Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Dec 7, 2018 3:33:58 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Dec 7, 2018 5:32:33 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Dec 7, 2018 5:44:33 GMT -8
Meanwhile AAPL turned GREEN in pre-market...
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Post by sponge on Dec 7, 2018 7:45:52 GMT -8
Today’s downgrade or price cut at MS is not helping us get back to 176 any time soon. I find it funny how Apple gives weaker then normal guidance and WS decides to lower price targets after having already corrected more then 20%.
Moral of the story is that one should sell when everyone is overbullish and buy when all the price cuts have been completed.
I have concluded that Apple does not mind less iPhones sold as long base is growing and the brand remains strong. Android has caught up with them about 6 years ago and yet they can still charge a premium. Android on the other hand is charging less each year.
When Apple comes out with the next big innovation in the iPhone it will eat Android and Samsung for lunch.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,431
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Post by chinacat on Dec 7, 2018 8:31:32 GMT -8
I am very tired of the endless "Apple just isn't innovating anymore" stories. It was just last year that they introduced Face ID, extending it to more models this year. And what has the response from the rest of the industry been? - a series of functionless "notches" (the original of which was derided when the iPhone X was introduced) from various Android competitors that are completely non-functional! And while the AirPods are not the revenue producer that some of the other products are, I don't see anyone offering anything close to them from a technology viewpoint. Oh well, this too shall pass. It is very unfortunate that this period of stupidity regarding Apple has coincided with a more general market meltdown, especially among the tech sector.
These are the days that make me glad that we (Fabulous Spouse and I) are part of the buy-and-hold crowd.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,431
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Post by chinacat on Dec 7, 2018 8:35:59 GMT -8
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Post by carbonate24 on Dec 7, 2018 9:09:44 GMT -8
Well, I'm no technician, but since the 170 level has been mentioned on the board a few times lately as something AAPL has to hold to avoid a further flush downward, I'll note that at 12:00pm today, the stock traded to exactly 170.00 and immediately bounced off of it. I don't know if it will continue to hold or anything, but that action at least made me feel better that we didn't see another quick $2-$3 down from that point.
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Post by nwjade on Dec 7, 2018 10:10:45 GMT -8
Well, I'm no technician, but since the 170 level has been mentioned on the board a few times lately as something AAPL has to hold to avoid a further flush downward, I'll note that at 12:00pm today, the stock traded to exactly 170.00 and immediately bounced off of it. I don't know if it will continue to hold or anything, but that action at least made me feel better that we didn't see another quick $2-$3 down from that point. Wonder if Apple is in there buying/defending the 170 line in the sand?
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,553
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Post by mark on Dec 7, 2018 10:57:20 GMT -8
I am very tired of the endless "Apple just isn't innovating anymore" stories. It was just last year that they introduced Face ID, extending it to more models this year. And what has the response from the rest of the industry been? - a series of functionless "notches" (the original of which was derided when the iPhone X was introduced) from various Android competitors that are completely non-functional! And while the AirPods are not the revenue producer that some of the other products are, I don't see anyone offering anything close to them from a technology viewpoint. Oh well, this too shall pass. It is very unfortunate that this period of stupidity regarding Apple has coincided with a more general market meltdown, especially among the tech sector. These are the days that make me glad that we (Fabulous Spouse and I) are part of the buy-and-hold crowd. I'm not sure what you mean by "non functional"? Don't they contain the front-facing camera? Does anyone have the technology to put the front-facing camera *under* the display yet? I don't think so.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,553
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Post by mark on Dec 7, 2018 11:05:15 GMT -8
Well, I'm no technician, but since the 170 level has been mentioned on the board a few times lately as something AAPL has to hold to avoid a further flush downward, I'll note that at 12:00pm today, the stock traded to exactly 170.00 and immediately bounced off of it. I don't know if it will continue to hold or anything, but that action at least made me feel better that we didn't see another quick $2-$3 down from that point. I call that "the rule of round numbers" aka combo option/stock traders. Usually you will see a spike in volume at those numbers as option traders execute combo trades either to open or close a new position. Then when the round number gets broken through, there is another volume spike, probably caused by options traders going the other way. I always wonder if they ever allow options at any odd price to be traded (think a Jan '19 171.15 contract for example) if over time, that effect would disappear?
