Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on Feb 26, 2018 3:20:26 GMT -8
|
|
Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on Feb 26, 2018 4:46:06 GMT -8
|
|
Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on Feb 26, 2018 5:22:04 GMT -8
I am generally reticent to share future plans. When one places a limit order, the market makers and algorithms see those conditional orders and react to them. Given where AAPL is and is heading, I thought I would share my recent thoughts.
I have children in college, whose college funds are in AAPL. (Thanks AAPL, you put all my kids through college). They are dependent on regular sales to fund their education. I manage the accounts and try to catch the waves for expenditures.
When AAPL rises above its current all time high ($180), I expect the ATH to gain a few bucks, perhaps all the way to $185 before it retrenches and then takes another run toward $1T. I do not expect AAPL to run unhindered to $1T. It will get there eventually, but its not the way the market works.
My intended strategy, subject to whims, is to sell the balance of shares needed to fund the rest of this year in the bulge between the current ATH and the next, which I do not expect to be significantly above $185. $185 is an arbitrary point, a bit below the midpoint between the current ATH and $1T.
This strategy is based on the anticipated resistance in actually achieving $1T.
Thoughts?
|
|
|
Post by carbonate24 on Feb 26, 2018 5:25:44 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Feb 26, 2018 5:29:16 GMT -8
THE BERKSHIREHATHAWAY ANNUAL REPORT IS OUT. Always an interesting read. Last Year: www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2016ltr.pdfThis year: www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2017ltr.pdf On 12/31/16 they owned 61,242,652 shares of AAPL On 12/31/17 they owned 166,713,209 shares of AAPLWhat does this mean?
AAPL will be up today! Just an aside: Warren was always bragging that his secretary paid more in taxes than he did. IT APPEARS TO ME that the new tax reduction program will result in "carried interest" WILL be taxed. Warren is complaining........ Attachments:
|
|
|
Post by dmiller on Feb 26, 2018 6:42:27 GMT -8
Oh boy.
Wheee.
Guess that little post-earnings-report dip to close to $150 based on nattering negativity has finally been discredited. Hard to believe now.
Today's "memo" from Buffet trumps the other week's "memo" from the naysayers which, as usual, tried to snatch defeat from the jaws-of-victory aka the earnings report.
And we still haven't had the update on the capital return plan and dividend (and won't for weeks) - which is reasonable to think will also be a big positive.
|
|
|
Post by CdnPhoto on Feb 26, 2018 7:11:01 GMT -8
And we still haven't had the update on the capital return plan and dividend (and won't for weeks) - which is reasonable to think will also be a big positive. I spent some time in front of a spreadsheet over the weekend looking at the buy back based on capital being returned. Has anyone else run some numbers? This is in the too good to believe range. I need to have someone else's views to help me with the model.
|
|
bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,354
|
Post by bud777 on Feb 26, 2018 8:05:34 GMT -8
I am generally reticent to share future plans. When one places a limit order, the market makers and algorithms see those conditional orders and react to them. Given where AAPL is and is heading, I thought I would share my recent thoughts. I have children in college, whose college funds are in AAPL. (Thanks AAPL, you put all my kids through college). They are dependent on regular sales to fund their education. I manage the accounts and try to catch the waves for expenditures. When AAPL rises above its current all time high ($180), I expect the ATH to gain a few bucks, perhaps all the way to $185 before it retrenches and then takes another run toward $1T. I do not expect AAPL to run unhindered to $1T. It will get there eventually, but its not the way the market works. My intended strategy, subject to whims, is to sell the balance of shares needed to fund the rest of this year in the bulge between the current ATH and the next, which I do not expect to be significantly above $185. $185 is an arbitrary point, a bit below the midpoint between the current ATH and $1T. This strategy is based on the anticipated resistance in actually achieving $1T. Thoughts? It is hard to comment on a strategy without the bigger picture and I don't want to ask you to post further details here. FWIW, I think it is dangerous to try to time the market in a situation where you know that you will have to sell shares to meet college expenses. It is hard right now to remember the 40% drops we have experienced in 2013 and 2015, but I would certainly keep those in mind. If you have enough shares in their account, and if the main purpose of the account is to fund college, you might consider selling ITM LEAPS against the shares. If you sell them two years out, Jan 20 calls with a strike of 140 bring $5000 per 100 share contract. If they are called away, you net $190 per share (50+140). If they are not called away, you can roll them to Jan 21, 140's next October and collect another $10 per share on the difference in time value between the 20's and the 21's. Because the calls will always have at least a year of time value baked into the price, the chances of being called away are extremely small. Of course, this is only viable if the $10 per share is enough to meet a year's expenses. The other side of this is that if we do see another 40% drop, you have some downside protection since you can buy the calls back at a reduced price. The key to making this work is having the mental discipline to realize that you are accomplishing your goal even though you are giving up potential upside. I realize that it is not for everyone.
