Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on May 29, 2019 2:17:28 GMT -8
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,649
|
Post by 4aapl on May 29, 2019 9:08:55 GMT -8
Not feeling too bullish in the short term? Having the RSI go from about 80 to about 30 in about a month will do that. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p13827046851(over the past 3 years, AAPL's RSI has only made it down to around 30 or below 6 times) While I don't follow too many technicals, I realized a long time ago that at least some of them translate to human psychology, which is why they work often enough. Without an outside stimulus, some of the things make sense with just how people tend to feel based on where the stock has been. Thus right now, with having a bunch of down days strewn together, things aren't too cheering. OTOH, did it go down too fast, taking out the weak hands but getting oversold? I'd much rather the stock was up. And outside actions, whether trade related or otherwise, do play a part. OTOH, chances are that AAPL is oversold right now, and that this is a decent buying opportunity. It's not necessarily the bottom, and there's a lot going on (almost always is...something is always splattered on the wall of worry). But inching in now likely isn't bad, though keeping reserves in case things go down further. While tempting to toss another 10% into the pot, 1,2 or 5% is more in line, if looking to do such a thing and if not having a big bundle in reserve. (OTOH I bought a little at $186 on the way down, ~6 months ago....so what do I know)
|
|
mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,555
|
Post by mark on May 29, 2019 9:48:08 GMT -8
Not feeling too bullish in the short term? Having the RSI go from about 80 to about 30 in about a month will do that. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p13827046851(over the past 3 years, AAPL's RSI has only made it down to around 30 or below 6 times) While I don't follow too many technicals, I realized a long time ago that at least some of them translate to human psychology, which is why they work often enough. Without an outside stimulus, some of the things make sense with just how people tend to feel based on where the stock has been. Thus right now, with having a bunch of down days strewn together, things aren't too cheering. OTOH, did it go down too fast, taking out the weak hands but getting oversold? I'd much rather the stock was up. And outside actions, whether trade related or otherwise, do play a part. OTOH, chances are that AAPL is oversold right now, and that this is a decent buying opportunity. It's not necessarily the bottom, and there's a lot going on (almost always is...something is always splattered on the wall of worry). But inching in now likely isn't bad, though keeping reserves in case things go down further. While tempting to toss another 10% into the pot, 1,2 or 5% is more in line, if looking to do such a thing and if not having a big bundle in reserve. (OTOH I bought a little at $186 on the way down, ~6 months ago....so what do I know) "Often enough" for what exactly? I have yet to hear about any person or fund that uses technical analysis beat the market over a long period of time. Heck, not even over short periods of time. On the other hand, I have seen, quite often, that technical analysis clearly illustrates human psychology and the reflected human actions in the past.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,649
|
Post by 4aapl on May 29, 2019 10:03:07 GMT -8
"Often enough" for what exactly? I have yet to hear about any person or fund that uses technical analysis beat the market over a long period of time. Heck, not even over short periods of time. On the other hand, I have seen, quite often, that technical analysis clearly illustrates human psychology and the reflected human actions in the past. Often enough to make a talking point Often enough to have followers Often enough to convince people it works every time....until it doesn't With Apple, a company that keeps on coming, most purchases for the long term have worked out (though 1D, 5D, 1 month, 6 month and 1 year are all currently in the red). Any purchase when below the trending average is a better than average purchase...as long as the stock recovers eventually.
|
|
Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on May 29, 2019 12:19:23 GMT -8
I've used a combination of technicals for buying and selling, particularly options.
For instance I like to go long when RSI < 30 and short when it is >70.
I also use gaps to determine buying opportunities. In my experience they fill. My biggest failure is getting impatient and buying before the Gap fills. Like this time.
Would still like AAPL take out $173. Was hopeful it would happen today. Unfortunately not.
My fear is the other gap in the mid 150's which Sponge has pointed out. Repeatedly. Ignore it at your peril.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on May 29, 2019 12:37:08 GMT -8
I see 175 as support for now. Next time we really correct, I think we will go thru all the gaps down into 130s or even 125. Don’t see that until Nov.
One never knows. I am curious to see how far we go up after WWDC next week.
|
|