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Post by lance on Nov 27, 2012 7:31:06 GMT -8
How is the beta value determined for stocks? AAPL appears to consistently overplay the market reaction by say 1-1.5% in either direction yet we have a relatively low beta. On yahoo finance it says the beta is 0.91 and google finance is 1.21. Does anyone know what the real beta is for this stock?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 27, 2012 7:33:41 GMT -8
My daughter just swapped her crappy Motorola droid plus for an iPhone 5. She had wanted the physical keyboard ( big texter). Two days later she is not looking back. She just wanted back in the house. ;D LOL, yes I won't quietly frown anymore when she pulls out a phone (ubiquitous). I'd like to see a little buying interest here...we have burned off the hot money profit takers I hope....
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 27, 2012 7:43:02 GMT -8
I know I am tired of seeing that upper BB crashing down. I would much prefer AAPL push it up rather than it continue its downward march. The bands are going to narrow in a hurry for the next week or so.
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Post by appledoc on Nov 27, 2012 7:47:14 GMT -8
We moved up more than 3% yesterday against a market that didn't move. This isn't surprising.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 27, 2012 7:56:42 GMT -8
We moved up more than 3% yesterday against a market that didn't move. This isn't surprising. Agree, and to be honest after looking at several different time frames, looks to be quite healthy. Had gotten to some pretty high levels for certain data points. It is to be expected when you move up $85 in a week to take a little breather. (As long as that is all we are doing, I need up, still looking for the other shoe.)
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Post by gtrplyr on Nov 27, 2012 7:57:26 GMT -8
CNBC is about to air a report that Siri will be in two of GM's smaller cars.
First I've heard about auto makers actually integrating Apple's OS .... very interesting.
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Post by terps530 on Nov 27, 2012 7:58:58 GMT -8
my feeling says we go climb up to test that 592 again today but I don't have any free funds to put my money where my mouth is. I guess I'll make a funnymoney bet on a weekly 590 call at 4.50 with a goal to sell at 7.00. Let's see how completely off I am once I post this.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 27, 2012 8:04:53 GMT -8
my feeling says we go climb up to test that 592 again today but I don't have any free funds to put my money where my mouth is. I guess I'll make a funnymoney bet on a weekly 590 call at 4.50 with a goal to sell at 7.00. Let's see how completely off I am once I post this. Although I do not share your optimism for today, I would not bet the other way. I am still in "along for the ride" mode. Still trying to recover from the crumbles.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 27, 2012 8:16:05 GMT -8
"all levels of means and objectives and all (disciplined) approaches to investing and trading AAPL are welcome here."
Mav, I hope I didn't say anything to the contrary of your remark from the end of yesterday. I've always felt it didn't matter if you were buying 1 or 100,000 spreads. Aside from commission costs, both would be looking for the same outcome, of xx% return if the stock is at YYY at expiration.
IMO, people shouldn't bet the farm, whether a small farm or a large farm, on one strike or expiration. But just as risk levels vary, it's likely that not all people here are gunning for the same levels, even if most (all of us that are bullish) of us would be happy if AAPL gained more than we expected. Afterall, many have common stock too, and it's great to see Apple and AAPL continue to succeed.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 27, 2012 8:16:14 GMT -8
Intraday note:
Smooshed between SMA-20 and SMA-50 on the 5 min chart. Break above SMA-50 and resume up, IMHO. Below SMA-20 resumes down.
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Post by bribery on Nov 27, 2012 8:19:14 GMT -8
Hi Ipad, Could you please explain how to properly visualize the SMA? I can plot it in google but it looks totally different depending on the time span of the chart.
Thank you!
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 27, 2012 8:21:13 GMT -8
We've only given up (retraced) a touch over 23.6% of the move from 554-ish and 14.6% of the move from 519-ish. IMHO, so far, so bullish. Lose SMA-20 on the 5, and I might change my tune -- short-term!! -- a bit...
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 27, 2012 8:23:38 GMT -8
Hi Ipad, Could you please explain how to properly visualize the SMA? I can plot it in google but it looks totally different depending on the time span of the chart. Thank you! It *is* totally different depending on the timeframe. You can zoom in and out depending on how big/small picture you want. For intraday, 5-min is my fav (though I watch *all* of them). This is from Freestockcharts.com. If you want my FSC template, PM me with your email. AAPL INTRADAY 5-MIN CHART:
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Nov 27, 2012 8:28:55 GMT -8
Does anyone have link/date to when apple will be able to have mini contract options?? Could be big for someone like me who doesn't have enough capital to do spreads/sell calls and options
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Post by appledoc on Nov 27, 2012 8:49:08 GMT -8
Does anyone have link/date to when apple will be able to have mini contract options?? Could be big for someone like me who doesn't have enough capital to do spreads/sell calls and options It's going to be March 18.
