chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,431
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Post by chinacat on Aug 5, 2019 4:24:36 GMT -8
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Post by osx10 on Aug 5, 2019 5:59:50 GMT -8
I am sure I am not the only one trying gauge this mess and where the pain stops.
Maybe the 200 day around 186.xx?
Question is "does Trump's twitter account override all technicals?
Definitely seems to override fundamentals.
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benoir
fire starter
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Posts: 1,318
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Post by benoir on Aug 5, 2019 6:02:33 GMT -8
A sea of red... Can’t see any green anywhere Hope Apple is making the most of this absurd situation.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,113
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Post by Dave on Aug 5, 2019 6:04:46 GMT -8
Thanks Sponge for the heads up. You nailed it.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,431
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Post by chinacat on Aug 5, 2019 6:12:56 GMT -8
Thanks Sponge for the heads up. You nailed it. Just curious...did you actually take an investment action based on the information, or are you just less panicked today because of the heads up?
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Post by macster on Aug 5, 2019 6:15:33 GMT -8
Question is "does Trump's twitter account override all technicals? Definitely seems to override fundamentals. DOW PLUNGES AS CHINA ESCALATES TRADE WAR... Lets yuan break key level first time in decade... Hurls devaluation back in Trump's face... Retaliation '11' on Scale of 1 to 10...
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Post by rmhe1999 on Aug 5, 2019 6:16:08 GMT -8
Thanks Sponge for the heads up. You nailed it. There is no other way for me to read this comment than with a heavy dose of sarcasm. Please tell me I'm correct.
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Post by gtrplyr on Aug 5, 2019 6:26:46 GMT -8
Any information on the upcoming Apple Card? I heard August but the sooner the better .....
Cheers to the longs
EDIT: Just looked and no release date as of yet. I did sign up for info so I'm really hoping this happens in time to help the SP as this part of the business will not be in the line of fire with regards to this trade war.
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Post by sponge on Aug 5, 2019 6:30:57 GMT -8
I just predicted a downturn based on technicals. Believe it or not I am still in cash. May jump in tomorrow with puts.
I think this is the week that we see the bottom around 180. OI for SPY puts are dropping fast for next week. As usual the extremes in the moves tend to happen a week before OE.
Given the extreme of the MACD going negative, I don’t see us seeing 200 for at least 30 days. We are at the beginning of a long bearish cycle
RSI hit 38 today and I see it dropping below 30 by end of the week.
Nothing is guaranteed
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Post by gtrplyr on Aug 5, 2019 6:34:55 GMT -8
I am sure I am not the only one trying gauge this mess and where the pain stops. Question is "does Trump's twitter account override all technicals? Without question ... YES. A positive report regarding demand for Apple's new credit card would certainly help the pressure of the trade war but regardless we are at the mercy of the macros.
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Post by artman1033 on Aug 5, 2019 6:42:53 GMT -8
China "manipulated" their currency according to news sources. China LOWERS the value of the Yuan to the Dollar (Does anyone think OUR USA does NOT try everything to manipulate the DOLLAR to prop it up with TRILLION Dollar deficits and LONG term debt?)
SOOOO........... pays less for assembling its products in China and for parts made in China.
Chinese customers pay MORE for products. whoop-de-do
Tariffs on Chinese products bring in BILLIONS to USA.
hmmmm.
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Post by macster on Aug 5, 2019 6:46:03 GMT -8
I am sure I am not the only one trying gauge this mess and where the pain stops. Question is "does Trump's twitter account override all technicals? Without question ... YES. The administration announced the possible additional tariffs despite a Trump tweet. Trump's tweets are official, made legitimate because of the mainstream media who exercise their ability to color him with known bias. The ongoing trade war is a bitch and I hate it when the stock drops so regularly. It's sickening. But...China is the reason for the season. DOW PLUNGES AS CHINA ESCALATES TRADE WAR... Lets yuan break key level first time in decade... Hurls devaluation back in Trump's face... Retaliation '11' on Scale of 1 to 10...
