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Post by dreamRaj on Feb 16, 2018 14:39:25 GMT -8
What a comeback! Today is exactly where we should have/could have/would have been on Feb 2nd if things were normal. But I have to say, we will remember this CRAZY WILD RIDE all our lives! Never seen the markets so volatile. Here's hoping that AAPL and the Dow continue to rise to new highs... sooner than later Cheers!
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Post by dreamRaj on Feb 16, 2018 15:04:46 GMT -8
Here's one of the last messages on today's intraday thread. ICYMI, do read the link included by BillH. I'm reposting it because it seems like a conversation starter.
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CdnPhoto
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Post by CdnPhoto on Feb 16, 2018 16:11:27 GMT -8
HP offering Apple devices on subscription basis.One time top PC seller, now selling Apple devices. Add to that IBM is also promoting and selling Apple products, and you see how the tide has really turned, including in the corporate environment.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Feb 16, 2018 16:27:30 GMT -8
Reposting from the daily thread, now that the discussion has moved: What would you like to know Chinacat about Apple Park? Really, just about anything, for example: Compared to the view from the drone flyovers, how does the scale of, e.g., the "Spaceship" strike one in person? Do the underground parking garages appear to be in use? I'm assuming the meeting was in the Visitor Center; what are your impressions of it? What percentage complete would you estimate the site to be? Obviously, the plantings will continue to grow, but other than that, what remains to be finished? Any other observations or things that were different than you expected would be welcomed. On behalf of those of us who will likely not be getting there any time soon, any other impressions from you or any other AFBers who attended would be of interest. Thank you for your consideration.
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Post by Volvocoupe on Feb 16, 2018 18:16:19 GMT -8
Reposting from the daily thread, now that the discussion has moved: What would you like to know Chinacat about Apple Park? Really, just about anything, for example: Compared to the view from the drone flyovers, how does the scale of, e.g., the "Spaceship" strike one in person? Do the underground parking garages appear to be in use? I'm assuming the meeting was in the Visitor Center; what are your impressions of it? What percentage complete would you estimate the site to be? Obviously, the plantings will continue to grow, but other than that, what remains to be finished? Any other observations or things that were different than you expected would be welcomed. On behalf of those of us who will likely not be getting there any time soon, any other impressions from you or any other AFBers who attended would be of interest. Thank you for your consideration. I posted my reply on the daily thread Chinacat
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ono
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Post by ono on Feb 16, 2018 18:56:01 GMT -8
Re: seekingalpha.com/article/4143424-apple-returning-750-billion-shareholders?page=2 and its string of 180+ comments; many strongly in favor of buybacks, and many strongly against. I earlier commented here that I preferred stock buybacks over dividends. Having read some good articles about buy backs, I'm now comfortable with the author's premise of roughly evenly splitting the $163b net cash into a big dividend increase (not a one-time special dividend), and buybacks. I'll pay the low long-term tax rate on my Qualified dividends, and defer taxes as the share value increases. I think Warren Buffet sees AAPL as a growth investment with a now unbridled shareholder friendly plan to return lots of cash. Like IBM that he rotated out of, but with growth prospects. Apple, knowing what it knows, should distribute optimally. They've a pretty nice track record buying back shares at low prices (about 68% of capital return program). They're likely to be even more artful, buying closer to the bottoms. I'm thinking Apple will approve a very, very, large buyback (more than the author's premised $84b); still exercising part of it on a schedule, and hopefully a greater part of it on opportunistic share-price pull-backs into very low P/E values. The dry powder ought to put a floor on extent and duration of share price swan dives. They may not (need to) spend the amount approved, and instead later increase dividends at maybe 15% a year, rather than 10% that they may start out with over the next three years. Buybacks: - A retrospection shows a lot of companies have wasted shareholder's profits via buybacks. It's really difficult to maximize shareholder value. - They're good for public shareholders, when P/E is low, P/E as proxy for a good IRR. ("Low" is debated but generally accepted as P/E under 15, "somewhat low" as P/E <20+**). - They can be good for management (meeting/manipulating EPS targets for bonuses*), yet not be good for public shareholders (focus being distracted from EPS improvements through earnings growth from revenue growth, margin improvements, and new products or businesses). I'm now more comfortable with a big upfront 50% increase in the dividend, and a steady 10% increases later. www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/how-share-repurchases-boost-earnings-without-improving-returnswww.investopedia.com/articles/financial-advisors/121415/stock-buybacks-good-thing-or-not.aspww2.cfo.com/strategy/2011/06/whats-your-return-on-buybacks/www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2011/05/stockmarkets_0*I need to spend time looking into executive's financial goals; if the target is increased Earnings Per Share (caution), or total return to shareholders (TRS). I'm guessing they're aligned with us public shareholders. I recall reading that employees are paid dividends on their unvested RSU and older option shares, so they share in the benefit from both dividends and share price appreciation. Likely many employees are paying their mortgages with dividends. ** I'm looking for source that I read.
