Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Dec 3, 2018 3:23:35 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
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Post by chinacat on Dec 3, 2018 7:03:21 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Dec 3, 2018 7:17:59 GMT -8
I liked it better in pre market, when AAPL was up over $6...
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,633
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 3, 2018 9:39:13 GMT -8
>> Ironic that after all these years Apple and Microsoft are going head to head for world's largest company. In a way, but on the other hand Apple, MS, and Red Hat (just bought by IBM, probably as a desperation measure) are the three major branded OS vendors so in a way it's not. Maybe someday they won't, maybe someday the OS truly won't matter, but owning one–or having the best implementation of one if not–still matters. ... At least people have completely forgotten that MS has utterly failed with consumers for reasons that perhaps should give investors pause. But in the glow of the cloud and "enterprise" that is seen as a bonus. We'll see. I guess I see things differently. I'm guessing that MS has seen a boost by the shift to a SAS or subscription model. With suddenly getting an annual payment, instead of a pay once and then use it as long as it works model, the status quo churns out a little more money. Personally it's not one I favor, but I think that depends a lot on the software you use and how you use it. Sadly, I don't really use most software much anymore, and I'm not sure I even used the latest version of Toast and the 12 other apps I got in a bundle maybe 4-5 years back. OTOH, that's my point, that for a lot of people out there, they just don't need much software. 6 or 7 years ago I worked for a small startup doing web based programming tools for a small functional programming language called Haskell. Through that I realized how much of everything I and a lot of people do is in a web browser. How much does the underlying OS matter, if 95+% of your time is spent in a web browser. Put that way, the push (long ago) by MS of IE makes a lot more sense. That said, there are times where I really value the security of the underlying OS. My neighbor trying to give me an older PC laptop to run TurboTax, vs me wanting to upgrade at least one of our Macs so we could run it, is one example. But even with many people's computing (or smartphone) life being mainly contained within a browser, one great exception is when synchronizing multiple devices. The whole Halo affect is still real, and it pops up at odd times such as considering a new smart thermostat. In our family, it seems that in this day the OS matters very little, and that at times worries me. Chromebook's are rampant at school, and the kids even have a web based MS Office account through school. While there are still some situations that help bend things towards the Mac and iPhone, Apple needs to keep up with giving advantages to the platform. While that could be new innovations in HW based products, keeping things easy and simple help tremendously.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,633
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 3, 2018 13:25:59 GMT -8
I liked it better in pre market, when AAPL was up over $6... Nah! I'm liking it better in post-market, after AAPL closed up over $6...
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Dec 3, 2018 13:26:24 GMT -8
Up 3.5%. Not a bad day at the races. I bought a couple 190 Jan 21 leaps near the bottom just for a little more stress in my life a little fun. Here's to a slow and steady ride back up.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Dec 3, 2018 15:00:39 GMT -8
Up 3.5%. Not a bad day at the races. I bought a couple 190 Jan 21 leaps near the bottom just for a little more stress in my life a little fun. Here's to a slow and steady ride back up. I managed to sell some puts (Jan '21 150s) near the bottom, but completely forgot to also buy some more calls and/or spreads (usually bull call spreads).
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Post by rmhe1999 on Dec 3, 2018 16:32:24 GMT -8
Any news on the after hour drop?
