Since84
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Post by Since84 on Sept 12, 2018 2:30:39 GMT -8
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CdnPhoto
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Post by CdnPhoto on Sept 12, 2018 3:15:01 GMT -8
I don't understand charts or technicals that well, maybe some of you can comment. Is this considered a trend line?
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Sept 12, 2018 4:51:11 GMT -8
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Sept 12, 2018 5:01:10 GMT -8
I don't understand charts or technicals that well, maybe some of you can comment. Is this considered a trend line? Yes it is a trend line. Trend lines can be somewhat challenging in that they depend on where one choses to start the trend. For instance, in the chart you attached, the trend would look a bit flatter if you started the line in May. I prefer to look at upper and lower trend lines simultaneously. Convergence or divergence, aka ascending or descending triangles are interesting. There is a good introduction to trend lines on Investors Underground.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Sept 12, 2018 5:24:16 GMT -8
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Post by sponge on Sept 12, 2018 6:14:28 GMT -8
If history repeats itself we will revisit sub 220 today. The daily range has been quite large as of late. I am surprised we went down so much so early today. I was hoping to see 227 as the high. Word of caution. MACD turned negative quite steeply and rapidly on Sept 7. It was similar to it turning bullish on the day of earnings. Just as we saw RSI jump to 84 after earnings, I expect us to drop to 30 by mid Oct. the only question will be how big of a drop do we get, 9%, 12%, or 15%, from the high of 229
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 12, 2018 6:41:42 GMT -8
It is fun watching AAPL. When you thing its going to zig, it zags... 😉 Personally I enjoy the up days more than the down ones But with investing for the long term, on the daily trends I just expect the stock to go down, and am pleasantly surprised when it stays flat or goes up instead...all while expecting on the longer term trend that it will go up, even if that takes months or years. As long as Apple keeps increasing it's profits (revenue is nice, but profits are what count), AAPL will head up. The zigs and zags are just the noise while getting there.
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Post by rmhe1999 on Sept 12, 2018 6:53:46 GMT -8
Personally I just think it's kind of funny that this year the "sell the news" effect started before the news was even released!
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 12, 2018 6:57:10 GMT -8
Word of caution. MACD turned negative quite steeply and rapidly on Sept 7. It was similar to it turning bullish on the day of earnings. Just as we saw RSI jump to 84 after earnings, I expect us to drop to 30 by mid Oct. the only question will be how big of a drop do we get, 9%, 12%, or 15%, from the high of 229 The other question is what will be the rumor de jour this year that's overpublisized as the reason that the latest iPhone is Apple's downfall. This next month, or even month and a half if it goes all the way until earnings, is ripe for dour rumor attack due to lack of actual facts. Production problems? Low supplies? Too long of lines? Overproduction? Cutting orders? Lack of lines? Too high of price? Too low of price? Bad product mix? Ugly colors? Notch-gate? sim-card-holder-gate? bad-names-gate? There's going to be something tossed about during the next 6 weeks or so before earnings. And while there's a chance it could be an actual problem (one of these, or an actual problem with the phone like bad screens or batteries), it's more likely that it will be an unsubstantiated rumor of this vein. That said, unless there's more to it, or the addition of a marketwide dip, I'd expect an RSI floor at 39-45 instead of all the way down at 30. Let's see what this fall brings....
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Sept 12, 2018 7:02:14 GMT -8
Word of caution. MACD turned negative quite steeply and rapidly on Sept 7. It was similar to it turning bullish on the day of earnings. Just as we saw RSI jump to 84 after earnings, I expect us to drop to 30 by mid Oct. the only question will be how big of a drop do we get, 9%, 12%, or 15%, from the high of 229 The other question is what will be the rumor de jour this year that's overpublisized as the reason that the latest iPhone is Apple's downfall. This next month, or even month and a half if it goes all the way until earnings, is ripe for dour rumor attack due to lack of actual facts. Production problems? Low supplies? Too long of lines? Overproduction? Cutting orders? Lack of lines? Too high of price? Too low of price? Bad product mix? Ugly colors? Notch-gate? sim-card-holder-gate? bad-names-gate? There's going to be something tossed about during the next 6 weeks or so before earnings. And while there's a chance it could be an actual problem (one of these, or an actual problem with the phone like bad screens or batteries), it's more likely that it will be an unsubstantiated rumor of this vein. That said, unless there's more to it, or the addition of a marketwide dip, I'd expect an RSI floor at 39-45 instead of all the way down at 30. Let's see what this fall brings.... For those who haven't figured it out, the correct answer is N. All to the above.
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Post by sponge on Sept 12, 2018 7:03:03 GMT -8
Word of caution. MACD turned negative quite steeply and rapidly on Sept 7. It was similar to it turning bullish on the day of earnings. Just as we saw RSI jump to 84 after earnings, I expect us to drop to 30 by mid Oct. the only question will be how big of a drop do we get, 9%, 12%, or 15%, from the high of 229 The other question is what will be the rumor de jour this year that's overpublisized as the reason that the latest iPhone is Apple's downfall. This next month, or even month and a half if it goes all the way until earnings, is ripe for dour rumor attack due to lack of actual facts. Production problems? Low supplies? Too long of lines? Overproduction? Cutting orders? Lack of lines? Too high of price? Too low of price? Bad product mix? Ugly colors? Notch-gate? sim-card-holder-gate? bad-names-gate? There's going to be something tossed about during the next 6 weeks or so before earnings. And while there's a chance it could be an actual problem (one of these, or an actual problem with the phone like bad screens or batteries), it's more likely that it will be an unsubstantiated rumor of this vein. That said, unless there's more to it, or the addition of a marketwide dip, I'd expect an RSI floor at 39-45 instead of all the way down at 30. Let's see what this fall brings.... You have pretty much covered all the possible BS. In the end the only news is earnings and guidance. I think just as the market made us overbought the market will lead us to being oversold.
