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Post by dmiller on May 8, 2017 14:36:53 GMT -8
"If they don't ship a watch in the next 30 days they're dead" Chowdhry.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,185
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Post by JDSoCal on May 8, 2017 14:52:42 GMT -8
Hey everyone,
Really busy day, and a pretty bad one at that, but I just wanted to pop in and say,
WEEEEEEEE!!
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Post by mrentropy on May 8, 2017 14:54:12 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,649
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Post by 4aapl on May 8, 2017 17:52:25 GMT -8
It was being written, even admonished, that peak AAPL had come and gone; and that anyone who hadn't sold and taken their profits, had missed out, forever. Apple at that point had become Microsoft, because. No more innovation; no more growth. The stock price would float around the newly established, mature, price range, forever. Those theorists insisted that AAPL would never see valuations above the $400 range again, that it would be foolish to think otherwise, and etc, etc, and blah blah, blah. The bigger thing, in my mind at least, is learning to change over time. AAPL and Apple are both a whole different beast than they were 5, 10, 15 and 20 years ago. And longer than that too, though I didn't watch or own it then. Pretty much my first watching the stock was nearly 2 decades ago, the summer MacWorld, with Steve getting the investment from Microsoft. I'd seen and been to plenty of Macworld's before than, along with some Seybold's (same type of Keynote, with SJ, in person, and free or nearly instead of a $1k price tag) and the like. The takeaway is the stock is hugely different, and we've had timeframes where the stock has retracted and acted like it might have peaked. And while this has been a great run from the $92-105 range this time, if you look at larger timeframes the stock hasn't done as well. 2 years ago the stock was at ~125 for 4-6 months. Annualized, that's a 10.6% gain. Even adding in the dividend if stockcharts.com didn't, that's still not that great. Everyone (in the press headlines) is throwing around the run from 92 in what, 10 months. Sure, that makes for a 82% annualized gain. But that is cherry picking. I'd love to have that, and I'm sure some do. And the right straight call or bull call spread should have been able to capture a 300% gain. But for those just holding the stock, it's an annualized gain of around 10.6% over the past 2 years. Same with the peak in Sept 2012, at ~$100. 9.6% annualized return since then....though that's more of an exact peak point. Lots of people have made lots of money with various investments, mainly when they increased at a very rapid rate. Personally I know of people who made their fortune off of MSFT, CSCO, LU, or DELL. Even XOM or UPS. I'm personally working on transferring over from basically only investing in AAPL, to realizing that while it's a great stock and may continue to do well, things are different. And while I plan to continue to hold for a while, I've had too many major falls in the past two decades. I believe it's 5 times, with multiple times the loss being 85% of top value. Like a concussion, there's only so many times you can take that. My current plan is to sell about 20% of my shares 2-4 weeks before the new iPhones in the fall, most in a ROTH but enough in my main account to knock my margin down to the equivalent to a loan on our house. It's tempting to keep on borrowing since I'm only paying a mere 1.5%, but margin has made things hurt in the past so it's wise to bring down the total value even if the borrowed percentage is reasonably reasonable. And then another chunk, say 10% though more depending on tax changes, in the new year. And then maybe writing some covered calls a year out. It's a process, and that would still leave my stock portfolio with 50% or more in AAPL, which most advisors would think to be absolutely insane. But that would make things much lower risk, while also allowing me to lock in some larger dividends if wanted. While I don't think AAPL has followed the exact path of any other stock, I do think there have been timeframes where it has behaved similarly to others. For instance, as AAPL moved from a market cap matching XOM to being 50% greater, the P/E continued to drop. But it also gave me the idea that even in the worst times for the stock, the floor shouldn't be much below 10, and it wasn't. Current 9 month price appreciation has shown that the stock still has some great legs. But it's worth learning from other companies that things are never going back to the sprint or mid-distance races...though as with Apple, there are still new records being set at the marathon distance too! Thanks all!
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Post by sponge on May 8, 2017 18:00:06 GMT -8
I am out. Cashed in my gains for 233% in my weeklies. Moved up much faster then expected and reached my goal. Will wait for another entry point in about 2.5 weeks. We should start another run towards WWDC.
