Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Apr 4, 2018 2:27:10 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Apr 4, 2018 4:07:58 GMT -8
Way too much volatility right now to be buying sell offs IMO.
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Post by benoir on Apr 4, 2018 4:08:41 GMT -8
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Post by benoir on Apr 4, 2018 4:12:47 GMT -8
Have decided to unlike 84’s first post.... all too much doom and gloom! But thanks for starting us off... as per usual
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Post by osx10 on Apr 4, 2018 5:13:04 GMT -8
Would be nice if Luca on the Earning's call spelled out exactly what rules (either self-imposed or prescribed by law) that Apple follows when it comes to blackout periods when it comes to Buybacks. IMHO -It seems like the current China noise impact on share price is being amplified by the lack of buybacks.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Apr 4, 2018 6:04:04 GMT -8
Have decided to unlike 84’s first post.... all too much doom and gloom! But thanks for starting us off... as per usual. There is too much gloom and doom this morning. Unfortunately, it impacts AAPL and is worthy of consideration. For those brave enough, BTFD. My personal take is that both sides would be stupid to pull Apple into the trade dispute. Then again...
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Apr 4, 2018 7:16:40 GMT -8
Nice recovery. Now will it hold?
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Post by tuffett on Apr 4, 2018 7:39:23 GMT -8
The SPY bounced hard off the 200MA. During the drop in Feb it bounced very close off it as well, and also on Monday. This is a level to keep an eye on. If this breaks look out below. If it holds I expect a recovery over the next couple of weeks which will be magnified during earnings season when the impacts of tax reform are crystallized.
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ono
Member
posted
Posts: 555
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Post by ono on Apr 4, 2018 8:01:11 GMT -8
A suggested quick read: www.marketwatch.com/story/in-the-stock-market-valuation-doesnt-matter-until-it-finally-does-2018-04-04In the stock market, valuation doesn’t matter — until it finally does Excerpt: Investors appear to be turning a skeptical eye at long last on companies, including using those out-of-fashion valuation measures that haven’t seemed to matter much in the past few years. So if you want to be ahead of the curve before sentiment rolls over completely, it may behoove you to look at your holdings from a different point of view, one that thinks seriously about data-driven metrics instead of only momentum and “animal spirits.” As Warren Buffett famously said: “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s swimming naked.” Unfortunately, there are signs that the tide of bullish sentiment is on the ebb in 2018.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
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Post by chinacat on Apr 4, 2018 8:43:01 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 4, 2018 9:20:11 GMT -8
I hadn't read anything from Stratechery before, but this article on MS moving away from being Window-centric was interesting. One little blurb that really does sum up smartphones and (in the past) desktops: "Myerson still has the Ballmer-esque presumption that Microsoft controlled its own destiny and could have leveraged its assets (like Office) to win the smartphone market, ignoring that by virtue of being late Windows Phone was a product competing against ecosystems, which meant no consumer demand, which meant no developers, topped off by the arrogance to dictate to OEMs and carriers what they could and could not do to the phone, destroying any chance at leveraging distribution to get critical mass…" In a way that also describes a lot of other situations, including Apple nosing into the tv-show market. By creating shows, Apple both gets some skin in the game and learns about it. That makes it easier to negotiate, whether it's through buying other media creating company's assets, or working with those that have already gobbled up a lot of content. We stream all of our shows from the broadcaster's websites, though I did recently pick up a little $13 outdoor antenna from mono price that has been a great for watching the olympics and as a backup when streaming died at half time during the Super Bowl. But what's been interesting to me is to see how the websites for cbs/nbc/abc vary for what you can see. Not only do they each have their own rules for when you can see a recent show and how long it is available, but CBS has taken to allowing you to see some of their old content too. If you don't like the new MacGyver series, you can watch some from the original series and see if it holds up to your memory. (Sadly for us, it didn't.....but it was still better than the current one) Long story short, it pays to be flexible. As the FIRE book taught (talking about a quick moving startup instead of Financially Independent, Retire Early), a key is to look for when you need to pivot. That's much tougher for a large company that is more set in it's ways, but it needs to happen occasionally and it looks like MS has been doing that. At the same time, in this day and age the ecosystem matters, so that if one reason to stick with something slowly fades, there are plenty of other things the ecosystem has going for it.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Apr 4, 2018 10:44:50 GMT -8
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 892
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Post by Ted on Apr 4, 2018 12:40:52 GMT -8
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Post by tuffett on Apr 4, 2018 12:54:34 GMT -8
This market is schizophrenic. Not complaining today, though.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 4, 2018 14:16:45 GMT -8
This market is schizophrenic. Not complaining today, though. It sure is. That's been normal at certain times, but is a lot different than we've seen recently prior to this calendar year. Randomly I looked up the value of our ~1100 sqft condo we rented when we lived in Cupertino a mile from Apple (Nile Dr) that the owner sold 12 years ago. In that time, it's doubled in value, sold 3 more times, and Zillow currently says it's worth 1.15M, or $909/sqft! Granted there was a market crash in there, but I decided to do the math, since Calculator makes it so easy. 2.0 root 12 gives just under a 6% annualized return. Instead of owning it outright, if someone put down 10%, and paid no interest/taxes/HOA/maintenance, that ups it to a 22% annualized return on that down payment. Not bad! Yahoo says AAPL has an adjusted closing 12 years ago of 5.92. Annualized to today's 171, that's a 32% annualized return. You can't live in the stock (though bloomberg has a story on youtube videos of people spending the night at places like McDonalds or Walmart), and Cupertino has the advantage on school districts. Still, sometimes it's fun to compare, and be happy with the decision you made.
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Post by alxyz on Apr 4, 2018 16:47:38 GMT -8
Excellent one minute guides that should be used as commercials on TV. goo.gl/ZGEj7W
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Post by benoir on Apr 4, 2018 18:54:43 GMT -8
Excellent one minute guides that should be used as commercials on TV. goo.gl/ZGEj7WCool!
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