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Post by rickag on Feb 5, 2019 14:49:05 GMT -8
My March options may not do well despite a drop. Only see aapl dropping to 146 which is not low enough. Yes it will please the haters here. I did not see the SPY reversal from Dec until this week and bought them two weeks early. Also the reversal of the Fed was a factor, even though they confirmed the economy is not that strong. Secondly I did not expect Trump to cave so easily to Nancy. So I think chances of a China deal are much higher then two weeks ago. So it boils down to Trump. If he stays strong and we trigger the 25% tariffs then I expect the SPY to drop under 230 and aapl to follow respectively. With that scenario I should do very well. But will be buying calls in April and then puts in May. So not worried about outcome in March. I think the US economy will slow down significantly regardless of what the WH is touting. The fed confirmed that last week. Since you play with options have you looked into TastyTrade/TastyWorks? The people that run it developed Think or Swim. Their trading platform is designed for options traders and target safer trades based on volatility. Also there are no closing costs.
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Post by nwjade on Feb 5, 2019 14:51:56 GMT -8
I have to admit that as much as some enjoy following my posts and are ready to pounce, I do get a kick from the crazy responses. I say some things just to keep some of your blood pressure high and increase your heat rates so you can burn more calorie with the Apple Watch. Autocorrect sucks and it is yet one more big Apple miss along with search and maps. There is so much wrong with this post. Sad...
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Post by sponge on Feb 5, 2019 14:52:52 GMT -8
I use their platform for some charting but their options trading system is not user friendly.
Will be doing more trading with them by fall.
I do have a trading account with them.
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Post by zzmac on Feb 5, 2019 15:14:28 GMT -8
I don’t think Apple should lower prices on any of their phones. I think it’s a much better strategy to have a lot of different price points. If people can’t afford an XS they’re not going to run out and switch to a Scamsung. They’ll buy an iPhone they can afford. I upgraded to an XR a few months back and am really happy with it. I know others with the XS and they’re happy as well. At my wife’s work they are upgrading to iPhone 8’s. Something for everyone!
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 5, 2019 15:15:10 GMT -8
Retail is broken. Apple's Angela Ahrendts has a plan FROM last week: here"I’m only one person,” Ahrendts says when I ask her about the parallels between her earlier transformation of Burberry and now at Apple. “I just set the vision and I am the connector – I am the enabler if you will. The common denominator for me is always the people. ............. “The tragedy in retail is that it has become about numbers,” ............ Contrary to the rest of the retail sector, Ahrendts is more concerned with the effect Apple’s stores have on its brand than how many sales they generate each day. “From a financial perspective we look at [our stores] differently. We look at Los Angeles and say, what do we want to achieve there? Now, my big flagship may not make as much money as my store over in Century City, but I’m looking at all the customers in LA from all these different touch points. What’s the profitability for those customers in LA? “It’s a very different way from traditional retailers, who think door by door by door,” she continues. “Who think, ‘I’m going to close that door because it wasn’t profitable.’ “One of the things we’ve had to do at Apple is to stop looking at everything on a linear basis,” she adds. “You can’t just look at the profitability of one store or the profitability of one app or the online business. You have to put it all together: one customer, one brand.
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 5, 2019 15:22:11 GMT -8
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Post by joel90069 on Feb 5, 2019 15:26:30 GMT -8
Retail is broken. Apple's Angela Ahrendts has a plan FROM last week: here"I’m only one person,” Ahrendts says when I ask her about the parallels between her earlier transformation of Burberry and now at Apple. “I just set the vision and I am the connector – I am the enabler if you will. The common denominator for me is always the people. ............. “The tragedy in retail is that it has become about numbers,” ............ Contrary to the rest of the retail sector, Ahrendts is more concerned with the effect Apple’s stores have on its brand than how many sales they generate each day. “From a financial perspective we look at [our stores] differently. We look at Los Angeles and say, what do we want to achieve there? Now, my big flagship may not make as much money as my store over in Century City, but I’m looking at all the customers in LA from all these different touch points. What’s the profitability for those customers in LA? “It’s a very different way from traditional retailers, who think door by door by door,” she continues. “Who think, ‘I’m going to close that door because it wasn’t profitable.’ “One of the things we’ve had to do at Apple is to stop looking at everything on a linear basis,” she adds. “You can’t just look at the profitability of one store or the profitability of one app or the online business. You have to put it all together: one customer, one brand. It sounds like an excuse from an overpaid employee who failed.