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crispin
Member
KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
Posts: 311
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Post by crispin on Dec 3, 2018 17:14:30 GMT -8
Any news on the after hour drop? Cirrus forecast making supply chain tea leaf readers nervous.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,633
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 3, 2018 19:35:59 GMT -8
Any news on the after hour drop? Cirrus forecast making supply chain tea leaf readers nervous. www.barrons.com/articles/another-apple-supplier-slashes-its-sales-guidance-1543889170"The chip maker said it now expects revenue of $300 million to $340 million for its December quarter, down from its prior forecast of $360 million to $400 million, which it gave on Nov. 1. In its most recent annual filing, Cirrus Logic said Apple accounted for 81% of its sales in its fiscal 2018." The story previous gave a specific, saying that this pointed to something like a 4-10 million smaller iPhone number (I don't remember exactly). At this point, something is going on. The big question is if this lowering is just standard (Apple giving headroom with production line space, and then scaling it back), if this is something Apple already took into account in their guidance (a little less than expected, but it's in the numbers now), or if this really is something new since Apple gave guidance. My guess is it's one of the first 2. The guidance vs rumors were too close. And if things did change enough that Apple had to change guidance after giving it during earnings, they would, as they did in September of 2000. Grim times, those were. That's not to say that all is peachy, or risk free. While I'd like to think of this as a great time to pick up shares near a low, which it probably is, I've already grabbed a chunk back at $186 or so.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2018 23:39:35 GMT -8
>> I'm guessing that MS has seen a boost by the shift to a SAS or subscription model. ... That's a fair point 4aapl. I should be giving them credit for shifting a cash cow to the subscription model. OTOH, in many ways it seems to me Office was always a corporate subscription product in effect. I've been a network guy since '00 so I lost touch with applications, but IIRC at least in the late 80's to the late 90's they'd upgrade the suite and make file format changes introducing perceived incompatibilities that would trigger mass upgrades. Even though 'save as' was all it took to share a file with a user with a different Office version, it was too much of a headache and so mass upgrades resulted. So on the strength of the product they had a subscription in essence, the same way that some argue Apple is a hardware subscription for their client base. But when it comes to Azure, I wonder if people aren't being too optimistic. I still think MS has challenges in solving the problem of Windows, and I think people think Azure somehow gets them beyond it but I don't see it. They're still trying to re-invent Windows for a reason. www.zdnet.com/article/what-is-microsofts-andromedaos/ Meanwhile, those on any flavor of unix aren't trying to reinvent the wheel. MS tried to make an OS better unix and failed, but can't stop trying. >> Through that I realized how much of everything I and a lot of people do is in a web browser. How much does the underlying OS matter, if 95+% of your time is spent in a web browser. No question the internet leveled a lot of things, and that accrued to the Mac's advantage. I think it is doubtful the Mac could have climbed back to significance against Windows without the internet. In a sense the internet saved the Mac. Google is the champion of the web model where apps aren't necessary, and Apple the champion of the idea that apps will always have an advantage and be better for some things. For the foreseeable future I think both sides have valid strategies and both web and app centric models will continue to co-exist and thrive. If that's true, I think the OS will still be relevant. So though I wonder if some future internet-like disruptor won't level things again, I tend to think that unless apps become obsolete that's not likely. On the Chromebook question, I wonder if anyone has asked Tim Cook about this. My suspicion is that they see Chromebooks as a threat to MS rather than themselves. Ultimately, despite its painfully slow development, Apple thinks they'll be able to develop the iPad OS into a best-of-class experience and platform that Google won't be able to match, and also that apps will always matter. We'll see. Either one or both would keep the OS relevant, which Apple needs. And they want it in any case, because the idea that things will level out to "good enough" and commoditization isn't just bad for Apple, it means that design doesn't matter anymore and we'll be back to computers that people don't like to use (whether PC, mobile, or wearable) and we're back where we started before the resurgence of Apple. It is exciting to watch this all play out.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2018 13:56:17 GMT -8
Didn't realize the same day I make a sanguine statement about native apps John Gruber at daringfireball.net wrote about a stunning development in the browser wars. Though he's optimistic on the future of native apps too, he states the game and the worries cogently. Can't link directly without omitting his comments on the piece on Chromium, but scan the page for "Microsoft is Adopting Chromium" and see "Electron and the Decline of Native Apps" at the top. Contrary to popular belief, Apple bulls with skin in the game I think are a bit paranoid. I think what separates the men from the boys in this, as in most things, is between those who see that perceived negative developments in their early phases that might overturn existing orders if they developed linearly often don't, because of counteracting elements unforeseen at the time. Nothing is guaranteed so we need to be able to see the arguments as they play out in reality. No one can be sure how it will go, but I think it's fair to say Apple's achievement of non-commodity status depends on apps staying relevant. For a number of years now I've seen Google playing the role of MS in the 90's platform wars vs Apple. But even if that's a valid analogy, there's no guarantee the result will turn out the same this time with Apple still maintaining their edge and their brand against the trend of sameness and lack of differentiation that ends up at product commoditization.
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