|
|
|
Post by tuffett on Feb 26, 2018 8:59:26 GMT -8
Not sure how I feel about Apple using Google for iCloud data storage. Makes me uneasy.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,679
|
Post by 4aapl on Feb 26, 2018 9:23:04 GMT -8
Not sure how I feel about Apple using Google for iCloud data storage. Makes me uneasy. If they can do it with a competitive, while not letting Google get the upper hand on negotiating the price in the future, I don't see a problem. Even better, give Google the risk part of the equation. Maybe that last 20% of data storage has a much higher probability of change, with people paying for more or less storage. Apple can build out enough storage for 50-80% of their current needs, and then hire out the portion that could see more flux. If users start paying for less, Apple can still have near 100% utilization on the stuff they built out. Plus, frienimies might be a little more friendly when they are receiving a pile of cash from you. It doesn't always work, but does give a little leverage. And would you want that with Google, or would you go with MSFT or AMZN? Google seems like the best choice, unless going with 2 or more of them.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,679
|
Post by 4aapl on Feb 26, 2018 9:52:49 GMT -8
I am generally reticent to share future plans. When one places a limit order, the market makers and algorithms see those conditional orders and react to them. Given where AAPL is and is heading, I thought I would share my recent thoughts. I have children in college, whose college funds are in AAPL. (Thanks AAPL, you put all my kids through college). They are dependent on regular sales to fund their education. I manage the accounts and try to catch the waves for expenditures. When AAPL rises above its current all time high ($180), I expect the ATH to gain a few bucks, perhaps all the way to $185 before it retrenches and then takes another run toward $1T. I do not expect AAPL to run unhindered to $1T. It will get there eventually, but its not the way the market works. My intended strategy, subject to whims, is to sell the balance of shares needed to fund the rest of this year in the bulge between the current ATH and the next, which I do not expect to be significantly above $185. $185 is an arbitrary point, a bit below the midpoint between the current ATH and $1T. This strategy is based on the anticipated resistance in actually achieving $1T. Thoughts? It is hard to comment on a strategy without the bigger picture and I don't want to ask you to post further details here. FWIW, I think it is dangerous to try to time the market in a situation where you know that you will have to sell shares to meet college expenses. It is hard right now to remember the 40% drops we have experienced in 2013 and 2015, but I would certainly keep those in mind. If you have enough shares in their account, and if the main purpose of the account is to fund college, you might consider selling ITM LEAPS against the shares. If you sell them two years out, Jan 20 calls with a strike of 140 bring $5000 per 100 share contract. If they are called away, you net $190 per share (50+140). If they are not called away, you can roll them to Jan 21, 140's next October and collect another $10 per share on the difference in time value between the 20's and the 21's. Because the calls will always have at least a year of time value baked into the price, the chances of being called away are extremely small. Of course, this is only viable if the $10 per share is enough to meet a year's expenses. The other side of this is that if we do see another 40% drop, you have some downside protection since you can buy the calls back at a reduced price. The key to making this work is having the mental discipline to realize that you are accomplishing your goal even though you are giving up potential upside. I realize that it is not for everyone. Early on as a process engineer in a semiconductor fab, I decided that one way to consider the likely stock movement is a sine wave over a trend line. Over a big enough period, with a good company that trend line should be headed up. I see writing covered calls as a way to take advantage of the trend line growth, while also taking advantage of or hedging against that sine wave. It all depends on how you do it (strikes and timeframe and entry point). Personally, I'm really liking the strategy you lay out, though for me I'd like to use it on some shares I want to sell in the medium term (put the taxes forward, while