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Post by rickag on Feb 5, 2019 16:02:55 GMT -8
I use their platform for some charting but their options trading system is not user friendly. Will be doing more trading with them by fall. I do have a trading account with them. I haven’t gone through all their web based learning programs but am very interested in their volatility trading strategy. It is not designed for hiting the homerun but consistently beating the market. By selling high volatility you benefit from volatility going down and time decay. Interesting stuff.
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Post by plcm123 on Feb 5, 2019 17:03:21 GMT -8
Apple's gross margin was between 37.5-38.5 after the big iPad growth and iPhone 6 release. 2013-2015 In those years one could buy the latest iPhone for $599. If you wanted more memory you paid an extra $100. The following year you could get that same phone for $499. So a $100 drop did not hurt margins. Now if you want the latest you have to spend $1099. Yes Apple managed to increase the price by $500. You get the latest tech and you are forced to buy a bigger size. Never mind the more memory. Margin sill is 38%. There is a small chance Apple can lower the price by $250 without hurting margins. I agree that new technology costs more and they are not making $300 more in profit. However TC the manufacturing genius could not negotiate lower prices on those features despite selling a ton more iPhones then 2013. Never mind he put all of his eggs in the growth story of China. in order to keep a high gross margin they increased the price, but also played games with memory upgrades and sizes of iPhones. That to me is pure greed. It is a short term gain for a longer term headache. iPhone sales will show a drop for three years in a row. Yes it can go back up with the 5G but no everyone will upgrade in 2020 like they did in 2015 for 6 or 2017 for X They also got rid of the 5C too soon and also the SE. They are trying hard to force everyone to spend more money by buying bigger screens and more memory. They did the same with iPad Pro, Mac Air, and Apple Watch. Remember when you could get an Apple Watch for $14k and then for $1200. Those models were taken off the market a year later. Apple margin did not change much with higher iPhone prices so I don't think there was any intention of greediness. There are a wide range of iPhone models with prices for every budget so I don't think they are forcing certain price.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,186
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 5, 2019 18:31:18 GMT -8
So, my political opinion on the State of the Union is...just kidding. Just came into say “weeeee.” 🍻
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Post by sponge on Feb 5, 2019 18:48:27 GMT -8
According to Bloomberg Angela got $170 million over the last 5 years. Not bad for inheriting a great retail system that is now in need of more attention. .Something happened in the last 2 weeks. You don’t pay that much money and let someone pursue some personal goals. I think she had some good ideas but were never supported by TC. She would have made a good CEO. Heck at this point anyone would do better then TC.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2019 19:01:17 GMT -8
2013-2015 In those years one could buy the latest iPhone for $599. ... Now if you want the latest you have to spend $1099. Yes Apple managed to increase the price by $500. You get the latest tech and you are forced to buy a bigger size. They also got rid of the 5C too soon and also the SE. They are trying hard to force everyone to spend more money by buying bigger screens and more memory. They did the same with iPad Pro, Mac Air, and Apple Watch. Remember when you could get an Apple Watch for $14k and then for $1200. Those models were taken off the market a year later. This is the purest of nonsense. It's comical how people simultaneously fetishize "the latest" while decrying the cost. Aside from the iPhone 7, outright prices are iphone 8 starting $600 and 10r starting at $749. Apple stopped offering the 5C because it sold poorly. I suspect the SE in the end was selling poorly too. I loved my 4s and had it for four years, but in the end I now love big phones and I couldn't go back. The funny thing is that Samsung has some very high priced phones, with very high profit margins, it's just that few people actually buy them in comparison to Apple's top models and so their ASP is lower. ASP is determined by consumer choices. It is a useful stat for investors, and nothing more. It's impossible to buy an average phone. It's a mathematical entity. It's silly and arrogant to object to choices that consumers freely make individually. And iPad? Let's see, the entry level model started out at 499, and now the vastly more powerful entry level model is 329, and can be had at steep discounts. I picked one up for 249 at Target in January. BTW, there is no TV manufacturer that isn't making bigger and bigger screens. The horror! Am I to understand you actually can't grasp what is it about big screens–on TVs, computers, and watches–that people like? And that it's only common sense that Apple would seek to follow the wishes of the consuming public? All this stuff seems pretty self-explanatory. There is no basis for your outrage. No one is being forced to do anything.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Feb 5, 2019 19:11:05 GMT -8
My March options may not do well despite a drop. Only see aapl dropping to 146 which is not low enough. Yes it will please the haters here.