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Post by sponge on Aug 5, 2019 6:53:59 GMT -8
We are below the 50 MA which signals serious caution with more selling on the way.
We usually drop below the 200 MA at this point which happens to be about 186.
If by earnings in Oct we are below the 200 and we get bad guidance then we will see my 145 in short order.
All the moves between now and the new iPhone have nothing to do with Apple but everything to do with where the SPY and QQQ are headed.
All the trade drama is just noise to justify the buying and selling. Apple was up 40% YTD. The big boys have been taking profits since 6/20 when aapl was at 200.
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Aug 5, 2019 7:02:05 GMT -8
China "manipulated" their currency according to news sources. China LOWERS the value of the Yuan to the Dollar (Does anyone think OUR USA does NOT try everything to manipulate the DOLLAR to prop it up with TRILLION Dollar deficits and LONG term debt?) SOOOO........... pays less for assembling its products in China and for parts made in China. Chinese customers pay MORE for products. whoop-de-do Tariffs on Chinese products bring in BILLIONS to USA. hmmmm. Since a moderator brought this up in this thread, I'll respond. trump certainly says tariffs on Chinese products bring in $billions to US, but trump lies more than any other president. Most everybody else agrees that it is US consumers who pay the tariffs, that these tariffs are not a source of revenue for our country. artman, can you show us a source for your comment?
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Post by sponge on Aug 5, 2019 7:14:30 GMT -8
Inflation is muted. Despite the tariffs most consumers are not paying any more for their goods that are imported from China. US profits have been solid with a slight downturn.
Chinese manufactures have lowered their prices to offset the tariffs and US companies are not being forced to pass them on to consumers.
Yes the US importer is paying for the tariff increase but it is offset by lower prices from the other side. So the Chinese are the ones paying for the tariffs.
No link to actual details but just using common knowledge and data available to everyone.
Side note. I see TC resigning from Apple in the next 7 years and running for CA governorship. He is much too political in all of his tweets not to aspire to become an actual politician. He is in essence the Donald Trump of Twitter for the socialist side.
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Post by artman1033 on Aug 5, 2019 7:26:08 GMT -8
Inflation is muted. Despite the tariffs most consumers are not paying any more for their goods that are imported from China. US profits have been solid with a slight downturn. Chinese manufactures have lowered their prices to offset the tariffs and US companies are not being forced to pass them on to consumers. Yes the US importer is paying for the tariff increase but it is offset by lower prices from the other side. So the Chinese are the ones paying for the tariffs. No link to actual details but just using common knowledge and data available to everyone. . I agree with the GREAT KITCHEN CLEAN UP TOOL AND the quote above......
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Post by macster on Aug 5, 2019 7:29:01 GMT -8
WSJ reports...
Beijing Risks Economic Self-Harm by Weaponizing the Yuan The yuan has weakened past seven to the U.S. dollar for the first time in over a decade, which carries more risks for Beijing than Washington
Mike BirdUpdated Aug. 5, 2019 1:34 am ET The People’s Bank of China, which has defended seven to the dollar previously, undoubtedly allowed the currency to weaken in response to President Trump’s new tariff threat Thursday. The central bank Monday set the midpoint of the yuan’s daily trading band sharply weaker. Once the spot rate breached seven shortly thereafter, the PBOC issued a statement saying the currency had weakened under the influence of “protectionist measures and expectations of further tariffs against China.”
A weaker yuan carries benefits: all else being equal, it makes the country’s goods more attractively priced abroad, and would widen the cavernous U.S. trade deficit with Beijing, a personal bugbear of President Trump.
But breaking levels previously thought unbreakable, or which investors believed would be defended, carries serious risks too.
