Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Aug 22, 2018 2:17:45 GMT -8
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Post by rickag on Aug 22, 2018 5:11:45 GMT -8
Got to love Macalope. The quote,”You can’t refute predictions like this. You can only maintain eye contact and slowwwly back toward the door.” is golden.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Aug 22, 2018 5:47:03 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
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Post by chinacat on Aug 22, 2018 5:59:48 GMT -8
Favorite quote from this one: "My biggest fear with Apple is that they have fallen so far behind in the innovation curve, I don't see where they will be five years from now," said the investor. "I don't think phones are going to be the primary device in a decade." He's absolutely right; I mean, look at how easily the various Android phone makers were able to copy the "notch"! (but not the function)
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Post by Luckychoices on Aug 22, 2018 7:47:39 GMT -8
Favorite quote from this one: "My biggest fear with Apple is that they have fallen so far behind in the innovation curve, I don't see where they will be five years from now," said the investor. "I don't think phones are going to be the primary device in a decade." He's absolutely right; I mean, look at how easily the various Android phone makers were able to copy the "notch"! That was also my favorite comment, chinacat. During the first week of this month, an AAPL naysayer on Seeking Alpha posted a similar comment to the article, "At $1 Trillion, Apple's Growth May Just Be Beginning". ========== spike77 Comments 979 Lot's Apple hype around but I'm not seeing how continued growth will happen unless a new generation of beings who need to have an Apple 'something' to impress their friends arrives in their millions. IMO it's exhausted and ready for a lie-down
========== It's so easy to respond to those who are just "not seeing" Apple's future success. ========== All*AAPL Comments 2189 spike77 said: === "Lot's Apple hype around but I'm not seeing how continued growth will happen.." === ***Yes, on that we can all agree...you're not seeing it.==========
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Aug 22, 2018 9:01:02 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Aug 22, 2018 9:18:45 GMT -8
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Post by carbonate24 on Aug 22, 2018 10:44:24 GMT -8
Apple and Google Face Growing Revolt Over App Store ‘Tax’Here is an article from Bloomberg that isn't really worth much, as it regurgitates old arguments and tries to spin them into something new and scary. I just find it funny that the people/companies that benefit from Apple creating the app store (and all the hardware which supports it), want to bitch/revolt against the established fees. No one is making them use the app store, and I'd have to imagine that 70% of sales in the app store (and its billion+ users) is far more than 100% of what a developer would get with some app only available on the web. Apple has and has earned the pricing power to charge what they feel is appropriate. Maybe they'll change rates one day if necessary. But without Apple, most of these developers/companies would be getting 100% of zero. I also find it annoying that the author refers to their fees as a 'tax'. What a bunch of Bullsh*t.
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Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Aug 22, 2018 15:42:59 GMT -8
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benoir
fire starter
*
Posts: 1,318
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Post by benoir on Aug 22, 2018 16:26:42 GMT -8
If AAPL had the same P/E as MSFT or GOOGL then we’d be at $2.5T AMZN or NFLX then $7.5T So, agree that we are unlikely to get there soon, but if the market understood(maybe the wrong word) Apple then APPL may have a more FANG like multiple. I am comfortable with AAPL having a sensible P/E
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Post by Luckychoices on Aug 22, 2018 20:06:15 GMT -8
This author has written Apple-related articles on Seeking Alpha previously and has been pro-Apple...but continues to worry that he's "overweight" Apple. I'm sure he's a nice enough guy, but why do people decide anything over X% is overweight? Why do some investors decide that they need to sell a great stock like AAPL if it grows so much in relation to their other stocks that they need to sell shares to reduce their "risk". I've enclosed the first part of the article below and you can check out the link if you're interested in reading the rest. If you do read the rest, be sure to read the comments from all the folks who sold AAPL over the years and regretted it. And by the way, the answer to the title question is, "No...hold the shares you have and BTFD". Is It Time To Take Profits On Apple? by Nicholas Ward Summary
• Apple's success is becoming a problem for me.
• My AAPL position has become grossly overweight, approaching 10% of my portfolio.
• This is a nice problem to have. I can't believe that I'm saying this, but I've began to wonder if I should trim some shares to reduce single stock risk.
The title says it all: is it time to take profits on Apple (AAPL) investments?
I have to admit, I sort of thought that there would never come a day when I asked this question, but I suppose there’s a reason why they say, “never say never.”
That being said, Apple’s tremendous run has pushed its weighting in my portfolio up towards 10% when previously, I considered 5% positions to be overweight. I’m sitting on gains well in excess of 100% in tax advantaged accounts and I’m wondering if there is such a thing as having too much exposure to Apple?
Now, let me be clear: I am extremely bullish on this company. There’s a reason that I own so many Apple shares. It checks just about every box that I’m looking for in an investment. There is strong, reliable top and bottom line growth. AAPL has a pristine balance sheet and its management team has proven itself to be more than generous with its cash flows.
In the past, I’ve called this company the best long-term DGI opportunity in the market (and I still believe it). I recently said that Apple was my #1 stock in the world. And, on top of it all, the best investor in the history of mankind (Warren Buffett) is buying Apple shares hand over fist.
So why would I even consider selling?
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Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Aug 23, 2018 2:10:21 GMT -8
Many 'professionals' preach the mantra of diversification. Will admit, I used to follow that advice. When I thought about it I realized the strategy really entailed selling winners and holding losers. Further, everyone I knew who had achieved any kind of wealth in the stock market had done it with one stock. I switched to the opposite strategy, and slowly culled out the losers. Finally came down to one holding, Apple. Do not regret it. And I sleep very well at night.
Fidelity, loves to remind me that my strategy is 'unconventional' to which I reply look at my results...
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Aug 23, 2018 2:28:11 GMT -8
By the way, if AAPL's PE was twice what it is, I don't think I would sleep so well at night. If AAPL had Amazon's PE I would probably have moved on...
At heart, I am a value investor.
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Post by rickag on Aug 24, 2018 10:11:58 GMT -8
Many 'professionals' preach the mantra of diversification. Will admit, I used to follow that advice. When I thought about it I realized the strategy really entailed selling winners and holding losers. Further, everyone I knew who had achieved any kind of wealth in the stock market had done it with one stock. I switched to the opposite strategy, and slowly culled out the losers. Finally came down to one holding, Apple. Do not regret it. And I sleep very well at night. Fidelity, loves to remind me that my strategy is 'unconventional' to which I reply look at my results... I don’t consider the bolden part of your post to be a good strategy. One would be better served by selling losers and buying winners in a diversified portfolio. Each person’s investment strategy will be different based on age, accumulated assets, debt, etc. A younger investor can take a little, or a lot more risk on stocks. I did with AAPL a long time ago, my cost basis was ~$0.69/share. At one point AAPL was between 60-70% of my retirement account when I was single. When I decided to retire my AAPL alone was not enough to retire on by itself, but was over ~25% of our retirement(re: including my wife’s retirement account). But it was enough between my AAPL and other investments to comfortably retire so I sold most of my AAPL(re: thank you Apple). The only real risk I see with Apple is their heavy reliance on China for manufacturing. While you would expect China not to screw with Apple, it is an oligarchy at best and a dictatorship at worst, they may not act in a manner we consider rational. While the risk from China is admittedly low, the consequences to my retirement were very high. If Apple had additional manufacturing facilities and suppliers outside of Southeast Asia I would have held onto a much larger position in AAPL. Oh, and cheers to the longs! 😁
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