long term holders were left. While it hasn't been a strong enough narrative to bring Nathan back into the fold (Does anyone remember Nathan?) the possibility of a repatriation pop seems to be attracting the worst kind of trading animal, the greedy lemming. I was in D.C. this week and had a chance to talk to all of my senators and representatives. They do not expect repatriation to happen before the fall, if then. Congress will be occupied with the health care repeal for the next month or so and then they have to get a budget in place to avoid a shutdown. We should certainly have at least one earnings report before we hear anything about repatriation. We know all to well how the press can seize on a quarter to quarter data point and turn greed into fear. If you believe in Behaviorial Finance, we are in a tenuous position. This is not a comment on Apple or the quality of the products or company. It is an conjecture that we have recently acquired a lot of investors who will react with a very short term focus. The talk that happens when the microphones are off was about impeachment. It was not about if, it was about when. Imagine what even a public discussion about that would do to those looking for a quick buck. I have no idea what is going to happen, but I would feel irresponsible if I didn't pass this on. Be careful out there." I thought the recent (last month or so) activity was due to anticipating the iPhone 8/X "super cycle" upgrade. And I recall reading that institutional ownership was slowly increasing, although not to the level of years past. The drop in trading volume probably means mostly individual investors trading, who (I think) usually trail institutional investors. As to the D.C. discussions, it would be helpful to know the party affiliation. I thought repatriation was part of the tax overhaul, so I was thinking more of a 2018 time-frame; although I know there'd be a goal to get it wrapped up before year's end to "reward" taxpayers in their income tax for 2017 (I don't know how much lead time is required; maybe by midnight Dec 31st?).
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crispin
Member
KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
Posts: 311
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Post by crispin on Mar 16, 2017 9:18:19 GMT -8
It's impossible to quantify naturally, but my guess is that the repatriation bet is largely dwarfed by the alleged iPhone "super cycle" investors. I'm also heartened by the "growth of services" narrative I see gaining increasing coverage in the press lately. To say nothing of the simple overall "return to growth" story for Apple. So I see a number of contributing factors to AAPL's recent strength, I'm not sure we can point to any one as the primary justification.
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Post by tuffett on Mar 16, 2017 9:33:55 GMT -8
Hoping for repatriation and then impeachment, in that order.
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Post by mrentropy on Mar 16, 2017 11:17:44 GMT -8
Anyone following SNAP? I was tinkering with shorting it via puts this week, but the IV is too high. It has been on an express elevator down, broke below 20 today.
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Post by rickag on Mar 16, 2017 12:02:32 GMT -8
Green
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Post by artman1033 on Mar 16, 2017 13:11:41 GMT -8
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Post by incorrigible on Mar 16, 2017 15:18:31 GMT -8
I did see a $141.02 print today.
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Post by rickag on Mar 16, 2017 16:40:18 GMT -8
incorrigible Yes, looking at it yes, I believe you did.
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Post by sponge on Mar 16, 2017 16:52:24 GMT -8
The move since earnings has more to do with solid numbers, decent guidance, and different approach towards valuation which lead to higher p/e. Good market appreciation for extra measure. Reparation is not priced in because there are too many unknowns. Timing, amount of tax, use of funds, and other trade factors.
Fundamentals for once is driving the stock.
If we get the tax holiday, get ready for a massive gain in EPS of at least 5 points. That alone is worth 30% in my book. A year from now we should be singing a different tune.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,353
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Post by bud777 on Mar 16, 2017 18:13:32 GMT -8
The move since earnings has more to do with solid numbers, decent guidance, and different approach towards valuation which lead to higher p/e. Good market appreciation for extra measure. Reparation is not priced in because there are too many unknowns. Timing, amount of tax, use of funds, and other trade factors. Fundamentals for once is driving the stock. If we get the tax holiday, get ready for a massive gain in EPS of at least 5 points. That alone is worth 30% in my book. A year from now we should be singing a different tune. I want so much to believe you sponge, but I just cannot convince myself. Adjusting for the 14 week quarter, the numbers were not spectacular. The China sales dropped dramatically in a quarter when China Mobile added new customers at a better than average rate. It is not that the numbers were not good, it is just that none of the numbers were breakout crazy 115 goes to 140 good. Certainly the focus on service numbers was a shift in the narrative, but valuing Apple as a service has been out there for at least a year. Wasn't it GS that said it almost a year ago? My point is that there is nothing new big enough to drive a rational increase like we have seen. At least not anything I see. I absolutely refuse to believe that the analysts have had their come-to-jesus moment. I think this is momentum driven by the hope of a reparation bump. Let's see what happens when we begin to see news stories walking back the taxes. I hope I am wrong and you are right. The odds are in your favor
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Post by david on Mar 16, 2017 22:46:59 GMT -8
The move since earnings has more to do with solid numbers, decent guidance, and different approach towards valuation which lead to higher p/e. Good market appreciation for extra measure. Reparation is not priced in because there are too many unknowns. Timing, amount of tax, use of funds, and other trade factors. Fundamentals for once is driving the stock. If we get the tax holiday, get ready for a massive gain in EPS of at least 5 points. That alone is worth 30% in my book. A year from now we should be singing a different tune. I want so much to believe you sponge, but I just cannot convince myself. Adjusting for the 14 week quarter, the numbers were not spectacular. The China sales dropped dramatically in a quarter when China Mobile added new customers at a better than average rate. It is not that the numbers were not good, it is just that none of the numbers were breakout crazy 115 goes to 140 good. Certainly the focus on service numbers was a shift in the narrative, but valuing Apple as a service has been out there for at least a year. Wasn't it GS that said it almost a year ago? My point is that there is nothing new big enough to drive a rational increase like we have seen. At least not anything I see. I absolutely refuse to believe that the analysts have had their come-to-jesus moment. I think this is momentum driven by the hope of a reparation bump. Let's see what happens when we begin to see news stories walking back the taxes. I hope I am wrong and you are right. The odds are in your favor I don't understand falling volume and rising price. Anyone have a theory?
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Post by rickag on Mar 17, 2017 3:36:37 GMT -8
I want so much to believe you sponge, but I just cannot convince myself. Adjusting for the 14 week quarter, the numbers were not spectacular. The China sales dropped dramatically in a quarter when China Mobile added new customers at a better than average rate. It is not that the numbers were not good, it is just that none of the numbers were breakout crazy 115 goes to 140 good. Certainly the focus on service numbers was a shift in the narrative, but valuing Apple as a service has been out there for at least a year. Wasn't it GS that said it almost a year ago? My point is that there is nothing new big enough to drive a rational increase like we have seen. At least not anything I see. I absolutely refuse to believe that the analysts have had their come-to-jesus moment. I think this is momentum driven by the hope of a reparation bump. Let's see what happens when we begin to see news stories walking back the taxes. I hope I am wrong and you are right. The odds are in your favor I don't understand falling volume and rising price. Anyone have a theory? One theory that could partially explain this could be owners of AAPL have sifted to long term investors not willing to sell so the volume dries up leaving many traders unwilling to pay the price. It's possible the % owned by institutions is on the rise. I also believe owners of AAPL are indeed holding in anticipation of repatriation of overseas profits. Apple has unheard of amounts of profits held overseas even after adjusting for debt (re: the big elephant on the trading room floor). my 2¢
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