Mav
Member
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Nov 16, 2012 13:05:53 GMT -8
38.2% retrace of the intraday move already hit when AAPL was around 520 at around 2:30 EST.
If we don't look back from there the micro trading picture looks pretty good.
Hope to go back to momo/swing trading (more carefully) soon.
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 16, 2012 13:06:40 GMT -8
As if the AAPL crisis wasn't enough -- this whole Hostess going out of business had me run out to buy Twinkies, Yodels, Devil Dogs and Ring Dings. Ah.... there goes my youth. RIP I feel your pain. But fortunately, Drake's makes a comparable product for at least the Yodels and Ring Dings. Drakes is part of Hostess - they are all GONE!!!
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,353
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Post by bud777 on Nov 16, 2012 13:09:42 GMT -8
Why do you say this? Please elaborate. Thanks Once we have high volume days with quick reversals that signals a low. Today is a perfect example. I have been buying this stock since 2005 and I have seen this pattern many times. It took me a while to recongize it. I think we can revist close to those lows just to panic the short term option holders once again and get a few more to bail out. We are out of the woods simply because Apple is a great company and the slow trickle of selling for the last 8 weeks is about to come to an end. Those holding Jan and April options can still lose all of their money simply because the stock could move slower then they would like back up. I hold April calls that are upsidedown, but I took the risk and that is part of the game. However I only risk 10% of my portfolio in options given the risk. The dividend now is allowing me reinvest or almost just live off of. I will continue to buy stock because every 12 months I get richer and richer. Option can give me great rewards but the last 8 weeks is a perfect example how risky they are. We will have this pattern of profit taking three more times in the next 12 months. No one know when it will happen and how big it will be. Love the action and volume today. Now Will wait for that sell off in the next 3 weeks and watch the panic return. OK, let me try to parse this... Once we have high volume days with quick reversals that signals a low. Today is a perfect example. So this is a low and thus we are going up... I think we can revisit close to those lows just to panic the short term option holders once again and get a few more to bail out.But not really up because we will come back down.... We are out of the woodsSo now the stock is really going to go up.... the stock could move slower then they would likeBut not very fast... Still, even hedging your predictions... No one know when it will happen and how big it will be.you feel certain that... We will have this pattern of profit taking three more times in the next 12 monthsso here is my question: You are really Nate, aren't you?
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Post by The Big Toe on Nov 16, 2012 13:17:20 GMT -8
Boy, were you WAAAAAY off on calling the bottom for 2 pm today. That was no where near the low at 2. I can find no reason to trust your judgement anymore.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 16, 2012 13:18:15 GMT -8
Love you, Spongie! And very nice to see you posting today!
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Post by miguelfoogo on Nov 16, 2012 13:18:38 GMT -8
My very first post on this board was calling Sponge out for some silly prediction. I did not understand who he was/ his approach back then. I read some explanations from Sponge and others. He likes to throw some random predictions out there, but his personal investment strategy is solid. I have a lot of respect for him now. Edit: Ipad also helped set me straight
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Post by prazan on Nov 16, 2012 13:22:25 GMT -8
Yes, Sponge's calls can sometimes look like a weathervane in a whirlwind, but therein lies the charm.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,554
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Post by mark on Nov 16, 2012 13:23:45 GMT -8
That's a little hyperbolic. I define "generational buy" as something that has the possibility of going up 10X or 100X. There is almost zero likelihood that Apple goes up 10X from here to become a $5T company (which would require $250B-500B annual profit, which would require Apple to take over almost the entire personal handheld device segment ). That said, I am still very bullish on the stock. I've owned it for many years and have never sold a single share as I've accumulated them. The only trading I do is with options, and even in that case, I usually buy and hold them for quite a while. Sadly my Jan '13s are suffering mightily and my Jan '13 450/500 BCS is even in danger! Who would have ever thought that such a conservative position could be in danger??? IMHO: The best risk reward investment from now until the end of april is long AAPL hedge with short SPY. Lots of alpha and would cushion loses if there were to be macro event that is hard predict. Comments welcome I don't want to short SPY right now. There's all sorts of risks: 1) Solving the fiscal cliff is good for a few hundred Dow points. 2) Another fake Euro-solution is worth another few hundred Dow points. 3) QE-99 may be announced, also worth a lot. And long AAPL against it has other risks involved. What if AAPL really isn't having a good quarter and warns on revenue/profit? (Not very likely, but still within the realm of possible)
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 16, 2012 13:24:37 GMT -8
Here's the thing about predictions... They're *all* WAGs. Mine aren't random, but crap, it's not like mine are any better than anyone else's. I'm constantly wrong...and pleasantly surprised when I'm not wrong. No one EVER knows for sure what's going to happen.
The only thing I find worthwhile in trading is the identification of key levels...but you *still* have to see how price behaves there... price *still* has to confirm or invalidate your thesis. IMHO, it's always IF/THEN. Anything else...it's just guessing. And we're ALL just guessing...
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 16, 2012 13:25:14 GMT -8
Edit: Ipad also helped set me straight Awww...thanks!
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Post by sponge on Nov 16, 2012 13:29:51 GMT -8
My predictions may be wrong.
But what I do know is that my portfolio that was 7 figures will recover.
When it all said and counted I only lost $6k by betting on Oct options.
Buy and Hold works for me and I sleep well at night not worrying about where the stock will be in 4-6 months.
I may make a cool million just for kicks if I am lucky but I will get $200k simply because I did not panic with my April options. It is all play money for me, so if I lose my initial investment I won't cry because my portfolio is still strong no matter how wrong my predictions are.
