Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Feb 28, 2018 3:40:09 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Feb 28, 2018 4:05:14 GMT -8
Let's have a discussion on Market Timing. How many 'time' the markets for your sales and purchases?
We should start by clarifying terms. Many consider it market timing if you are looking at factors such as RSI, Gaps, or just 'observing' the 'wave'. Similarly, not market timing suggests one is placing orders without regard to the underlying activity in the market -- such as making sales/purchases on regular schedule or 'auto-reinvesting' dividends.
I 'time' all sales and purchases. For instance, I rarely buy stock the day a dividend is paid. Indeed, when I was actively trading options anticipated dividend bumps were relevant in my calculations. When I do buy on (near) dividend day it is during periods of relatively low RSI with few (no) gaps behind us. Indeed, more and more I tend wait for gap fills to make my purchases.
My 'timing' efforts have been relatively successful. Of course there have been times I missed, but more often than not I hit. I validate my efforts through various measures and cumulate the gains or (losses).
How do you decide the moment to buy and sell?
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Feb 28, 2018 5:18:45 GMT -8
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benoir
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Posts: 1,324
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Post by benoir on Feb 28, 2018 6:25:41 GMT -8
One month ago I upgraded my iPhone 3 (the 3... not the 3GS) to an iPhone X I loved my 3. But I am growing rather fond of my X.
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benoir
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Posts: 1,324
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Post by benoir on Feb 28, 2018 7:05:50 GMT -8
Whoa! Spiking at $180
Atrman! On deck!
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 28, 2018 7:28:36 GMT -8
AAPL ALL TIME HIGH! $180.62 All Time Highest TODAY intraday
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Feb 28, 2018 7:36:55 GMT -8
Artman, Hope you spend the day having to edit that post...
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mark
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Post by mark on Feb 28, 2018 8:52:58 GMT -8
One month ago I upgraded my iPhone 3 (the 3... not the 3GS) to an iPhone X I loved my 3. But I am growing rather fond of my X. Wow! How did the battery last this long??? Last year I upgraded from a 5S (that couldn't keep a battery charge anymore) to a 7+.
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benoir
fire starter
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Posts: 1,324
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Post by benoir on Feb 28, 2018 9:27:39 GMT -8
One month ago I upgraded my iPhone 3 (the 3... not the 3GS) to an iPhone X I loved my 3. But I am growing rather fond of my X. Wow! How did the battery last this long??? Last year I upgraded from a 5S (that couldn't keep a battery charge anymore) to a 7+. Not sure why the battery lasted so long? I must say I only used the phone as a..... phone and an iPad Pro for the iOS goodies. And who makes phone calls anyway? (rhetorical question, of course!)
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 28, 2018 9:31:45 GMT -8
Many consider it market timing if you are looking at factors such as RSI, Gaps, or just 'observing' the 'wave'. Similarly, not market timing suggests one is placing orders without regard to the underlying activity in the market -- such as making sales/purchases on regular schedule or 'auto-reinvesting' dividends. Overall, I've been a very long term "buy and hold" investor, picking up stock when I could, and only selling when we had a big purchase (a house) to make, or when forced out due to a drop when using too much margin or options to be safe (don't do that!). These days, I do occasionally buy some options/stock/indexes when the RSI is low, but mostly have let these buying opportunities pass by. Along with RSI, for the S&P 500 I generally just look for a dip that shouldn't be lasting. But really, that's been 2 or 3 purchases over the past 5 years, missing the Brexit mini-drop, so I can't say it's something I do often. By picking up a little when it's on sale, you can bump up your returns a bit. While I didn't get close to the bottom, my SPY purchase is up nearly 4%, which added to the dividend and the likely annual return helps bump the total return of the S&P up from 10-15% to roughly 15-20%. On the other side, I have some diversification I plan to do in the medium timeframe, and I'd like to do that before AAPL has a longer downturn. No matter the cause or reasoning, it will happen at some point, and again and again. That's how it works, whether rationally or irrationally. I see the next few months as pretty safe against that, but if AAPL gets ahead of itself or investors get too enthusiastic, I can see a pullback happening sometime after that. At some point, when I feel AAPL is closer to a relative peak than not, or when it is coming off that peak, I'd like to either sell off some shares or more likely write covered calls against some shares. They probably wouldn't be $40 ITM unless I was sure of the downward track. I'd likely instead look at putting them 10-20% out of the money on an annualized basis, pretty much just putting them where I would think AAPL would be in time if it performed on it's 5 year annualized average. That would give much more upside potential than a deep in the money covered call while still selling off the very high side, but also give much less insurance on a drop. But in general, I'm no where near a trader. OTOH, I've seen the benefits of buying when near lows, whether in a quick dip of the averages, or when the RSI is 35 or under on AAPL. Going forward, once in a overall portfolio balance/diversification that we are comfortable with, I can see staying in the 95-110% invested range. Basically buying and holding forever most of our portfolio, but having a little cash or a little margin that we strategically use when there is an unwarranted dip, even if that only happens a few times in a 5 year period.
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Post by joel90069 on Feb 28, 2018 12:21:17 GMT -8
I feel like I'm watching "Ground Hog Day".
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Feb 28, 2018 12:23:56 GMT -8
I feel like I'm watching "Ground Hog Day". Fortunately each day is improving and AAPL is still outperforming the larger market.
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Post by michelc on Feb 28, 2018 13:08:15 GMT -8
I feel like I'm watching "Ground Hog Day". reminder to self.. Look only the last 1/2 hour of market...... rest is noise
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Feb 28, 2018 13:22:12 GMT -8
Just a reminder, it is not unusual for a stock to take multiple runs at a resistance level before breaking through. I am heartened by the progress AAPL is making over the last few days, even if it hasn't been able to hold $180. Besides, I want to keep Artman gainfully employed.
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