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Post by appledoc on Feb 16, 2018 19:29:30 GMT -8
I went to 50% cash today. But kept all my AAPL.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Feb 17, 2018 7:42:31 GMT -8
I posted my reply on the daily thread Chinacat Thank you very much! Sounds like it is still very early days, and another visit next year will be well worth it. ;-)
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 17, 2018 11:41:09 GMT -8
I went to 50% cash today. But kept all my AAPL. Why? I guess I see the economy firing on all cylinders, which then helps companies, and gives higher earnings. Some people get worried about increasing interest rates, but they are so amazingly low now compared to historic prices that this is just barely getting them on the board. I'm paying 1.75% for margin....so basically breakeven with dividends. And this is the time to raise interest rates, slowly....unlike having half or more of the increases after the peaks (2007, and I believe 2001 too). Another person was worried about Mueller? spilling the beans on everything and causing a collapse. He said to buy puts now! I think that's just a wall of worry type thing, where even if something goes sour, in the grand scheme of things it's small potatoes. And then there's the worry that this is the tippy top. I just don't see the irrational exuberance that 2001 and 2007 had. Or that bitcoin had, a month and a half ago. That's a reminder of what irrational exuberance really is like. While I don't see a reason to be worried too much right now, I also don't want to be T-boned by an Amtrak train. What's making you go to 50% cash, AppleDoc? Is this a long term thing, or just short term trying to have some funds for a 3% aftershock drop?
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Post by appledoc on Feb 17, 2018 14:53:15 GMT -8
I went to 50% cash today. But kept all my AAPL. Why? I guess I see the economy firing on all cylinders, which then helps companies, and gives higher earnings. Some people get worried about increasing interest rates, but they are so amazingly low now compared to historic prices that this is just barely getting them on the board. I'm paying 1.75% for margin....so basically breakeven with dividends. And this is the time to raise interest rates, slowly....unlike having half or more of the increases after the peaks (2007, and I believe 2001 too). Another person was worried about Mueller? spilling the beans on everything and causing a collapse. He said to buy puts now! I think that's just a wall of worry type thing, where even if something goes sour, in the grand scheme of things it's small potatoes. And then there's the worry that this is the tippy top. I just don't see the irrational exuberance that 2001 and 2007 had. Or that bitcoin had, a month and a half ago. That's a reminder of what irrational exuberance really is like. While I don't see a reason to be worried too much right now, I also don't want to be T-boned by an Amtrak train. What's making you go to 50% cash, AppleDoc? Is this a long term thing, or just short term trying to have some funds for a 3% aftershock drop? I agree with you. Economic data is good. Earnings are good. Everything seems good. But I've been here before, and there's no worse feeling to me than having to sit on the sidelines during a downturn without any cash reserves. When the selloff happened last week, I had less than 10% cash. I commented on the 5th that the RSI for AAPL was at the lowest I could see in a decade. Those should be all-in moments, but I couldn't do much because I didn't have any cash. So I waited for the rebound, hit my target on the SPY on Friday, and sold off some of my positions. This has the feelings of a temporary top in the market. Huge run up in January that broke the trend line. Swift correction to start February. And a sucker's rebound this past week. I might be wrong. But I'd rather be cash neutral during an uptrend than have zero cash during a downtrend.
