chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,431
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Post by chinacat on Jul 25, 2019 5:12:05 GMT -8
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Post by therealmercel on Jul 25, 2019 7:09:47 GMT -8
Anyone bullish on June earnings and guidance? I'm neutral, at best. No price predictions.
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Post by sponge on Jul 25, 2019 8:06:08 GMT -8
Someone just bought or sold $250k worth of 185 puts for next week.
Numbers would have to be pretty bad to drop 12% from here for that person to double their money.
Margins and profits will be down simply because they are selling the less expensive phones. So revenues may be strong and guidance fairly decent.
I think the US economy despite a slowdown is still very strong. It will be a different story Q1 and Q2 next year. So in the mean time Apple will do fine the next Q which will help to offset drops in other countries.
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Post by PikesPique on Jul 25, 2019 8:44:36 GMT -8
My guess would be a sale. Either pick up a lot of cheap shares or collect some nice premium.
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Post by lulli on Jul 25, 2019 9:04:44 GMT -8
Someone just bought or sold $250k worth of 185 puts for next week. Numbers would have to be pretty bad to drop 12% from here for that person to double their money. The choice behind the transaction might indeed have been from someone who wanted the puts, but don't assume that that same someone intends to keep the puts until after the earning release. They will likely be sold early next week, or at least transformed into a spread. I often do this kind of things as an insurance, but I never even think about holding puts until expiration.
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ems
Member
Posts: 97
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Post by ems on Jul 25, 2019 9:15:30 GMT -8
it's likely they are part of a larger strategy hedge with multi-leg option plays. Not too many people would just straight up buy/sell that amount of puts without some kind of hedge, that's a huge YOLO otherwise.
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Post by longsince98 on Jul 25, 2019 9:29:54 GMT -8
My guess would be a sale. Either pick up a lot of cheap shares or collect some nice premium. For those of you who are bearish post earnings, I would really appreciate if you can lay out some of your logic. The reason I ask is because in all the years I’ve been in Apple, there usually is a run up till the iPhone announcement (from what I recall). So I always view this period as the best time to invest I would love to hear the opposing view points. Thanks
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Post by sponge on Jul 25, 2019 11:59:59 GMT -8
Volume is very low today
Not a bullish sign for the future
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,353
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Post by bud777 on Jul 25, 2019 12:14:53 GMT -8
If somebody bought, somebody else sold
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jul 25, 2019 12:28:46 GMT -8
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Post by sponge on Jul 25, 2019 13:01:50 GMT -8
I am excited about the potential 5G has and I am glad Apple bought Intel’s modem division.
What I can’t figure out is what more can Apple do with it if Intel was not successful. They are bringing the same talent on board, so how does changing ownership increase development?
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Post by sponge on Jul 25, 2019 13:03:19 GMT -8
If somebody bought, somebody else sold Which means someone pocketed that money and keep it if Apple simply stays above 185. We will find out in one week.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jul 25, 2019 13:07:44 GMT -8
AAPL flat after hours, INTC up 6%
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ems
Member
Posts: 97
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Post by ems on Jul 25, 2019 13:08:51 GMT -8
The modem business does look like a good purchase, clearly they saw some value there. It gives them multiple options for modems now: their existing QCOM deal for now and then whatever they want for the future with their own modems.
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Post by dreamRaj on Jul 25, 2019 13:34:20 GMT -8
AMZN got pinned down AH while GOOG shot up a hundred bucks!
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Jul 25, 2019 14:01:21 GMT -8
AAPL flat after hours, INTC up 6%
well intc released their earnings, to be fair!
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Jul 25, 2019 14:06:23 GMT -8
AMZN got pinned down AH while GOOG shot up a hundred bucks!
more impressively... that's over 9% jump off $800b market cap! so that's like $70-72b jump in value!
aapl is $950B, so a 72b jump would be 7.5%! aapl hasn't had a move like that to the upside in years... may have had a couple like that to the downside though (like 9-10% down on january 3rd
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,557
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Post by mark on Jul 25, 2019 14:10:31 GMT -8
Assuming the modems are eventually interchangeable (at least to the extent necessary that the customer can't tell the difference between them), and assuming that Qualcomm wants to make a profit of $20-30 on each chipset, that's a direct cost reduction to Apple of about $20-30 per 5G phone sometime in the future. If they make 200M 5G phones a year someday soon, that's billions in cost savings. Now obviously there will be costs involved, plenty of capital investment, the $1B up front to buy the division from Intel, and assorted other costs, but still it seems like it is likely to be a good financial choice.
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Post by therealmercel on Jul 25, 2019 17:04:19 GMT -8
I’m now 70% cash. Highest I’ve been in a year.
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benoir
fire starter
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Post by benoir on Jul 25, 2019 17:08:05 GMT -8
I am excited about the potential 5G has and I am glad Apple bought Intel’s modem division. What I can’t figure out is what more can Apple do with it if Intel was not successful. They are bringing the same talent on board, so how does changing ownership increase development? Spongey, so clearly this acquisition is a long term play and I think (an assumption) that you see it that way too. With an acquisition this big Cook was clearly involved, as the Chief Executive Officer. So Cook, by inference, has made an executive decision that is likely to have long term benefits to investors in AAPL. Is that the way you see it?