is this apple finance board or ANTI-apple finance board?! i was confused before, but now i see -- you're a full-on short! i will keep that in mind.
you wax poetic about great future of the company and then say Tim cook needs to get fired? what's the hell's wrong with you dude? then you say trump is weak and pelosi is crazy and chinese are playing us... everybody's fault but yours you stupidly decided to short at the low after already riding down the long from 193 to 143! (buy high, sell low, then short low)
and yeah, will enjoy thinking of you being burned on puts that had to see aapl below $146 just to break even...
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Post by sponge on Feb 5, 2019 19:28:58 GMT -8
The knives are out. I expected some of those attacks after disclosing my position. . Hope some of you will be around to remind me how wrong I was in 12 months. The price history on the iPhone is correct. If you want the latest an best $1099. Don’t sell me a 2 year old iPhone 7 with less memory and tell me I am getting a great deal. Even the 8 is a year old and offers less then practical memeory for the 4K video. I have to compromise in features to save money. Apple has a great future. I think the iPhone also has a great future and is an amazing product. I have been an Apple consumer before some of you were born and own more Apple products then most. I am on a VIP list when I call for service simply because they see how many products I have bought. This does not mean that the company will not have dark days and clouds are presently gathering for upcoming storms. Leaders get greedy and complacent after getting attention and money. I have enough inside info that says the work culture can improve and TC has not helped that negativity. He is a socialist that loves the money of a very successful for profit company that he has inherited not created in the greatest country on this earth. He made a deal with the devil in China. And I bought the latest iPad and it cost $1000. In 2010 it was $600.
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Post by Lstream on Feb 5, 2019 20:04:45 GMT -8
I have to admit that as much as some enjoy following my posts and are ready to pounce, I do get a kick from the crazy responses. I say some things just to keep some of your blood pressure high and increase your heat rates so you can burn more calorie with the Apple Watch. Autocorrect sucks and it is yet one more big Apple miss along with search and maps. There is so much wrong with this post. Sad... Well at least he admits to being a troll. Starved for attention I guess. That is the problem with a moderation approach that assumes people will behave as adults. Turns a potential useful place into absolute shit. Quite the thing to be proud of. He was thrown out of Braeburn for this kind of behavior. Lucky us.
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Post by sponge on Feb 5, 2019 20:26:00 GMT -8
How sweet. I attack no one but respectfully disagree and I am considered a troll. After being attacked I express strength by enjoying the discomfort I feel thru the screen at my commentary.
I was kicked out of The Robert L.fan club because I defended my self in person on the phone when he called me a racist for stating Apple did well to buy Beats. He did not like my long term bullish view of seeing a multiple trillion valuation.
I am too busy to count how many of you cried during the 2008, 2013, 2016, and now won’t accept that we have much lower to go. There will be shedding of tears again.
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 5, 2019 20:36:05 GMT -8
THIS is called the AAPL finance board intraday thread.
There is nothing WRONG with NEGATIVE views at times.
Instead of calling him a TROLL or something worse, debate his views.