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,431
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Post by chinacat on Dec 7, 2018 11:11:30 GMT -8
I'm not sure what you mean by "non functional"? Don't they contain the front-facing camera? Does anyone have the technology to put the front-facing camera *under* the display yet? I don't think so. Apologies, I meant non-functional for the facial recognition function that they are clearly meant to reference. The "notch" was widely mocked as aesthetically displeasing by the Android crowd, yet some vendors gladly adopted the form without the function, perhaps to lend additional cachet in the eyes of the uninformed.
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Post by incorrigible on Dec 7, 2018 11:12:12 GMT -8
$170 broken. Guess we're going to $0.
See you all at the soup kitchen.
Edit: </sarc>
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Post by lulli on Dec 7, 2018 11:21:08 GMT -8
What is depressing about the stories about iPhone sales, is that there is actually data about it, as an example from mixpanel.com/trends/, and it has said the same thing since the beginning: If you look at mixpanel sales trends for XR and XS then you see that the slope of the lines is essentially unchanged over the last couple months, and that the XR has always been selling faster (steeper slope). A good estimation of the installed base and something more about the geographical area covered by mixpanel are the only things missing in order to have a relatively good idea about how sales are going. This should be a simple thing for analysts to do, rather than only relaying on magical supply chain rumors... In any case, what one can eyeball from the data I linked to above is that there has not been any significant slow down of sales! Therefore, if the narrative that the sales are lower than "expected" corresponds to reality, then sales have been lower than expected since the beginning. Or maybe they are not lower than expected, like last year, and the supply chain reports and analyst guesses are wrong. Doe anyone have further data-based insight into this?
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Dec 7, 2018 11:55:12 GMT -8
Does anyone have further data-based insight into this? Market manipulation is easy. It's not hard to start rumors -- nor pass them on to journalists, who may report whatever they deem appropriate. Consider the various stories you've read and contrast them with what you know. Track those stories over time and interesting patterns will emerge. There is a reason many don't view certain outlets as 'good sources' or even view them as 'contra indicators'. Following what, and how, they report provides insight into the way players want to move the market. And watch Cramer on Manipulation if you haven't.
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Post by lulli on Dec 7, 2018 12:11:12 GMT -8
Does anyone have further data-based insight into this? Market manipulation is easy. It's not hard to start rumors -- nor pass them on to journalists, who may report whatever they deem appropriate. Consider the various stories you've read and contrast them with what you know. Track those stories over time and interesting patterns will emerge. There is a reason many don't view certain outlets as 'good sources' or even view them as 'contra indicators'. Following what, and how, they report provides insight into the way players want to move the market. And watch Cramer on Manipulation if you haven't. Yes, I do know all that, but I was more wondering about direct additions to this data set... If I had a good estimate for the size of the installed base that mixpanel is monitoring, and in which goegraphies, then it would be possible to do a simple linear extrapolation of the data and then determine how many will be sold just in that user group and region. Actually, come to think of it, what one can do is just take the installed base number for last year, the corresponding mixpanel plot for last year, and then compare those numbers to the actually reported number. This year's numbers should scale in the same way. Let's get somebody to do this... !
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,353
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Post by bud777 on Dec 7, 2018 12:56:08 GMT -8
I tend to take a more cynical view of the current drop and its causes. We all experienced the great FUD storms of 2013 and 2016. In 2013 it was a coordinated effort by Samsung. I remember writing the author of one of the articles and asking directly "Did Samsung pay you to write this article on Apple" and to my surprise, getting a one word response "Yes". Most of the sites were featured on the old Google Finance page. Things changed slightly when Apple started buybacks but changed much more dramatically when the Feds investigated some of the sites. See www.reuters.com/article/us-sec-fakenews-idUSKBN17C1YPFUD, or as it is called in the literature "mass misinformation" is absolutely real. This paper from Emory university addresses the broader problem, but the pages I have indicated focus on FUD. law.emory.edu/elj/_documents/volumes/66/6/lin.pdf pp 1292-3 I do not know if the current administration has encouraged or discouraged the work started in 2016, but it does seem that the FUD has increased noticeably since earnings. I think this is a time to hold fast to one's position or to act counter to the apparent momentum. When I mortgaged the house in 2013 to buy more Apple things looked pretty dark. We had dropped from near 700 to under 400. That worked out pretty well. I don't have much powder left but if I did, I would be buying. I believe that the 5G migration will drive a massive upgrade cycle that is just beginning to be noticed. I expect Apple to see 300-400 in the next three years (Just my humble opinion. You should not trust it as anything else) Cheers to the longs and thank you to everyone here. As Red Green says "We're all in this together"
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stub
Member
The fix is in. Be patient. Don't panic.