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Post by Ken on Feb 17, 2018 15:09:12 GMT -8
I went to 50% cash today. But kept all my AAPL. Why? I guess I see the economy firing on all cylinders, which then helps companies, and gives higher earnings. Some people get worried about increasing interest rates, but they are so amazingly low now compared to historic prices that this is just barely getting them on the board. I'm paying 1.75% for margin....so basically breakeven with dividends. And this is the time to raise interest rates, slowly....unlike having half or more of the increases after the peaks (2007, and I believe 2001 too). Where are you getting 1.75% for margin, please?
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Post by aapltini on Feb 17, 2018 16:29:17 GMT -8
You took the words out of my mouth. Please share.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 17, 2018 18:43:20 GMT -8
Why? I guess I see the economy firing on all cylinders, which then helps companies, and gives higher earnings. Some people get worried about increasing interest rates, but they are so amazingly low now compared to historic prices that this is just barely getting them on the board. I'm paying 1.75% for margin....so basically breakeven with dividends. And this is the time to raise interest rates, slowly....unlike having half or more of the increases after the peaks (2007, and I believe 2001 too). Where are you getting 1.75% for margin, please? 8 years ago or so I was about ready to switch to Interactive Brokers, because they had some insanely low margin rates. While I was borrowing less at the time, I had borrowed a lot previously, in the $500k-$1M range. Enough that a couple percent difference in rates added up. I've been with TDAmeritrade now for over 2 decades, and over that timeframe as their levels for special status lowered and my account grew, I somewhere along the way hit APEX level. A neighbor was given golf clubs and things like that, so apparently I wasn't that special, but that was back in the hey day, and he was probably sending in large chunks of money. Anyway, they called one time, probably worried about me transferring a little money when we bought our minivan or something. I mentioned that I was looking at switching due to the margin rates, and they matched IB's. For January it was 2.00%, so it looks like the Fed Funds rate plus .5%. Its really low, and I have to remind myself to not hang myself by using too much of it. Speaking from experience, margin calls are a very bad thing, forcing you to sell out when things are bad, instead of holding through. For instance, selling out a lot of AAPL back in Sept/Oct 2000 (forced margin call, they even sold my one share of Pixar I was holding onto), and selling out 5k of shares at $95 (yeah, that's pre-split, so about $13.60 a share) in ~2007-2008 when the stock fell (from $160?). Our accounts weren't that big when they gave us this lower rate. If you've been with a broker for a bit, and want a lower rate, talk to them and see. Do your research first to know what's out there. They might not fully match it, but if they like you as a customer, they should at least get partially there. But again, watch yourself on margin. I've been borrowing for most of 20 years. While it's done well at times, it's also contributed majorly to those 85% portfolio losses that I've had 2 or 3 times. Due to that, my default is to tell people to not borrow. At the same time, it is a tool, and allowed me to pick up a good sized chunk of SPY a week and a half ago. Other than that, we're just offsetting mortgages, borrowing 80% of the value of our properties via margin instead of a traditional mortgage. That could still be a big problem in a market downturn, so we have a home equity line of credit set up that we could utilize to switch from margin. But that rate is something like 2.5% higher, so it's not as ideal. Unlike our recent SPY purchase, our goal is to shrink our margin down, but then be able to utilize it on market corrections or crashes. As such, I see it as a tool. But again, my default is to recommend against using margin. Give your broker a call. A 5-15 minute call could save you a lot. (IB is still offering great rates to everyone, for example currently 2.42% for margin in the $100k to $1M bracket or 1.92% for the bracket above that (Benchmark rate plus 1% or .5% respectively))