locking in some of the profit even with locking out some further upside potential) instead of just a perpetual cycle. But on a smaller scale, when looking for good sell points for say 16 sales over a 4 year period (quarterly), I can see trying to sell when in the wave portion that is above the trend line. Why not! I wouldn't purposefully try to sell it when under the trend line. It's just the risk/reward profile for the account in general, with the standard rule of thumb being to not have money in the market you can't handle losing, or that you need in the next x years. But if not following those generalities, why not go for making a little extra juice. Of course we're also supposed to be 40% in bonds, not more than a few percent in a single stock, always have a new car so nothing could go wrong, and never eat cookie dough. But you know, to me a big part of making a batch of chocolate chip cookies is being able to enjoy some of the dough. There's probably an analogy there that I should follow a bit better. A phrase I had on my wall when early in my investing career was "Take risks in life", though another fitting one would be "Enjoy the ride". I think we're doing that today.
|
|
Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on Feb 26, 2018 9:58:29 GMT -8
Interesting day. AAPL has quite a bit of momentum.
Haven't pulled any triggers yet. I'll be pleasantly surprised if AAPL hits $1T without a step back.
|
|
benoir
fire starter
*
Posts: 1,324
|
Post by benoir on Feb 26, 2018 10:48:30 GMT -8
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,189
|
Post by JDSoCal on Feb 26, 2018 11:26:28 GMT -8
Weeeeee. 😋
|
|
|
Post by tuffett on Feb 26, 2018 12:33:04 GMT -8
Not sure how I feel about Apple using Google for iCloud data storage. Makes me uneasy. If they can do it with a competitive, while not letting Google get the upper hand on negotiating the price in the future, I don't see a problem. Even better, give Google the risk part of the equation. Maybe that last 20% of data storage has a much higher probability of change, with people paying for more or less storage. Apple can build out enough storage for 50-80% of their current needs, and then hire out the portion that could see more flux. If users start paying for less, Apple can still have near 100% utilization on the stuff they built out. Plus, frienimies might be a little more friendly when they are receiving a pile of cash from you. It doesn't always work, but does give a little leverage. And would you want that with Google, or would you go with MSFT or AMZN? Google seems like the best choice, unless going with 2 or more of them. My main issues is about privacy and Google’s blatant disregard for it. I wouldn’t put anything past them.
|
|
|
Post by CdnPhoto on Feb 26, 2018 13:02:57 GMT -8
My main issues is about privacy and Google’s blatant disregard for it. I wouldn’t put anything past them. Google as a cloud service provider is different from Google the Ad company. Apple can hold the encryption keys for the storage solution.
|
|
|
Post by Luckychoices on Feb 26, 2018 13:40:47 GMT -8
Just an aside: Warren was always bragging that his secretary paid more in taxes than he did. Not true, artman. In fact, *far* from true. Warren Buffet *always* used the tax comparison between him and his secretary as an example of how broken the US Tax System is because she paid a higher tax rate when she paid her taxes. He never once said that she paid more taxes than he did and he *definitely* wasn't bragging. BTW, I got the information below from an article at Politifact, Clinton correct Buffett claimed to pay a lower tax rate than his secretary, but a simple search will confirm it from other sources. =================== Urging major tax changes, Buffett has repeatedly said he pays a lower tax rate than his secretary and other employees. In 2007, Buffett told NBC Nightly News that he pays a smaller tax rate than multiple employees in his office. In 2011, Buffett wrote an op-ed in the New York Times called "Stop Coddling the Super-Rich" . In the article, Buffett said that his taxes amounted to "only 17.4 percent of my taxable income — and that’s actually a lower percentage than was paid by any of the other 20 people in our office." In 2013, he told CNBC that while his tax rate rose 8 to 9 points more that year, "The differential between me and the rest of the office, not just my secretary but the rest of the office, was greater than that. It'll be closer, but I'll probably be the lowest-paying taxpayer in the office."
