Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Mar 20, 2018 2:45:13 GMT -8
Good morning everyone. Markets are mixed this morning. At the moment the US and the Nikkei are RED while Europe, HSI and Shanghai are GREEN. AAPL is currently GREEN as well, trading at $175.34 +0.04 (0.02%). We'll see where the day goes... In the news: Apple has two-year head start on Android in 3D sensing arms race. Stories at AppleInsider and CNBC. AppleInsider has Apple, IBM partnership expands with new machine learning integrations. Have a great day. Let's make money.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 20, 2018 7:18:48 GMT -8
I think that's the golden view on the future, and one that as an investor you have to make sure you don't put too much faith in. While it could happen (that suddenly a major landslide towards Apple products happens, due to them being so much better and integrating together), I think we've all seen people that are too optimistic....just as we've seen some that are too pessimistic. 5 years ago or so, I worked for a small startup called FP complete that made a web-based compiler and dev tools for a small language called Haskell. Like Apple's Swift, it is a functional programming language which roughly means it's a little more basic, and so major errors should happen less, and other errors should be easier to find, mainly coming up when compiling. Sorry, my background is not in computer science, and I've forgotten most of the buzz words and lingo. But the eye opening thing was that it was all web based, and so it worked the same on any browser and any platform. So Safari/Firefox/Chrome on a Mac looked and worked the same on Firefox/Chrome on Windows. Ideally, even IE, or Linux, did well too, along with running on an iPad or Android, though we focused on what most of our users were using. Quickly it didn't matter what OS you were using, and it made me think about how much time was spent in a browser and in what way the OS actually mattered. For me, nearly all of my computer time these days is in a browser or mail app. And my wife still uses yahoo webmail, so nearly all of her time is in a web browser. That carries over to smartphone's too, where most of our use is fairly basic, like using the stock app, web browser, and messenger. When using only a few features, it quickly doesn't matter what you are using. IMO that's why Chromebooks can be a good option for certain people and tasks, and that they've become fairly popular in schools. It's only when you start using more things, do something more complex (even as simple as joining a new wifi network), or things that interact with multiple devices, that the added complexity and potential ease of use can differentiate the products. There's a few ways Apple could likely make big progress with it's user base. One is to lower the pricing, trying to get more users into the ecosystem. Another is to continue combining all of these things together, making it easier to manage them all and have them work together. Make things that are more difficult to do, easier. That's been their competitive advantage, but it's also hard to push/prove, especially as other products seem to be easier than they formerly were. On the high end phones, if Apple really does have a big advantage currently on total processor power, and it doesn't completely kill it in some other way (i.e. hitting the processor hard for an hour brining the battery life down to half), they should really find a way to push that advantage. Something like that could really swing things, for that high end phone market. Or maybe it doesn't in the longer term, if those same people are that sway-able and willing to jump ship at one advantage that clicks for them. But IMO the short of it is that it's much more likely for Apple to keep plugging away at the user base numbers than it is for an avalanche type turnover. And that's fine. It's not as exciting to predict or expect this, but looking at the country or world user base, it seems much more likely. It's that whole long-term view, for long term investing.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Mar 20, 2018 7:29:52 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
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Post by chinacat on Mar 20, 2018 9:13:35 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
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Post by chinacat on Mar 20, 2018 9:38:44 GMT -8
Apple’s great new iPhone X ad, and the tiny bug it highlights is quite amusing, and it indirectly highlights what, for me, is the best feature of Face ID, which is the use of Face ID to unlock websites. It's long form, like the HomePod ad, but this one seems more engaging due to the variety of occurrences, notwithstanding the great dancing in the HomePod ad. Honestly, the convenience factor of unlocking my iPhone via Face ID rather than Touch ID is fairly minimal IMHO. But like most folks, I suspect, I have a long list of website passwords, with different sites having varying requirements for password strength. Now, once I unlock the site on my iPhone X, I never have to think about it again. I am surprised that Apple has not made a bigger deal of this feature.