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,353
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Post by bud777 on Jul 25, 2019 17:08:24 GMT -8
I think that the holy grail in the phone business is solid worldwide connectivity 24/7. This seems impossible but with low earth orbit satellite networks becoming a reality, it might not. Imagine the possibilities if Apple had that network and controlled the modems needed to access it. Services would go through the roof. I have wondered why Apple hasn't gone after this with SpaceX. Apple could certainly fund it. A solid hardware communications infrastructure has been the missing link. Isn't wonderful what you can imagine when you are unencumbered by any real knowledge of the limitations of technology?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 25, 2019 17:43:13 GMT -8
I am excited about the potential 5G has and I am glad Apple bought Intel’s modem division. What I can’t figure out is what more can Apple do with it if Intel was not successful. They are bringing the same talent on board, so how does changing ownership increase development? Don’t fall for Qualcommie propaganda. Don’t mysticize success and failure. Intel failed because there is no future for thin modems. The better question would be why do you think Apple will fail to make their own SoC with integrated modems when Samsung and Huawei succeeded? And why has Samsung not sold their Exynos SoC into North America until now, if they're actually doing it? Probably because of fear of being sued and getting their chip supply cutoff for their other stuff. Don’t underestimate the effectiveness of bad faith legal shenanigans that Qualcomm engaged in over CDMA. The simple fact is that Qualcomm has been undermining their licensees for 20 years. It’s a matter of public record they’ve forced TI and Broadcom to litigate for years to clear themselves over nothing more than lies and bad faith. These are large and powerful companies. I tired of giving citations in other forums because people don’t care, but it’s all there and easily accessible. Blatant and widespread lying that shook the legal profession in the case of Broadcom. Apple will succeed because they don’t care how long it takes or how much it costs. Integrated systems that are small and power efficient is what virtually their entire product line’s technical lead depends on. It’s what future products depend on. That is true of no other company but their competitors Samsung and Huawei. If you listen to Qualcommie propaganda you’ll notice a striking similarity to the French belief in the solidity of the Maginot Line and their own élan that would give them the edge over the Germans. They’re desperate for it to be true. They say: “The RF-front end for 5G is exponentially more complex”, blah, blah, blah. Maybe so, but why would engineers under Qualcomm’s roof be so much better qualified to deal with this complexity as opposed to Qorvo or Skyworks or someone else? Company culture? Well, if you don’t care how much it costs to acquire the talent to make it a part of your company culture then there you go. BTW, ask Google what happens when you let someone else design your SoC unless your product is a cash cow. arstechnica.com/gadgets/2019/01/googles-fossil-deal-wont-save-wear-os/“Life can be much broader once you discover one simple fact: Everything around you that you call life was made up by people that were no smarter than you and you can change it, you can influence it, you can build your own things that other people can use.” –Steve Jobs
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 25, 2019 18:14:41 GMT -8
I think that the holy grail in the phone business is solid worldwide connectivity 24/7. This seems impossible but with low earth orbit satellite networks becoming a reality, it might not. Imagine the possibilities if Apple had that network and controlled the modems needed to access it. Services would go through the roof. I have wondered why Apple hasn't gone after this with SpaceX. Apple could certainly fund it. A solid hardware communications infrastructure has been the missing link. Isn't wonderful what you can imagine when you are unencumbered by any real knowledge of the limitations of technology? I think people don't stop and think about how much of their world already is covered by wireless. Wireless means more than one thing. To an IT guy like me it means wifi, not cellular data. But they're both wireless of course. You're hearing of 5G small cells? Yeah, those are the functional equivalent of wifi access points. With the onset of 5G I think the Qualcommies have subtly trained people to think wireless means cellular only, and it will displace wifi. I think that's nonsense. In the very long run no one knows. I have the cheapest cellular data plan because I'm seldom out of range of a wifi hotspot. The shift from wired to wifi has been an incredible thing, but the idea that we're all going to pile into cellular internet now I think is pure hype. The truth is that until it becomes cheap it won't matter. And that won't be anytime soon. And even if it is, it will still have to compete with other forms of wireless, which currently carry the majority of traffic. And don't discount the possibility of hybrid systems that are neither 5G nor wifi that may be competing to deliver data to us. wifinowevents.com/news-and-blog/tech-giants-pitch-very-low-power-6-ghz-wi-fi-to-the-fcc/wifinowevents.com/news-and-blog/starrys-5g-style-broadband-on-track-to-cover-40-million-us-households/
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stub
Member
The fix is in. Be patient. Don't panic.