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 17, 2018 23:28:09 GMT -8
Why? I guess I see the economy firing on all cylinders, which then helps companies, and gives higher earnings. Some people get worried about increasing interest rates, but they are so amazingly low now compared to historic prices that this is just barely getting them on the board. I'm paying 1.75% for margin....so basically breakeven with dividends. And this is the time to raise interest rates, slowly....unlike having half or more of the increases after the peaks (2007, and I believe 2001 too). Another person was worried about Mueller? spilling the beans on everything and causing a collapse. He said to buy puts now! I think that's just a wall of worry type thing, where even if something goes sour, in the grand scheme of things it's small potatoes. And then there's the worry that this is the tippy top. I just don't see the irrational exuberance that 2001 and 2007 had. Or that bitcoin had, a month and a half ago. That's a reminder of what irrational exuberance really is like. While I don't see a reason to be worried too much right now, I also don't want to be T-boned by an Amtrak train. What's making you go to 50% cash, AppleDoc? Is this a long term thing, or just short term trying to have some funds for a 3% aftershock drop? I agree with you. Economic data is good. Earnings are good. Everything seems good. But I've been here before, and there's no worse feeling to me than having to sit on the sidelines during a downturn without any cash reserves. When the selloff happened last week, I had less than 10% cash. I commented on the 5th that the RSI for AAPL was at the lowest I could see in a decade. Those should be all-in moments, but I couldn't do much because I didn't have any cash. So I waited for the rebound, hit my target on the SPY on Friday, and sold off some of my positions. This has the feelings of a temporary top in the market. Huge run up in January that broke the trend line. Swift correction to start February. And a sucker's rebound this past week. I might be wrong. But I'd rather be cash neutral during an uptrend than have zero cash during a downtrend. I can understand that feeling, even if I don't agree with it. If you have something that works over time, that's great. In general I don't feel I can time the market, and agree with those that say the longer you are in the market, the better. I know I had to get out partially back in ~2008, and was late getting fully back in so missed out. One of Ken Fisher's guys came and talked to me 7 years ago or so, and I liked their strategy. Instead of trying to shoot to the moon, they aimed to beat the market (or whatever their benchmark) by a few percent. Even just beating by a couple percent, it adds up considerably over time. They aimed for this by mainly just being in their benchmark, but underweighting the industry they thought would do worst, and overweighting the one they thought would do best. And by aiming to only beat the benchmark by a couple percent, they also see their downside as only potentially losing to the benchmark by a couple percent if things go wrong. Maybe that is simplifying their strategy, but that's what I got from it, and from reading most of Ken's books (which I also really like, and wish he'd write more though it could very well be that he feels he's already covered everything). With that sort of idea, I've felt that a strategy I can live with is generally being 100% invested, but willing to push it up to 110% via margin when recovering from a crash. With this correcting, I'm expanding that theory a bit to include other strategic times. Of course that's more risk, but from what I've seen over the past 21 years, it's often easier to see a recovery than it is to see a decline, especially if you're not trying to hit the absolute bottom (or top). If I can make a little extra off of a fairly good opportunity, even if it's years or even a decade apart, that's still beating the street by a little. There's lots of things that work for different people. But that's a fairly boring and low risk one I can live with at this point in my investing life. Now I just need to follow that strategy...