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Post by Luckychoices on Mar 20, 2018 10:51:24 GMT -8
I think that's the golden view on the future, and one that as an investor you have to make sure you don't put too much faith in. While it could happen (that suddenly a major landslide towards Apple products happens, due to them being so much better and integrating together), I think we've all seen people that are too optimistic....just as we've seen some that are too pessimistic. 5 years ago or so, I worked for a small startup called FP complete that made a web-based compiler and dev tools for a small language called Haskell. Like Apple's Swift, it is a functional programming language which roughly means it's a little more basic, and so major errors should happen less, and other errors should be easier to find, mainly coming up when compiling. Sorry, my background is not in computer science, and I've forgotten most of the buzz words and lingo. But the eye opening thing was that it was all web based, and so it worked the same on any browser and any platform. So Safari/Firefox/Chrome on a Mac looked and worked the same on Firefox/Chrome on Windows. Ideally, even IE, or Linux, did well too, along with running on an iPad or Android, though we focused on what most of our users were using. Quickly it didn't matter what OS you were using, and it made me think about how much time was spent in a browser and in what way the OS actually mattered. For me, nearly all of my computer time these days is in a browser or mail app. And my wife still uses yahoo webmail, so nearly all of her time is in a web browser. That carries over to smartphone's too, where most of our use is fairly basic, like using the stock app, web browser, and messenger. When using only a few features, it quickly doesn't matter what you are using. IMO that's why Chromebooks can be a good option for certain people and tasks, and that they've become fairly popular in schools. It's only when you start using more things, do something more complex (even as simple as joining a new wifi network), or things that interact with multiple devices, that the added complexity and potential ease of use can differentiate the products. There's a few ways Apple could likely make big progress with it's user base. One is to lower the pricing, trying to get more users into the ecosystem. Another is to continue combining all of these things together, making it easier to manage them all and have them work together. Make things that are more difficult to do, easier. That's been their competitive advantage, but it's also hard to push/prove, especially as other products seem to be easier than they formerly were. On the high end phones, if Apple really does have a big advantage currently on total processor power, and it doesn't completely kill it in some other way (i.e. hitting the processor hard for an hour brining the battery life down to half), they should really find a way to push that advantage. Something like that could really swing things, for that high end phone market. Or maybe it doesn't in the longer term, if those same people are that sway-able and willing to jump ship at one advantage that clicks for them. But IMO the short of it is that it's much more likely for Apple to keep plugging away at the user base numbers than it is for an avalanche type turnover. And that's fine. It's not as exciting to predict or expect this, but looking at the country or world user base, it seems much more likely. It's that whole long-term view, for long term investing. Thanks for your typically thoughtful response, 4aapl. Always appreciate your comments. Here's another comment from from SA: Glenn Abrett, Contributor Comments (2202) Here is the tech take: Hardware specs on android devices are superior to those on apple devices. They have to be. Which is apple's huge advantage that android cannot overcome. Android is an operating system that uses the JAVA model of write once and run anywhere. This allows multiple different devices to run the same software. Thus allowing google play where apps written for one android device supposedly run on all. Since android is fragmented among many vendors this is how it has to be. It is actually brilliant.
However 'write once, run anywhere' comes with a large performance hit. That is because to enable this feature android apps cannot be fully compiled into machine code. They run on a 'virtual Java machine' and used to be an order of magnitude (10x or so) slower than fully compiled code. Much work by google and others have reduced this inefficiency but it is still at least 2.5x -- that is fully compiled x-code (apple) runs, given similar hardware specs, 2.5 times faster than not fully compiled android/java code.
Apples vertical integration here provides a huge competitive advantage. They can still have a gross profit margin on their devices approaching 50% while vendors of devices using android, which require beefier, more expensive hardware to keep up, struggle to make any profit at all.
