Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Mar 19, 2018 2:38:47 GMT -8
Good morning everyone. Not pretty this morning. Only the HSI and Shanghai are GREEN. Everything else is RED. Many things appear to be stirring up the markets... the FED... trade tensions... AAPL is RED as well trading at $175.65 -2.37 (-1.33%). Hopefully that pulls in before the market opens. In the news: This morning is dominated by news that Apple Is Secretly Developing Its Own Screens for the First Time. Stories at Bloomberg, AppleInsider and others. The Bloomberg video is a trip... "They're not so great at the manufacturing operations, are they..." (about 2:25). Have a great day. Let's make money.
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Post by carbonate24 on Mar 19, 2018 6:56:57 GMT -8
A little FUD this morning from the fine analysts /s over at Nomura. Analyst sees ‘signs of trouble’ due to Apple's high iPhone pricesDespite the fact that Tim Cook explicitly stated on the Q1 call that the X was Apple's best selling phone since its launch, this analyst clown definitively states that "We do not believe it is coincidence that the highest end of the product portfolio, the X, is the model that is flagging". Wtf.
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Post by gtrplyr on Mar 19, 2018 7:30:19 GMT -8
FWIW,
Our family was in need of iPhone upgrades as we were all on iPhone 6. Not only were the batteries an issue (fixable) but even with new batteries they would still be pretty old hardware compared to the newer phones ... we got a little over 3 years of solid use.
Walked into AT&T as they were having a buy one get one free sale ... got :
2 iPhone X ( 1 free) 2 iPhone 8 (1 free)
In addition to the promotion , I opened the account as a "business" account as the ATT rep said each new phone was entitled to $150 of accessories. So we had a $600 credit that had to be used at time of purchase for accessories ... so we got:
4 Speck cases 3 Mophie chargers 2 sets of Apple air pods.
Our service is priced well ... a little higher than T-Mobile but the ATT network is far superior.
Finally I asked the rep how the sales were and he indicated very good ... especially due to this promotion ... T-Mobile also has a similar offer but you have to port in a line which didn't work in my case ... also noticed Sprint has the same offer. In downtown Burbank all three stores are literally next to each other so it makes shopping for the best deal very easy. Of course it's one small example but the truth is the upgrade cycles really does help dictate sales and I'm still a believer in the upgrade cycle going on right now. It seems lost on so many but Apple put out TWO new iPhones so cherry picking just one of the models and trying to extrapolate any valid conclusion is silly.
BTW the X is FANTASTIC ! Face ID is worth the price of admission, the camera is significantly better and portrait mode makes you look like a professional photographer ... it's faster than my computer and the screen is a real upgrade. These are things I've not really noticed as much when upgrading ... then again I used to always upgrade right away when my carrier would allow ... so going from a 6 to the X is quite a leap !
Crap day on WS .... I'm not worried as Apple is putting out great product.
Cheers to the longs ....
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Post by tuffett on Mar 19, 2018 7:40:32 GMT -8
A little FUD this morning from the fine analysts /s over at Nomura. Analyst sees ‘signs of trouble’ due to Apple's high iPhone pricesDespite the fact that Tim Cook explicitly stated on the Q1 call that the X was Apple's best selling phone since its launch, this analyst clown definitively states that "We do not believe it is coincidence that the highest end of the product portfolio, the X, is the model that is flagging". Wtf. I don’t think the problem is with the X. It’s priced high but the technology and design is worth it. The problem is the 8 and 8 Plus which are frankly stale and overpriced. Apple needs to read the writing on the wall and look to increase unit sales which will keep Services revenue growing strongly. If Apple wants to keep sales steady or increasing, I would say that ASPs have peaked as of last quarter. Going forward, the lineup should be something like this: Premium “X” line ($899+) Regular line ($599+) SE like ($349+) Discounted older models This would reduce margins but it will gain more new users, recurring Services revenue and eventually more upgrades. It may also slow or stop the bleeding with lengthening upgrade cycles, and seriously pressure the competition who can’t afford to play much with their margins.