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Post by Lstream on Feb 5, 2019 20:38:24 GMT -8
THIS is called the AAPL finance board intraday thread. There is nothing WRONG with NEGATIVE views at times. Instead of calling him a TROLL or something worse, debate his views. He called himself a troll. I am just agreeing with him.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2019 21:37:59 GMT -8
And I bought the latest iPad and it cost $1000. In 2010 it was $600. Sponge, "latest" is a temporal term. That specifies a date and/or time. That's what it means. Your private use of "latest" to mean the most expensive or top of the line model is a transparent attempt win a debate without an argument. Does this maneuver seem clever to you? It isn't.
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Post by sponge on Feb 5, 2019 21:48:51 GMT -8
For me the latest is the one with the most features. The big feature of the X max is the size. Yes Apple has charged 100 for the bigger screen. I think they should be selling that iPhone for 899.
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 5, 2019 21:51:09 GMT -8
I have to admit that as much as some enjoy following my posts and are ready to pounce, I do get a kick from the crazy responses. I say some things just to keep some of your blood pressure high and increase your heat rates so you can burn more calorie with the Apple Watch. There is so much wrong with this post. Sad... Well at least he admits to being a troll. Starved for attention I guess. That is the problem with a moderation approach that assumes people will behave as adults. Turns a potential useful place into absolute shit. Personally, I like seeing the flip side sometimes, as long as it is rational. I feel that Sponge really feels that some of these price points are possible. Something about gaps and support levels. The question to me is what is the probability. What he might see as a 5-20% chance of happening, I might see as a 1% chance. More importantly, there might be something that he validly sees as having a 40-80% chance of happening, but that I am completely blind to. In my mind, I see an 80-90+% chance that we'll see 203 before 103. Though I'd guess at a 40-50% chance of seeing 203 within the next 12 months. But I can't completely throw out 103 as not being possible, placing maybe a 5% chance on something Apple specific, and 5% on something happening in the global markets that was bad enough to make it happen. If I was into black swan investing, there'd likely be a way to have that low probability possibility pay off. Instead, I'm happy that all things I see with Apple point to it continuing and even increasing it's dividend, which currently more than pays the bills. With that, we can withstand any paper changes in our portfolio value, though admittedly we are happy that AAPL has recovered more than 30 points off it's recent relative low a month ago. But, here and in other forums over the years, there are times where someone just bugs you. I remember using the ignore feature on TMF 20 years ago, when someone went off the deep end. For me, it was rare to put someone into that, and often I un-ignored later. Pro boards has a similar feature, called mute. It's there as a choice under the gear icon. If someone is getting under your skin and you (anyone and everyone) feel you just aren't getting anything positive from a particular user, go ahead and mute them. There's a few of us that have volunteered to be moderators here, but in general we all agree that self-moderation is best. Frankly, we don't want to micromanage anything here. Lets self-regulate, keeping things civil. If you feel someone is just trying to get your heart rate up, go ahead and mute them. If you feel you have to personally attack someone, bite thy tongue instead. And if it's political or in some other way likely to be offensive, think twice about it, but post it in the dungeon if you must. Cheers!
