chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,431
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Post by chinacat on Jul 18, 2019 5:34:43 GMT -8
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Post by sponge on Jul 18, 2019 7:03:50 GMT -8
Well if the sell off late in the day yesterday had not happened we could have seen 210 today with that upgrade. The market is trying hard to start the profit taking. Everyone knows that we will have a rate cut.
The market is taking us down slowly today. We may recover back to 205 by end of the day, but volume is dropping quickly. Anything can happen at this point.
I did buy a few puts at the highs of the day. I think next week we will have a mini crash towards the 200 MA. OI for puts keeps going up for the week of earnings.
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Post by sponge on Jul 18, 2019 7:09:05 GMT -8
On a separate note the Raymond James upgrade makes no sense. He claim Apple will introduce a cheaper 5G iPHone next year and most people will only care since it will be cheaper despite not needing a 5G.
All the cities around here are approving 5G modules to be placed on top of street lights. I think in 5 years the cell companies will give the cable companies some real competition for broadband in the homes. 5G when fully deployed will be huge, but it will take many years given how close the modules need to be to each other.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Jul 18, 2019 11:00:13 GMT -8
I did buy a few puts at the highs of the day. I think next week we will have a mini crash towards the 200 MA. OI for puts keeps going up for the week of earnings. puts on aapl? brazen! and isn't 200ma something like $187? that's quite a mini-crash! not saying it's impossible... just... why?
but i'm glad, actually, phew... was getting worried when you started get all bullish with $224 september target recently...
love you, spongie, you're the best contrarian indicator!
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Jul 18, 2019 11:07:01 GMT -8
Neil Cybart: Jony Ive, Jeff Williams, and a Larger Apple
One thing I don't get is this: "My approach to analyzing the Jony news was to look at his evolving role within Apple over the past eight years beginning with Apple Watch development. Doing so revealed that this latest news wasn’t in planning for years, contrary to popular opinion. Instead, there was evidence of Jony and Apple working to find a more sustainable path forward." I don't see why finding a more sustainable path forward might not have been in the works for years, unless the strong growth was unanticipated. It could certainly be the final action plan for dealing with it was a recent thing.
cybart is full of shit... his entire long thesis and apple analysis has been built around how jony ive is the intellectual and spiritual replacement of steve jobs... how industrial design has been elevated within apple... how this will ensure the next 50 years...
back when jony was named CDO and some people saw that for what it was (sign of his diminished role) cybart doubled down on how everything revolves around jony
basically cybart was completely blindsided here and needs to cover his behind... but instead of a mea culpa, it's excuses-excuses (in 4500 words or less )... he's no better than wall st analysts with their price targets... i do like buyback stuff but he should stick to his knitting
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Post by sponge on Jul 18, 2019 11:42:25 GMT -8
I did buy a few puts at the highs of the day. I think next week we will have a mini crash towards the 200 MA. OI for puts keeps going up for the week of earnings. puts on aapl? brazen! and isn't 200ma something like $187? that's quite a mini-crash! not saying it's impossible... just... why?
but i'm glad, actually, phew... was getting worried when you started get all bullish with $224 september target recently... love you, spongie, you're the best contrarian indicator! I respond because it is fun. The 200MA is 192 and we could hit it but no guarantee. Last quarter we went up to 208 and then dropped before shooting back to 215. RSI was at 70 after poor earnings. The market started to correct already. So I think we will have the similar move to the downside with a quick run into 190’s next week, a rebound to about 200 and then a sharp drop after earnings. The 224 number for aapl is based on some assumptions regarding the low in August and typical recovery. When RSI drops below 30 we usually get at least 20-22% rebound from the lows. When we hit 170 we recovered at least 20% which is an average.If aapl were to hit 184 in August then we could see 220- 224 as the rebound. Lots of ifs. From a FA based on eps and p/e it would put us close to a high p/e of 19.5 which we set last Sept. But given how the SPY is acting and the positions are taken in puts, signs indicate that the whole market wants to correct. We shall see.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,649
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 18, 2019 12:09:28 GMT -8
Nice up day.
...and then I see in my notebook that AAPL is only up 45 cents from Monday's close.
Ahhh, the ups and downs that just don't matter much if you take a long blink.
FWIW, my recollection was a P/E high of 21 last fall. In my notes I have a trailing 12 month earnings of 11.04, and then a closing price of $228.36 on 9-4-18, with the intraday high at $233.47 sometime around there. Yep, that gives a P/E just over 21.
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Post by aaplcrazie on Jul 18, 2019 12:45:46 GMT -8
OT I Say Again OT Launch the Alert 5 The Top Gun Maverick Trailer is out! Looks Insane and most odd, but perhaps a nod to History and Reverence for what once was? Inexplicably in the last couple of seconds there is a shot of a Tomcat banking high over clouds and Mountains………. As someone who spent many years playing on "The Boat" Cats, Traps, and The Break, Topgun holds a special place in my shaped heart. trailers.apple.com/trailers/paramount/top-gun-maverick/
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Post by sponge on Jul 18, 2019 13:48:15 GMT -8
MSFT will lift us all up tomorrow
Opportunity to buy a few more puts cheaper
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Post by therealmercel on Jul 18, 2019 15:42:31 GMT -8
MSFT will lift us all up tomorrow Opportunity to buy a few more puts cheaper Lol. Thanks for the buy, buy, buy signal Batman!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2019 18:23:59 GMT -8
cybart is full of shit... his entire long thesis and apple analysis has been built around how jony ive is the intellectual and spiritual replacement of steve jobs... how industrial design has been elevated within apple... how this will ensure the next 50 years...