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Post by dreamRaj on Mar 19, 2018 8:35:32 GMT -8
A little FUD this morning from the fine analysts /s over at Nomura. Analyst sees ‘signs of trouble’ due to Apple's high iPhone pricesDespite the fact that Tim Cook explicitly stated on the Q1 call that the X was Apple's best selling phone since its launch, this analyst clown definitively states that "We do not believe it is coincidence that the highest end of the product portfolio, the X, is the model that is flagging". Wtf. I don’t think the problem is with the X. It’s priced high but the technology and design is worth it. The problem is the 8 and 8 Plus which are frankly stale and overpriced. Apple needs to read the writing on the wall and look to increase unit sales which will keep Services revenue growing strongly. If Apple wants to keep sales steady or increasing, I would say that ASPs have peaked as of last quarter. Going forward, the lineup should be something like this: Premium “X” line ($899+) Regular line ($599+) SE like ($349+) Discounted older models This would reduce margins but it will gain more new users, recurring Services revenue and eventually more upgrades. It may also slow or stop the bleeding with lengthening upgrade cycles, and seriously pressure the competition who can’t afford to play much with their margins. +1 to your new lineup prices. And we might get just that this September. In addition, there should be the X Plus and if that starts at 999 it'll sell like hot cakes.
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 19, 2018 9:44:05 GMT -8
Walked into AT&T as they were having a buy one get one free sale ... got : 2 iPhone X ( 1 free) 2 iPhone 8 (1 free) In addition to the promotion , I opened the account as a "business" account as the ATT rep said each new phone was entitled to $150 of accessories. So we had a $600 credit that had to be used at time of purchase for accessories ... so we got: Interesting! AT&T has had some BOGO promotions dating back from around when the X came out, but the Costco rep said (at that time) you needed a new line for one of them. So the workaround was to drop one and add one, but that would require a new # for that line. Talked to a guy on the lift on friday (massive powder day with 36" of new snow, and then 24" the next day) who has a X. Like my 5S, his 6S had issues in the cold, once the battery got a couple years old. But it was below freezing out and his iPhone was doing great. He likes that it's more waterproof. He said he nearly returned it because of the lack of an audio port (old news, but I wonder what percent of higher end android's still have an audio port). He said the face unlocking didn't work with his goggles on, but we agreed that fingerprint unlock also didn't work at least part of the time on the slopes (wet, dry, or cold fingers, and having to unglove for all of that). Just some data from the field. Time to get outside and collect some more data...
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Post by carbonate24 on Mar 19, 2018 10:43:09 GMT -8
Walked into AT&T as they were having a buy one get one free sale ... got : 2 iPhone X ( 1 free) 2 iPhone 8 (1 free) In addition to the promotion , I opened the account as a "business" account as the ATT rep said each new phone was entitled to $150 of accessories. So we had a $600 credit that had to be used at time of purchase for accessories ... so we got: Interesting! AT&T has had some BOGO promotions dating back from around when the X came out, but the Costco rep said (at that time) you needed a new line for one of them. So the workaround was to drop one and add one, but that would require a new # for that line. Talked to a guy on the lift on friday (massive powder day with 36" of new snow, and then 24" the next day) who has a X. Like my 5S, his 6S had issues in the cold, once the battery got a couple years old. But it was below freezing out and his iPhone was doing great. He likes that it's more waterproof. He said he nearly returned it because of the lack of an audio port (old news, but I wonder what percent of higher end android's still have an audio port). He said the face unlocking didn't work with his goggles on, but we agreed that fingerprint unlock also didn't work at least part of the time on the slopes (wet, dry, or cold fingers, and having to unglove for all of that). Just some data from the field. Time to get outside and collect some more data... Hey 4AAPL, just out of curiosity, where were you skiing last week? Those sound like Sierra Nevada numbers or perhaps a good storm in the Cottonwood Canyons. It's good to be able to think about big snow on a big down day like this one.