|
|
ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 552
|
Post by ono on Feb 26, 2018 15:40:39 GMT -8
And we still haven't had the update on the capital return plan and dividend (and won't for weeks) - which is reasonable to think will also be a big positive. I spent some time in front of a spreadsheet over the weekend looking at the buy back based on capital being returned. Has anyone else run some numbers? This is in the too good to believe range. I need to have someone else's views to help me with the model. I didn't get very far. I reached out to the author of the seeking alpha article about he posting his worksheet, or accepting a different scenario (a few different assumed numbers). I didn't hear back. Myself, I really didn't know where to start as far as building a model from scratch. seekingalpha.com/article/4143424-apple-returning-750-billion-shareholders?ifp=&v=1519217100
|
|
|
Post by carbonate24 on Feb 26, 2018 16:05:16 GMT -8
Some good analogies by 4aapl above, although I now find myself hungry for cookies.
Anyway, switching gears for a minute, I wanted to get opinions from the board on/for an online broker. I had been with Scottrade for over 12 years, which as of today was switched to TD Ameritrade because of their take over. I will have to give it some time, but my initial impressions were not that great. It seems like there are plenty of tools, and the thinkorswim platform also seems loaded with options. However, it was a bit overwhelming, and I was not impressed with the graphics or the overall user interface. i’m considering a move to Schwab or Fidelity. Any suggestions or input would be welcome for those that may currently use those two companies, or any other suggestions for that matter. I only trade stocks and options (mostly in Aapl) and probably only average 2 trades/week. Thanks!
|
|
Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
|
Post by Ted on Feb 26, 2018 16:39:03 GMT -8
Some good analogies by 4aapl above, although I now find myself hungry for cookies. Anyway, switching gears for a minute, I wanted to get opinions from the board on/for an online broker. I had been with Scottrade for over 12 years, which as of today was switched to TD Ameritrade because of their take over. I will have to give it some time, but my initial impressions were not that great. It seems like there are plenty of tools, and the thinkorswim platform also seems loaded with options. However, it was a bit overwhelming, and I was not impressed with the graphics or the overall user interface. i’m considering a move to Schwab or Fidelity. Any suggestions or input would be welcome for those that may currently use those two companies, or any other suggestions for that matter. I only trade stocks and options (mostly in Aapl) and probably only average 2 trades/week. Thanks! Hey carbonate. I've been a happy Schwab user for over 20 years, but my needs are pretty modest. No Level 12 trading here - futures hedged with pork bellies or anything... but for the casual options trader it works just fine. And, sure, I bought a few 2020 leaps, 170-strike calls a couple weeks ago during the downturn - the first time in a few years - and they're up 25% so far... Thanks, Uncle Warren and Cousin Tim.
|
|
|
Post by CdnPhoto on Feb 26, 2018 16:50:10 GMT -8
I spent some time in front of a spreadsheet over the weekend looking at the buy back based on capital being returned. Has anyone else run some numbers? This is in the too good to believe range. I need to have someone else's views to help me with the model. I didn't get very far. I reached out to the author of the seeking alpha article about he posting his worksheet, or accepting a different scenario (a few different assumed numbers). I didn't hear back. Myself, I really didn't know where to start as far as building a model from scratch. seekingalpha.com/article/4143424-apple-returning-750-billion-shareholders?ifp=&v=1519217100Quick question to all: From Apple's filings on page 9, I get the shares outstanding as 5,112,877,000. Both Google and Yahoo are showing the shares outstanding at 5.07B. Where are they getting that number from?