Bundles of 100 yuan notes. The Chinese currency weakened against the U.S. dollar on Monday, breaching the 7 yuan mark for the first time in more than 10 years. Photo: johannes eisele/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images The PBOC seems confident that capital controls are less leaky than in 2015-2016, when the last period of sharp yuan weakness produced the largest episode of capital flight in history, according to the Institute of International Finance. At that time, the country’s foreign-exchange reserves tumbled by around $1 trillion in the central bank’s attempt to stem the flood of nervous investors shifting money overseas.
Traders and investors also crowd around such symbolic prices for protection. Options and futures are priced and sold with that presumptive stability in mind. That can add to wild moves after a shift begins.
What’s more, debt denominated in foreign currencies has accumulated with the illusion of currency stability.
In China, that’s most true among the heavily leveraged property developers, which have become the driving force in the dollar high-yield-bond market in Asia, borrowing record amounts this year as expectations for higher U.S. interest rates slumped. A FTSE index of such debt has risen in size by 50% in 2019.
According to credit ratings firm Moody’s, $33.8 billion of onshore and $19.3 billion in offshore bonds issued by developers either mature or become subject to put options—meaning investors can demand early repayment—in the next year.
Several hundred minor players have already been bankrupted this year: wider failures could have a knock-on impact through an already fragile financial system, parts of which are short of dollars already. Last month, the government restrained the ability of developers to issue offshore bonds for anything other than refinancing maturing dollar debt, perhaps in anticipation of currency weakness.
All of that suggests that even if seven is no longer the magic number for the PBOC, policy makers will want to prevent the yuan from weakening too far.
A short, sharp depreciation could be beneficial to the Chinese negotiating position, but if the fall takes on a momentum of its own, the shift will undoubtedly be far more painful in Beijing than Washington.
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Post by sponge on Aug 5, 2019 7:38:43 GMT -8
word of caution for bears and good news for bulls. the SPY MFI is actually starting to trend slightly upward and the QQQ just has two more days to do the same.
There is a small chance to we actually may not drop as much if the SPY reverses in three days.
Tomorrow will be key if we close below the 50MA.
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Post by silkstone on Aug 5, 2019 7:40:59 GMT -8
Thanks Sponge for the heads up. You nailed it. Yep, thanks, a broken clock is right two times every day.
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Post by silkstone on Aug 5, 2019 7:53:05 GMT -8
word of caution for bears and good news for bulls. the SPY MFI is actually starting to trend slightly upward and the QQQ just has two more days to do the same. There is a small chance to we actually may not drop as much if the SPY reverses in three days. Tomorrow will be key if we close below the 50MA. Okay sure thing, just let us know when you load up on puts so I can run out and game the move. You must have made a killing on the parabolic fall we had today and if not, why not ? Your supposed to be be the great seer, the stable genius.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,431
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Post by chinacat on Aug 5, 2019 7:58:17 GMT -8
Thanks Sponge for the heads up. You nailed it. Just curious...did you actually take an investment action based on the information, or are you just less panicked today because of the heads up? Dave, this was not sarcasm. I am genuinely interested to understand your approach.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,431
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Post by chinacat on Aug 5, 2019 8:06:12 GMT -8
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ems
Member
Posts: 97
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Post by ems on Aug 5, 2019 8:23:18 GMT -8
We would be at $250 now if not for the orange occupant and his nonsense. Re: tariffs and the self-inflicted trade "war" - China is not going to lose, they take the long approach, and even if it appears they might be losing/compromising, in reality they won't be. They have more patience and tools at their disposal, and the last thing they will do is lose face to drumpf.
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Post by rickag on Aug 5, 2019 8:37:35 GMT -8
Strange, I clearly remember Trump mentioning a few days ago that China devaluation the yuan would affect the tariffs and who pays the price. Seems like he foresaw the devaluation coming days before it happened.
Maybe I misunderstand, China devalues the yuan so their product’s price sold here don’t increase due to the tariffs? Who pays the tariff?
Pardon my ignorance I freely admit to.