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Post by Luckychoices on Mar 19, 2018 14:42:55 GMT -8
Anyone have any thoughts, one way or the other, about the author's premise? How Apple May Be Pulling Away From AndroidHere's a comment from someone who has strong feelings about the subject: forrest macgregor Comments (471) I agree. I didn't buy the phone. I bought a phone that integrated with the other stuff I already had. And guess what that was? For me to add a foreign device (aka, Android) to this mix, I would have to resolve a bunch of little things, continuously, and get to know new 'gotchas' endlessly, and tolerate things I just won't tolerate, like never updated mobile Android OS. Are you kidding? Free would be too costly. I'd have to charge for it, and Samsung isn't going to pay my rates to add me to its roster. So yeah, if you got into Android in a big way, you are stuck in the mirror image of where I am. You have all your stuff finely balanced to work together. And you have 5 different companies to worry about changing any one piece of it to give you a headache for a few weeks, while I worry about one and it has a good reputation for making things it makes work together well. How does this translate into future success? No idea. For me, it just spells "simple". I literally do not care what the product(s) cost, up to a point. (I don't need a Mac Pro or iMac Pro). I have my phone on permanent upgrade lease, and the other stuff I own I'll replace when needed. I'm one of scores of millions in Apple's high margin business model, and can't imaging going back to the days of dealing with daily headaches from fragmentation. Been there, done that. Use Android if you want and have fun! I'd rather use my gadgets than fiddle with them... just personal choice. Good post, by the way. Nice work, 19 Mar 2018, 04:02 PM
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Post by bud777 on Mar 19, 2018 16:06:46 GMT -8
Those Android comments remind me of the early days of PC and Apple computers. When personal computers became a reality, there were two kinds of people. There were those who wanted a computer and didn't really know what they wanted to do with it. They were delighted to mess with PC's configuring drivers, adding memory cards, trying to make software work. The others were those who had something, often just one thing, they needed to do and thought a computer would do it better. I guess another way to say it is that for one group the computer was a means to an end and to the other the computer was an end in itself. I know that when i was working, nothing was better than to be working on Macs when your competition was working on PC's.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
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Post by chinacat on Mar 19, 2018 18:20:21 GMT -8
Those Android comments remind me of the early days of PC and Apple computers. When personal computers became a reality, there were two kinds of people. There were those who wanted a computer and didn't really know what they wanted to do with it. They were delighted to mess with PC's configuring drivers, adding memory cards, trying to make software work. The others were those who had something, often just one thing, they needed to do and thought a computer would do it better. I guess another way to say it is that for one group the computer was a means to an end and to the other the computer was an end in itself. I know that when i was working, nothing was better than to be working on Macs when your competition was working on PC's. The transformation for me was slightly different, but similar. After doing my thesis via punch cards and submitted jobs, I began working at one of the CAD/CAM pioneers in 1976, when everything was still green screen. I did the device driver for their first bit-mapped display (2 planes, black and three shades of gray/white). A few years later, I moved on to the X Consortium, with UNIX, full color graphics, and GUIs, but the users were pretty much universities and a few engineering shops. When the Mac hit, there were actually relatively few folks who fully appreciated it, but those of us who had been able to work on primitive GUIs were of course totally entranced. I have always been a bit frustrated that the business orientation of Windows gave Microsoft an instantly addressable market, as corporations were able and willing to pay for the new technology, especially as off the shelf business-oriented apps became increasingly available. But I have never owned any personal computer except a Mac.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 19, 2018 18:55:39 GMT -8
... Talked to a guy on the lift on friday (massive powder day with 36" of new snow, and then 24" the next day) who has a X. Like my 5S, his 6S had issues in the cold, once the battery got a couple years old. But it was below freezing out and his iPhone was doing great. He likes that it's more waterproof. He said he nearly returned it because of the lack of an audio port (old news, but I wonder what percent of higher end android's still have an audio port). He said the face unlocking didn't work with his goggles on, but we agreed that fingerprint unlock also didn't work at least part of the time on the slopes (wet, dry, or cold fingers, and having to unglove for all of that). ... Hey 4AAPL, just out of curiosity, where were you skiing last week? Those sound like Sierra Nevada numbers or perhaps a good storm in the Cottonwood Canyons. It's good to be able to think about big snow on a big down day like this one. We live at Lake Tahoe, at the same elevation (6700') as our local ski resort which is 5 minutes away, Diamond Peak. It's stated average snowfall is 300" (at the top of the mountain), which is the least in the basin, but means that we probably average out at around 250" at our house. Last year was one of the biggest snowfalls, with 494" at our resort, and topping 800" at some resorts in the Lake Tahoe basin. Anyway, we get a lot of snow, and I try to get out and ski. After our first or second winter here, when we were up at 7500', we decided that we either needed to embrace winter or move elsewhere. This year I haven't made it too much, but might still get to 35 days or so. Last year was a high mark for both snowfall, and days out in it, where I made it to 67 ski days. But I met an older gentleman on the lift a week ago who was already at 90 days. While his age gave him cheap or free season passes at many local resorts, I'm going to have to try a lot more to work up to his numbers. Off topic a bit. But it's a slow day, and a down day, which makes for a great day to get outside do something, whatever your climate.