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Post by Zeke on May 8, 2017 19:00:05 GMT -8
Just a quick question...what's 7 x $153.01?
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Post by Luckychoices on May 8, 2017 20:06:34 GMT -8
It was being written, even admonished, that peak AAPL had come and gone; and that anyone who hadn't sold and taken their profits, had missed out, forever. Apple at that point had become Microsoft, because. No more innovation; no more growth. The stock price would float around the newly established, mature, price range, forever. Those theorists insisted that AAPL would never see valuations above the $400 range again, that it would be foolish to think otherwise, and etc, etc, and blah blah, blah. The bigger thing, in my mind at least, is learning to change over time. AAPL and Apple are both a whole different beast than they were 5, 10, 15 and 20 years ago. And longer than that too, though I didn't watch or own it then. Pretty much my first watching the stock was nearly 2 decades ago, the summer MacWorld, with Steve getting the investment from Microsoft. I'd seen and been to plenty of Macworld's before than, along with some Seybold's (same type of Keynote, with SJ, in person, and free or nearly instead of a $1k price tag) and the like. The takeaway is the stock is hugely different, and we've had timeframes where the stock has retracted and acted like it might have peaked. And while this has been a great run from the $92-105 range this time, if you look at larger timeframes the stock hasn't done as well. 2 years ago the stock was at ~125 for 4-6 months. Annualized, that's a 10.6% gain. Even adding in the dividend if stockcharts.com didn't, that's still not that great. Everyone (in the press headlines) is throwing around the run from 92 in what, 10 months. Sure, that makes for a 82% annualized gain. But that is cherry picking. I'd love to have that, and I'm sure some do. And the right straight call or bull call spread should have been able to capture a 300% gain. But for those just holding the stock, it's an annualized gain of around 10.6% over the past 2 years. Same with the peak in Sept 2012, at ~$100. 9.6% annualized return since then....though that's more of an exact peak point. Lots of people have made lots of money with various investments, mainly when they increased at a very rapid rate. Personally I know of people who made their fortune off of MSFT, CSCO, LU, or DELL. Even XOM or UPS. I'm personally working on transferring over from basically only investing in AAPL, to realizing that while it's a great stock and may continue to do well, things are different. And while I plan to continue to hold for a while, I've had too many major falls in the past two decades. I believe it's 5 times, with multiple times the loss being 85% of top value. Like a concussion, there's only so many times you can take that. My current plan is to sell about 20% of my shares 2-4 weeks before the new iPhones in the fall, most in a ROTH but enough in my main account to knock my margin down to the equivalent to a loan on our house. It's tempting to keep on borrowing since I'm only paying a mere 1.5%, but margin has made things hurt in the past so it's wise to bring down the total value even if the borrowed percentage is reasonably reasonable. And then another chunk, say 10% though more depending on tax changes, in the new year. And then maybe writing some covered calls a year out. It's a process, and that would still leave my stock portfolio with 50% or more in AAPL, which most advisors would think to be absolutely insane. But that would make things much lower risk, while also allowing me to lock in some larger dividends if wanted. While I don't think AAPL has followed the exact path of any other stock, I do think there have been timeframes where it has behaved similarly to others. For instance, as AAPL moved from a market cap matching XOM to being 50% greater, the P/E continued to drop. But it also gave me the idea that even in the worst times for the stock, the floor shouldn't be much below 10, and it wasn't. Current 9 month price appreciation has shown that the stock still has some great legs. But it's worth learning from other companies that things are never going back to the sprint or mid-distance races...though as with Apple, there are still new records being set at the marathon distance too! Thanks all! I hope your strategy works out well for you. All I know is, when AAPL closed at $153.01 today, the value of our AAPL stock was 6.15 X the value it was when I retired on 05/19/08 and I'm not confident or knowledgable enough about the market to try to improve on that return. We've held through the three major pullbacks in share price since 2008 and each time, AAPL has rebounded nicely. When Apple restarted the dividend program in August of 2012, they made a good thing even better as far as we're concerned and this was another *great* day to be holding AAPL for long term. Cheers to the AAPL Longs!!