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Post by Volvocoupe on Feb 18, 2018 11:33:31 GMT -8
I posted my reply on the daily thread Chinacat Thank you very much! Sounds like it is still very early days, and another visit next year will be well worth it. ;-) You are most welcome 🙏
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Feb 18, 2018 14:58:43 GMT -8
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CdnPhoto
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Post by CdnPhoto on Feb 18, 2018 18:17:30 GMT -8
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Post by rickag on Feb 19, 2018 6:47:13 GMT -8
I agree with you. Economic data is good. Earnings are good. Everything seems good. But I've been here before, and there's no worse feeling to me than having to sit on the sidelines during a downturn without any cash reserves. When the selloff happened last week, I had less than 10% cash. I commented on the 5th that the RSI for AAPL was at the lowest I could see in a decade. Those should be all-in moments, but I couldn't do much because I didn't have any cash. So I waited for the rebound, hit my target on the SPY on Friday, and sold off some of my positions. This has the feelings of a temporary top in the market. Huge run up in January that broke the trend line. Swift correction to start February. And a sucker's rebound this past week. I might be wrong. But I'd rather be cash neutral during an uptrend than have zero cash during a downtrend. I can understand that feeling, even if I don't agree with it. If you have something that works over time, that's great. In general I don't feel I can time the market, and agree with those that say the longer you are in the market, the better. I know I had to get out partially back in ~2008, and was late getting fully back in so missed out. One of Ken Fisher's guys came and talked to me 7 years ago or so, and I liked their strategy. Instead of trying to shoot to the moon, they aimed to beat the market (or whatever their benchmark) by a few percent. Even just beating by a couple percent, it adds up considerably over time. They aimed for this by mainly just being in their benchmark, but underweighting the industry they thought would do worst, and overweighting the one they thought would do best. And by aiming to only beat the benchmark by a couple percent, they also see their downside as only potentially losing to the benchmark by a couple percent if things go wrong. Maybe that is simplifying their strategy, but that's what I got from it, and from reading most of Ken's books (which I also really like, and wish he'd write more though it could very well be that he feels he's already covered everything). With that sort of idea, I've felt that a strategy I can live with is generally being 100% invested, but willing to push it up to 110% via margin when recovering from a crash. With this correcting, I'm expanding that theory a bit to include other strategic times. Of course that's more risk, but from what I've seen over the past 21 years, it's often easier to see a recovery than it is to see a decline, especially if you're not trying to hit the absolute bottom (or top). If I can make a little extra off of a fairly good opportunity, even if it's years or even a decade apart, that's still beating the street by a little. There's lots of things that work for different people. But that's a fairly boring and low risk one I can live with at this point in my investing life. Now I just need to follow that strategy... I have spoken with Fisher Investments recently, but haven’t found anyone with any experience with them. Do you or anyone else have any thoughts on using Fisher Investments?
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Post by northstar on Feb 19, 2018 7:10:56 GMT -8
"A lie can travel half way around the world before the truth has a chance to put it's shoes on" - Mark Twain
While the sentiment is indeed accurate I think Mark Twain would spin in his grave if that apostrophe was attributed to him...!
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 19, 2018 7:50:41 GMT -8
I can understand that feeling, even if I don't agree with it. If you have something that works over time, that's great. In general I don't feel I can time the market, and agree with those that say the longer you are in the market, the better. I know I had to get out partially back in ~2008, and was late getting fully back in so missed out. One of Ken Fisher's guys came and talked to me 7 years ago or so, and I liked their strategy. Instead of trying to shoot to the moon, they aimed to beat the market (or whatever their benchmark) by a few percent. Even just beating by a couple percent, it adds up considerably over time. They aimed for this by mainly just being in their benchmark, but underweighting the industry they thought would do worst, and overweighting the one they thought would do best. And by aiming to only beat the benchmark by a couple percent, they also see their downside as only potentially losing to the benchmark by a couple percent if things go wrong. Maybe that is simplifying their strategy, but that's what I got from it, and from reading most of Ken's books (which I also really like, and wish he'd write more though it could very well be that he feels he's already covered everything). With that sort of idea, I've felt that a strategy I can live with is generally being 100% invested, but willing to push it up to 110% via margin when recovering from a crash. With this correcting, I'm expanding that theory a bit to include other strategic times. Of course that's more risk, but from what I've seen over the past 21 years, it's often easier to see a recovery than it is to see a decline, especially if you're not trying to hit the absolute bottom (or top). If I can make a little extra off of a fairly good opportunity, even if it's years or even a decade apart, that's still beating the street by a little. There's lots of things that work for different people. But that's a fairly boring and low risk one I can live with at this point in my investing life. Now I just need to follow that strategy... I have spoken with Fisher Investments recently, but haven’t found anyone with any experience with them. Do you or anyone else have any thoughts on using Fisher Investments? Someone on the Retire Early board (ages ago, 10+ years) at TMF was using them. I like what I've read from them (some of the quarterly reports) and liked what I heard from the guy (maybe 6 years ago). I guess the question in my mind is if their fee (relatively low I believe) is worth what you get from them. For me, it was going to be "peace of mind", putting a chunk with them and basically considering it diversification. But I haven't, and we're at a level now where I likely won't, since we can just put money into something generic like SPY and be happy. I don't mind keeping an eye on the market and am generally not going to do the wrong thing like sell out in fear on a correction. That said, they were looking at the global market which I don't worry about, and I'll probably talk to them again and rethink it.