back when jony was named CDO and some people saw that for what it was (sign of his diminished role) cybart doubled down on how everything revolves around jony
basically cybart was completely blindsided here and needs to cover his behind... but instead of a mea culpa, it's excuses-excuses (in 4500 words or less )... he's no better than wall st analysts with their price targets... i do like buyback stuff but he should stick to his knitting I only see his free writing, but this is the purest nonsense. Everyone was completely blindsided. I don’t think Cybart predicts stock price at all. However, his track record of earnings predictions is superb, unlike most WS analysts. And if Cybart is full of shit so was Jobs. In Issacson's biography, he quotes Jobs on Ive: “The difference that Jony has made, not only at Apple but in the world, is huge. He is a wickedly intelligent person in all ways. He understands business concepts, marketing concepts. He picks stuff up just like that, click. He understands what we do at our core better than anyone. If I had a spiritual partner at Apple, it’s Jony. Jony and I think up most of the products together and then pull others in and say, ‘Hey, what do you think about this?’ He gets the big picture as well as the most infinitesimal details about each product. And he understands that Apple is a product company. He’s not just a designer. That’s why he works directly for me. He has more operational power than anyone else at Apple except me. There’s no one who can tell him what to do, or to butt out. That’s the way I set it up.” Cybart has always said a large team creates all their products, and he’s explicitly said that goes for Ive as it did for Jobs. Listen to a minute or two beginning at 21:30 here. www.aboveavalon.com/notes/2014/12/11/jony-ive-is-the-most-powerful-person-at-appleCybart in 2014: “Jony has long held a considerable amount of power at Apple. While the last major executive reshuffle in 2012 led to Jony gaining more responsibility by assigning him to lead Human Interface across the company, I don't necessarily look at the change as altering Jony's ultimate power trajectory.” I’ve never even heard anyone I considered serious in following Apple assert that CDO was a lesser position. But certainly if Cybart didn’t think the 2012 position change was a step up he’d not see the 2015 move to CDO a step down, or any step in vertical terms. I'm sure you’re not actually challenging the idea that “industrial design has been elevated within apple”. Neither Cybart nor anyone with any sense would say Apple is guaranteed a 50 year dominance, but if they are to maintain it, for whatever length of time, surely it will be because of the elevation of design and a company culture to maintain this. And if they don’t do this then commoditization cycle will indeed set in and competitors catch up. None of this is anything remotely mystical. But leaders do orchestrate and direct. Probably those who are uncomfortable with the philosophical approach to products and business that both Jobs and Ive, and any number of other of Apple's management, as well as many of their engineers, then they'll also be uncomfortable with some of the analysis of their most perceptive analysts. In my view those are: Horace Dediu, John Gruber, Neil Cybart, and Ben Thompson.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Jul 18, 2019 19:19:50 GMT -8
back when jony was named CDO and some people saw that for what it was (sign of his diminished role) cybart doubled down on how everything revolves around jony I only see his free writing, but this is the purest nonsense. Everyone was completely blindsided.um... NO.
"Jony Ive left four years ago."
"In my estimation, whether Ive intends it or not — and I think he likely does, for what it’s worth — this is the beginning of the end of his time at Apple."
whoa... ben tompson wrote that 4 years ago! maybe prescient, maybe lucky... i dunno, you listed him yourself as one of the influences... i'm just saying it's a contrast to cybart who (the way i read him) thought jony ive will become like a shadow ceo.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2019 20:57:35 GMT -8
um... NO. um ... YES. I've little interest in engaging in semantics over the difference between being blindsided and being surprised. I don't see that something rumored for years as contradicting being blindsided, and in fact when rumors persist for years with no action for fairly obvious reasons it tends to contribute to both. Yet I heard the rumors for years and I was quite surprised over when and how it happened. It was pretty much the same for everyone else I know that's honest. Gruber heard all the rumors too, and even has a few actual sources, and his first reaction was "Wow". And it was the most incidental of the remarks I made, so whatever.
I've also little interest in quibbling over the difference between being the head design guy in the most paradigmatically design driven company in the world and "shadow CEOs". Everyone who knows about families to mom and pop business to large corporations knows about finding the "real power", the same as it ever was. Either Ive's decision making will be completely dispersed through the hopefully deep bench of designers he led, or in fact the way Apple is describing Ive's relationship going forward is how they and Ive want it to be. Though I was skeptical at first because of my background dealing with corporate newspeak and obfuscation, Apple might actually be telling the truth here, and I think that is all I take Cybart to be saying. He may well be right. Right now I'd have to say I suspect he is. But only time will tell, but then again that might even be hard to tell. If I were Apple I'd probably want to stop talking about Ive's direct influence even if he retains a lot of it. Just about everything about Apple is unprecedented, and this is no different.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2019 21:21:02 GMT -8
Got a kick out of this piece named Smoke and Mirrors. ----- So what am I driving at here? Commit to your shots. If your goal is to harvest an equity risk premium and play the averages as cheaply and tax efficiently as possible… then do that. If you want to concentrate your bets in hopes of generating massive gains and you’re comfortable with the idiosyncratic risk that entails… then do that. If you want to employ a barbell or core-satellite structure to balance cheap beta exposure with a selection of (hopefully) substantial alpha generative bets… then do that. Because if you waver, and you combine this and that and the other philosophy because you’re simultaneously afraid of looking too different and not differentiated enough… then you’re going to end up with something like the world’s most expensive index fund.
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