Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on May 1, 2017 2:39:25 GMT -8
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Post by rickag on May 1, 2017 5:09:51 GMT -8
Just saw AAPL premarket, wow.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on May 1, 2017 5:39:32 GMT -8
Weeeee and it's not 10...
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Post by dmiller on May 1, 2017 5:47:54 GMT -8
Since84, you beat me by a few minutes, but I'll do it anyway.
Wheee.
(with an H. Big time!)
Not good enough. Let's try again.
WHHEEEEEEEEEE. !!!!
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Post by dreamRaj on May 1, 2017 5:59:09 GMT -8
This feels good. Not just because we're going higher but also because during ER tomorrow we'll be closer to 150 rather than 140. So even if we drop, 139-140 seems like the lowest we'll go.
Keeping in mind the upcoming iPhone 8 "super cycle" and the repatriation "promise", I don't see any (valid) reason for the stock to drop even if Apple announces just-in-line numbers and guidance. I'm also hoping that they beef up the dividend this time.
145.87 - today's ATH so far.
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Post by tuffett on May 1, 2017 6:17:33 GMT -8
I'd like to see a good boost to the dividend too but I'm not expecting anything other than a 5-6 cent bump, in the range of 10%. Apple seems quite content to play the slow and steady approach, which will work out long term.
As usual, guidance will be more important than reported numbers - hopefully Apple guides to a nice YoY compare as last year was very weak.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on May 1, 2017 7:09:29 GMT -8
Always scares me when we're at a high going into ER.
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on May 1, 2017 7:13:37 GMT -8
Nice day so far!! Boosting the div 10% per year is just right. Wouldn't want them to raise it more - keeps its growth sustainable for years to come. Cheers to us longs!
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Post by tuffett on May 1, 2017 8:03:22 GMT -8
Nice day so far!! Boosting the div 10% per year is just right. Wouldn't want them to raise it more - keeps its growth sustainable for years to come. Cheers to us longs! The current payout ratio is 27%. If confident about future EPS growth they can easily bump up to 40-50% and then maintain a steady 8-10% growth from there. I can see why they haven't, as the focus has been on buybacks and EPS growth isn't at all consistent. They're probably also waiting for repatriation. It is something to consider though - I'm not sure buybacks at these levels are prudent.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,431
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Post by chinacat on May 1, 2017 8:10:25 GMT -8
I'd like to see a good boost to the dividend too but I'm not expecting anything other than a 5-6 cent bump, in the range of 10%. Apple seems quite content to play the slow and steady approach, which will work out long term. As usual, guidance will be more important than reported numbers - hopefully Apple guides to a nice YoY compare as last year was very weak. I agree on both fronts, but worry a bit that the anticipation of the Fall extravaganza could suck the life out of 4Q, and that guidance may anticipate that occurring, which could create a buying opportunity.
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Post by dreamRaj on May 1, 2017 10:12:23 GMT -8
Sold my Jan 2018 100 Calls today for a profit of $16,000.
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Post by tuffett on May 1, 2017 11:52:28 GMT -8
Sold my Jan 2018 100 Calls today for a profit of $16,000. Smart move. Lock in profits at an all-time highs with earnings volatility pricing. I sold $175 calls against my $95s.
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Post by artman1033 on May 1, 2017 12:16:20 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on May 1, 2017 14:09:43 GMT -8
Sold my Jan 2018 100 Calls today for a profit of $16,000. Good move. I've been out of the stock for awhile now. Did not think that a company who saw top and bottom line shrinkage in FY16 would see a continued push forward like this. Gives me the feeling that this run is more broad market/tech sector driven than anything related to the company.
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Post by dreamRaj on May 1, 2017 14:31:15 GMT -8
Sold my Jan 2018 100 Calls today for a profit of $16,000. Smart move. Lock in profits at an all-time highs with earnings volatility pricing. I sold $175 calls against my $95s. I also sold 10 (of 45) Jun 2017 120 Calls at $27.25. I think mine was the highest trade for the day. My total cost price for 45 calls was $19,250. So I got all my money back plus $8000 profit. Now I'm riding the 35 calls and will take profits in parts as the stock goes higher.
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Post by dreamRaj on May 1, 2017 14:44:07 GMT -8
Sold my Jan 2018 100 Calls today for a profit of $16,000. Good move. I've been out of the stock for awhile now. Did not think that a company who saw top and bottom line shrinkage in FY16 would see a continued push forward like this. Gives me the feeling that this run is more broad market/tech sector driven than anything related to the company. That, PLUS iPhone 8 "super cycle", high hopes of a repatriation windfall, and change in sentiment towards a beaten down stock of a lucrative & great company. The last factor is also just as important because it creates a positive trend and we AAPLers know it better than anyone else now to simply follow the trend and not fight it. That's one main reason why I've invested in calls and will do so till the trend is positive. Once the negative trend starts I'll rinse and wait patiently to repeat.