|
|
|
Post by carbonate24 on Feb 26, 2018 18:26:47 GMT -8
Some good analogies by 4aapl above, although I now find myself hungry for cookies. Anyway, switching gears for a minute, I wanted to get opinions from the board on/for an online broker. I had been with Scottrade for over 12 years, which as of today was switched to TD Ameritrade because of their take over. I will have to give it some time, but my initial impressions were not that great. It seems like there are plenty of tools, and the thinkorswim platform also seems loaded with options. However, it was a bit overwhelming, and I was not impressed with the graphics or the overall user interface. i’m considering a move to Schwab or Fidelity. Any suggestions or input would be welcome for those that may currently use those two companies, or any other suggestions for that matter. I only trade stocks and options (mostly in Aapl) and probably only average 2 trades/week. Thanks! Hey carbonate. I've been a happy Schwab user for over 20 years, but my needs are pretty modest. No Level 12 trading here - futures hedged with pork bellies or anything... but for the casual options trader it works just fine. And, sure, I bought a few 2020 leaps, 170-strike calls a couple weeks ago during the downturn - the first time in a few years - and they're up 25% so far... Thanks, Uncle Warren and Cousin Tim. Thanks for the feedback Ted. I usually keep the options trades simple too....covered calls, leaps, sellings puts. we’ll see how it goes, although i did like some of the demos at Schwab.
|
|
|
Post by michelc on Feb 26, 2018 18:58:08 GMT -8
From Apple's filings on page 9, I get the shares outstanding as 5,112,877,000. Both Google and Yahoo are showing the shares outstanding at 5.07B. Where are they getting that number from? 5,074,013,000 shares of common stock, par value $0.00001 per share, issued and outstanding as of January 19, 2018 As per first page the 5,112,877,000 is as dec 30
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,679
|
Post by 4aapl on Feb 26, 2018 21:55:15 GMT -8
Hey carbonate. I've been a happy Schwab user for over 20 years, but my needs are pretty modest. No Level 12 trading here - futures hedged with pork bellies or anything... but for the casual options trader it works just fine. And, sure, I bought a few 2020 leaps, 170-strike calls a couple weeks ago during the downturn - the first time in a few years - and they're up 25% so far... Thanks, Uncle Warren and Cousin Tim. Thanks for the feedback Ted. I usually keep the options trades simple too....covered calls, leaps, sellings puts. we’ll see how it goes, although i did like some of the demos at Schwab. I started with Datek. A merge or buyout made it Ameritrade. And then another merge or buyout made it TD Ameritrade. Combined, I've been with them over 20 years, and don't personally have a reason to leave, but also don't have a lot of experience with other places. I had a plan through e-trade from a company I worked at for a bit. I really only logged in a few times, mainly just to sell off the shares. It worked ok, but wasn't intuitive to me, likely just because I was used to something else. I don't think I ever talked to a person, except to verify moving the funds to a bank. We have a 401k or something with Schwab, and I went into an office once to see if they had any creative ideas for getting a loan quick for a foreclosure purchase. They didn't. With TD Ameritrade, my only real negative is that they've bounced me around to a few different client services guys over the years. I don't really care about talking to them much, but did finally bond and talk with one of the guys a few years ago who had kids one year younger than ours. It was good to fish some info out of him, just a "so, how are we really doing" type thing. They did push Think or Swim quite a bit, and I've looked at it a few times but just didn't really find anything I cared about...though it probably shows the open orders which the normal website had the option to show at one time but doesn't anymore I believe. For options, I don't believe either the normal site or Think or Swim do a good job of filtering things with straight options or spreads. When I wrote a program to show the options data file 15 years ago, I was interested in bringing a ton of info down to just what I wanted to see. With a used Sequoia, maybe that's only with (4wd or 4x4), 2003 or newer, and $2k-$10k. With options, that might be a Call that's In The Money and less than $5. I put in a few limiters like that, which seemed obvious to me for anyone trying to search through the massive amount of options to find the one that they wanted to buy. Anyway, you can look for a few things like a specific strike, or all that are ITM, roughly ATM, or OTM. I just wish, especially when looking for spreads, that I could narrow the data but still see a few different things....like May 155-165, May 155-170 and May 160-170. Maybe no one does that well. Or maybe there is a way to do that now. Otherwise, I've been fairly happy with TDA. They don't have the lowest fees, but they are pretty low, and they'd probably match others. And like I said a week ago in the weekend thread, they matched Interactive Broker's margin rates for me long ago, which has saved us tons of money on margin costs, and has replaced real estate loans. Take a look around some more, especially with what you use most. They can even set you up with someone to talk you through Think or Swim, if you'd like. It might not end up being the right fit, but maybe it has the features you are looking for.