Posts: 300
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Post by stub on Dec 7, 2018 13:08:48 GMT -8
...did anybody notice the AH volume over 2.6M? and the ink is green.
I've seen that a lot in the last few weeks.
Hmmm...
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stub
Member
The fix is in. Be patient. Don't panic.
Posts: 300
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Post by stub on Dec 7, 2018 13:21:20 GMT -8
now it says the volume is 972K
WTF?
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Post by gtrplyr on Dec 7, 2018 13:38:09 GMT -8
An administration in the WH that is flying by the seat of their pants ... conflicting statements from the people in charge of our so called trade policy in China ... couple that with AAPL who has a huge exposure to China and I think the problem is obvious. I personally don't see any manipulation by anyone but rather fear of the unknown which is not something WS likes.
Once again, we are in a game of financial chicken ..... I'm not enjoying it at all and I'm convinced there will be NO clear winner here .... wish I wasn't involved but I'm also pretty sure at some point it will resolve itself, so I'm choosing to hunker down and wait it out.
Cheers to the longs .....
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crispin
Member
KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
Posts: 311
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Post by crispin on Dec 7, 2018 14:14:34 GMT -8
An administration in the WH that is flying by the seat of their pants ... conflicting statements from the people in charge of our so called trade policy in China ... couple that with AAPL who has a huge exposure to China and I think the problem is obvious. I personally don't see any manipulation by anyone but rather fear of the unknown which is not something WS likes. Once again, we are in a game of financial chicken ..... I'm not enjoying it at all and I'm convinced there will be NO clear winner here .... wish I wasn't involved but I'm also pretty sure at some point it will resolve itself, so I'm choosing to hunker down and wait it out. Cheers to the longs ..... "Flying by the seat of their pants" is about the most charitable characterization I can think of. As for Apple, I'm confident we'll come out the other end of this dark tunnel in due course. In the meantime, as you say, time to hunker down and focus on other things in life.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Dec 7, 2018 16:26:04 GMT -8
I continue to maintain that they should have never started the dividend or buyback. Just should have kept the cash.
If they had kept it, they would have 410 billion in cash on the books now with no debt. Impossible that the company would be valued at 755 billion (today's market cap) if that were the case.
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Post by hledgard on Dec 7, 2018 19:02:26 GMT -8
I continue to maintain that they should have never started the dividend or buyback. Just should have kept the cash. If they had kept it, they would have 410 billion in cash on the books now with no debt. Impossible that the company would be valued at 755 billion (today's market cap) if that were the case. Very interesting thought ! On the China angle, note that the population of China is 1,386 million, US is 325 million. At some point, China will have a more powerful influence than US in many areas.
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jz
Member
"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
Posts: 162
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Post by jz on Dec 7, 2018 22:58:37 GMT -8
Moral of the story is that one should sell when everyone is overbullish and buy when all the price cuts have been completed.
I’m trying. Staying disciplined requires.... discipline.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2018 16:49:26 GMT -8
I continue to maintain that they should have never started the dividend or buyback. Just should have kept the cash. If they had kept it, they would have 410 billion in cash on the books now with no debt. Impossible that the company would be valued at 755 billion (today's market cap) if that were the case. But if they did that wouldn't it also be true that they're mismanaging the money, even though it's really short-term whatever instead of actual cash? I think that would be a worrying sign that the company's main purpose was promoting shareholder value. That idea has been described as a very bad idea by even Jack Welch. www.forbes.com/sites/stevedenning/2017/07/17/making-sense-of-shareholder-value-the-worlds-dumbest-idea/
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