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Post by carbonate24 on Mar 20, 2018 8:35:06 GMT -8
Hey 4AAPL, just out of curiosity, where were you skiing last week? Those sound like Sierra Nevada numbers or perhaps a good storm in the Cottonwood Canyons. It's good to be able to think about big snow on a big down day like this one. We live at Lake Tahoe, at the same elevation (6700') as our local ski resort which is 5 minutes away, Diamond Peak. It's stated average snowfall is 300" (at the top of the mountain), which is the least in the basin, but means that we probably average out at around 250" at our house. Last year was one of the biggest snowfalls, with 494" at our resort, and topping 800" at some resorts in the Lake Tahoe basin. Anyway, we get a lot of snow, and I try to get out and ski. After our first or second winter here, when we were up at 7500', we decided that we either needed to embrace winter or move elsewhere. This year I haven't made it too much, but might still get to 35 days or so. Last year was a high mark for both snowfall, and days out in it, where I made it to 67 ski days. But I met an older gentleman on the lift a week ago who was already at 90 days. While his age gave him cheap or free season passes at many local resorts, I'm going to have to try a lot more to work up to his numbers. Off topic a bit. But it's a slow day, and a down day, which makes for a great day to get outside do something, whatever your climate. Awesome. I'm definitely jealous at not only the amount of snow, but the # of ski days you're able to get each year! Oh well, I'm at least hopeful this forecast nor'easter tomorrow can dump a lot of snow and give me a good excuse to skip out of work for some morning turns.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 20, 2018 11:55:37 GMT -8
Awesome. I'm definitely jealous at not only the amount of snow, but the # of ski days you're able to get each year! Oh well, I'm at least hopeful this forecast nor'easter tomorrow can dump a lot of snow and give me a good excuse to skip out of work for some morning turns. You've gotta do something once you retire. Sure, I tell the inquisitive/jealous people on the lift, who are often up for a few days or a week on vacation, that I'm an investor. And I am. But truthfully, and as I've been telling the census worker, I'm retired. Enjoy the skiing you can get in, and bump it up in the future if you get the chance. I talk to a lot of people on the slopes during the week that are past the traditional retirement age. But, they tend not to be hitting the huge powder days. A bluebird day is great! As a little secret, most of the people that live close by and get in a lot of days don't actually put in full days. By having a season pass and living close, there's no problem getting in 1.5-3 hrs and calling it good. Of course, you can then have those timed to be the best of the day, depending on what you like. I rode up with a guy today, who I think I may remember from a couple years ago as also being an investor who's maybe 8-10 years older than me. It sounds like he tries to get there first thing when few people are there yet, get one of the first chairs up, and get in 15 laps in about 2.5 hours. Today I did about the same, maybe in 2 hrs. And an iPhone lets you get in any stock article reading you want. That said, "the grass is always greener". Personally, I get jealous thinking of those dive instructors in Maui. And sometimes I even meet one on the lift, who works as ski patrol or a ski instructor in the winter, and a dive instructor in HI in the summer. That grass sure looks green from here.
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