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Post by artman1033 on Aug 5, 2019 8:40:02 GMT -8
We would be at $250 now if not for the orange occupant and his nonsense. Re: tariffs and the self-inflicted trade "war" - China is not going to lose, they take the long approach, and even if it appears they might be losing/compromising, in reality they won't be. They have more patience and tools at their disposal, and the last thing they will do is lose face to drumpf. ANOTHER great post by the lady ems................ (can't stop calling POTUS names?) AS a college educated lady, perhaps you can educate us. What approach works with trade with China? Which POTUS in the last 100 years did it best?
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Post by gtrplyr on Aug 5, 2019 8:43:53 GMT -8
Strange, I clearly remember Trump mentioning a few days ago that China devaluation the yuan would affect the tariffs and who pays the price. Seems like he foresaw the devaluation coming days before it happened. Maybe I misunderstand, China devalues the yuan so their product’s price sold here don’t increase due to the tariffs? Who pays the tariff? Pardon my ignorance I freely admit to. While your example makes sense, it's also a bit simplistic. Everyone on this board understands the importance of China's markets with the obvious example being Apple. Apple's products/services just got more expensive for the average Chinese consumer. Wanna go ask some farmers who pays the tariffs? This is a losing game for BOTH sides ... the big question is who can take more pain and I'd say the jury is out of that one BUT the Chinese do not have a major election coming up next year. I'd also argue that the average Chinese citizen is very used to going without .... anyone really into this game of financial chicken?
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,113
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Post by Dave on Aug 5, 2019 8:58:53 GMT -8
Just curious...did you actually take an investment action based on the information, or are you just less panicked today because of the heads up? Dave, this was not sarcasm. I am genuinely interested to understand your approach. I sold all aapl shares and leaps last Friday. I’m still holding amzn leaps which are in the red, wishing that I had also sold them. Once the amazon leaps start to green up some they’ll likely be sold too. Take the money and run.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,113
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Post by Dave on Aug 5, 2019 9:03:39 GMT -8
Question: Why is it that some people love taxes and regulations but hate tariffs?
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Post by sponge on Aug 5, 2019 9:06:24 GMT -8
The selling continues
It looks like we will get my 7% flush early.
It is interesting but not surprising that most socialists on this board blame Trump for this selloff and defend, support, and root for the communist China.
I blame TC for making a deal with them that is now coming back to bite his company.
Had we developed manufacturing in other countries our stock would be trading more inline with MSFT right now.
Still very content to be in cash. Plenty of time to make money on puts and calls in the next 30 days.
Now I look forward to Trump slapping another 15% tariffs in Nov. so TC will finally get the message to move manufacturing out instead of claiming in conference calls that everything will be fine.
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Post by rickag on Aug 5, 2019 9:12:00 GMT -8
Strange, I clearly remember Trump mentioning a few days ago that China devaluation the yuan would affect the tariffs and who pays the price. Seems like he foresaw the devaluation coming days before it happened. Maybe I misunderstand, China devalues the yuan so their product’s price sold here don’t increase due to the tariffs? Who pays the tariff? Pardon my ignorance I freely admit to. While your example makes sense, it's also a bit simplistic. Everyone on this board understands the importance of China's markets with the obvious example being Apple. Apple's products/services just got more expensive for the average Chinese consumer. Wanna go ask some farmers who pays the tariffs? This is a losing game for BOTH sides ... the big question is who can take more pain and I'd say the jury is out of that one BUT the Chinese do not have a major election coming up next year. I'd also argue that the average Chinese citizen is very used to going without .... anyone really into this game of financial chicken? Thanks for the reply. Seems every import from any country just got more expensive in China as the yuan was devalued. The US has and has had a significant trade deficit with China as much the rest of the industrialized nations. Not sure who has the most leverage at this time, I am not an economist by any stretch of imagination. edit: spelling, me - so old so embarrassed
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