|
|
|
Post by carbonate24 on Feb 27, 2018 5:36:22 GMT -8
Thanks for the feedback Ted. I usually keep the options trades simple too....covered calls, leaps, sellings puts. we’ll see how it goes, although i did like some of the demos at Schwab. I started with Datek. A merge or buyout made it Ameritrade. And then another merge or buyout made it TD Ameritrade. Combined, I've been with them over 20 years, and don't personally have a reason to leave, but also don't have a lot of experience with other places. We have a 401k or something with Schwab, and I went into an office once to see if they had any creative ideas for getting a loan quick for a foreclosure purchase. They didn't. With TD Ameritrade, my only real negative is that they've bounced me around to a few different client services guys over the years. I don't really care about talking to them much, but did finally bond and talk with one of the guys a few years ago who had kids one year younger than ours. It was good to fish some info out of him, just a "so, how are we really doing" type thing. They did push Think or Swim quite a bit, and I've looked at it a few times but just didn't really find anything I cared about...though it probably shows the open orders which the normal website had the option to show at one time but doesn't anymore I believe. For options, I don't believe either the normal site or Think or Swim do a good job of filtering things with straight options or spreads. When I wrote a program to show the options data file 15 years ago, I was interested in bringing a ton of info down to just what I wanted to see. With a used Sequoia, maybe that's only with (4wd or 4x4), 2003 or newer, and $2k-$10k. With options, that might be a Call that's In The Money and less than $5. I put in a few limiters like that, which seemed obvious to me for anyone trying to search through the massive amount of options to find the one that they wanted to buy. Anyway, you can look for a few things like a specific strike, or all that are ITM, roughly ATM, or OTM. I just wish, especially when looking for spreads, that I could narrow the data but still see a few different things....like May 155-165, May 155-170 and May 160-170. Maybe no one does that well. Or maybe there is a way to do that now. Otherwise, I've been fairly happy with TDA. They don't have the lowest fees, but they are pretty low, and they'd probably match others. And like I said a week ago in the weekend thread, they matched Interactive Broker's margin rates for me long ago, which has saved us tons of money on margin costs, and has replaced real estate loans. Take a look around some more, especially with what you use most. They can even set you up with someone to talk you through Think or Swim, if you'd like. It might not end up being the right fit, but maybe it has the features you are looking for. Thanks 4aapl. I appreciate your input. I'm sure once I spend more time on the site and figure out how to customize the interface to something more familiar, things will be okay. I just never really looked around at other brokers to see what was available, as I was happy with Scottrade over the years.
|
|
|
Post by rickag on Feb 28, 2018 16:19:17 GMT -8
TastyTrade has low fees and charges $0 for closing an option. The interface is somewhat confusing at first.
They concentrate on trading volatility which I don’t comprehend. I joined to see what they offer but haven’t used them yet.
|
|