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2019 21:00:43 GMT -8
For me the latest is the one with the most features. That's obvious. Problem is, once you admit this to a private and idiosyncratic use it makes invalid the narrative that Apple is "increasing prices". Remember this? "In those years one could buy the latest iPhone for $599. ... Now if you want the latest you have to spend $1099. Yes Apple managed to increase the price by $500." Increasing the price of the top of the line is a good thing to do, because it increases the options and functions of those who want it. If that's bad, then providing options is bad. Ask Henry Ford how that works out. You've called something bad that isn't bad, in fact it's a very good thing. You're pretending as if Apple has cancelled the lower priced ones. What I find comical about that is that it accepts the worst sort of nonsense about people being "forced" to buy things just because they're there. Would anyone believe that Toyota was forcing anyone to buy a Lexus just by providing one? It's amazing how in the case of Apple people say this with a straight face. Stop me before I buy again! LOL
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Post by sponge on Feb 6, 2019 21:12:40 GMT -8
For me the latest is the one with the most features. That's obvious. Problem is, once you admit this to a private and idiosyncratic use it makes invalid the narrative that Apple is "increasing prices". Remember this? "In those years one could buy the latest iPhone for $599. ... Now if you want the latest you have to spend $1099. Yes Apple managed to increase the price by $500." Increasing the price of the top of the line is a good thing to do, because it increases the options and functions of those who want it. If that's bad, then providing options is bad. Ask Henry Ford how that works out. You've called something bad that isn't bad, in fact it's a very good thing. You're pretending as if Apple has cancelled the lower priced ones. What I find comical about that is that it accepts the worst sort of nonsense about people being "forced" to buy things just because they're there. Would anyone believe that Toyota was forcing anyone to buy a Lexus just by providing one? It's amazing how in the case of Apple people say this with a straight face. Stop me before I buy again! LOL In 2014 I wanted the latest with the best features and it was $599. This year I want the latest with the best features and it costs $1099. Are all those features worth the extra $500? Apple says yes and the public says no way. Last year sales were down 1% for Q1 2018 and this year sales are down 15%. This despite offering so many other more affordable options. Apple needs to expand its base and add more people to the ecosystem. The problem is that when 60% of net income comes from one product and that product is not selling well, that base is not expanding. Yes I know TC said they have 900 million iPhone users. They are still losing market share in China the one place they saw huge opportunity 5 years ago. They were the number #1 phone and traded places with Samsung a few times. Now they are I believe in 5th place. Price is the reason. Please refer to my other thread where I showed an article the the prices of iPhones in other countries. Lets not forget India. They are pricing themselves out of the overall market.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2019 21:37:55 GMT -8
But, here and in other forums over the years, there are times where someone just bugs you. I remember using the ignore feature on TMF 20 years ago, when someone went off the deep end. For me, it was rare to put someone into that, and often I un-ignored later. Pro boards has a similar feature, called mute. It's there as a choice under the gear icon. If someone is getting under your skin and you (anyone and everyone) feel you just aren't getting anything positive from a particular user, go ahead and mute them. Agreed. I don't care even if someone is sincere or not. I'm in no way saying that's the case, only that it doesn't really matter to me. I just read the text and analyze it as I please. Oftentimes people don't really know their own motivations for participating. They give lip service to the value of debate or discussion, but they don't believe it. So they easily tip into outrage and name calling because of their own confusion. If you know what you want and you know you're getting it, it's all good. I know exactly why I participate, and the benefits are very real to me. To find the best arguments for and against a particular position, to better express and/or evaluate something. It's a progressive process and has some necessarily social aspects. I do like to state my views punchily, and frankly some rhetorical tricks are so obvious it's a bit insulting, but it's nothing personal. Know what you want, and know how to get it, and it's just business.
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Post by tuffett on Feb 6, 2019 22:32:21 GMT -8
According to Bloomberg Angela got $170 million over the last 5 years. Not bad for inheriting a great retail system that is now in need of more attention. .Something happened in the last 2 weeks. You don’t pay that much money and let someone pursue some personal goals. I think she had some good ideas but were never supported by TC. She would have made a good CEO. Heck at this point anyone would do better then TC. Really? She showed me nothing to indicate that she is CEO of Apple material. I would much rather have an engineer as CEO over a fashion industry executive. The fashionable tech phase is largely over now as all devices look pretty good. Apple Watch Edition flopped because it was crazy. What does it say about Ahrendts that her replacement is taking over her position as a side job in addition to her existing responsibilities? I don’t think she had much impact either positive or negative, and her departure is certainly not a big deal to Apple.
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Post by sponge on Feb 6, 2019 22:47:00 GMT -8
I am just surprised she was paid so much. I still think she could have made a good CEO. We will never know why retail customer service did not improve under her reign. I guess blaming her seem logical since it was under her responsibility.
I agree regarding a tech engineer type to lead company. But we have that and 70% of those waiting around in the stores are at the Genius Bar. So maybe the engineer CEO should be making decisions that improve products and ease of use. In his defense Apple exploded and they just can’t keep up with tech support in the stores. On the phone I have had my own challenges with tech support level of knowledge. To this day they have not been able to fix my Time Capsule thru their Airport router.
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