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Post by Luckychoices on May 8, 2017 20:18:55 GMT -8
I just came across this response on Seeking Alpha that incorporated comments attributed to Warren Buffett. The poster, Bradmeister, would be another great member of this board, IMO. I hope they're authentic Buffett quotes because I like them all_but especially 2, 3, 5 & 6. Bradmeister Comments (2003) |Following |Send Message @agiledave - Berkshire/Buffet doesn't make a mega investment in the $10-20 billion range with the thought of selling out of their position in under five years. That's never been Buffet's investment strategy/philosophy, and there's no reason to believe it will suddenly change in the case of Apple. Here are some actual Warren Buffet quotations that support his long-term investment horizon, particularly as it applies to owning major stakes in blue-chip companies like Apple, Kraft Heinz, Coca-Cola, American Express, and Wells Fargo: 1. "I never attempt to make money on the stock market. I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”
2. “If you aren’t willing to own a stock for ten years, don’t even think about owning it for ten minutes”
3. “When we own portions of outstanding businesses with outstanding managements, our favorite holding period is forever.”
4. “Charlie and I would follow a buy-and-hold policy even if we ran a tax-exempt institution.”
5. “Buy a stock the way you would buy a house. Understand and like it such that you’d be content to own it in the absence of any market.”
And, saving the best for last: 6. “Calling someone who trades actively in the market an investor is like calling someone who repeatedly engages in one-night stands a romantic.”NOTE: To help explain the reason behind the post with the Buffett quotes, this is the post to which he was responding: AgileDave Comments (7101) |+ Follow |Send Message Brad, he's dumping IBM because it's not performing. His longstanding philosophy is "Never Lose Money." AKA Rule 1. He'll dump AAPL, too, when it stops performing, as they all do from time to time. Unlike parrots, he's not suicidal. Remember "Rule 1." He's also better at math than parrots.
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Post by tuffett on May 8, 2017 22:09:58 GMT -8
It was being written, even admonished, that peak AAPL had come and gone; and that anyone who hadn't sold and taken their profits, had missed out, forever. Apple at that point had become Microsoft, because. No more innovation; no more growth. The stock price would float around the newly established, mature, price range, forever. Those theorists insisted that AAPL would never see valuations above the $400 range again, that it would be foolish to think otherwise, and etc, etc, and blah blah, blah. The bigger thing, in my mind at least, is learning to change over time. AAPL and Apple are both a whole different beast than they were 5, 10, 15 and 20 years ago. And longer than that too, though I didn't watch or own it then. Pretty much my first watching the stock was nearly 2 decades ago, the summer MacWorld, with Steve getting the investment from Microsoft. I'd seen and been to plenty of Macworld's before than, along with some Seybold's (same type of Keynote, with SJ, in person, and free or nearly instead of a $1k price tag) and the like. The takeaway is the stock is hugely different, and we've had timeframes where the stock has retracted and acted like it might have peaked. And while this has been a great run from the $92-105 range this time, if you look at larger timeframes the stock hasn't done as well. 2 years ago the stock was at ~125 for 4-6 months. Annualized, that's a 10.6% gain. Even adding in the dividend if stockcharts.com didn't, that's still not that great. Everyone (in the press headlines) is throwing around the run from 92 in what, 10 months. Sure, that makes for a 82% annualized gain. But that is cherry picking. I'd love to have that, and I'm sure some do. And the right straight call or bull call spread should have been able to capture a 300% gain. But for those just holding the stock, it's an annualized gain of around 10.6% over the past 2 years. Same with the peak in Sept 2012, at ~$100. 