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Post by Luckychoices on May 1, 2017 15:02:40 GMT -8
Sold my Jan 2018 100 Calls today for a profit of $16,000. Did not think that a company who saw top and bottom line shrinkage in FY16 would see a continued push forward like this. I don't think you're the only investor that came to that mistaken conclusion and it may be that many of them are now realizing their mistake and are buying back into the stock. Gives me the feeling that this run is more broad market/tech sector driven than anything related to the company. Gives you the feeling? Is that feeling similar to the one you had when you didn't think that, "a company who saw top and bottom line shrinkage in FY16 would see a continued push forward like this"?
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Post by appledoc on May 1, 2017 16:26:53 GMT -8
Did not think that a company who saw top and bottom line shrinkage in FY16 would see a continued push forward like this. I don't think you're the only investor that came to that mistaken conclusion and it may be that many of them are now realizing their mistake and are buying back into the stock. Gives me the feeling that this run is more broad market/tech sector driven than anything related to the company. Gives you the feeling? Is that feeling similar to the one you had when you didn't think that, "a company who saw top and bottom line shrinkage in FY16 would see a continued push forward like this"? Disagree if you like. While the stock has had a good run over the past year, I'm still not a fan of investing in companies with a trivial dividend and shrinking revenue and profits. I'm not convinced of this iPhone 8 super cycle. Not only do we hear that every cycle, but the way consumers upgrade their phones has drastically changed.
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Post by Luckychoices on May 1, 2017 19:06:59 GMT -8
I don't think you're the only investor that came to that mistaken conclusion and it may be that many of them are now realizing their mistake and are buying back into the stock. Gives you the feeling? Is that feeling similar to the one you had when you didn't think that, "a company who saw top and bottom line shrinkage in FY16 would see a continued push forward like this"? Disagree if you like. Well, of course I disagree and that's why I'm still long the stock. While the stock has had a good run over the past year, I'm still not a fan of investing in companies with a trivial dividend and shrinking revenue and profits. Which means you made the right decision *for you* when you exited the stock as you mentioned in your first comment today: "I've been out of the stock for awhile now.". OTOH, that *trivial dividend*, auto-reinvested in the IRA's of my wife and myself, bought a fair number of shares over the last two years at an average cost basis of $108.56/share. That low average share price was, of course, thanks to the AAPL pullback to the low $90's in 2015. And as it happens, the specific IRA shares purchased with the 05/12/16 dividends @ $91.10 are up 61% as of market close today. So there's that. I'm not convinced of this iPhone 8 super cycle. Not only do we hear that every cycle, but the way consumers upgrade their phones has drastically changed. *Many* AAPL investors are not convinced of "this iPhone 8 super cycle" but are still confident about their long-term AAPL investment. Given the high spirits of some of the investors on this board because of today's ATH, I'm at a loss to understand why you would pick this particular day to come by just to drop something in the punch bowl.
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Post by Apple II+ on May 1, 2017 19:14:15 GMT -8
AAPL still needs to go up at least 4-5% relative to the S&P500 by mid-August if Tim Cook is to get his stock grants that depend on Total Shareholder Return. I think the dividend announcement tomorrow will be important for that. We'll see.
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Post by appledoc on May 2, 2017 2:23:12 GMT -8
Well, of course I disagree and that's why I'm still long the stock. While the stock has had a good run over the past year, I'm still not a fan of investing in companies with a trivial dividend and shrinking revenue and profits. Which means you made the right decision *for you* when you exited the stock as you mentioned in your first comment today: "I've been out of the stock for awhile now.". OTOH, that *trivial dividend*, auto-reinvested in the IRA's of my wife and myself, bought a fair number of shares over the last two years at an average cost basis of $108.56/share. That low average share price was, of course, thanks to the AAPL pullback to the low $90's in 2015. And as it happens, the specific IRA shares purchased with the 05/12/16 dividends @ $91.10 are up 61% as of market close today. So there's that. I'm not convinced of this iPhone 8 super cycle. Not only do we hear that every cycle, but the way consumers upgrade their phones has drastically changed. *Many* AAPL investors are not convinced of "this iPhone 8 super cycle" but are still confident about their long-term AAPL investment. Given the high spirits of some of the investors on this board because of today's ATH, I'm at a loss to understand why you would pick this particular day to come by just to drop something in the punch bowl. Calm down. It was to admit a mistake and provide a counter argument to what the current theme of the board is. We've been through this before. If there had been just one bear here in 2012, the members of this board could have been spared millions in loses. It's not a bad idea to realize your profits every once in awhile. Nobody ever went broke doing that.
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