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Post by terps530 on Nov 27, 2012 8:49:10 GMT -8
Does anyone have link/date to when apple will be able to have mini contract options?? Could be big for someone like me who doesn't have enough capital to do spreads/sell calls and options googled mini options. It says the date they are launching is March 18th 2013.
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Post by artman1033 on Nov 27, 2012 8:49:47 GMT -8
Does anyone have link/date to when apple will be able to have mini contract options?? Could be big for someone like me who doesn't have enough capital to do spreads/sell calls and options For goodness sake! My Advice in the past: NEW TO OPTIONS? Paper trade for a year until you can "convince yourself" you understand options. The same applies to mini options. Mini option contracts will enable hundreds of younger lambs to be slaughtered by the MMs and THE EOs. I will be paper trading the mini option contracts until I THINK I understand their action on the market. Please DYODD. I have only been following AAPL since 2007 and have been trading options since March 6th, 2009.
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Nov 27, 2012 8:54:40 GMT -8
I agree and I have been both paper trading and trading options... their action will be like normal options. except 1/10th the size
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Mav
Member
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Post by Mav on Nov 27, 2012 8:58:57 GMT -8
Hm.
Well, trying this one again with Feb 12s and a Jul 12 BCS with B/E of low 560s.
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Post by appledoc on Nov 27, 2012 9:02:29 GMT -8
I won't be messing with the mini options out of the gate. Just like I'm not messing with the extra weeklies that just got added. Low volume scares me.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 27, 2012 9:03:30 GMT -8
SQUEEZE!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Post by artman1033 on Nov 27, 2012 9:04:20 GMT -8
In a very sad note, I am sorry to announce that millions of children will not be getting their gPhone or gPod under the Christmas tree. HERE
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Post by rickag on Nov 27, 2012 9:14:24 GMT -8
I probably did something stupid, but Avi's Elliot Wave analysis convinced me to pull some cash out of my 3 Jan 13 610/640 BCSs. I bought back the 640 shorts and sold 620s to create 3 Jan 13 610/620 BCSs. This gave me ~$1488 net after the fees. The original spread cost was ~$2628, so the 3 Jan 13 610/620 BCSs cost me ~$1140. I feel better, safer BCS plus some cash if Avi's worst case scenario happens.
When AAPL shoots up another 3% today, making my trade look stupid you all can thank me.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 27, 2012 9:27:39 GMT -8
I won't be messing with the mini options out of the gate. Just like I'm not messing with the extra weeklies that just got added. Low volume scares me. The extra weeklies are just like weeklies, but you can purchase them sooner. Similar to quarterlies and leaps....the same thing, just available sooner. OTOH, with the mini's, the question is how well the pricing is going to match the normal options. There might be some arbitrage opportunities, or more likely there might be some pitfalls to watch out for. A wider bid/ask spread, with less willingness to meet in the middle, could bilk people using the minis. Shaving a little on both sides of the trade gives the big boys even more of a reason to be happy to sell the minis to willing buyers.
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Post by doublerainbow on Nov 27, 2012 9:43:39 GMT -8
loving this price action so far, more clearance for up (:
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Mav
Member
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Nov 27, 2012 9:44:30 GMT -8
Whoa, _something's_ happening here...
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Post by doublerainbow on Nov 27, 2012 9:45:41 GMT -8
Whoa, _something's_ happening here... they're back from lunch!
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Post by Ultrarunner on Nov 27, 2012 9:45:55 GMT -8
I don't know if this was the cause, but AAPL jumped $4 just after speculation on the possibility of a special dividend on Fast Money was discussed.
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Post by Zeke on Nov 27, 2012 9:48:58 GMT -8
ooooh! Nice job TIMMY! What a logistics genius....... introduced on October 23rd...... shipped November 30th.... You know, until you've been inside the pressure cooker and fielded a few insurmountable problems you really can't make intelligent judgments about how other people are doing things. The corporation I worked for once had about 30,000 brand new smart electric meters that they bought as part of a 1 million meter order from a manufacturer that were overcharging customers because the metrology circuits were contaminated, and in wet weather they registered high voltage. The problem was traced to a shift worker making $8 per day in a Mexican factory that produced the meters. He forgot to change out the wash water in the final circuit board cleaning operation equipment for a few days. Was that our CEO's fault?
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 27, 2012 9:56:29 GMT -8
I probably did something stupid, but Avi's Elliot Wave analysis convinced me to pull some cash out of my 3 Jan 13 610/640 BCSs. I bought back the 640 shorts and sold 620s to create 3 Jan 13 610/620 BCSs. This gave me ~$1488 net after the fees. The original spread cost was ~$2628, so the 3 Jan 13 610/620 BCSs cost me ~$1140. I feel better, safer BCS plus some cash if Avi's worst case scenario happens. When AAPL shoots up another 3% today, making my trade look stupid you all can thank me. Consider putting *some* of the proceeds into JAN'14 800/850s...
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