9.6% annualized return since then....though that's more of an exact peak point. Lots of people have made lots of money with various investments, mainly when they increased at a very rapid rate. Personally I know of people who made their fortune off of MSFT, CSCO, LU, or DELL. Even XOM or UPS. I'm personally working on transferring over from basically only investing in AAPL, to realizing that while it's a great stock and may continue to do well, things are different. And while I plan to continue to hold for a while, I've had too many major falls in the past two decades. I believe it's 5 times, with multiple times the loss being 85% of top value. Like a concussion, there's only so many times you can take that. My current plan is to sell about 20% of my shares 2-4 weeks before the new iPhones in the fall, most in a ROTH but enough in my main account to knock my margin down to the equivalent to a loan on our house. It's tempting to keep on borrowing since I'm only paying a mere 1.5%, but margin has made things hurt in the past so it's wise to bring down the total value even if the borrowed percentage is reasonably reasonable. And then another chunk, say 10% though more depending on tax changes, in the new year. And then maybe writing some covered calls a year out. It's a process, and that would still leave my stock portfolio with 50% or more in AAPL, which most advisors would think to be absolutely insane. But that would make things much lower risk, while also allowing me to lock in some larger dividends if wanted. While I don't think AAPL has followed the exact path of any other stock, I do think there have been timeframes where it has behaved similarly to others. For instance, as AAPL moved from a market cap matching XOM to being 50% greater, the P/E continued to drop. But it also gave me the idea that even in the worst times for the stock, the floor shouldn't be much below 10, and it wasn't. Current 9 month price appreciation has shown that the stock still has some great legs. But it's worth learning from other companies that things are never going back to the sprint or mid-distance races...though as with Apple, there are still new records being set at the marathon distance too! Thanks all! This is a fantastic post. It feels good that AAPL has finally reached a fairer valuation, but I don't regret my decision to diversify and invest in TSLA and AMZN as well. There are a LOT of stocks that have outperformed AAPL over the medium term time frame, and people invested 100% in AAPL (or close to it) are doing themselves a disservice if they aren't always looking for other investment opportunities to diversify into. As an example, I bought FSLR at 26 (it was a screaming buy) and booked a 35% gain on it in about 3 weeks. Always keep an eye out for good investment opportunities outside of AAPL - they do exist.
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Post by BillH on May 8, 2017 22:19:06 GMT -8
All the assumptions. All the decisions. They ALL infer one knows what the future may hold. Given that most contend the market is future focused I don't believe that is such an outlandish proposition. Thing is...,know one knows. Will the presumed super cycle play out as some hope? Don't know. Will Apples wearable bets turn into the next big thing? Don't know. Will project Titan ever yield a marketable product? Don't know. What I believe however is that Apple employs some of the brightest people in the industry who continue to work their asses off. There has yet to arrive a serious competitor who believes in the value of owning the whole stack and therefore can produce products that have the same or better quality as Apple. That and that alone is what keeps me as a long term holder. When that competitor appears (and that alone) I will be forced to determine what the future may hold. Until then I'll just continue to enjoy watching the proceedings. .
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,649
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Post by 4aapl on May 8, 2017 22:43:29 GMT -8
The bigger thing, in my mind at least, is learning to change over time. AAPL and Apple are both a whole different beast than they were 5, 10, 15 and 20 years ago. And longer than that too, though I didn't watch or own it then. Pretty much my first watching the stock was nearly 2 decades ago, the summer MacWorld, with Steve getting the investment from Microsoft. I'd seen and been to plenty of Macworld's before than, along with some Seybold's (same type of Keynote, with SJ, in person, and free or nearly instead of a $1k price tag) and the like. The takeaway is the stock is hugely different, and we've had timeframes where the stock has retracted and acted like it might have peaked. And while this has been a great run from the $92-105 range this time, if you look at larger timeframes the stock hasn't done as well. 2 years ago the stock was at ~125 for 4-6 months. Annualized, that's a 10.6% gain. Even adding in the dividend if stockcharts.com didn't, that's still not that great. Everyone (in the press headlines) is throwing around the run from 92 in what, 10 months. Sure, that makes for a 82% annualized gain. But that is cherry picking. I'd love to have that, and I'm sure some do. And the right straight call or bull call spread should have been able to capture a 300% gain. But for those just holding the stock, it's an annualized gain of around 10.6% over the past 2 years. Same with the peak in Sept 2012, at ~$100. 