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ono
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Post by ono on Feb 19, 2018 9:47:22 GMT -8
An update to my previous post: Employee are paid dividends only when their RSU vest, until then the dividends are accumulated. "Dividend equivalents are accumulated and paid when the underlying shares vest" As to whether Apple execs might be tempted to game EPS by share buybacks, no. www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000119312516422528/d79474ddef14a.htm#toc79474_21Pages starting at 24, and page 28 in particular: Net sales and operating income, as determined in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles, were chosen as the performance measures for the 2015 annual cash incentive opportunity because they reflect commonly recognized measures of overall company performance and are associated with shareholder value creation. Performance Measure (Weighting) Net Sales (50%) Operating Income (50%) Total Shareholder Return The performance-based RSUs granted to our named executive officers vest according to the applicable vesting schedules described below, depending on Apple's total shareholder return relative to the other companies in the S&P 500 for the applicable performance period ("Relative TSR"). The Compensation Committee chose Relative TSR as a straightforward and objective metric for Apple's shareholders to evaluate our performance against the performance of other companies and to align with shareholders' interests.
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Post by rickag on Feb 19, 2018 10:28:14 GMT -8
4aapl Thank you for the reply, much appreciated.
For me the fee is higher than what I currently pay.
Fisher Investments quoted me 1.25% up to $1 million and prorated to 1.125% up to $2 million. -the investor is also responsible for brokerage fees for selling & buying stocks currently $4.95 per transaction. I currently am paying 0.65 - 0.85% on my mutual funds.(my advisor takes 0.25% out of those fees). I have 0 upfront fees for claseA shares & no fees for moving from fund to fund as long as I stay within the fund family(re: American Funds).
What appeals to me is Fisher actively manages a portfolio of international stocks. They will turn to defensive stock positions in a downturn in the markets and will turn to cash positions in a bear market. If I remember correctly from our meetings, during the 2008 crash they had clients go to up to 50% cash, resulting in beating the markets by 30%. I also like the fact that they assign you a portfolio manager who is in constant contact, they have regular meetings with clients and also sponsor dinners for clients to meet and discuss with each other their investments. They also take into account social security, likely medical expenses, taxes, etc. in helping decide on how to receive dispersements.
I also have ~ 5% of our retirement in an ETrade account I am dabbling in dividend paying stocks. (re: I subscribe to Simply Safe Dividends & Morning Star)
I haven’t made a decision, this is all very scary stuff for me as my retirement is solely dependent on my investments and social security. No pensions like my parents had as my dad retired from the military.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Feb 19, 2018 10:38:54 GMT -8
Good morning all. Back from California and ready to reinvest the dividend. Unfortunately someone ran AAPL up a bit much. Noting last weeks gap, I put a limit order in at 167.50. My experience is it will execute. Eventually. For the sake of all we'll hope for a quick bounce. There was a fair amount of timely discussion of the Annual Meeting and Apple Park, but here are a few observations. The meeting itself was quite different than other annual meetings I've attended. It was broken into two parts, the business meeting conducted by the new Chief Counsel and a Q&A session with Tim. The business meeting was poorly run. Many off topic questions were allowed that ate the time. The Q&A was interesting. Tim called on questioners randomly in the audience. The questions were interesting. Tim handled them well. Apple Park is beautiful. It is shame they do not give tours. [One of the questions, no, for security/confidentiality]. Incidentally, security at the meeting was very tight -- metal detectors, bomb sniffing dogs and many LEO's of various agencies. Here are a few pictures...