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Post by Nevyn on Nov 16, 2012 13:29:54 GMT -8
I can't believe I'm saying this, but after this morning, $527 never looked so good!
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Post by adamthompson32 on Nov 16, 2012 13:31:08 GMT -8
The only thing I asked today was for evidence that "buying on weakness" is good for the stock price and "selling on strength" is bad for the stock price. The only thing I got in response was a temper tantrum, which apparently is good for the stock price (today is my only evidence). So, here I am asking the same question. Any evidence out there about "buying on weakness" and "selling on strength"? A few more tantrums and we'll hit new all time highs:)
But seriously, today's action was really interesting. Seen it before and it looks promising to me.
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Post by prazan on Nov 16, 2012 13:32:04 GMT -8
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 16, 2012 13:34:48 GMT -8
I have not caught up on all the posts here today...so I have not read any temper tantrums... It would be nice if they disappeared before I got to them...
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 16, 2012 13:37:27 GMT -8
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Post by adamthompson32 on Nov 16, 2012 13:37:31 GMT -8
I have not caught up on all the posts here today...so I have not read any temper tantrums... It would be nice if they disappeared before I got to them... I won't "tell" on the perpetrator. It was harmless, even if harm was intended. Bottom line, today was strong...I think.
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Post by chasmac on Nov 16, 2012 13:39:24 GMT -8
Edit: Ipad also helped set me straight Awww...thanks! Missed you today. Felt like barfing on my keyboard after a few knife catching escapades gone bad. Bot some weeklies at the bottom. Netted $8.70 on them :-) Ending green will help a little with the hyperventilating. Good weekend all
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 16, 2012 13:40:41 GMT -8
I have not caught up on all the posts here today...so I have not read any temper tantrums... It would be nice if they disappeared before I got to them... I already deleted the picture of me putting my foot through the computer monitor when we hit 505....
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Post by Xphilos on Nov 16, 2012 13:40:45 GMT -8
I'm worried about the price action at the end of the day today. Bought some leap call spreads as a hedge against upside risk ;D
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Post by prazan on Nov 16, 2012 13:41:20 GMT -8
I have not caught up on all the posts here today...so I have not read any temper tantrums... It would be nice if they disappeared before I got to them... Just another episode of Sponge Bob and Squidward Q. Tentacles.
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 16, 2012 13:43:09 GMT -8
Boy, were you WAAAAAY off on calling the bottom for 2 pm today. That was no where near the low at 2. I can find no reason to trust your judgement anymore. Dude - you have to give me some credit for calling the day! C'mon...!
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Post by ibuyer on Nov 16, 2012 13:43:24 GMT -8
IMHO: The best risk reward investment from now until the end of april is long AAPL hedge with short SPY. Lots of alpha and would cushion loses if there were to be macro event that is hard predict. Comments welcome I don't want to short SPY right now. There's all sorts of risks: 1) Solving the fiscal cliff is good for a few hundred Dow points. 2) Another fake Euro-solution is worth another few hundred Dow points. 3) QE-99 may be announced, also worth a lot. And long AAPL against it has other risks involved. What if AAPL really isn't having a good quarter and warns on revenue/profit? (Not very likely, but still within the realm of possible) Thanks for the comment. If AAPL misses the stock is toast. Three strikes in three quarters and it being xmas too.
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Post by prazan on Nov 16, 2012 13:45:33 GMT -8
For another feel-good moment, take a look at the price in after hours. Meaningless, I know, but still up two bucks and change. Folks will think over the weekend and if the macro situation remains stable we might see them pile in on Monday.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 16, 2012 13:48:45 GMT -8
I have not caught up on all the posts here today...so I have not read any temper tantrums... It would be nice if they disappeared before I got to them... I already deleted the picture of me putting my foot through the computer monitor when we hit 505.... You had to be pretty flexible to take that shot. But the reversible lens feature on the IPhone camera would certainly help there.
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 16, 2012 13:50:14 GMT -8
For another feel-good moment, take a look at the price in after hours. Meaningless, I know, but still up two bucks and change. Folks will think over the weekend and if the macro situation remains stable we might see them pile in on Monday. Yes indeed - I wasn't responding to your post because I was watching the AH price action. Let's hope next week is a good one!
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 16, 2012 13:54:11 GMT -8
Well here comes the party pooper on CNBC at 5:00 pm.... Gundlach coming to say how you should be playing AAPL ...
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 16, 2012 14:02:33 GMT -8
I'm worried about the price action at the end of the day today. Bought some leap call spreads as a hedge against upside risk ;D ROFL!!!
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Post by ibuyer on Nov 16, 2012 14:03:17 GMT -8
Rough week. A few thoughts into the weekend.
- 45m share traded is 3rd highest of the year and highest after March. - from 505 to close at 527 was a ~4.5 bounce intraday - the day candle sure looks like a hammer. An up day on high relative volume monday will be really good confirmation. - However, still down quite a bit for the week and 8 straight down weeks. Technically, I will take a doji next week on the weekly chart (flatish with no much movement). Then, follow up some good long weekend sales to spur some buying action. Probably should lay off the hard stuff...
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Post by Zeke on Nov 16, 2012 14:08:20 GMT -8
If content is the only thing holding the iTV back, then Apple should take the $100+ billion and buy the NFL (let's not talk about anti-trust issues). No, take about $40B and get controlling interest in Disney (SJ heirs already have about 9%). That would give them ABC/ESPN (MNF, NASCAR, BCS, etc.), all of Disney's content, all of Pixar's content, Touchstone, etc.
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