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 12, 2018 7:39:15 GMT -8
Any pullback on today's announcement should be considered a gift. Apple is on fire and I see zero signs of any weakness at this point.
When the features of my beloved iPhoneX come to the lower price points I believe you will see mass upgrades.
Cheers to the longs .....
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Sept 12, 2018 7:43:56 GMT -8
I think you've got it all wrong. I have no problem with people discussing names that will be announced in a couple days, here or elsewhere. My apologies, I got the impression that you were criticizing those who were interested in discussing their opinions of the rumored names. I do understand that we are all on the same team here and hope that today's announcements bring us joy, booming iPhone sales, and a commensurate increase in the price of AAPL.
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Post by elmar on Sept 12, 2018 7:54:09 GMT -8
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CdnPhoto
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Post by CdnPhoto on Sept 12, 2018 7:56:17 GMT -8
Personally I just think it's kind of funny that this year the "sell the news" effect started before the news was even released! My hope is they're getting that out of the way from a climb that lasts a few days starting with the announcement.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 12, 2018 8:03:00 GMT -8
I think you've got it all wrong. I have no problem with people discussing names that will be announced in a couple days, here or elsewhere. My apologies, I got the impression that you were criticizing those who were interested in discussing their impressions of the rumored names. I do understand that we are all on the same team here and hope that today's announcements bring us joy, booming iPhone sales, and a commensurate increase in the price of AAPL. Cheers! I finally read a large swath of articles off of AppleInsder, including one on names. Just like iPad, Xs seems like a dumb choice when you could name it anything you want. But just like iPad, it's more of an initial talking point, and in the end shouldn't matter, especially if while name concerns are highlighted the product is selling out. Still, it would be nice if Phil and team could make better choices. Why put that ammunition out there. Kinda like naming a car something that is negative in one of your major markets. Excessive? Sort of. Though not if your mindset is 'TEN' 's'.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 12, 2018 8:36:29 GMT -8
Personally I just think it's kind of funny that this year the "sell the news" effect started before the news was even released! Though I have a hard time remembering it, this has been happening for a while around the iPhone events. My rough guideline is a week beforehand, but really it's 5-8+ trading days. Everyone (who is trading) is trying to sell before an expected share price fall, so it keeps moving forward. The same thing started happening with the lead up to MacWorld, and sometimes to earnings. But think about it. What could Apple possibly announce today that would really surprise consumers and investors? About the only thing I can come up with would be lower prices, which wouldn't satisfy all of the investors since possible increased demand would be offset by likely decreased profit per unit. OTOH, at earnings releases Apple actually can have surprises, on results or guidance. Investor psychology. It's an interesting thing.
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Sept 12, 2018 8:40:43 GMT -8
There is no point in trying to drive the price down while Apple is buying so much back. Even if Apple decides to let a FUD storm have an effect, it is guaranteed to be temporary. The ups and downs of the daily FUD are waves on a rising tide. I have never been more optimistic about the long term.
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Post by sponge on Sept 12, 2018 9:00:37 GMT -8
It can be argued in both directions.
If price of iPhone drops then WS will argue that margins will suffer. The mini iPad intro caused a massive exit given drop in margins.
If prices goes up WS will argue that it is not sustainable and upgrades will peak this year.
We will find out in 2 hours.
I think we may go back to 224 and then drop to 218 before we settle around 221.
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CdnPhoto
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Post by CdnPhoto on Sept 12, 2018 9:23:06 GMT -8
Nobody talking about the announcement?
Impressed with the ECG built in to the AppleWatch.
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Post by incorrigible on Sept 12, 2018 9:26:56 GMT -8
Agreed. Also the fall detection. My 86yo mother-in-law may be a candidate.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Sept 12, 2018 9:38:39 GMT -8
Really liked the new WATCH ad
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Post by audiosculpture12 on Sept 12, 2018 9:46:27 GMT -8
Apple watch is going to be huger. Really impressed for the first time.
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CdnPhoto
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Post by CdnPhoto on Sept 12, 2018 9:52:19 GMT -8
Fitbit down over 5.5% from the announcement.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Sept 12, 2018 10:54:03 GMT -8
I'm not a huge photography buff, but the capabilities of the new camera systems seemed pretty impressive...and it's in your pocket!
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Post by joel90069 on Sept 12, 2018 11:10:03 GMT -8
Looks like most predictions were pretty accurate except the pricing of the Xs.
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Post by incorrigible on Sept 12, 2018 11:38:54 GMT -8
I think the watch series 4 was the highlight of the show.
People buying for medical necessity (AFib detection and ECG) as opposed to just want could be big.
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Post by audiosculpture12 on Sept 12, 2018 12:27:37 GMT -8
They’ve flipped the relationship. People will buy the phone because they want/need the watch. Beautiful.
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mark
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Post by mark on Sept 12, 2018 12:33:48 GMT -8
It can be argued in both directions. If price of iPhone drops then WS will argue that margins will suffer. The mini iPad intro caused a massive exit given drop in margins. If prices goes up WS will argue that it is not sustainable and upgrades will peak this year. We will find out in 2 hours. How about BOTH? The price of the new iPhone went up AND down today.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Sept 12, 2018 12:55:21 GMT -8
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