The metal Detectors with the Spaceship behind
The walk to the Steve Jobs auditorium
The Spaceship from the auditorium
The Spaceship from the auditorium reception room
The crowd inside the auditorium reception room
Descending to the auditorium -- what an amazing space.
Inside the auditorium. I was fortunate enough to be in the third row.
The Spaceship from the visitor's center roof deck.
Me in front of Steve Job's childhood home. The 'garage' where it all began is barely visible over the fence to my right. Thanks LuckyChoices for taking the picture and meeting up.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Feb 19, 2018 11:08:02 GMT -8
Good morning all. Back from California and ready to reinvest the dividend. Unfortunately someone ran AAPL up a bit much. Noting last weeks gap, I put a limit order in at 167.50. My experience is it will execute. Eventually. For the sake of all we'll hope for a quick bounce. ... Here are a few pictures... Thanks for the pictures!
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Feb 19, 2018 11:09:19 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 19, 2018 19:25:06 GMT -8
4aapl Thank you for the reply, much appreciated. For me the fee is higher than what I currently pay. Fisher Investments quoted me 1.25% up to $1 million and prorated to 1.125% up to $2 million. -the investor is also responsible for brokerage fees for selling & buying stocks currently $4.95 per transaction. I currently am paying 0.65 - 0.85% on my mutual funds.(my advisor takes 0.25% out of those fees). I have 0 upfront fees for claseA shares & no fees for moving from fund to fund as long as I stay within the fund family(re: American Funds). What appeals to me is Fisher actively manages a portfolio of international stocks. They will turn to defensive stock positions in a downturn in the markets and will turn to cash positions in a bear market. If I remember correctly from our meetings, during the 2008 crash they had clients go to up to 50% cash, resulting in beating the markets by 30%. I also like the fact that they assign you a portfolio manager who is in constant contact, they have regular meetings with clients and also sponsor dinners for clients to meet and discuss with each other their investments. They also take into account social security, likely medical expenses, taxes, etc. in helping decide on how to receive dispersements. I also have ~ 5% of our retirement in an ETrade account I am dabbling in dividend paying stocks. (re: I subscribe to Simply Safe Dividends & Morning Star) I haven’t made a decision, this is all very scary stuff for me as my retirement is solely dependent on my investments and social security. No pensions like my parents had as my dad retired from the military. Ditto I probably have notes somewhere, but my recollection is the fee was a little over 1%. But if you view it as diversification, both from someone else managing the money (in case you blow up your account) and focusing on something different (international), you can justify it. My portfolio is closer to Lucky's, though roughly a third the size, in that I pretty much just did great with investing heavily in AAPL. We have our house and our former one, but that's just some diversification and a safety net. Due to that, it's a bit of a jump going from no management fees to over a 1% one. But it all depends on the returns. Just like taxes...I'd happily pay $10B in taxes if that meant I made $50B pretax for LTCG. But, I don't really know the options out there, or their fees. Good luck with your choice. But keep in mind how you got here, and who has your best interest in mind....if you like the choice of managing your own investments. OTOH, a little over 1% is cheap for your peace of mind, if it gives you that.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Feb 19, 2018 19:53:00 GMT -8
This is from a recent PED comment section, and as far as I am concerned could be enshrined as the motto of AAPL longs:
Fred, that false modesty is one of the most important factors in Berkshire Hathaway’s continued accumulation of Apple shares. We know that we can count on the numbers that Apple reports. We’ll find out in May whether Buffett bought more Apple at fire sale prices. My guess is that he likely holds over 200 million shares or about 4% of the company. We will eventually go under 4 Billion, 3 Billion and then 2 Billion shares in the 10 years to come.
All smart truly long-term Apple shareholders favor an outsized stock buyback with the repatriated cash. We are currently closing in on going under 5 Billion shares outstanding.
One thing that I haven’t seen enough reporting on is the lowering of Apple’s tax rate from about 25.5% to 15%. The implications on EPS growth going forward in conjunction with a massive increase to the stock buyback will lead long-term shareholders to do a lot of laughing.
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