9.6% annualized return since then....though that's more of an exact peak point. Lots of people have made lots of money with various investments, mainly when they increased at a very rapid rate. Personally I know of people who made their fortune off of MSFT, CSCO, LU, or DELL. Even XOM or UPS. I'm personally working on transferring over from basically only investing in AAPL, to realizing that while it's a great stock and may continue to do well, things are different. And while I plan to continue to hold for a while, I've had too many major falls in the past two decades. I believe it's 5 times, with multiple times the loss being 85% of top value. Like a concussion, there's only so many times you can take that. My current plan is to sell about 20% of my shares 2-4 weeks before the new iPhones in the fall, most in a ROTH but enough in my main account to knock my margin down to the equivalent to a loan on our house. It's tempting to keep on borrowing since I'm only paying a mere 1.5%, but margin has made things hurt in the past so it's wise to bring down the total value even if the borrowed percentage is reasonably reasonable. And then another chunk, say 10% though more depending on tax changes, in the new year. And then maybe writing some covered calls a year out. It's a process, and that would still leave my stock portfolio with 50% or more in AAPL, which most advisors would think to be absolutely insane. But that would make things much lower risk, while also allowing me to lock in some larger dividends if wanted. While I don't think AAPL has followed the exact path of any other stock, I do think there have been timeframes where it has behaved similarly to others. For instance, as AAPL moved from a market cap matching XOM to being 50% greater, the P/E continued to drop. But it also gave me the idea that even in the worst times for the stock, the floor shouldn't be much below 10, and it wasn't. Current 9 month price appreciation has shown that the stock still has some great legs. But it's worth learning from other companies that things are never going back to the sprint or mid-distance races...though as with Apple, there are still new records being set at the marathon distance too! Thanks all! I hope your strategy works out well for you. All I know is, when AAPL closed at $153.01 today, the value of our AAPL stock was 6.15 X the value it was when I retired on 05/19/08 and I'm not confident or knowledgable enough about the market to try to improve on that return. We've held through the three major pullbacks in share price since 2008 and each time, AAPL has rebounded nicely. When Apple restarted the dividend program in August of 2012, they made a good thing even better as far as we're concerned and this was another *great* day to be holding AAPL for long term. Cheers to the AAPL Longs!! Thanks Lucky You know, it all works out to different valuations, and different points in your life. AAPL has performed so well for us that for many investments, we could live ok off of just half of our portfolio. But, we'd still have worries, monetarily or psychologically, if our portfolio stayed as it was and had another 70+% downturn. While that is somewhat unlikely since we have taken other steps to mitigate risk (minimized options, and kept margin at a manageable percentage), the next step really is to finally sell down some AAPL shares. At that point, if we can live off of our non-AAPL investments, then we can also enjoy the fruits of any continued run in AAPL. OTOH, mitigating risk also mitigates potential gain. Selling shares a little less than 7 years ago to buy this house, while helping diversify, also meant we lost out on gains since then. In this particular timeframe, while the house is getting close to doubling, AAPL has done much better. 142? 138? It was something like that, then. But before a 7x split. Now, if we were living comfortably off of 10 to 25% of our portfolio, maybe I would just let it ride as is. At some point, whether with stock or a house, the long term financial goal becomes figuring out a way to efficiently pass along most of it to charities or future generations. We're not there yet, though I probably do think too much about if we want to move back to CA at some point for in-state UC tuition. At current rates, the differential is $302k if our 3 kids each graduated in 4 years. That's enough to make one consider moving back, whether it's staying in the Basin and only moving 5-35 miles, or if it's moving down to more fertile lands of Sac, the Bay Area, or even So-Cal. I'm sure we'll continue holding AAPL for a long time to come, and it sure is nice to hold so many shares on a nice up-day like today....like I'm sure it was for you today. But it is time for us to partially divest, preferably before the next hiccup, which while I don't see on the near-term horizon we have learned that it is always out there and often has a way to sneak up on you.