Posts: 300
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Post by stub on Jul 25, 2019 18:22:31 GMT -8
I think that the holy grail in the phone business is solid worldwide connectivity 24/7. This seems impossible but with low earth orbit satellite networks becoming a reality, it might not. Imagine the possibilities if Apple had that network and controlled the modems needed to access it. Services would go through the roof. I have wondered why Apple hasn't gone after this with SpaceX. Apple could certainly fund it. A solid hardware communications infrastructure has been the missing link. Isn't wonderful what you can imagine when you are unencumbered by any real knowledge of the limitations of technology? I think people don't stop and think about how much of their world already is covered by wireless. Wireless means more than one thing. To an IT guy like me it means wifi, not cellular data. But they're both wireless of course. You're hearing of 5G small cells? Yeah, those are the functional equivalent of wifi access points. With the onset of 5G I think the Qualcommies have subtly trained people to think wireless means cellular only, and it will displace wifi. I think that's nonsense. In the very long run no one knows. I have the cheapest cellular data plan because I'm seldom out of range of a wifi hotspot. The shift from wired to wifi has been an incredible thing, but the idea that we're all going to pile into cellular internet now I think is pure hype. The truth is that until it becomes cheap it won't matter. And that won't be anytime soon. And even if it is, it will still have to compete with other forms of wireless, which currently carry the majority of traffic. And don't discount the possibility of hybrid systems that are neither 5G nor wifi that may be competing to deliver data to us. wifinowevents.com/news-and-blog/tech-giants-pitch-very-low-power-6-ghz-wi-fi-to-the-fcc/wifinowevents.com/news-and-blog/starrys-5g-style-broadband-on-track-to-cover-40-million-us-households/Excellent points! thx for the insight.
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SomeJuan
Member
Taking a nap…
Posts: 321
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Post by SomeJuan on Jul 25, 2019 18:26:16 GMT -8
Bud has it right.
AAPL signed an agreement with QCOM on the cusp of QCOM taking it in the shorts..Tim et al, were aware of this. It all comes down to IP. Tim got what he wanted, IP, longevity, shared IP, and all of INTC, and all of the platers. Judge Lucy is unhappy, QCOM has been predatory. That is over, signed sealed and delivered.
Almost all IP firms, the clock strikes mid nite , the zenith! QCOM, has past their zenith. The courts agree, the verdict is set.
Fast forward, AAPL made a judicious fold, knowing where the dust will settle. They have licenses well into the future with QCOM, and it is inclusive of FRAND, and license sharing. Including IP now, and into the future. 7 billion buys worlds. QCOM is on a spin, to the likes of which most do not know.
1 measly billion gets 2200 of the greatest minds, might I say equal to San Diego.
Tim is famous, he says we need to control our destiny, with in house R&D, and the rocket ship just engaged.
What a great investment, from my humble. Opinion.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 25, 2019 18:52:53 GMT -8
Bud has it right. AAPL signed an agreement with QCOM on the cusp of QCOM taking it in the shorts..Tim et al, were aware of this. It all comes down to IP. Tim got what he wanted, IP, longevity, shared IP, and all of INTC, and all of the platers. Judge Lucy is unhappy, QCOM has been predatory. That is over, signed sealed and delivered. Almost all IP firms, the clock strikes mid nite , the zenith! QCOM, has past their zenith. The courts agree, the verdict is set. Fast forward, AAPL made a judicious fold, knowing where the dust will settle. They have licenses well into the future with QCOM, and it is inclusive of FRAND, and license sharing. Including IP now, and into the future. 7 billion buys worlds. QCOM is on a spin, to the likes of which most do not know. 1 measly billion gets 2200 of the greatest minds, might I say equal to San Diego. Tim is famous, he says we need to control our destiny, with in house R&D, and the rocket ship just engaged. What a great investment, from my humble. Opinion. Agreed. The idea that Apple folded was nonsense. They settled at the time of maximum uncertainty, and though Qualcomm is a bad actor it isn't their battle to fight as long as they get what they need. I don't think Koh actually cares that Apple settled. I don't think it has any effect whatever on the stay or appeal. And Apple has worked with Intel for years so they know exactly what they're getting and even who they're getting.
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Post by sponge on Jul 25, 2019 21:25:08 GMT -8
We all can only speculate. There must be some tech or talent that Apple has, combined with long term plans that can only see success by buying up this additional IP and talent. I have a feeling it may take longer for this to become reality however.
I thought buying Beats for $3 Billion was a good idea at the time. In retrospect I think they could have achieved the same success with Apple Music and their own headphones without spending so much.
The same may apply here, and we may never know. It is easy to throw around billions when you have billions in cash. Intc went up because of half decent earnings after low ball expectations by WS. But I think the market seems happier they got $1 billion for something that may only be worth 1/4 of that.
It just makes little sense for Intel to sell this amazing opportunity given the importance of 5G in the next 10 years.
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Jul 26, 2019 3:28:44 GMT -8
Thanks everyone for this great eye opening discussion.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2019 8:09:21 GMT -8
It just makes little sense for Intel to sell this amazing opportunity given the importance of 5G in the next 10 years. The importance of 5G in any near-term is way overhyped. 4G isn't even done evolving. I wouldn't be surprised if the 1st product Apple produces is an SoC with integrated 4G LTE for the watch. That would be sweet.
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SomeJuan
Member
Taking a nap…
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Post by SomeJuan on Jul 26, 2019 15:30:07 GMT -8
Sponge,
Satellites , ubiquites satellites!.
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