Eventually, I think, this will lead to the death of android/java -- this article shows that this may already be happening. Note that once a tipping point is reached and developers decide not to build their apps in android the final result will happen very fast. 19 Mar 2018, 04:52 PM And that comment, from Glenn Abrett, prompted this sequence of comments: JP24 Comments (3628) Glenn - “Apples vertical integration here provides a huge competitive advantage.”. Great point and it goes way beyond just better Gross Margins. It gets to Apple’s ability to control and enhance the users experience which ultimately leads to higher Operating Margins. Their investment in Processor technology has paid off in spades and I’m glad to hear that they seem to be making headway on the display side as well. NEW | 19 Mar 2018, 07:48 PM
Jack Baker Comments (1659) From the beginning app companies have been earning a mere fraction of revenues from Android than they earn from iOS. It's more work for app developers on Android for a fraction of the revenues they can earn writing for iOS. Its been a slow burn but the tipping point is coming. NEW | 19 Mar 2018, 08:57 PM
JP24 Comments (3628) Jack Baker - really good point and the problem becomes even more significant for App Developers when they are impacted by the nuances created by different implementations of Android running on top of an endless number of HW configurations. NEW | 19 Mar 2018, 09:06 PM
DoctoRx, Contributor Comments (13101) Author’s reply » Jack Baker, JP24: great points, absolutely key to the "AAPL wins big" possible outcome. Just wait till AR apps hit. Could it be like the '90s when SW developers wrote for Windows, then as an afterthought, almost as charity, got around to creating versions for Macs? If so, then Android would then collapse to clear second place... NEW | 20 Mar 2018, 07:33 AM
Basman Comments (11902) Roth: Apple perfected the "walled garden" and no other company either consumer electronics or software or even vertically can emulate that plus their brand and name is the best ever. NEW | 20 Mar 2018, 07:37 AM
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Post by sponge on Mar 20, 2018 12:59:41 GMT -8
I have travelled a fair amount. Android and Samsung rule the world. Don't see that changing anymore then seeing Microsoft losing major market share to OS in the next 3 decades.
There will always be a market for cheaper products and Samsung makes decent high end smart phones to do just fine. I have friends who love their Samsung phones and have no interest in changing. They can afford the iPhone but chose to stay with what they are comfortable with. Samsung has now ruled for 8 years so they have accumulated quite a large size of loyal users.
If you notice Tim no longer brags about switchers.
Yes Apple could have some cool feature that is lacking on the Android phones, but that advantage will only last about 24 months at most.
If Apple can get their phones to last more then 4 years, then I think they can really eat into Android market share. Given the limits of battery life, that is not going to happen anytime soon either.
So for $200 most of the world can get a decent phone every 2 years.
Now despite all that, Apple can still grow market share and revenue for a very long time. The Mac OS is kicking butt after 35 years.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
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Post by chinacat on Mar 20, 2018 13:10:33 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 20, 2018 15:56:50 GMT -8
Thanks for your typically thoughtful response, 4aapl. Always appreciate your comments. Awww, thanks! I try...though my thoughts seemed a little jumbled this morning while trying to get out the door. In general I don't see people switching, anything, unless there's a really good reason to. It's like the activation energy needed with some chemical reactions. Adding a catalyst can help lower that resistance to change. Take for instance insurance. In our case, it's auto insurance, where because I was formerly part of my parents plan I have "safe driver history" going back from before I was born. And so I just haven't shopped around much on it. And then added renters insurance. And now home owner's insurance. I've occasionally looked around, but they make it easy to keep doing what I'm doing. Choices on computer and phone OS's are a bit similar. The easy choice is to go with what you already have or already know. And so the time when everything is completely new, when smartphones are just coming out, that's the Wild West times where one can really grab marketshare. After that, there has to be a good reason to switch. Maybe you had a terrible experience with something. Maybe there's a huge price difference. Maybe one died long before you felt it should, whether with use or abuse. Possibly there are jaw dropping specs. More likely, with certain groups, there could be the cool factor. All are possible factors, but it takes something for it to even be considered. I'd love to see Apple knock the socks off people by giving something so great that a change would be happily overcome. I could make a lot of guesses at what might do that. I'm sure Apple has people looking into that, though I'm thinking software or content would be easiest. The nice thing is that when Apple gets it's foot in the door, whether that's an Apple TV, an iPhone, a Watch, or anything else, it helps turn the tide, and open up the possibility of making a change on other fronts.
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