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Post by Luckychoices on May 9, 2017 12:51:44 GMT -8
I hope your strategy works out well for you. All I know is, when AAPL closed at $153.01 today, the value of our AAPL stock was 6.15 X the value it was when I retired on 05/19/08 and I'm not confident or knowledgable enough about the market to try to improve on that return. We've held through the three major pullbacks in share price since 2008 and each time, AAPL has rebounded nicely. When Apple restarted the dividend program in August of 2012, they made a good thing even better as far as we're concerned and this was another *great* day to be holding AAPL for long term. Cheers to the AAPL Longs!! Thanks Lucky You know, it all works out to different valuations, and different points in your life. AAPL has performed so well for us that for many investments, we could live ok off of just half of our portfolio. But, we'd still have worries, monetarily or psychologically, if our portfolio stayed as it was and had another 70+% downturn. While that is somewhat unlikely since we have taken other steps to mitigate risk (minimized options, and kept margin at a manageable percentage), the next step really is to finally sell down some AAPL shares. At that point, if we can live off of our non-AAPL investments, then we can also enjoy the fruits of any continued run in AAPL. OTOH, mitigating risk also mitigates potential gain. Selling shares a little less than 7 years ago to buy this house, while helping diversify, also meant we lost out on gains since then. In this particular timeframe, while the house is getting close to doubling, AAPL has done much better. 142? 138? It was something like that, then. But before a 7x split. Now, if we were living comfortably off of 10 to 25% of our portfolio, maybe I would just let it ride as is. At some point, whether with stock or a house, the long term financial goal becomes figuring out a way to efficiently pass along most of it to charities or future generations. We're not there yet, though I probably do think too much about if we want to move back to CA at some point for in-state UC tuition. At current rates, the differential is $302k if our 3 kids each graduated in 4 years. That's enough to make one consider moving back, whether it's staying in the Basin and only moving 5-35 miles, or if it's moving down to more fertile lands of Sac, the Bay Area, or even So-Cal. I'm sure we'll continue holding AAPL for a long time to come, and it sure is nice to hold so many shares on a nice up-day like today....like I'm sure it was for you today. But it is time for us to partially divest, preferably before the next hiccup, which while I don't see on the near-term horizon we have learned that it is always out there and often has a way to sneak up on you. I'm *very much* older than you so it makes sense that we would have much different financial requirements, especially when it comes to considering risk. My two sons are in their forties so their college years are long past, but I certainly understand and commend you for planning for the years when college tuition will need to be paid. In any case, you've obviously given considerable thought to your financial plans_so you’ve done much better than most people. Best of luck to you in all your investments and I hope to meet you if you travel to Apple Park next year for the shareholders meeting.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,649
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Post by 4aapl on May 9, 2017 14:08:48 GMT -8
I'm *very much* older than you so it makes sense that we would have much different financial requirements, especially when it comes to considering risk. My two sons are in their forties so their college years are long past, but I certainly understand and commend you for planning for the years when college tuition will need to be paid. In any case, you've obviously given considerable thought to your financial plans_so you’ve done much better than most people. Best of luck to you in all your investments and I hope to meet you if you travel to Apple Park next year for the shareholders meeting. Agreed. A couple years before my Grandma passed away at 96, she pulled out her quarterly report for her investments. She lived most of her life in Seattle, and was so proud that she had bought Microsoft back when it was small, and it had done so well. I kept any negative thoughts about MS and the stock's performance in the past decade inside. It had done well for her, and fit her needs, even if it hadn't continued like it once did. A few years ago I met the CEO of Property Radar at a Halloween party. We enjoyed our talk, and I followed up with him. 6 months later I talked with him at length while interviewing for a job. When it got around to benefits, he let me know they didn't do 401k matching since that was normally tied to stocks, and after being crushed in the crash in 2000 (being a higher level person in a tech company), he didn't believe in stocks. All of his investments were in real estate. Each path of experiences shapes a person, but it's also worthwhile to not get too complacent. AAPL has paid off very well for us. Like you, it has multiplied every dollar we put in. Of course I wish I could have put in 10 times my initial investment back in early January of 1998, but then I'd have to deal with docking a yacht somewhere, and all the hassles that would accompany that. Sadly I haven't made it to a shareholder meeting in over a decade, but I'd like to make it down to go to one in the next few years, and see the new campus. It is during ski season, and I might even become a paid instructor one of these years, so no promises on making it next year. But maybe, if 80 manages to stay open and there's a bad week of skiing.
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